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Saints vs Broncos October 17th 2024
The Saints are the underdog in their week seven matchup against the Broncos, which is being played at 8:15 ET on Thursday, October 17th at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The game is being televised on AMZN, and the Saints’ money line odds are +105, while the Broncos are -124. Denver is favored by -1.5 on the road in this non-conference matchup. The over/under line is currently at 37 points.
Denver vs. New Orleans Key Information
- Teams: Broncos at Saints
- Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans
- Date: Thursday, October 17th
- Betting Odds DEN -124 | NO +105 O/U 37
The Broncos Can Win If…
After two straight wins, the Broncos couldn’t keep their streak going in week 6, falling 23-16 at home to the Chargers. This leaves Denver at 3-3, putting them 3rd in the AFC West. They have a +2.7 scoring margin and are 4-2 against the spread, including 3-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 3-3, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Heading into week 7, the Broncos have a 25.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.4% chance of winning the division. They rank 25th in our NFL power rankings. Denver is 2-1 on the road this season and will face the Saints in New Orleans this week.
Heading into week 7, the Broncos rank 30th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.7, and they also rank 22nd in first-quarter scoring. Denver is 29th in the league in total yards per game (278.2), and they are 28th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 25% success rate. The Broncos are 12th in red zone conversion percentage, scoring on 38.9% of their trips.
Bo Nix threw for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 6, with 1 interception. He found Devaughn Vele 4 times for 78 yards, and he also led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 6 carries. Denver scored all 16 of their points in the 4th quarter against the Chargers.
In their 23-16 loss to the Chargers, the Broncos’ defense allowed 350 total yards. They gave up 128 rushing yards on 38 attempts, but held the Chargers to 3.4 yards per attempt. The Broncos’ defense recorded three sacks and held the Chargers to a 38.9% third-down conversion rate.
In the passing game, the Broncos allowed 222 yards on 21 completions, with the Chargers converting on 61.1% of their third down attempts. Despite this, the Broncos’ defense did well in terms of generating pressure, leading in both tackles for loss and quarterback hits.
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- Denver will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
Through their last five games, the Broncos have a record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 3-2 while posting a 2-3 over-under mark.
- The Broncos have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.
The Saints Can Win If…
The Saints head into week 7 against the Broncos looking to snap a four-game losing streak, including a 51-27 home loss to the Bucs in week 6. This dropped New Orleans to 2-4, putting them 3rd in the NFC South. Our power rankings have the Saints 29th, and they have a 14.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 5.4% chance of winning the division.
New Orleans is 3-3 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +3.3 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-2, with their games averaging 52.3 points compared to an average line of 44.2.
Heading into week 7, the Saints are 14th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.8 points per game, and they rank 7th in first-quarter scoring. New Orleans is 18th in passing yards per game (200.3) and 22nd in pass attempts. On the ground, they average 119.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 13th, on 29 attempts per game.
In week 6, the Saints were shut out in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters, scoring all 27 of their points in the 2nd quarter. Spencer Rattler threw for 243 yards, completing 22 of 40 passes, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Alvin Kamara had 40 rushing yards on 13 carries, and Foster Moreau led the team with 54 receiving yards on 2 catches.
In their 51-27 loss to the Buccaneers, the Saints’ defense gave up 594 yards and 51 points. They struggled to stop the run, allowing 277 rushing yards on just 35 attempts, with Tampa Bay averaging 7.9 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite forcing three interceptions, New Orleans allowed four passing touchdowns and 317 yards through the air.
On third downs, the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to convert 60% of their chances. New Orleans managed only one sack and had a negative tackles for loss differential in the game.
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- Across New Orleans’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
Over their last five games, the Saints have gone 3-2 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 3-2 (last 5). They had an over/under mark of 3-2 in those same games.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Saints have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record vs the spread sits at 4-6 in these matchups, while posting a 5-5 over-under mark.
The Lean
For this week seven matchup between the Broncos and Saints, we have the Broncos coming out on top by a score of 18-11. Even though the Saints are the home team, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as 1.5-point favorites.
With the line sitting at 37 points, we like the under, with our projected combined score coming in at 29 points.
Broncos vs. Saints – Betting Odds, Key Insights, and Predictions
The Week 7 NFL matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints promises to be a close contest, with Denver entering as a slight favorite. The game will take place on Thursday, October 17th, at 8:15 PM ET in the Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, and will be televised on Amazon Prime Video (AMZN).
Betting Lines:
- Moneyline: Broncos -124 | Saints +105
- Spread: Broncos -1.5
- Over/Under: 37 points
This breakdown explores the key statistics, recent performance, and betting strategies for the game.
Broncos vs. Saints: Key Information
- Date: October 17th, 2024
- Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
- Broadcast: Amazon Prime (AMZN)
Denver Broncos: Can They Bounce Back?
Current Record: 3-3 (3rd in AFC West)
After a disappointing 23-16 home loss to the Chargers in Week 6, the Broncos are looking to bounce back. Despite the loss, Denver has been competitive in the betting market, with a 4-2 record against the spread (ATS) and 2-1 on the road. Their offensive struggles, combined with a strong defense, make them an interesting pick heading into this matchup.
Key Offensive Stats:
- Points per Game: 18.7 (22nd in NFL)
- Yards per Game: 278.2 (29th in NFL)
- 3rd-Down Conversions: 25% (28th in NFL)
Denver’s offense, led by quarterback Bo Nix, has been inconsistent. Nix threw for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 6 but was largely ineffective until the fourth quarter when all of Denver’s 16 points were scored. Denver’s passing game ranks in the bottom third of the league, while their 3rd-down conversion rate is one of the worst at just 25%.
Defensive Highlights:
- Sacks: 3 in Week 6
- 3rd-Down Defense: Held the Chargers to 38.9% conversion rate
- Yards Allowed: 350 total yards (Week 6)
Denver’s defense is a strong point, especially in generating pressure. They managed three sacks and numerous quarterback hits against the Chargers. While they allowed 128 rushing yards, the defense has been able to keep games within reach by limiting third-down conversions and controlling the pace.
Recent Performance Trends:
- ATS Record (Last 5 Games): 3-2
- Over/Under Record: 2-3
Denver’s defense-first approach makes them a difficult team to score against, especially for teams like the Saints who have struggled recently on offense. The Broncos’ ability to pressure the quarterback will be key to stifling the Saints’ attack.
New Orleans Saints: Can They Stop the Slide?
Current Record: 2-4 (3rd in NFC South)
The Saints are reeling from a four-game losing streak, including a crushing 51-27 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 6. New Orleans has struggled to put together consistent performances on both sides of the ball, and they enter Week 7 ranked 29th in power rankings.
Offensive Struggles:
- Points per Game: 27.8 (4th in NFL)
- Passing Yards per Game: 200.3 (18th in NFL)
- Rushing Yards per Game: 119.5 (13th in NFL)
Despite their high scoring average, the Saints’ offensive output has been inconsistent. In Week 6, quarterback Spencer Rattler threw for 243 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. New Orleans was shut out in three of the four quarters, scoring all 27 points in the second quarter. Their offense has flashes of explosiveness but lacks consistency, particularly in sustaining drives.
Defensive Woes:
- Yards Allowed (Week 6): 594 total yards (277 rushing)
- Points Allowed: 51
- Third-Down Defense: Allowed conversions on 60% of attempts
New Orleans’ defense has been a major liability. In their Week 6 loss, they gave up over 270 rushing yards and allowed Tampa Bay to average 7.9 yards per carry. The Saints’ inability to stop the run or contain passing attacks could make it difficult for them to contain Denver, even with their struggling offense.
Recent Performance Trends:
- ATS Record (Last 5 Games): 1-4
- Over/Under Record: 4-2
While their games have typically hit the over, this has been due to their defense’s inability to stop opposing teams. With such a porous defense, the Saints will need a significant turnaround to keep the game close against Denver’s more controlled and efficient style of play.
The Betting Lean: Broncos to Cover, and the Under
Predicted Score: Broncos 18, Saints 11
This game is likely to be a low-scoring affair, driven by Denver’s solid defense and the Saints’ inability to stop opponents on the ground or in the air. Here’s why we recommend betting on Denver and the under:
- Broncos’ Defensive Edge: Denver’s ability to generate pressure and contain opposing offenses will be critical. New Orleans’ offensive line has been inconsistent, and Denver should be able to capitalize on that, especially in a loud, challenging Superdome environment.
- Saints’ Defensive Weakness: New Orleans’ inability to stop the run and cover downfield makes them vulnerable, even to a struggling Broncos offense. If Denver can improve their 3rd-down conversion rate, they could control the clock and keep the Saints’ offense off the field.
- The Under: With the over/under set at 37 points, expect a low-scoring game. Denver’s offense is not explosive, and New Orleans will likely struggle to score consistently against a solid Broncos defense. The predicted combined score of 29 points makes the under a safer bet.
Betting Strategy:
- Pick: Broncos to cover (-1.5)
- Total: Bet on the under (37)
With a projected final score of 18-11, the Broncos are favored to win a defensive battle, covering the spread and keeping the total score under the 37-point line. Despite being on the road, Denver’s defense gives them the edge, while the Saints’ recent form raises concerns about their ability to perform consistently.
Conclusion:
This Week 7 matchup is expected to be a low-scoring contest, where Denver’s defense and the Saints’ struggling form make the Broncos the better pick. Bettors should lean toward Denver covering the spread and the total going under 37 points.
