New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts December 1st 2024

The Patriots are the underdog at +128 on the money line as they host the Colts at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st. The Colts are favored on the road with a money line of -151 and a point spread of -2.5. The over/under line is set at 42.5 points for this week 13 AFC matchup. You can watch this one on CBS.

Indianapolis vs. New England Key Information

• Teams: Colts at Patriots
• Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds IND -151 | NE +128 O/U 42.5

The Colts Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the Colts are 5-7, putting them 2nd in the AFC South. They have a 1-3 record in the division and are 4-4 in conference play. Our projections give them a 22.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 7.4% chance of winning the division. Indianapolis is 25th in our NFL power rankings.

Against the spread, the Colts are 8-4 this season, with a +2.7 scoring margin. They are 6-3 as underdogs and 2-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 5-7, with their games averaging 43 points compared to an average line of 44.8.

Heading into week 13, the Colts rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are currently 20th in the NFL in points per game (20.2) and 22nd in yards per game (316.3). Indianapolis is 23rd in passing attempts, with 199.7 passing yards per game, and they rank 21st in rushing attempts, averaging 116.7 rushing yards per game. On third down, the Colts are 23rd in the league, converting 36% of their attempts, but they rank 10th in red zone attempts and 16th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 12, the Colts struggled offensively, scoring just 6 points in a loss to the Lions, with all of their points coming in the first half. Anthony Richardson threw for 172 yards on 11/28 passing, while Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 96 receiving yards. Richardson also led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 10 carries.

In their 24-6 loss to the Lions, the Colts’ defense allowed 390 total yards and 137 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Despite this, they did manage to record three sacks and held Detroit to 4.2 yards per attempt on the ground. The passing game was 26 completions for 253 yards, with a 72.2% completion rate. Indianapolis struggled on third downs, allowing the Lions to convert 60% of their chances.

• The Colts have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Colts have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Patriots Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the Patriots sit 30th in our power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. New England is 3-9 on the season and has lost two straight games, including a 34-15 defeat to the Dolphins in week 12. The Patriots were 7.5-point underdogs in that game and failed to cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 4-7-1. They’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far this season.

New England is 1-4 at home and 2-5 on the road this year. In division play, they are 1-3, and they are 2-6 against AFC opponents. The over has hit in the Patriots’ last two games, and their O/U record is 7-5 this season. Their games have averaged 39.9 points, while the average over/under line has been 40.4 points.

Heading into week 13, the Patriots’ offense ranks 27th in our power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.4, and they rank last in passing yards per game with 167.2. New England is 26th in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 34.1%, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 8th in the league with a 40.6% conversion rate.

In week 12, the Patriots scored all 15 of their points in the 4th quarter against Miami. Drake Maye threw for 222 yards, completing 22 of 37 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. DeMario Douglas led the team with 62 receiving yards, and Antonio Gibson had 31 rushing yards on 6 carries.

In their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots’ defense allowed 4 passing touchdowns while Miami completed 72.5% of their passes for 308 yards. New England’s defense struggled to pressure the quarterback, managing only two sacks and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Despite their struggles defending the pass, the Patriots’ run defense was solid, holding the Dolphins to just 65 yards on 24 attempts. However, New England’s inability to get off the field on third down hurt them, as the Dolphins converted 66.7% of their third downs.

• Across New England’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 3-0 on the over-under.
• The Patriots have gone 1-9 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, New England went 1-7-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

For this week 13 matchup between the Colts and Patriots, we are going with the Colts to not only win but cover the spread. The point spread lines have the Colts sitting at -2.5 road favorites, and we have them winning by a score of 22-16.

As for the best way to bet the over/under, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 38 points, well below the O/U line of 42.5 points.

Football Picks from The Best NFL Expert Handicappers

Colts vs. Patriots: A Showdown of Young Talent and Lingering Challenges

As the Indianapolis Colts head to Foxborough, Massachusetts, to face the New England Patriots this Sunday, both teams look to overcome injuries, inconsistent performances, and other obstacles. With the Colts sitting at 5-7 and the Patriots at 3-9, this Week 13 matchup offers a chance for rookies and veterans alike to prove their mettle.

Drake Maye: A Rookie with Resilience

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, the third overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, has made headlines for his confidence and poise. Despite discussions around the infamous “rookie wall”—the idea that first-year players lose steam late in the season—Maye remains undeterred.

“As a starting quarterback, I don’t really think a rookie wall is going to hit me,” Maye said earlier this week. “By this time, everybody is dealing with something—whether it’s an injury or fatigue. This is just an opportunity to play for the New England Patriots.”

However, Maye’s recent performances highlight the challenges rookies often face. In a 34-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, he completed 22 of 37 passes for 222 yards with one touchdown and one interception. While his stats show flashes of potential, consistency remains a hurdle.

The Patriots’ Tough Road Ahead

New England coach Jerod Mayo acknowledged the challenge ahead, pointing out the strengths of the Colts’ defensive line.

“The Colts are going to be a huge challenge for us,” Mayo said. “Defensively, they have one of the most disruptive fronts we’ve seen all year.”

Adding to their woes, the Patriots are dealing with injuries to key players. Wide receiver Demario Douglas (ankle), linebacker Anfernee Jennings (knee), and safety Kyle Dugger (ankle) are among 12 players listed with injury designations this week. The team is also welcoming back safety Jabrill Peppers after a legal issue kept him off the field for several weeks, though his return comes with potential distractions.

Colts: Overcoming Offensive Struggles

The Colts enter this matchup fresh off a 24-6 loss to the Detroit Lions, where their offense faltered significantly. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson struggled with accuracy, completing just 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards. Despite his passing struggles, Richardson’s mobility remains a key asset—he led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 10 carries.

Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen emphasized the importance of getting the run game back on track, particularly for star running back Jonathan Taylor, who was limited to just 35 yards on 11 carries against Detroit.

“We need to be efficient running the football,” Steichen said. “If we can get those 3, 4, 5-yard runs consistently, the big ones will come.”

The Colts’ offensive woes are compounded by injuries to their wide receiver corps. Josh Downs (shoulder), Alec Pierce (foot), and Ashton Dulin (ankle) are all questionable for Sunday’s game. Downs, the team’s leading receiver with 53 catches for 594 yards and four touchdowns, would be particularly missed if he cannot suit up.

Key Matchups to Watch

Patriots Offensive Line vs. Colts Defensive Front

The Colts boast one of the league’s most aggressive and effective defensive lines. If the Patriots’ offensive line struggles to protect Maye, it could lead to another long day for New England’s offense.

Jonathan Taylor vs. Patriots Run Defense

Taylor’s performance will be crucial for Indianapolis. A strong showing could not only relieve pressure on Richardson but also control the tempo of the game.

Rookie Quarterback Duel

Both Maye and Richardson are talented but unpolished quarterbacks. Their ability to avoid mistakes and capitalize on opportunities could determine the outcome.

What’s at Stake?

For the Patriots, this game is an opportunity to develop Maye and find bright spots in a challenging season. For the Colts, a win keeps their faint playoff hopes alive and gives their young core valuable experience.

As both teams battle injuries and inconsistencies, Sunday’s matchup will likely come down to execution, adaptability, and which side can make the most of its available talent.

Predicted Outcome
This game could hinge on the Colts’ ability to establish their run game and the Patriots’ efforts to protect Maye from a relentless defensive front. While both teams face significant hurdles, Indianapolis may have the edge due to their stronger defense and slightly more established offensive core.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 20, Patriots 13

Injury Updates and Final Thoughts

• The Patriots’ long injury list could leave them vulnerable, particularly on offense.
• The Colts need to monitor their wide receiver situation carefully, as the absence of Josh Downs and others could stymie their ability to stretch the field.

The matchup may not carry playoff implications, but it remains a test of growth for both franchises as they look toward the future.