New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

The Patriots are the underdog at +128 on the money line as they host the Colts at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st. The Colts are favored on the road with a money line of -151 and a point spread of -2.5. The over/under line is set at 42.5 points for this week 13 AFC matchup. You can watch this one on CBS.

Indianapolis vs. New England Key Information

• Teams: Colts at Patriots
• Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds IND -151 | NE +128 O/U 42.5

The Colts Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the Colts are 5-7, putting them 2nd in the AFC South. They have a 1-3 record in the division and are 4-4 in conference play. Our projections give them a 22.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 7.4% chance of winning the division. Indianapolis is 25th in our NFL power rankings.

Against the spread, the Colts are 8-4 this season, with a +2.7 scoring margin. They are 6-3 as underdogs and 2-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 5-7, with their games averaging 43 points compared to an average line of 44.8.

Heading into week 13, the Colts rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are currently 20th in the NFL in points per game (20.2) and 22nd in yards per game (316.3). Indianapolis is 23rd in passing attempts, with 199.7 passing yards per game, and they rank 21st in rushing attempts, averaging 116.7 rushing yards per game. On third down, the Colts are 23rd in the league, converting 36% of their attempts, but they rank 10th in red zone attempts and 16th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 12, the Colts struggled offensively, scoring just 6 points in a loss to the Lions, with all of their points coming in the first half. Anthony Richardson threw for 172 yards on 11/28 passing, while Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 96 receiving yards. Richardson also led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 10 carries.

In their 24-6 loss to the Lions, the Colts’ defense allowed 390 total yards and 137 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Despite this, they did manage to record three sacks and held Detroit to 4.2 yards per attempt on the ground. The passing game was 26 completions for 253 yards, with a 72.2% completion rate. Indianapolis struggled on third downs, allowing the Lions to convert 60% of their chances.

• The Colts have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Colts have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Patriots Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the Patriots sit 30th in our power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. New England is 3-9 on the season and has lost two straight games, including a 34-15 defeat to the Dolphins in week 12. The Patriots were 7.5-point underdogs in that game and failed to cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 4-7-1. They’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far this season.

New England is 1-4 at home and 2-5 on the road this year. In division play, they are 1-3, and they are 2-6 against AFC opponents. The over has hit in the Patriots’ last two games, and their O/U record is 7-5 this season. Their games have averaged 39.9 points, while the average over/under line has been 40.4 points.

Heading into week 13, the Patriots’ offense ranks 27th in our power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.4, and they rank last in passing yards per game with 167.2. New England is 26th in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 34.1%, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 8th in the league with a 40.6% conversion rate.

In week 12, the Patriots scored all 15 of their points in the 4th quarter against Miami. Drake Maye threw for 222 yards, completing 22 of 37 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. DeMario Douglas led the team with 62 receiving yards, and Antonio Gibson had 31 rushing yards on 6 carries.

In their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots’ defense allowed 4 passing touchdowns while Miami completed 72.5% of their passes for 308 yards. New England’s defense struggled to pressure the quarterback, managing only two sacks and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Despite their struggles defending the pass, the Patriots’ run defense was solid, holding the Dolphins to just 65 yards on 24 attempts. However, New England’s inability to get off the field on third down hurt them, as the Dolphins converted 66.7% of their third downs.

• Across New England’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 3-0 on the over-under.
• The Patriots have gone 1-9 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, New England went 1-7-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

For this week 13 matchup between the Colts and Patriots, we are going with the Colts to not only win but cover the spread. The point spread lines have the Colts sitting at -2.5 road favorites, and we have them winning by a score of 22-16.

As for the best way to bet the over/under, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 38 points, well below the O/U line of 42.5 points.

Rookie Drake Maye Faces Colts’ Tough Defense

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is set to lead the New England Patriots (3-9) against the Indianapolis Colts (5-7) on Sunday in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Maye, selected third overall in this year’s NFL Draft, has made it clear he’s not concerned about the so-called “rookie wall” as he continues to adjust to the challenges of the NFL.

“I don’t really think a rookie wall is going to hit me,” Maye said. “At this point, everyone is dealing with something, whether it’s injuries or fatigue. But to be the starting quarterback for the Patriots—it’s a huge opportunity, and I’m embracing it.”

Despite his confidence, Maye struggled last week in a 34-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins, completing 22 of 37 passes for 222 yards with one touchdown and one interception. New England head coach Jerod Mayo knows the Colts’ defense presents another formidable challenge for his young quarterback.

“The Colts have one of the better and more disruptive defensive fronts we’ve faced,” Mayo said.

Colts’ Offensive Woes

The Colts enter the game after a disappointing 24-6 loss to the Detroit Lions, in which the offense failed to find its rhythm. Quarterback Anthony Richardson completed just 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards and led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 10 carries.

Star running back Jonathan Taylor was limited to 35 yards on 11 carries, but Colts head coach Shane Steichen remains optimistic about his offense’s potential against New England.

“We want to be efficient running the football,” Steichen said. “If we can get those 3, 4, or 5 yards a pop, the big ones will come.”

The Colts’ passing game may face challenges if wide receivers Josh Downs (shoulder), Alec Pierce (foot), and Ashton Dulin (ankle) are unavailable. Downs, who leads the team with 53 receptions for 594 yards and four touchdowns, is particularly critical to the offense.

“It’s going to be tough for him this week,” Steichen said of Downs. “We’re not ruling him out, but it’s not looking great.”

Patriots’ Injury Report

New England also faces injury concerns, with 12 players listed as limited in practice on Wednesday. Key names include wide receiver Demario Douglas (ankle), linebacker Anfernee Jennings (knee), and safeties Kyle Dugger (ankle) and Jabrill Peppers (knee).

Peppers returned to practice this week after being reinstated from the commissioner’s exempt list. He had been sidelined since Oct. 5 following an arrest involving multiple charges, including assault and possession of a Class B drug. Peppers has pleaded not guilty.

Key Matchups

Drake Maye vs. Colts’ Defensive Front: Maye’s ability to handle Indianapolis’ pressure will be crucial. The Colts rank among the league’s best in quarterback pressures, and their ability to disrupt Maye could be the difference.

Jonathan Taylor vs. Patriots’ Run Defense: The Colts need Taylor to re-establish the ground game, especially with uncertainty at wide receiver. The Patriots have struggled against the run at times this season, which could open opportunities for Taylor.

Anthony Richardson’s Dual Threat: Richardson’s athleticism and ability to extend plays could pose problems for a Patriots defense that has struggled with mobile quarterbacks.

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Prediction

The Colts’ defensive edge and potential for a strong running game give them the upper hand against a Patriots squad still searching for answers. Unless Drake Maye can elevate his game and overcome Indianapolis’ defensive pressure, the Colts should control the pace.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24, Patriots 16