New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

Patriots, Dolphins both looking to turn things around

FOX is set to broadcast this week five AFC East matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins, taking place at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 6th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Patriots are the slight favorite with a point spread of -1 and money line odds of -112. The Dolphins’ money line odds are -108, and the over/under line is at 35.5 points.

Miami vs. New England Key Information

• Teams: Dolphins at Patriots
• Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds NE -112 | MIA -108 O/U 35.5

The Dolphins Can Win If…

The Dolphins’ record now stands at 1-3 after they lost to the Titans by a score of 31-12. Miami was favored by -2.5 but lost straight-up by 19 points. The game was close early, with the Titans leading just 9-3 at halftime, but Miami’s chances faded in the 3rd quarter as the Titans outscored them by 10 points.Miami did not cover the spread, and the combined 43 points went over the 37.5-point total line. The Dolphins managed to score a couple of late touchdowns in the 4th quarter, with Tyler Huntley rushing for one and a final score by Tony Pollard. However, by that point, the Titans had already put the game out of reach.

The Dolphins’ offense struggled to move the ball in their 31-12 loss to the Titans, managing just 13 first downs and 78 yards passing. Miami’s running game gained 106 yards on 30 attempts, but they were unable to sustain drives, converting only 16.7% of their third down chances. Tyler Huntley, filling in at quarterback, threw for 96 yards and led the team in rushing with 40 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown run.

Jaylen Waddle was Miami’s top receiver with 36 yards on four catches. The Dolphins’ two quarterbacks were sacked twice and Huntley finished with a passer rating of 73, not throwing any touchdowns. The offense as a whole struggled to generate big plays, with their longest pass play being 18 yards to Waddle.

In their 31-12 loss to the Titans, the Dolphins’ defense held Tennessee to just 102 passing yards. However, Miami struggled to stop the run, allowing 142 yards on 40 attempts. The Dolphins’ defense forced the Titans into a 16.7% third-down conversion rate and allowed just 12 completions. They also came up with one interception and didn’t give up any passing touchdowns. Miami’s defense limited the Titans to 244 total yards.

• Miami has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). Across these games, their ATS record was just 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• The Dolphins have gone 3-7 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 2-8 against the spread, while going 3-7 on the over-under.

The Patriots Can Win If…

The Patriots are now 1-3 following a 30-13 loss to the 49ers. New England fell behind early, with the 49ers leading 6-0 after the first quarter. The Patriots managed a field goal late in the 2nd quarter but still trailed 20-3 at halftime. New England did put together a touchdown drive to start the 3rd quarter, but the 49ers quickly answered with a touchdown of their own to keep the game out of reach.

After the Patriots made the score 27-13 in the 3rd quarter, the 49ers added another touchdown in the 4th to seal the game. New England’s Antonio Gibson did find the endzone late in the 4th to make the score 30-20 in favor of the 49ers. The Patriots were 10.5-point underdogs heading into this one, and with the 17-point loss, they failed to cover the spread.

The Patriots’ offense struggled to move the ball in their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, finishing with just 12 first downs and 143 yards passing. Jacoby Brissett, filling in at quarterback, went 19/32 for 168 yards, with a late touchdown and one interception. The Patriots’ running game managed only 73 yards on 24 attempts, with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson leading the way with 43 yards.

New England’s offensive line allowed six sacks, and the team as a whole managed only 73 yards rushing. Brissett’s passer rating was 70, and the offense converted on just 31.2% of their third down attempts.

In their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, the Patriots’ defense allowed 431 total yards. They struggled to defend the run, giving up 148 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Despite allowing just 15 completions to the 49ers, they still gave up 283 yards through the air, including a 10.5 yards per attempt average.New England’s defense managed one interception and one sack, but they allowed the 49ers to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts. Additionally, the Patriots had a tough time generating pressure, losing the QB hit differential by -6 and the tackles for loss differential by -4.

• The Patriots have gone 0-3 over their last three regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 0-1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Patriots have gone 1-9 straight up. Against the spread, New England went 1-7-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

For this week five matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots, we have the Patriots coming out on top by a score of 22-16. Even though the Dolphins are the slight favorite at +1, we like the Patriots to cover as home favorites. Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Patriots to cover at home.

As for the best way to play the over/under, we like taking the over with a projected combined score of 38 points, and with the O/U line sitting at just 35.5 points, there is some good value in taking the over.

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, each facing a string of early-season struggles, are set to square off on Sunday in Foxborough, Massachusetts. With identical 1-3 records, both teams are in desperate need of a win to reignite their seasons. Injuries and offensive inefficiency have been plaguing both franchises, and Sunday’s game could serve as a pivotal moment in their respective campaigns.

Dolphins’ Struggles Without Tua Tagovailoa

Miami’s season took a significant hit when starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was placed on injured reserve following a concussion in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins, once thought to be an ascending team after a narrow Week 1 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, have faltered in the absence of their signal-caller.

Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley has struggled to find rhythm and consistency under center. In his start against the Tennessee Titans, Huntley managed just 96 passing yards on 14-of-22 attempts as the Dolphins fell 31-12. Over the last two games, Miami has been outscored 55-15, raising concerns about their ability to compete without Tagovailoa.

Head coach Mike McDaniel has openly acknowledged the need for offensive changes, stating, “Everything’s on the table… you can’t argue that the offense is good.” McDaniel hinted at possible shifts in approach, especially considering the team’s inability to generate any offensive leads since Week 1. Miami is the first team since the 2017 Cleveland Browns to go four consecutive games without holding a lead.

Key Offensive and Defensive Concerns for Miami

In addition to their quarterback issues, the Dolphins are also grappling with significant defensive setbacks. Linebacker Jaelan Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury during Monday’s loss to the Titans. Phillips, an emotional leader on defense, will be missed for his playmaking ability and leadership. His injury further weakens a defense that has struggled to contain opposing offenses.

The Dolphins have been plagued by an inability to create momentum in games, and with Phillips out, they face the difficult task of filling the gap he leaves behind.

Patriots’ Offensive Woes and Injury Issues

Like Miami, the New England Patriots are facing offensive struggles of their own. Starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who started the season with a 120-yard performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, has been battling fumble issues. With a fumble in each of his four games this season, Stevenson has put the Patriots in tough situations, often shifting momentum to the opposing team.

Head coach Jerod Mayo has made it clear that ball security is a top priority, indicating that Antonio Gibson could replace Stevenson as the starting running back. “We can’t preach that ball security is job security and still have [Stevenson] out there the majority of the time,” Mayo said. This move could shake up the Patriots’ offensive strategy heading into Sunday’s game.

Compounding their offensive issues, New England has suffered severe blows on their offensive line. Center David Andrews will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, and right tackle Caedan Wallace (ankle) is also headed to injured reserve. The loss of Andrews, a nine-year veteran and team captain, is particularly concerning as it leaves a leadership vacuum on the offensive line. Andrews’ replacement, Nick Leverett, has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable.

New England’s Growing Injury List

The injury situation in New England extends beyond the offensive line. Key defensive players like safety Kyle Dugger and linebacker Sione Takitaki are also dealing with injuries. Dugger, a key playmaker in the secondary, has been battling an ankle injury, while Takitaki is doubtful due to a knee issue.

On offense, wide receiver K.J. Osborn (shoulder) and running back Raheem Mostert (chest) have been limited in practice, while veteran wideout Odell Beckham Jr. is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Beckham, who signed with Miami in May but has been sidelined with a knee injury, practiced in full for the first time this week and could make his Dolphins debut against the Patriots.

Dolphins and Patriots Look to Turn Things Around

Both teams are coming off three consecutive losses, and Sunday’s game could be a critical turning point. The Dolphins have struggled to put together complete offensive drives, particularly in Tagovailoa’s absence. Huntley, expected to start once again, will need to significantly improve his performance for Miami to compete with a Patriots defense that, despite injuries, still boasts capable playmakers.

For New England, finding balance on offense remains a challenge. With Stevenson’s ball security issues, the Patriots could lean on Antonio Gibson to provide stability in the run game. The depleted offensive line, however, raises concerns about whether the team can adequately protect quarterback Mac Jones and create openings for their running backs.

Game Impact and What to Watch

This matchup offers both teams a chance to right the ship. For Miami, a win would signal that they can compete even without their starting quarterback, and with potential returns like Beckham, they could finally unlock more offensive firepower. For New England, bouncing back after their humiliating 30-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers would help restore confidence, especially on a team that has historically thrived on discipline and adaptability.

Expect both teams to focus on limiting turnovers and exploiting their opponent’s injuries. New England’s ability to adjust their offensive scheme in light of their O-line injuries will be crucial. Miami, on the other hand, needs to find ways to generate offensive momentum early in the game—something they’ve failed to do so far this season.

Injury Reports and Final Thoughts

Both teams are entering the matchup with numerous key players sidelined or questionable. For Miami, Jaelan Phillips and Tua Tagovailoa are major losses, while Odell Beckham Jr. could offer a much-needed boost if he suits up. The Patriots will have to navigate without David Andrews and several other key contributors.

The game’s outcome may come down to which team can better handle adversity and capitalize on their opponent’s vulnerabilities. Both the Dolphins and Patriots have a lot riding on this game, as a win could help salvage their seasons, while a loss would further entrench them in their respective slumps.

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