L.a. Rams vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Predictions November 11th 2024

Rams vs Dolphins November 11th 2024

ESPN will be covering this week 10 non-conference matchup between the Rams and Dolphins, which is set to kick off at 8:15 ET. The Rams are the favorite with a point spread of -2.5 and their money line odds are -140. The Dolphins’ money line odds are +118, and the over/under line is 50.5 points.

Miami vs. Los Angeles Key Information

• Teams: Dolphins at Rams
• Where: SoFi Stadium Inglewood
• Date: Monday, November 11th
• Betting Odds LAR -140 | MIA +118 O/U 50.5

The Dolphins Can Win If…

With a 2-6 record, the Dolphins sit 3rd in the AFC East and 22nd in our power rankings. They have a -7.9 scoring margin and are 2-6 against the spread. Miami is 1-4 ATS as favorites and 1-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 3-5, with the over hitting in two straight games.

Miami has a 6.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.1% chance of winning the division. They have lost three in a row, including a 30-27 loss to the Bills in week 9. The Dolphins were +6 and covered the spread, bringing their record to 2-6.

Heading into week 10, the Dolphins rank 26th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 15.5 points per game, which is 30th in the NFL. They are 20th in the league in passing yards per game (191) on 31.6 attempts per game, and they rank 15th in red zone attempts, converting 54.5% of them, which ranks 4th in the NFL.

In week 9, Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of 28 passes for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 124. Tyreek Hill led the team with 80 receiving yards on 4 catches, while De’Von Achane had 63 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

In their 30-27 loss to the Bills, the Dolphins’ defense gave up three passing touchdowns and allowed Buffalo to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. Miami’s defense did come up with one interception and held the Bills to 94 rushing yards on 19 attempts. However, Buffalo finished with 231 passing yards and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt through the air.

Miami’s defense managed just one sack in the game and allowed Buffalo to complete 64.1% of their passes. Despite this, the Dolphins did win the quarterback hit battle by a margin of +1.

• Miami has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Dolphins have gone 2-8 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 2-8 to go along with an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Rams Can Win If…

After a week 5 loss to the Packers, the Rams have bounced back with three straight wins, including a 26-20 victory over the Seahawks in week 9. This puts Los Angeles at 4-4, good for 2nd in the NFC West. They are 3-1 at home this season and 1-3 on the road.

Our projections give the Rams a 23.8% chance of making the playoffs and an 18.8% chance of winning the division. They rank 18th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 10. Against the spread, the Rams are 3-5, with an average scoring margin of -3 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-4, with their games averaging 45.5 points compared to an average line of 46.8.

Heading into week 10, the Rams are 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.2, and 18th in total yards per game with 328.9. Los Angeles ranks 9th in passing yards per game (231.8) and 26th in rushing, with 97.1 yards per game on the ground. They are 21st in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage.

Matthew Stafford threw for 298 yards (25/44) and 2 touchdowns in week 9 against the Seahawks. Cooper Kupp led the Rams with 11 receptions for 104 yards, while Kyren Williams had 22 carries for 69 yards. The Rams scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter and 7 in the 4th.

Even though the Rams gave up 424 yards on defense, they were able to come up with seven sacks and three interceptions in their 26-20 overtime win over the Seahawks. The Rams’ defense was especially tough on third downs, allowing the Seahawks to convert just 26.7% of their attempts. Despite giving up 317 passing yards, they held Seattle to 107 rushing yards on 33 attempts.

The Rams did give up three passing touchdowns, but their ability to pressure the quarterback was a key factor in the game. They also forced three turnovers and limited the Seahawks to a 61.8% completion percentage.

• Spanning across their last three games, Los Angeles have gone 2-1. However, they have only gone 1-2 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Los Angeles has a record of 8-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-4 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our pick against the spread for this Dolphins vs. Rams matchup is to take the Dolphins to cover as road underdogs. The point spread has the Dolphins at +2.5, and we actually have them winning 27-22. With this projected final score, we are taking the Dolphins to cover and win straight-up.

For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards the under, as the line is currently at 50.5 points. Our projections have these teams combining for 49 points, making the under a good bet for this week 10 matchup.

Weekly Football Picks

With Tua Tagovailoa Back, Dolphins Aim to Snap Losing Streak Against Surging Rams

The Los Angeles Rams are set to host the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football in Inglewood, California, with both teams determined to prove themselves at a critical point in the season. The Rams, rejuvenated by a three-game winning streak, are positioned to climb back into playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Dolphins hope quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s return can finally translate into a win, ending their recent skid.

Los Angeles Rams: Rising Momentum and Overcoming Setbacks

After a rough start, the Rams (4-4) have found their rhythm, winning three consecutive games. Their season opened with only one win in their first five games, hampered by injuries that plagued key offensive players like wide receivers Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle), who missed a combined total of nine games. With most of the team now back in action, the Rams are regaining their form.

Their most recent win, a thrilling 26-20 overtime victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9, showcased the Rams’ newfound resilience. They overcame a 10-point deficit after allowing two touchdowns just before halftime, rallying in overtime for the win. This bounce-back mentality has been a cornerstone of the Rams’ resurgence.

Offensive Adjustments Paying Off

The Rams’ offensive line, once riddled with absences and substitutions, has managed to stabilize. Despite ongoing issues—such as tackle Rob Havenstein being ruled out for Monday due to an ankle injury—the return of guard/center Jonah Jackson and the hopeful recovery of Steve Avila (both dealing with long-term injuries) could provide much-needed depth. Joe Noteboom also rejoined the lineup after recovering from an ankle injury.

With the line’s improvements, the Rams’ offense has come to life, averaging 25.3 points per game over their recent winning streak compared to 18.8 points during their rocky start. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford ranks 10th in the NFL with an average of 246.1 passing yards per game, while running back Kyren Williams, with 602 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, continues to be a key offensive force.

Emerging Defensive Talent

On defense, the Rams are adapting to life without All-Pro defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Young edge rushers like Byron Young, with four sacks, and rookie Jared Verse, contributing 3.5 sacks, have stepped up to maintain pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This growth has been central to the Rams’ improved performance on defense, with head coach Sean McVay noting the team’s “contagious energy and enthusiasm” on that side of the ball.

Miami Dolphins: A Fresh Spark with Tagovailoa Back

The Dolphins (2-6) are eager to convert their recent offensive resurgence into a win. Since Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion, Miami has scored 27 points in back-to-back games—significantly higher than the 10-point average they posted in the four games without him. However, these high-scoring games haven’t yet yielded victories, with Miami losing in nail-biters each time.

In their most recent contest against the Buffalo Bills, Miami battled fiercely but fell short in a 30-27 loss after a 61-yard game-winning field goal by Tyler Bass. Tagovailoa’s performance was strong, completing 25 of 28 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns, including a crucial late touchdown pass to Jaylen Waddle that tied the game with just under two minutes remaining.

The Impact of Tagovailoa on Miami’s Offense

Tagovailoa’s return has bolstered Miami’s offense, revitalizing both the passing and rushing attacks. Running back De’Von Achane has benefitted from the balanced offense, putting up 160 rushing yards and a touchdown over the past two games. Achane praised Tagovailoa’s leadership, saying, “He knows so much when it comes to this offense… He makes our job easy.”

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill has also regained his form, posting 152 receiving yards over the past two games. With Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins’ offense is more efficient and dynamic, posing a serious threat to any opponent.

Challenges from Injuries

The Dolphins are still contending with injuries of their own. Offensive lineman Austin Jackson (knee) and safety Jevon Holland (hand, knee) both missed Thursday’s practice. These absences could impact Miami’s ability to protect Tagovailoa and stop the Rams’ offense from finding its rhythm. However, the Dolphins are hopeful that their offensive momentum can overcome these setbacks.

Game Preview: Key Factors for Both Teams

• Rams’ Consistency on Offense and Defense: The Rams’ winning streak has been fueled by improvements in both offensive execution and defensive stability. Their ability to manage injuries, especially on the offensive line, and to pressure Miami’s offense will be critical. With players like Stafford and Williams leading the way, the Rams are primed to continue their offensive success.
• Dolphins’ Offensive Revitalization: Miami’s offense has gained momentum with Tagovailoa back in the lineup. For the Dolphins to break their losing streak, they’ll need to continue this balanced attack and put pressure on the Rams’ defensive line. Achane and Hill will be key in both the ground game and the passing game, testing the Rams’ defensive adjustments.
• Defensive Playmakers: Both teams will rely on defensive standouts to control the pace of the game. The Rams will look to Young and Verse to maintain pressure, while the Dolphins will need a strong showing from their defensive backfield to keep the Rams’ wide receivers in check.

Final Thoughts: High Stakes on Monday Night

With the Rams energized by their winning streak and the Dolphins eager to end their slump, Monday night’s game promises an exciting showdown. Los Angeles has momentum, but Miami’s offense has shown significant improvement with Tagovailoa back, setting up a clash between two teams fighting for their respective postseason ambitions. This matchup could be a pivotal moment in the season for both squads as they aim to make a statement on national television.