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Packers vs Dolphins November 28th 2024
The over/under line is set at 47 points for the week 13 non-conference matchup between the Dolphins and Packers. The game, being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, is set for 8:20 ET on Thursday, November 28th, with TV coverage provided by NBC. The Packers are favored at -3.5 on the point spread and have money line odds of -177, while the Dolphins’ money line odds are +150.
Miami vs. Green Bay Key Information
- Teams: Dolphins at Packers
- Where: Lambeau Field Green Bay
- Date: Thursday, November 28th
- Betting Odds GB -177 | MIA +150 O/U 47
The Dolphins Can Win If…
After a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals in week 8, the Dolphins have bounced back with three straight wins, including a 34-15 victory over the Patriots in week 12. Miami was a 7.5-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 5-6. They’ve now covered in four consecutive games.
Miami is 5-6 this season, putting them 2nd in the AFC East and 8th in the conference. Our power rankings have them 16th heading into week 13, and they have a 19.6% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record stands at 5-6, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Heading into week 13, the Dolphins are 20th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 22nd in the NFL, scoring 19.5 points per game, and are 19th in yards per game with 323.9. Miami is 15th in passing attempts and 19th in passing yards per game, averaging 207.1 yards. On the ground, they are 8th in rushing attempts and 16th in rushing yards per game. The Dolphins have been strong on 3rd down, converting 41.8% of their attempts, which ranks 10th in the league.
Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire, throwing for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 12 against the Patriots, following his 288-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 11. Jaylen Waddle led the team with 8 catches for 144 yards in week 12. De’Von Achane had 10 carries for 32 yards in week 12, after rushing for 73 yards on 17 carries in week 11. Miami scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter against New England and converted 3 of 4 red zone attempts.
In their 34-15 win over the Patriots, the Dolphins’ defense allowed just a 21.4% conversion rate on third downs. They also came away with four sacks and limited New England to 182 passing yards. Miami defended the run well, allowing just 86 yards on 21 attempts and forcing the Patriots to finish with only 268 total yards. They also picked off one pass and held New England to a 57.9% completion rate.
- Spanning across their last three games, Miami have gone 3-0. In these games, they have a 3-0 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
- Through their last ten regular season contests, Miami has a record of 4-6. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-5.
The Packers Can Win If…
With a 28-point win over the 49ers in week 12, the Packers improved to 8-3 and now have a 97.2% chance of making the playoffs according to our projections. The victory was Green Bay’s second in a row, following a narrow 20-19 win over the Bears in week 11. The Packers were unable to cover the spread in that game, but they did cover as 6.5-point favorites against San Francisco.
Heading into week 13, Green Bay ranks 4th in our NFL power rankings. They are 5-6 against the spread this season and have an average scoring margin of +5.9 points per game. Their O/U record stands at 5-5-1, with their games averaging 46.5 points per contest.
Heading into week 13, the Packers rank 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 8th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.2 points per game, and 5th in yards per game with 381.9. Green Bay has leaned on the run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game (151.6). However, they rank 19th in 3rd-down conversions and 25th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 4th in red zone attempts.
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Jordan Love threw for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 12, going 13/23 without an interception. Josh Jacobs rushed for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 carries, while Romeo Doubs led the team with 54 receiving yards. Doubs is questionable for week 13 with a concussion.
In their 38-10 win over the 49ers, the Packers’ defense was outstanding, holding San Francisco to just 44 rushing yards on 16 attempts. They allowed only 241 total yards and 197 passing yards, with the 49ers managing just a 58.6% completion rate. The Packers also defended well on third downs, allowing only a 30% conversion rate.
Green Bay’s defense came away with one interception and two sacks in the game. Despite this, they did lose the tackles for loss battle, finishing with a -2 differential.
- Green Bay will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 1-2.
- Across Green Bay’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-4 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-5-1.
The Lean
For this week 13 matchup between the Dolphins and Packers, we have the Dolphins coming out on top by a score of 22-17. Even though the Packers are the home team, we are leaning towards taking the Dolphins to cover the spread, as they are currently sitting at +3.5.
As for the best way to bet this one, we like taking the Dolphins to cover as road underdogs. For the over/under, we are leaning towards the under, with a projected combined score of 39 points and the line sitting at 47 points.
