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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs December 25th 2024
The Chiefs are favored on the road in their week 17 matchup against the Steelers. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Wednesday, December 25th, is being televised on NFLX. The Chiefs’ money line odds are -146, while the Steelers’ odds are +123. Kansas City is -2.5 point road favorites, and the over/under line is 42.5 points.
Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh Key Information
- Teams: Chiefs at Steelers
- Where: Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh
- Date: Wednesday, December 25th
- Betting Odds KC -146 | PIT +123 O/U 42.5
The Chiefs Can Win If…
With a 14-1 record, the Chiefs hold the top spot in the AFC standings and have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC West. Kansas City is on a five-game winning streak, including a 27-19 victory over the Texans in week 16. They were favored by 3 points in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 6-8-1 this season.
Heading into week 17, the Chiefs rank 6th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game and an O/U record of 7-8. Their games have averaged 42.3 points, compared to an average line of 44.1.
Patrick Mahomes has been consistent over his last three games, with passer ratings of 93 in week 16, 78 in week 15, and 88 in week 14. Against the Texans in week 16, he threw for 260 yards (28/41) and a touchdown without an interception. Xavier Worthy led the receiving corps with 7 catches for 65 yards, while Kareem Hunt added 55 rushing yards on 11 carries.
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Heading into week 17, the Chiefs are 8th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in 3rd-down conversions and are 5th in passing attempts per game. However, they rank 23rd in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 3rd in red zone attempts.
The Chiefs’ defense allowed two passing touchdowns in their 27-19 win over the Texans, giving up 227 yards through the air. They defended the run well, allowing just 84 yards on 17 attempts. Despite this, the Texans still averaged 4.9 yards per attempt on the ground. Kansas City’s defense forced two interceptions and held Houston to a 59% completion percentage.
On third downs, the Texans converted 53.8% of their chances. The Chiefs’ defense managed two sacks and had a positive differential in quarterback hits and tackles for loss.
- Over their last three games, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Chiefs have gone 9-1 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 3-7 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.
The Steelers Can Win If…
Despite two straight losses, the Steelers remain atop the AFC North with a 10-5 record. After a week 14 win over the Browns, Pittsburgh dropped their next two games, including a 34-17 loss to the Ravens in week 16. They were 7-point underdogs in that matchup, but couldn’t cover the spread. The O/U line was set at 44 points, with the teams combining for 51.
According to our projections, the Steelers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 47.4% chance of winning the division. They rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. Pittsburgh is 10-5 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +3.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 8-7, with their games averaging 43.5 points (the average line has been 41.3).
Heading into week 17, the Steelers are 19th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 19th in the NFL in yards per game (324.9) and 12th in points per game (23.5). Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on the run game, ranking 2nd in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing yards per game. On the passing side, they are 25th in both passing attempts and passing yards per game, with Russell Wilson throwing for 217 yards (22/33) and 2 touchdowns in week 16.
Your Next Win Starts Now!
In week 16, the Steelers scored 17 points in a loss to the Ravens, with 10 of those coming in the 2nd quarter. They converted 40% of their 3rd downs and scored on both of their red zone trips. Calvin Austin III led the team with 4 catches for 65 yards, while Jaylen Warren had 48 rushing yards on 12 carries.
In their 34-17 loss to the Ravens, the Steelers’ defense gave up 220 rushing yards on 38 attempts, including a 68-yard touchdown run by Latavius Murray. Despite allowing 418 total yards, Pittsburgh’s defense did manage to force one interception. The Ravens were also able to exploit the Steelers through the air, with three passing touchdowns and 198 yards passing on just 15 completions.
Pittsburgh’s defense struggled to generate pressure, finishing with only one sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in the game. Overall, they allowed Baltimore to convert on 40% of their third down attempts.
- Pittsburgh has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. This also includes going 3-0 ATS and an over-under mark of 1-2.
- Pittsburgh has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 7-3 against the spread, while going 5-5 on the over-under.
The Lean
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Steelers to cover as home underdogs in this week 17 matchup against the Chiefs. The point spread lines have the Steelers at +2.5, and we have them not only covering but winning 24-21.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 42.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 45 points.
Chiefs, Steelers Ready for Short-Rest Christmas Showdown
The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) are preparing for a rare Christmas Day clash under challenging conditions, with both teams playing their third game in just 11 days. The matchup on Wednesday promises high stakes as the Chiefs chase the AFC’s top seed and the Steelers fight to keep their division hopes alive.
Chiefs Aim for AFC Supremacy
A win in Pittsburgh would secure the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for Kansas City. The Chiefs, riding a five-game winning streak, have matched the franchise’s 14-win mark for the third time in five years and are on the brink of setting a new single-season record with 15 victories.
Patrick Mahomes, despite nursing a sore ankle, expressed enthusiasm for playing on Christmas but acknowledged the physical toll.
“You’re not going to feel great,” Mahomes said. “You don’t make excuses in this league. You go out and play football … It’ll be rocking playing on Christmas, so everybody’s going to be watching.”
A hallmark of Kansas City’s current streak has been ball security. The Chiefs have gone five games without committing a turnover, a critical factor as they look to maintain their momentum.
Steelers Seek Redemption
The Steelers are reeling from a 34-17 loss to the Ravens, a game in which quarterback Russell Wilson’s miscues proved costly. Wilson fumbled near the goal line and threw a pick-six to Baltimore’s Marlon Humphrey, leaving Pittsburgh in a must-win situation to secure the AFC North.
“I don’t think there’s enough time to really sulk or worry,” Wilson said. “We can’t let a tough game like this take us into a negative state of mind because there’s a lot more to play for.”
Wilson’s first multi-turnover game in nine outings as a Steeler isn’t shaking coach Mike Tomlin’s confidence. “He’s tough on himself because he’s got a desire to be great,” Tomlin said. “I don’t expect that to be an issue in terms of his readiness this week.”
Pittsburgh’s injury concerns include cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (knee) and receiver Ben Skowronek (hip), both of whom missed Monday’s walkthrough. However, standout receiver George Pickens (hamstring) practiced fully and is expected to return.
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Injury Watch
Kansas City is also managing injuries. Defensive end Chris Jones (calf) missed Monday’s walkthrough after being hurt against Houston, while left tackle D.J. Humphries (hamstring) and safety Chamarri Conner (concussion) were also sidelined. Mahomes reported progress with his sore ankle, which he said is feeling better than last week.
Recent History
The Chiefs have won the last three matchups against the Steelers, including a dominant 42-21 victory in the AFC wild-card round in January 2022. Kansas City is eager to avenge last year’s 20-14 Christmas Day loss to the Raiders, while Pittsburgh hopes to snap its skid and keep its playoff hopes alive.
What’s at Stake
For Kansas City, a win solidifies their status as the AFC’s top team and sets the stage for a historic 15-win season. For Pittsburgh, victory is essential to stay in the hunt for the AFC North crown, with no margin for error left in the season. Both teams are bracing for a physical, high-intensity showdown as they balance recovery and readiness on short rest.
