Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions October 20th 2024

Packers vs Texans October 20th 2024

The Texans and Packers will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 20th at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Texans are the road underdogs with a point spread of +3 and a money line of +127. The Packers, favored at -151, are looking to improve their record in this non-conference matchup. The game will be televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 47.5 points.

Houston vs. Green Bay Key Information

With three straight wins, the Texans are now 5-1, putting them at the top of the AFC South. After narrowly beating the Bills in week 5, Houston bounced back with a 41-21 road win over the Patriots in week 6. They were favored by 6.5 points and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 2-4 this season.

Heading into week 7, the Texans rank 9th in our NFL power rankings and have a 93.2% chance of making the playoffs. They have been favored in all of their games so far and have a +1.3 scoring margin. Their O/U record stands at 2-4, with their games averaging 46.3 points.

Heading into week 7, the Texans sit 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.8, and 6th in yards per game with 375.2. Houston has been pass-heavy, ranking 4th in passing attempts and 5th in passing yards per game (256.3). They are 17th in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards, averaging 118.8 per game.

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C.J. Stroud threw for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20/31 passing in week 6. Joe Mixon led the team with 102 rushing yards on 13 carries, while Stefon Diggs had 6 catches for 77 yards. The Texans scored 14 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters against New England.

The Texans’ defense played well in their 41-21 win over the Patriots, coming up with four sacks and forcing two interceptions. Despite allowing three passing touchdowns, they held New England to just 209 passing yards and a 23.1% third-down conversion rate. Houston defended the run effectively, giving up only 82 yards on 26 attempts.

The Texans’ secondary allowed the Patriots to complete 60.6% of their passes. However, Houston’s pass rush was effective, winning the QB hit differential and recording four sacks. This performance helped them secure a comfortable win over New England.

Heading into week 7 vs the Texans, the Packers are 4-2 and have won two straight games, including a 34-13 win over the Cardinals in week 6. Green Bay was a 5.5-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 4-2. They rank 6th in our NFL power rankings and have a 65.7% chance of making the playoffs according to our projections.

So far, the average O/U line in Packers games has been 44.8, with their matchups averaging 47.2 points. Their O/U record stands at 3-2-1. In week 6, their game vs the Cardinals ended with 47 points, resulting in a push.

Jordan Love has been solid for the Packers, throwing for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 6, with a passer rating of 119. In week 5, he had 224 yards and 2 touchdowns, and in week 4, he threw for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, he also had 3 interceptions in that game. Josh Jacobs rushed for 62 yards on 18 carries in week 6, after gaining 73 yards on 19 carries in week 5. Christian Watson led the team with 68 receiving yards in week 6, while Tucker Kraft had 88 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 5, and Jayden Reed had 139 yards in week 4.

Heading into week 7, the Packers rank 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 7th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27 points per game, and 4th in total yards with 400 per game. Green Bay emphasizes the run, ranking 3rd in rushing attempts and 2nd in rushing yards per game with 167.2. They average 232.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the league.

In the Packers’ 34-13 win over the Cardinals, their defense allowed 214 passing yards on 22 completions. The Packers’ secondary did not give up any big plays, as the Cardinals averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt. Arizona finished with a 68.8% completion percentage and converted 40% of their third down attempts.

Green Bay’s run defense held up well, allowing just 89 yards on 23 attempts (3.9 yards per attempt). However, the Packers didn’t record any sacks in the game and lost the tackles for loss battle by -1.

Our pick against the spread is to take the Packers to cover as home favorites. Right now, the point spread lines have the Packers at -3, and we actually have them not only covering but winning this matchup 25-20.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 47.5 points, we are leaning towards the under, with our projections having this game finishing with 45 combined points.

Streaking Texans Expect Challenge from Packers

The Houston Texans have taken control of the AFC South with a two-game lead and now boast the second-best record in the conference. However, they face a formidable challenge this Sunday when they head to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.

Despite Houston’s (5-1) recent success, some injuries and offensive inconsistencies have kept wide receiver Tank Dell and his teammates pushing to improve. Dell believes the team hasn’t yet hit its full potential.

“Once we get everybody back and everyone clicking at once,” Dell said, “I feel like the sky’s the limit.”

Last week, the Texans showed just how potent they can be with a dominant 41-21 victory over the New England Patriots, stretching their winning streak to three games. Quarterback C.J. Stroud led the charge with three touchdown passes, adding to his impressive season totals.

Texans Offense Rolling Behind Stroud

Stroud has been exceptional for the Texans this season, completing 68.3 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and just four interceptions. His ability to remain calm under pressure has caught the attention of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.

“I think he’s super talented,” LaFleur said. “Obviously, he’s got the ability where the moment is not too big for him. He can process very fast, and he’s a very good anticipatory thrower, which I think is a bit of a lost art.”

Stroud’s play has been complemented by the Texans’ ground game, led by Joe Mixon, who rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win. Houston’s balanced attack also features star receiver Stefon Diggs, who has been instrumental in stretching defenses.

Packers Defense Ready to Test Stroud

Green Bay (4-2) will be a tough test for Stroud and the Texans’ high-powered offense. The Packers’ defense leads the NFL in turnover differential at plus-9, thanks in large part to safety Xavier McKinney, who tops the league with five interceptions.

Tank Dell acknowledged the challenge of facing such a strong secondary but remains confident in his team’s ability to compete.

“Very good defensive back group. Very physical. We know that coming in,” Dell said. “They’re ready to make plays. (McKinney) is leading the NFL in interceptions, so we know he wants to make a play on the ball. It’s a very good group going in, and we’re feeling confident. I know they’re going to feel confident, so it’s going to be a good battle.”

Packers Offense Hits Its Stride

On the other side of the ball, the Packers offense is coming off its best performance of the season, a 34-13 rout of the Arizona Cardinals. Jordan Love tied his career high with four touchdown passes, with two of those going to Romeo Doubs, who returned from a one-game suspension.

Doubs, who served the suspension for conduct detrimental to the team, expressed relief at getting back into a groove.

“I was able to get back to my regular self,” Doubs said after the win.

The Packers also made a change at kicker this week, signing veteran Brandon McManus after releasing rookie Brayden Narveson. McManus, who kicked for the Denver Broncos from 2014-22 and spent last season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, is eager to make his mark in Green Bay.

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“Every single day you have to prove yourself,” McManus said. “Kicker is such a black-and-white position.”

Key Injuries Impacting Both Teams

Injuries remain a concern for both teams heading into Sunday’s game. For the Texans, Mixon (ankle) and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (ankle) were limited in practice on Wednesday, leaving their status for Sunday uncertain.

Green Bay is also dealing with injuries, as offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins (knee) and defensive linemen Colby Wooden (knee) and Devonte Wyatt (ankle) missed Wednesday’s practice.

The Texans’ defensive line has faced fluctuations in depth, with Mario Edwards Jr. suspended for four games for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. However, Denico Autry is set to return after serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drugs policy.

Series History

The Packers lead the all-time series 4-1, including a 1-1 record at home. Green Bay has won three straight meetings against Houston, with two of those victories decided by 15 or more points.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur began his NFL coaching career as an offensive assistant with the Texans from 2008-09, adding another layer of intrigue to the matchup.

With both teams vying to extend their success, Sunday’s game promises to be a key early-season test. The Texans aim to keep their winning streak alive and solidify their position atop the AFC South, while the Packers look to continue their upward trajectory and maintain their push in the NFC playoff picture.