New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders Picks and Predictions December 15th 2024

New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders December 15th 2024

Washington is favored on the road as they take on the Saints at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 15th. The Commanders are -361 on the money line and -7.5 point favorites. The game, played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, is being televised on FOX. The Saints’ money line odds are +282, and the over/under line is set at 43 points.

Washington vs. New Orleans Key Information

After three straight losses, the Commanders bounced back in week 13, defeating the Titans 42-19 and improving to 8-5. Washington entered the game as 6-point favorites and easily covered the spread. The 61 combined points went over the 45.5-point line, marking their second straight over. So far, the over has hit in 9 of their 13 games this season.

Washington currently ranks 11th in our NFL power rankings and has an 84.8% chance of making the playoffs. They are 7th in the NFC and 2nd in the NFC East, with a 2-2 division record. Against the spread, they are 8-4-1, with a +6.2 scoring margin.

Heading into week 15, the Commanders rank 4th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game (28.9) and 5th in yards per game (377.6). Despite ranking 24th in passing attempts, they are 18th in passing yards per game, averaging 220.7. On the ground, they are 3rd in rushing yards per game (156.9) on 31.8 attempts per game, which ranks 4th in the league. Washington is 6th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 44.1% success rate, and they lead the NFL in red zone attempts, although they rank 26th in conversion percentage (7.3%).

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In week 13, Jayden Daniels threw for 206 yards, completing 25 of 30 passes, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries, while Terry McLaurin had 8 receptions for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns. Washington scored 21 points in the 1st quarter and converted 9 of 14 3rd-down attempts in their win over the Titans.

In their most recent game, the Washington Commanders’ defense gave up just 35 rushing yards on 11 attempts to the Titans. Despite allowing two passing touchdowns, they held Tennessee to 48.6% completions and 210 yards through the air. The Commanders’ defense also recorded two sacks and limited the Titans to a 41.7% conversion rate on third downs.

Washington’s defense played a big part in their 42-19 win, as they also won the quarterback hit battle with a +7 differential. The Commanders’ defense was tough to move the ball against, as they allowed just 245 total yards in the game.

After snapping a two-game losing streak with a 14-11 win over the Giants in week 14, the Saints are now 5-8 this season. They rank 29th in our power rankings and have just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. New Orleans is 3-4 at home and 2-4 on the road, and they are 2-3 in division games. This puts them 3rd in the NFC South.

The Saints are 5-8 against the spread, and they have failed to cover in two straight games. In week 14, they were 5.5-point favorites against the Giants but only won by 3. Their O/U record is 7-6, with the under hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 15, the Saints rank 14th in the NFL in passing yards per game (212.8) and 17th in passing attempts. Derek Carr threw for 219 yards (20/31) and a touchdown in week 14, with a passer rating of 82, but he will miss time due to a hand injury. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with 51 receiving yards in week 14, while Taysom Hill had 37 yards on 5 catches in week 13. Chris Olave is also out after being placed on injured reserve with a concussion.

New Orleans ranks 10th in rushing yards per game (128.7) and 7th in attempts. Alvin Kamara had 44 yards on 17 carries in week 14 after rushing for 112 yards in week 13. Taysom Hill had a standout performance in week 11, rushing for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Saints are 15th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.3.

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The Saints’ defense was tough to move the ball against on third downs in their most recent game against the Giants, allowing just a 26.3% conversion rate. They also held the Giants to just 11 points in a 14-11 win. New Orleans’ defense came up with two sacks and held the Giants to 213 passing yards. They also defended the run well, allowing just 4.9 yards per attempt, and 112 yards on the ground.

New Orleans’ defense also limited the Giants to a 42.9% completion percentage and came up with one interception. The Saints’ defense also won the QB hit differential, finishing with nine more QB hits than the Giants.

Our model has Washington pulling off the upset over the Saints, with a final score prediction of 31-20 in favor of the Commanders. With the Saints sitting at -7.5 point favorites, we are going with the Commanders to cover as our best bet vs. the spread.

For the over/under, we like the over with a predicted combined score of 51 points, and with the line sitting at just 43 points, there is a good amount of value on taking the over.

Commanders Look to Stay Hot Against Saints in Pivotal Matchup

The Washington Commanders, one of the NFL’s most surprising success stories this season, head to New Orleans on Sunday to face the Saints in a game with playoff implications for both teams. After a much-needed bye week, the Commanders (8-5) control their postseason destiny, while the Saints (7-6) remain in contention for the NFC South title.

Commanders Find New Life Under Dan Quinn

In his first season as head coach, Dan Quinn has orchestrated an impressive turnaround for a Commanders team that finished with just four wins last year. Washington raced to a 7-2 start before hitting a rough patch with three straight losses. However, they bounced back with a dominant 42-19 victory over the Tennessee Titans on Dec. 1 before their bye.

“We needed some space to heal up and to get healthy,” Quinn said. “In December and January football, the line of scrimmage is really the thing that leads the way, both sides.”

Washington’s resurgence has been fueled by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year. Daniels, who won the 2023 Heisman Trophy at LSU, has brought dynamic playmaking to the offense. His upcoming start in the Superdome will be a homecoming of sorts, as he played his college ball just down the road in Baton Rouge.

“I played football down the road (in Baton Rouge, La.),” Daniels said. “The Superdome gets pretty loud. It’s going to be fun.”

The Commanders also expect to have cornerback Marshon Lattimore available after he practiced fully this week. Lattimore, acquired in a November trade from New Orleans, could make his first appearance since suffering a hamstring injury while still with the Saints.

Saints Grapple with Quarterback Uncertainty

New Orleans has been resilient since interim head coach Darren Rizzi took over, going 3-1 in their last four games. However, the Saints face uncertainty at quarterback after Derek Carr sustained a concussion and a left-hand injury in last week’s 14-11 win over the New York Giants. Carr did not practice Wednesday, and his status remains in doubt.

Backup quarterbacks Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler have split reps in practice this week. Rizzi acknowledged that the game plan will include adjustments based on who starts but emphasized that the team won’t deviate dramatically.

“There’ll be some nuances in the game plan, depending on which guy starts,” Rizzi said. “But it’s not going to be this wholesale deal.”

The Saints’ offense will likely lean heavily on Alvin Kamara, who missed practice Wednesday due to illness but is expected to play. Kamara has been the focal point of the Saints’ attack, particularly in close games like last week’s narrow victory over the Giants.

“I’ve heard the narrative, ‘Well, you didn’t beat a good team’ — blah, blah, blah,” Rizzi said. “We found a way to win. It was a blocked field goal. That’s what we needed to win the game.”

Key Matchups

• Jayden Daniels vs. Saints’ Defense: The Saints will have to contain Daniels, whose dual-threat ability has kept defenses on their heels all season.
• Commanders’ Defensive Front vs. Saints’ O-Line: With Washington’s linemen refreshed after the bye, their pass rush could create problems for New Orleans’ uncertain quarterback situation.
• Alvin Kamara vs. Commanders’ Run Defense: Kamara’s ability to find space in the running and passing game will be critical for the Saints, especially if their quarterback play falters.

What to Watch

• Playoff Stakes: The Commanders are battling for an NFC wild-card spot, while the Saints are two games behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South with a critical divisional matchup looming.
• Daniels’ Superdome Homecoming: How will the rookie quarterback handle the noise and energy in a familiar but high-pressure environment?
• Saints’ Resilience: Can New Orleans overcome their quarterback uncertainty and capitalize on home-field advantage?

Injury Updates

The Commanders have a few lingering injuries but are trending toward better health. Running back Emari Demercado (back) and defensive linemen Naquan Jones, Roy Lopez, and Darius Robinson were limited or absent in practice.

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The Saints face more pressing concerns, with Derek Carr (concussion, hand) and key players like wide receiver Javon Baker (concussion) and Alvin Kamara (illness) nursing issues. The availability of these players could shape the outcome of the game.

Outlook

The Commanders’ recent form and improved health position them as slight favorites against a Saints team grappling with uncertainty under center. However, New Orleans has shown resilience under Rizzi, and the home crowd at the Superdome could provide a crucial edge. With playoff implications for both teams, expect a physical and closely contested game.