New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions January 5th 2025

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins January 5th 2025

The Dolphins are favored on the road in their week 18 matchup against the Jets, which is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The game is set for 4:25 ET on Sunday, January 5th, with FOX handling the television coverage. Miami’s money line odds are -117, while the Jets are at -104. The Dolphins are -1 point favorites, and the over/under line is currently at 39 points.

Miami vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Dolphins at Jets
• Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford
• Date: Sunday, January 5th
• Betting Odds MIA -117 | NYJ -104 O/U 39

The Dolphins Can Win If…

The Dolphins have won two straight games, bringing their record to 8-8 and placing them 12th in our power rankings. After a week 15 loss to the Texans, Miami bounced back with wins over the 49ers and Browns. In week 17, they defeated Cleveland 20-3, covering the 3-point spread. The combined scoring of 23 points fell short of the 32.5-point line.

Miami has a 25.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they are out of the AFC East race. They are 7-9 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of -0.4 points per game. Their O/U record is also 7-9, with their games averaging 41.1 points compared to an average line of 44.3.

Heading into week 18, the Dolphins rank 16th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 20.3 points per game, which places them 21st in the league. They are 18th in total yards, with 324.9 per game, and 15th in passing yards, averaging 221.1 per game on 34.4 attempts (9th). On the ground, Miami ranks 24th in rushing yards, with 103.8 per game, on 26.6 attempts per contest.

Tyler Huntley took over at quarterback in week 17, throwing for 225 yards (22/26) and a touchdown, posting a passer rating of 115. Tyreek Hill led the team with 9 catches for 105 yards, while Huntley also added 52 rushing yards on 7 carries. Miami converted 2 of 11 third-down attempts and scored on both of their red zone trips in week 17.

In their 20-3 win over the Browns, the Dolphins’ defense was outstanding, holding Cleveland to just 3 points and 162 yards passing. They defended the run well, allowing only 114 yards on 28 attempts. Miami’s secondary limited the Browns to a 51.1% completion rate and didn’t allow a passing touchdown.

Despite only one sack, the Dolphins pressured the Browns’ backfield, winning the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -8. Miami’s defense also excelled on third downs, allowing the Browns to convert just 41.2% of their third down attempts.

• The Dolphins have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• The Dolphins have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-4 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Jets Can Win If…

The Jets enter week 18 against the Dolphins with a 4-12 record, ranking 21st in our power rankings. New York has lost two straight games, including a 40-14 defeat to the Bills in week 17. The Jets were 10.5-point underdogs in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. Their O/U record stands at 9-6-1 this season.

New York has a -4.9 average scoring margin and is 5-11 against the spread. They are 4-6 ATS as favorites and 1-5 as underdogs. In division play, the Jets are 1-4, and they have a 2-5 home record and a 2-7 road record.

Heading into week 18, the Jets rank 17th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in points per game (19.1) and 24th in yards per game (306.2). New York has been pass-heavy, ranking 6th in passing attempts, with 216.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th. On the ground, they are 26th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards per game, averaging 90.2.

Aaron Rodgers struggled in week 17, throwing for just 112 yards and 2 interceptions in a loss to the Bills. He was sacked 4 times and had a passer rating of 43. Garrett Wilson led the team with 66 receiving yards on 7 catches, while Breece Hall had 45 rushing yards on 10 carries.

In their 40-14 loss to the Bills, the Jets’ defense gave up 251 yards through the air, including three passing touchdowns. They also struggled to defend the big play, allowing Buffalo to average 9 yards per pass attempt. New York didn’t record any sacks and allowed the Bills to convert on 57.1% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the Jets fared a bit better, holding the Bills to 97 yards and 2.9 yards per attempt. However, the lack of pressure on the quarterback hurt them, as they lost the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials, both by -4.

• Through their last three regular season contests, New York has a record of 0-3. This includes going 0-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across New York’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 4-6. This includes going 3-7 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

With the point spread currently at -1 in favor of the Dolphins, our pick is to take Miami to cover as the road favorites. We have the Dolphins coming out on top by a score of 24-22, making them our best bet vs. the spread.

For the over/under, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 46 points and the line sitting at just 39 points.

Dolphins’ Playoff Hopes Alive Entering Finale vs. Jets

The Miami Dolphins are gearing up for a critical showdown against the New York Jets on Sunday in East Rutherford, N.J., with playoff implications on the line. A victory over their division rivals, coupled with a Denver Broncos loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, would secure Miami the AFC’s final playoff berth.

Miami’s Quest for Postseason Glory

If the Dolphins manage to clinch a playoff spot, it would mark their first three-year postseason streak since 1997-2001. However, they aim to break a much longer drought, as the team hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000.

Miami will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for the second straight game due to a hip injury. Tyler Huntley is expected to make his second consecutive start, bringing optimism after his strong showing in last week’s 20-3 win over the Cleveland Browns. Huntley went 22-for-26 for 225 yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown, while avoiding turnovers.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel expressed confidence in his team’s adaptability:
“As a team, I think it’s very easy for us to adjust as the week progresses,” McDaniel said.

Jets Playing for Pride—and Rodgers’ Legacy

The Jets, eliminated from playoff contention, enter the game with an opportunity to spoil their division rival’s postseason aspirations. Yet, much of the attention is on Aaron Rodgers, who could be making the final start of his storied career.

Rodgers, 41, returned this season after a season-ending Achilles injury in his Jets debut in 2023. However, his production has been a shadow of his former MVP-caliber years, with career lows in touchdowns (24) and passing yards (3,623) for a season in which he started at least 15 games.

Following a dismal performance last week—112 passing yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions in a 40-14 loss to Buffalo—Rodgers acknowledged the looming uncertainty surrounding his future with the Jets.
“I think there’s going to be change here,” Rodgers said. “If I’m [not] a part of the change, then I just want to make sure everybody knows I have nothing but gratitude for my time here.”

Previous Meeting and Key Matchups

The Dolphins edged the Jets 32-26 in overtime in their first meeting this season on Dec. 8 in Miami. Miami erased an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit, winning on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Tagovailoa to Jonnu Smith. Miami has won four of its last five games against New York.

Sunday’s rematch pits Miami’s potent offense, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, against a Jets defense anchored by standout rookies Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. However, both teams are dealing with significant injuries.

Injury Updates

Dolphins

• Out: QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip)
• Did Not Practice: LT Terron Armstead (knee), S Jordan Poyer (knee), LB Anthony Walker (knee)
• Limited: S Jevon Holland (wrist), WR Jaylen Waddle (knee), WR Tyreek Hill (wrist)

Jets

• Did Not Practice: TE Tyler Conklin (calf), CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring), RT Morgan Moses (knee), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring)
• Limited: LG John Simpson (groin)

With their season on the line, the Dolphins must lean on Huntley’s leadership and the playmaking abilities of Hill and Waddle to secure a win and keep their postseason dreams alive. Meanwhile, the Jets aim to close the season with a win and perhaps give Rodgers a proper sendoff—or a reason to return in 2024.