New England Patriots vs L.a. Rams Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

FOX will broadcast the week 11 non-conference matchup between the Rams and Patriots from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Patriots are the underdog at +175 on the money line, while the Rams are favored by -4.5 points. The over/under line is set at 43.5 points for this game, which is set to kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th.

Los Angeles vs. New England Key Information

• Teams: Rams at Patriots
• Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds LAR -213 | NE +175 O/U 43.5

The Rams Can Win If…

After two straight wins, the Rams couldn’t keep it going in week 10, falling to the Dolphins 23-15 at home. Los Angeles entered the game as 2-point favorites but couldn’t get the job done, dropping their record to 4-5. They are now 3rd in the NFC West with a 2-1 division record. Our power rankings have the Rams 18th heading into week 11, and they have an 18.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Against the spread, the Rams are 3-6 this season, with an average scoring margin of -3.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-5, and the under has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have featured 44.7 points, compared to a line of 47.1.

Heading into week 11, the Rams rank 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 17th in the NFL in both points per game (20.6) and yards per game (328.7). Los Angeles has been pass-heavy, with 35.9 attempts per game, ranking 5th in the league, and they are 8th in passing yards per game (234.6). On the ground, they rank 20th in rushing attempts and 26th in rushing yards per game (94.1). The Rams have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 34.6% of their attempts, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They have also been slow starters, ranking 29th in 1st-quarter scoring.

Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards in week 10, completing 32 of 46 passes but failing to throw a touchdown while being intercepted once and sacked 4 times. Kyren Williams led the team in rushing with 62 yards on 15 carries, while Puka Nacua had 9 receptions for 98 yards. The Rams failed to score in the 1st and 3rd quarters, putting up 9 points in the 4th quarter against Miami.

The Rams’ defense gave up 171 passing yards to the Dolphins in their most recent game, with Miami completing 71.4% of their passes. Despite this, the Rams’ defense limited big plays, as they allowed just 6.1 yards per attempt. The Rams’ defense also came up with three sacks and one interception, holding Miami to 23 points in a 23-15 loss.

On the ground, the Rams allowed just 67 rushing yards on 22 attempts, giving them a yards per attempt of 3.0. Additionally, the Rams’ defense held the Dolphins to a 46.2% third-down conversion rate.

• Spanning across their last three games, Los Angeles have gone 2-1. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Los Angeles has a record of 4-6. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 4-6 and an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Patriots Can Win If…

Heading into week 11, the Patriots sit 30th in our power rankings, with just a 1% chance of making the playoffs. New England is 3-7 this season, putting them 4th in the AFC East. They are 1-3 at home and 2-4 on the road, and have a -6 scoring margin. Against the spread, the Patriots are 4-5-1, and they’ve covered in three straight games, including their 16-point win over the Bears in week 10.

In week 9, the Patriots couldn’t build on their win over the Jets, losing 20-17 to the Titans. They were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and managed to cover the spread. The O/U line was 38, and the teams combined for 37 points. New England’s O/U record is 5-5 this season, and the under has hit in their last two games.

Heading into week 11, the Patriots sit 28th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 32nd in passing yards per game (156.8) and lead the league in passing attempts, with 30.9 per game. On the ground, they average 114.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 22nd, on 26 attempts per game.

Drake Maye threw for 184 yards (15/25) and a touchdown in week 10, with one interception. Rhamondre Stevenson had 20 carries for 74 yards, and Austin Hooper led the team with 3 catches for 64 yards. New England scored on just 1 of 5 red zone trips and converted 5 of 14 third downs in their win over the Bears.

New England’s defense was dominant in their 19-3 win over the Bears, allowing just 69 passing yards and forcing Chicago to go 1 of 14 on third down. They also recorded an incredible 9 sacks in the game. The Patriots’ run defense allowed just 73 yards on 20 attempts, and their secondary limited the Bears to 2.3 passing yards per attempt.

Overall, the Patriots allowed only 142 total yards and held the Bears to a 7.1% third-down conversion rate. New England’s defense also came up with 13 tackles for loss in addition to their 9 sacks.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Patriots have gone 1-2 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 2-1.
• The Patriots have gone 2-8 over their last ten regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 2-6-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Patriots to cover as home underdogs in their matchup against the Rams. The point spread line for this week 11 game is sitting at +4.5 in favor of the Patriots, and we have them winning by a score of 30-21.

As for the over/under line, we like the over with a predicted combined score of 51 points, and with the O/U line at 43.5 points, there is a lot of room between our projection and the line.

Patriots Eyeing First Win Streak Since 2022 This Week vs. Rams

The New England Patriots (3-7) will look to achieve a rare milestone in their recent history: back-to-back victories. They aim to accomplish this Sunday when they host the Los Angeles Rams (4-5) at Gillette Stadium.

After a commanding 19-3 win over the Chicago Bears, the Patriots are focused on maintaining momentum and earning consecutive victories for the first time since a three-game streak in 2022. Meanwhile, the Rams, coming off a short week after a 23-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins, are eager to rebound and keep their NFC West playoff hopes alive.

Patriots Look to Build on Defensive Dominance

The Patriots’ defense stole the show last Sunday, tallying a season-high nine sacks and limiting the Bears to just 142 total yards and a 1-for-14 performance on third downs. New England’s defensive effort marked one of its most complete performances of the season, setting the tone for what head coach Jerod Mayo hopes will be a turning point.

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who went 19-for-30 for 217 yards and a touchdown against Chicago, emphasized the importance of maintaining a “sense of urgency.”

“Big win from there, and just build on it,” Maye said. “We’ve got another chance here at home. L.A.’s coming off a short week, so we’ve got to prepare for them. They’re good up front on defense, so we’re preparing for that.”

Despite the win, the Patriots’ offense left points on the table. Cleaning up mistakes and finding consistency in the red zone will be key against a Rams defense that has shown flashes of dominance.

Rams Looking to Regain Momentum

The Rams saw their three-game winning streak snapped against the Dolphins on Monday night, failing to find the end zone and settling for five field goals by Joshua Karty. Rookie linebacker Jared Verse stood out defensively, recording four tackles (two for loss), a sack, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.

Verse, however, believes there’s room for improvement.

“I’ll never be satisfied with the way I play,” Verse said. “There were definitely a couple plays here and there that I could have made if I did a little bit more.”

Los Angeles faces added challenges with a banged-up roster. Offensive linemen Joe Noteboom and Rob Havenstein both missed practice Wednesday due to ankle injuries, while several other key contributors, including linebacker Byron Young (knee) and cornerback Charles Woods (ankle), are nursing injuries.

Key Matchups

Patriots Defense vs. Rams Offensive Line

The Patriots’ defensive line will look to exploit a Rams offensive line riddled with injuries. If New England can replicate its pass-rushing success from last week, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford could face significant pressure.

Drake Maye vs. Rams Secondary

Maye’s progression continues to be a focal point for New England. While the Rams’ defense is anchored by Jared Verse, Maye will need to make quicker decisions and avoid costly mistakes against an aggressive secondary.

Jared Verse vs. Patriots Offensive Line

Verse has been a revelation for the Rams this season. New England’s offensive line will need to neutralize his impact to give Maye time to operate and establish a running game.

Injury Updates

The Patriots face a few injury concerns heading into the matchup, with defensive end Deatrich Wise (foot) and linebacker Sione Takitaki (knee) sidelined during Wednesday’s practice. Tight end Hunter Henry (foot) and safety Kyle Dugger (ankle) were limited participants.

For the Rams, injuries to offensive linemen Noteboom and Havenstein could impact their ability to protect Stafford and open up running lanes.

Unlock Your Betting Potential! Sign Up Now.

Outlook

Both teams have plenty on the line this week. For the Patriots, a win could signal progress under their young quarterback and breathe life into their season. For the Rams, it’s an opportunity to stay within reach of the NFC playoff picture despite mounting injuries.

Prediction: Patriots 20, Rams 17