New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

FOX will broadcast the week 11 non-conference matchup between the Browns and Saints, taking place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans at 1:00 ET. The Saints are the slight favorite with a point spread of -1 and a money line of -116. The Browns’ money line odds are -104, and the over/under line is set at 44 points.

Cleveland vs. New Orleans Key Information

• Teams: Browns at Saints
• Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds NO -116 | CLE -104 O/U 44

The Browns Can Win If…

Heading into week 11, the Browns sit 19th in our NFL power rankings and have a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs. Cleveland is 2-7 this season, which puts them 4th in the AFC North. They are 1-1 in division games and 2-3 in conference play. The Browns are 1-4 at home and 1-3 on the road.

Against the spread, Cleveland is 3-6, with all three of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. Their average scoring margin is -7.2 points per game. The Browns’ O/U record is 3-6, with their games averaging 40.1 points per game.

Heading into week 11, the Browns rank 31st in our offensive power rankings, averaging 16.4 points per game, which is 26th in the NFL. They are 31st in passing yards per game (183.4) despite ranking 3rd in pass attempts. On the ground, they average 91 rushing yards per game, which ranks 28th, on 22.7 attempts per game. Cleveland has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 28.7% of their attempts, which ranks 29th in the league. However, they lead the NFL in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 9, Jameis Winston threw for 235 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 50. He was sacked 6 times. Nick Chubb rushed for 39 yards on 15 carries, while Cedric Tillman had 6 receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown. Cleveland scored 7 points in the 4th quarter after being shut out in the 1st and 3rd quarters.

The Browns’ defense gave up 27 points in their recent 27-10 loss to the Chargers, but they did manage to sack the quarterback six times. Despite the pressure they put on the quarterback, the Chargers still had success, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and throwing for 246 yards. Cleveland’s run defense allowed 96 yards on 23 attempts.

Offensively, the Browns struggled on third down, converting just 35.7% of their third down attempts. They also allowed two passing touchdowns and a 66.7% completion rate to the Chargers.

• Cleveland has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Against the spread, Cleveland went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Across Cleveland’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 2-8. In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.

The Saints Can Win If…

After seven straight losses, the Saints finally got back in the win column with a 20-17 victory over the Falcons in week 10, bringing their record to 3-7. New Orleans was a 3.5-point underdog at home, but they managed to pull off the win and cover the spread. The combined 37 points fell short of the 47-point line. Before this, the Saints had lost to the Panthers, Chargers, Broncos, Bucs, Chiefs, and Falcons.

Heading into week 11, New Orleans ranks 21st in our power rankings and has a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3rd in the NFC South with a 2-3 division record. Against the spread, the Saints are 4-6, with a -1.9 average scoring margin. Their O/U record is 6-4, with their games averaging 47.3 points.

Heading into week 11, the Saints rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 13th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.7, and sit 16th in passing yards per game with 212.4. On the ground, they average 122.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 13th, on 28.4 attempts per game. New Orleans is 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.2% success rate.

Derek Carr posted a passer rating of 126 in week 10, throwing for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Alvin Kamara had 17 carries for 55 yards, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with 3 catches for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Saints scored all 17 of their points in the 2nd quarter against Atlanta.

Despite giving up 468 yards to the Falcons in their most recent game, the Saints’ defense came up with three sacks and held Atlanta to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down. New Orleans also limited the Falcons to 181 rushing yards on 32 attempts. The Saints defended the pass well, allowing 287 yards through the air and not giving up any passing touchdowns.

New Orleans’ defense also came up with one interception and held Atlanta to a 60.5% completion rate. The Saints won the battle in the trenches, with more tackles for loss and eight more quarterback hits than the Falcons.

• Through their last three regular season contests, New Orleans has a record of 1-2. Against the spread, New Orleans went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• New Orleans has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, New Orleans went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Saints to cover as home favorites in this week 11 matchup between the Browns and Saints. Although the Browns are currently +1 favorites, our pick is to take the Saints to cover at -1. Our projected final score is 25-20 in favor of the Saints.

For an over/under pick, we like taking the over, with a projected combined score of 45 points and the line sitting at 44 points.

Winston Brings Browns to New Orleans for Critical Matchup

The New Orleans Saints, fresh off snapping a seven-game losing streak under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, will look to keep momentum alive when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. Former Saints quarterback Jameis Winston returns to the Superdome in a starting role for Cleveland, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.

Saints Aim to Build on Rizzi-Led Resurgence

The Saints (3-7) secured a much-needed 20-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons last week, marking their first win since Rizzi took over as head coach. New Orleans’ defense showed improvement, delivering critical stops in the fourth quarter to seal the game.

“We ended the game with the defense on the field,” Rizzi said. “That goes a long way toward building confidence.”

However, the Saints’ defense still faces significant challenges, ranking 24th in scoring, 27th in rushing, and 29th in pass defense. The unit allowed the Falcons to rush for 181 yards, including a 37-yard touchdown by Bijan Robinson, and Rizzi emphasized that more progress is needed.

“We’re still not tackling good enough,” Rizzi said. “We’re still giving up too many rushing yards and too many explosive plays.”

The Saints’ offense will lean on quarterback Derek Carr, running back Alvin Kamara, and wide receiver Chris Olave to sustain drives against a Browns team desperate for its own turnaround.

Jameis Winston’s Return: Redemption in Focus

Winston, the former No. 1 overall draft pick, now leads the Browns (2-7) after starter Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. While Winston has struggled with turnovers—most recently throwing three interceptions in a 27-10 loss to the Chargers—he remains focused on improving Cleveland’s fortunes.

“I’m grateful for this moment,” Winston said. “Opportunities only come so often, so it’s definitely a privilege to lead the Cleveland Browns.”

Winston’s familiarity with the Superdome and his time as a Saint could give him an edge. After signing with New Orleans in 2020 as Drew Brees’ understudy, Winston initially excelled in a starting role, throwing 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions in 2021 before a knee injury derailed his season.

Cleveland’s offense has struggled, averaging just 17.3 points per game this season. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski stressed the need to jumpstart the run game during the team’s bye week.

“We have to run the ball way more efficiently than we are and find those explosives in the run game,” Stefanski said.

The Browns will rely on Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt in the ground attack against a Saints defense that has struggled to contain opposing rushers.

Key Matchups to Watch

Jameis Winston vs. Saints Defense

The Saints will need to capitalize on Winston’s turnover tendencies. Forcing mistakes could shift momentum and give New Orleans an edge.

Alvin Kamara vs. Browns Run Defense

Kamara’s dual-threat ability will test a Cleveland defense that ranks 16th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Browns’ Run Game vs. Saints’ Front Seven

If Cleveland can exploit New Orleans’ poor rushing defense, it could open up opportunities for Winston and the passing game.

Injuries

The Saints will be without starting guard Lucas Patrick (ankle) and running back Jamaal Williams (groin). Starting center Erik McCoy (groin) and linebacker Pete Werner (hand) are questionable.

The Browns are relatively healthy but will miss defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr. (knee).

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Prediction

With both teams desperate for a win, this game could come down to turnovers and late-game execution. The Saints’ defensive vulnerabilities give the Browns a chance, but New Orleans’ renewed energy under Rizzi and home-field advantage could prove decisive.

Prediction: Saints 23, Browns 17