New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks and Predictions December 28th 2024

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers December 28th 2024

The Patriots are +180 on the money line as they face the Chargers at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 28th at Gillette Stadium. The Chargers are favored by -4 on the road, with the over/under line set at 42.5 points. The Patriots are the underdog on the point spread, and this week 17 AFC matchup is being televised on NFLN.

Los Angeles vs. New England Key Information

• Teams: Chargers at Patriots
• Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough
• Date: Saturday, December 28th
• Betting Odds LAC -214 | NE +180 O/U 42.5

The Chargers Can Win If…

After two straight losses, the Chargers bounced back in week 16 with a 34-27 win over the Broncos, improving their record to 9-6. The victory gives them a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they have no shot at winning the AFC West. Heading into week 17, the Chargers are 16th in our power rankings.

Against the spread, the Chargers are 10-4-1, with a +3.6 scoring margin. As favorites, they are 9-2 ATS, and as underdogs, they are 1-2-1. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the over hitting in two straight games.

Justin Herbert has been solid over his last three games, with his best performance coming in week 16 against the Broncos, where he threw for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 23 of 31 passes with a passer rating of 110. Before that, he had a 195-yard game in week 15 and a 213-yard outing in week 14. Ladd McConkey led the Chargers in receiving in week 16, with 6 catches for 87 yards, while Gus Edwards rushed for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries.

As a team, the Chargers rank 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.9, and they are 24th in passing yards per game, with 200.8. On the ground, they average 106.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. They have been strong in the red zone, converting 37.5% of their opportunities, which ranks 8th in the NFL.

In their 34-27 win over the Broncos, the Chargers’ defense gave up 110 rushing yards on 21 attempts. They allowed 245 passing yards on 29 completions, with two passing touchdowns. The defense recorded two sacks and limited Denver to a 38.5% conversion rate on third down. The Chargers also had 355 offensive yards against them and a 72.5% completion rate allowed to the Broncos.

• The Chargers have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 2-1 along with an over-under record of 2-1.
• Across Los Angeles’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 6-4. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Patriots Can Win If…

The Patriots enter week 17 against the Chargers on a five-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-12. New England ranks 27th in our power rankings and has been eliminated from playoff contention. They are 1-5 at home and 2-7 on the road, and they sit last in the AFC East with a 1-4 division record.

New England has an average scoring margin of -6.8 points per game and is 6-8-1 against the spread. They have been underdogs in all of their games so far. Their O/U record is 9-6, with their games averaging 41.3 points, which is right in line with the average line in their matchups.

Heading into week 17, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 17.3 points per game, which is 29th in the NFL. They also rank 29th in total yards per game, with 298.2. Despite being 16th in passing attempts, they are last in the league in passing yards, averaging 178.5 per game. On the ground, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game, with 119.7, on 26.4 attempts per game.

Drake Maye threw for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16, going 22/36, but he also had an interception, his 3rd straight game with a pick. Kayshon Boutte led the team with 5 catches for 95 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson had 60 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. The Patriots converted 7 of 12 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips against the Bills.

In their 24-21 loss to the Bills, the Patriots’ defense gave up 172 rushing yards on just 28 attempts, with Buffalo finding a lot of success on the ground (6.1 yards per attempt). Despite this, the Patriots defended the pass well, allowing only 152 yards through the air and holding Buffalo to 55.2% completions. They also intercepted one pass and limited the Bills to a 36.4% conversion rate on third downs.

New England’s defense managed one sack in the game and held Buffalo to just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. However, the Patriots’ offense didn’t help them out much, as they managed just 152 total yards in the game.

• Across New England’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 3-0.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, New England has a record of 1-9. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 2-6-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

For this week 17 matchup between the Chargers and Patriots, we have the Chargers pulling off the upset by a score of 28-21. With the Chargers coming in as 4-point favorites, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chargers to cover as road favorites.

As for the over/under line, we really like the over with a projected combined score of 49 points, and with the line sitting at just 42.5 points, we think there is some good value in taking the over.

Chargers Eye Playoff Berth in Showdown vs. Patriots

The Los Angeles Chargers return to Foxborough on Saturday to face the New England Patriots, aiming to secure their second consecutive win at Gillette Stadium and, more importantly, clinch a playoff spot.

Chargers’ Road to Redemption

The Chargers (9-6) overcame a historical hurdle last season with a 6-0 victory in Foxborough, just their second win ever in New England. Despite the modest scoreline, it signaled a shift in the franchise’s ability to win critical road games late in the season.

First-year coach Jim Harbaugh has brought heightened expectations to Los Angeles, aiming for the team to exceed the nine-win benchmark and cement a playoff berth. A win against the Patriots would solidify their standing in the AFC playoff picture.

“Nine wins can get you in the playoffs, but you need help,” Harbaugh said. “Ten wins, most years, can and this year I think it would. Eleven usually gets you in.”

The Chargers currently occupy the AFC’s sixth seed after a 34-27 win over Denver last week. They close the regular season with a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Herbert Leading the Way

Quarterback Justin Herbert has been steady, posting 18 touchdown passes against just three interceptions this season. However, two of those picks have come in his last two games. Former Chargers tight end Hunter Henry, now with New England, spoke highly of his former teammate:

“He has all the tools: strong arm, makes every throw, mobile, extends plays. He’s a special, special player,” Henry said.

Herbert will aim to stay efficient while leaning on key offensive contributors, including potential returns for running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, both of whom practiced in limited capacity this week.

Patriots: A Season of Growing Pains

The Patriots (3-12) continue to endure a rebuilding year with rookie quarterback Drake Maye leading the offense. While Maye has shown flashes of brilliance, tying a franchise rookie record with touchdown passes in seven straight games, his 10 interceptions highlight the challenges of adjusting to NFL defenses.

Coach Jerod Mayo remains optimistic about Maye’s development:

“The intangible with Drake, besides his even demeanor, is he’s learned from his mistakes. I expect that to continue going forward.”

New England’s defense has been a bright spot despite injuries, but safety Kyle Dugger (ankle/quadriceps) and cornerback Marcus Jones (hip) have yet to practice this week, raising concerns for a unit tasked with containing Herbert and the Chargers’ dynamic offense.

Key Matchups

Chargers’ Passing Attack vs. Patriots’ Secondary

With Dugger and Jones potentially sidelined, Herbert may have a field day against a depleted Patriots secondary.

Drake Maye vs. Chargers’ Pass Rush

Led by star pass rusher Khalil Mack, the Chargers’ defensive front will look to rattle the rookie quarterback and force turnovers.

Run Game Returns

If Dobbins and Edwards return for the Chargers, the ground game could provide balance to an offense that’s leaned heavily on Herbert.

Injury Reports

Chargers

• RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) – Limited
• RB Gus Edwards (ankle) – Limited
• P JK Scott (illness) – Did Not Practice
• OL Trey Pipkins III (hip) – Did Not Practice
• LB Denzel Perryman (groin) – Did Not Practice

Patriots

• S Kyle Dugger (ankle/quadriceps) – Did Not Practice
• CB Marcus Jones (hip) – Did Not Practice
• C Ben Brown (concussion) – Did Not Practice

Keys to the Game

Chargers

1. Establish the Run: Utilize a potentially healthy backfield to keep the Patriots’ defense off balance.
2. Pressure Maye: Disrupt the rookie quarterback with relentless pressure.
3. Limit Turnovers: Clean football from Herbert will keep the Chargers on track.

Patriots

1. Protect Maye: Give the rookie time to make plays against an aggressive Chargers defense.
2. Create Turnovers: Exploit any mistakes from Herbert to generate momentum.
3. Contain Big Plays: Keep the Chargers’ offense from explosive drives.

Don’t miss out—explore NFL Week 17 Odds & Predictions for expert picks and analysis!

Prediction

The Chargers’ balanced offense and superior pass rush should be too much for the rebuilding Patriots to handle. With playoff implications on the line, expect Los Angeles to take care of business.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Patriots 13