New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills January 5th 2025
The Patriots are +123 on the money line as they host the Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Bills are favored at -146 on the money line and -2.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is set at 38 points for this week 18 AFC East matchup. You can catch this one on CBS.
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Buffalo vs. New England Key Information
- Teams: Bills at Patriots
- Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough
- Date: Sunday, January 5th
- Betting Odds BUF -146 | NE +123 O/U 38
The Bills Can Win If…
With a 13-3 record, the Bills have a 100% chance of winning the AFC East and making the playoffs. They are currently on a three-game winning streak, including a 40-14 victory over the Jets in week 17. Buffalo was a 10.5-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 10-6 this season.
Our power rankings have the Bills 4th heading into week 18, where they’ll be on the road against the Patriots. Buffalo is 5-3 on the road and 8-0 at home this season. In division games, they are 5-0, and they have a 9-2 record in conference play.
Heading into week 18, the Bills are 3rd in our offensive power rankings. They rank 2nd in the NFL in points per game (31.8) and 9th in passing yards per game (234.1), despite being 25th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 131.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 9th in the league. Buffalo is 6th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (44.4%) and ranks 4th in red zone attempts, but they are 31st in red zone conversion percentage.
Josh Allen threw for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns (16/27) in week 17, finishing with a passer rating of 104. James Cook led the team with 53 rushing yards on 15 carries, while Tyrell Shavers had a 69-yard reception. Buffalo scored 21 points in the 3rd quarter against the Jets and converted 8 of 14 3rd-down attempts.
In their 40-14 win over the Jets, the Buffalo Bills’ defense forced two interceptions and came away with four sacks. Despite giving up 112 rushing yards on 21 attempts, they held the Jets to 169 yards passing. The Jets finished with a completion percentage of 71.9% and converted on 44.4% of their third down attempts.
Buffalo’s defense also allowed two passing touchdowns in the game. They put pressure on the quarterback with four additional hits and tackles for loss compared to the Jets.
- Buffalo will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
- The Bills have gone 9-1 over their last ten regular season games. Their record vs the spread sits at 7-3 in these matchups, while posting a 7-3 over-under mark.
The Patriots Can Win If…
Heading into week 18 against the Bills, the Patriots are on a six-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-13. New England ranks 27th in our power rankings and has a -8.4 scoring margin this season. They are 6-9-1 against the spread, having been underdogs in all of their games. Their O/U record is 10-6, with their games averaging 41.7 points.
After beating the Bears in week 10, the Patriots have lost six straight, including a 33-point loss to the Chargers in week 17. They were unable to cover the 6-point spread in that game. In week 16, they covered as 14-point underdogs in a 24-21 loss to the Bills.
Heading into week 18, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 27th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.6, and 30th in yards per game, with 290.9. New England ranks 22nd in passing attempts but is last in passing yards per game, with 172.6. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, averaging 118.2.
In week 17, the Patriots scored just 7 points in their loss to the Chargers, with all of them coming in the 2nd quarter. Drake Maye threw for 117 yards and a touchdown, going 12/22 and posting an 84 passer rating. New England struggled on 3rd down, converting only 2 of 10 attempts. DeMario Douglas led the team with 46 receiving yards, and Antonio Gibson rushed for 63 yards on 12 carries.
In their 40-7 loss to the Chargers, the Patriots’ defense struggled to generate any pressure, failing to record a single sack. The defense allowed the Chargers to convert on 58.8% of their third down attempts and gave up 428 total yards. New England also allowed 147 rushing yards on 37 attempts and 281 passing yards, with the Chargers completing 65% of their passes and averaging 7 yards per attempt through the air. The Patriots also gave up three passing touchdowns.
The Patriots’ defense had a tough time on early downs, as they didn’t record any quarterback hits and had a negative tackles for loss differential. Their inability to disrupt the Chargers’ offense contributed to their struggles on third downs.
- Over their last three regular season games, the Patriots have gone 0-3 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 3-0 on the over-under.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Patriots have gone 1-9 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 2-6-2 and an over-under mark of 7-3.
The Lean
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Patriots to cover as home underdogs in this week 18 matchup between the Bills and Patriots. Right now, the point spread lines have the Bills as 2.5-point favorites, but we have the Patriots winning 23-18.
For this game, we like the Patriots to cover and win vs. the spread. As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 38 points, we are leaning towards the over, with a projected combined score of 41 points.
Patriots Aim to Upset Bills Despite No. 1 Draft Pick Implications
The New England Patriots are set to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Foxborough, Mass., aiming to close their season on a high note despite being in line for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. At 3-13, the Patriots are guaranteed the No. 1 overall pick if they lose, but head coach Jerod Mayo insists his team is focused solely on winning.
Patriots Prioritize Momentum Over Draft Position
“I’ve never been a part of a team, as a player or as a coach, going into a game not wanting to win,” Mayo said. “We want to finish strong and build momentum for the offseason.”
Rookie quarterback Drake Maye, the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is expected to start if his right hand injury allows. Maye has been a limited participant in practice, leaving the door open for fellow rookie Joe Milton III to take snaps if necessary.
The Patriots are reeling from a six-game losing streak, including a 40-7 blowout loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week. In that game, Maye struggled, completing just 12 of 22 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown, as New England managed only 181 total yards and 11 first downs.
Bills Balancing Playoff Prep and Rest
The Bills (13-3) secured the AFC’s No. 2 seed after a dominant 40-14 win over the New York Jets. Quarterback Josh Allen accounted for three touchdowns in the victory, while the Buffalo defense held New York scoreless until late in the fourth quarter.
With their playoff position set, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott plans to mix starters with backups against New England.
“You’ll see some starters out there playing, and you’ll see some other players who we want to take a good look at,” McDermott said, adding that Allen will start but could be pulled early.
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Injury Reports
The Bills have some injury concerns, with linebacker Terrel Bernard (leg) missing practice and safeties Damar Hamlin (ribs) and Taylor Rapp (neck) limited.
The Patriots are dealing with several injuries of their own. Wide receivers Kayshon Boutte (illness) and Ja’Lynn Polk (shoulder), center Ben Brown (concussion), and cornerback Christian Gonzalez (concussion) missed Wednesday’s practice. Nine others, including tight end Hunter Henry (foot) and safety Kyle Dugger (ankle/quadricep), were limited.
What’s at Stake
For Buffalo, the game is a tune-up for the postseason, while New England seeks to end a tumultuous season on a positive note. The Bills defeated the Patriots 24-21 just two weeks ago, and the Patriots will need a much-improved performance to exact revenge.