New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions November 10th 2024

Saints vs Falcons November 10th 2024

FOX will be covering this week 10 NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Saints. The game, set for 1:00 ET at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, finds the Falcons favored on the road with a money line of -179. The Saints, with a money line of +151, are +3.5 point underdogs, and the over/under line is 46.5 points.

Atlanta vs. New Orleans Key Information

• Teams: Falcons at Saints
• Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans
• Date: Sunday, November 10th
• Betting Odds ATL -179 | NO +151 O/U 46.5

The Falcons Can Win If…

Atlanta heads into week 10 with a 6-3 record, putting them 1st in the NFC South. The Falcons have a 2-game winning streak, including a 27-21 win over the Cowboys in week 9. They also beat the Bucs in week 8, bouncing back from a week 7 loss to the Seahawks. Atlanta is 4-0 in division games and 6-1 in conference play. They are 3-0 on the road and 3-3 at home.

Our projections give the Falcons an 86% chance of making the playoffs and an 80% chance of winning the division. They rank 14th in our NFL power rankings. Atlanta has a +0.6 scoring margin and is 5-4 against the spread. Their O/U record is 4-5, with their games averaging 48.6 points.

Heading into week 10, the Falcons are 8th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in points per game, scoring 24.6, and 8th in yards per game, averaging 364.8. Atlanta ranks 6th in passing yards per game with 246.3, on 33 attempts per game, which is 12th in the league. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing yards per game, with 118.4, on 26.3 attempts per game, which ranks 19th.

In week 9, Kirk Cousins threw for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns, going 19/24 with a passer rating of 144. Bijan Robinson had 19 carries for 86 yards, and Darnell Mooney led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons scored in every quarter against the Cowboys, converting 3/3 red zone attempts, but struggled on third down, going 4/13.

Despite giving up 137 rushing yards on just 21 attempts, the Falcons’ defense held the Cowboys to a 23.1% conversion rate on third down in their 27-21 win over Dallas. Atlanta allowed 241 passing yards, with Dallas completing 31 passes, and two passing touchdowns. The Falcons’ defense also came up with three sacks in the game.

Overall, the Falcons gave up 378 total yards, but their ability to get off the field on third down was key. They also won the quarterback hit battle by four and held Dallas to a 62% completion percentage.

• Atlanta has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Atlanta has a record of 6-4. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Saints Can Win If…

After starting the season 2-0, the Saints have now dropped seven straight games, including a 23-22 loss to the Panthers in week 9. New Orleans entered the game as 7-point favorites but couldn’t get the win, bringing their record to 2-7. They now sit 4th in the NFC South with a 1-3 division record. Our projections give the Saints just a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.2% chance of winning the division.

Heading into week 10, the Saints rank 24th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -2.4 points per game and are 3-6 against the spread. Their O/U record is 6-3, with their games averaging 48.4 points per game.

Heading into week 10, the Saints rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 15th in the NFL in points per game (23) and 16th in yards per game (331.4). New Orleans has leaned on the run game, ranking 9th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game (125.3). On 3rd down, they are converting 38.1% of the time, which ranks 16th in the league.

Derek Carr threw for 236 yards (18/31) and a touchdown in week 9. Alvin Kamara had a big game, rushing for 155 yards on 29 carries and leading the team with 60 receiving yards. The Saints scored in every quarter against Carolina, including 6 points in the 4th quarter.

In their 23-22 loss to the Panthers, the Saints’ defense allowed just 166 passing yards on 16 completions. They defended the run well, giving up only 80 yards on 23 attempts. Despite this, the Saints allowed the Panthers to convert 40% of their third down attempts and score one passing touchdown. New Orleans’ offense had a chance to win the game late, but a 65-yard field goal attempt missed as time expired.

The Saints’ defense also came up with one interception and limited the Panthers to 246 total yards in the game. New Orleans allowed just one sack in the game.

• Through their last three regular season contests, New Orleans has a record of 0-3. In these contests, the team went just 0-3 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
• Across New Orleans’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

For this week 10 matchup between the Falcons and Saints, we have the Falcons coming out on top by a score of 25-22. Even though the Saints are the home team and are currently sitting at +3.5 point underdogs, we like the Falcons to cover the spread.

Our best bet for this one is to take the Saints to cover as home underdogs. As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 46.5 points, we have these teams combining for 47 points, making the over a great bet.

Weekly Football Picks

Falcons on a Roll, Saints Fight for Reset Amid Seven-Game Losing Streak

The NFC South clash between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints couldn’t come at a more critical time for both teams. As the Falcons soar to the top of the division, the Saints are left searching for a reset to salvage a challenging season. Atlanta, holding a two-game lead, aims for their first NFC South title since 2016, while New Orleans grapples with a seven-game losing streak, the longest in the league. Here’s a look at how these rivals are shaping up for Sunday’s matchup.

Falcons Focus on Division Dominance and Playoff Potential

With a record of 6-3, the Falcons lead the NFC South and remain undefeated within the division at 4-0. First-year head coach Raheem Morris has quickly built momentum and a sense of confidence within the team, openly stating they “feel really good about the guys we’ve got.” As the trade deadline passed, Atlanta chose stability over changes, keeping its roster intact for the stretch run.

The Falcons’ season has been defined by clutch plays and a balanced offense. Notably, their Week 4 win over New Orleans set them on a three-game winning streak that has since evolved into a 5-1 stretch over six games. That win was sealed by a game-winning 58-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo, which propelled the Falcons forward while sending the Saints into a spiral. Now, with renewed urgency, Atlanta is keen on solidifying its top spot with another divisional win.

Saints Seek Stability Amid Significant Changes

For the New Orleans Saints, currently 2-7, the season has taken a difficult turn. Starting 2-0, the Saints had high expectations, but after a series of losses and injuries to key players, the team has struggled to regain footing. This week, following their latest defeat in a 23-22 loss to Carolina, the Saints made a major organizational shift by firing head coach Dennis Allen. In his place, special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi was promoted to interim head coach. The Saints also traded All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore to Washington, signaling a partial rebuild with an eye on future draft capital.

New Orleans’ leadership believes that Rizzi’s fresh perspective and practice changes could offer the team a much-needed boost. “Everything will be evaluated and re-evaluated,” Rizzi said, emphasizing that the players must “get comfortable being uncomfortable.” With nine games already completed, the Saints hope that adjustments under Rizzi’s leadership will provide the stability and focus required to break the losing streak.

Saints’ Defensive Struggles a Major Factor

Despite Allen’s defensive expertise, the Saints’ defense ranks 28th in scoring this season. Defensive captain Tyrann Mathieu acknowledged the pressure on the defense, which had previously been a strength of the team. “We have to find a way to start having fun again,” Mathieu said, indicating the emotional toll the losing streak has had on the team. The defensive challenges were a key factor in the decision to part ways with Allen, who was initially promoted to head coach in 2021 due to his success as defensive coordinator.

With Joe Woods, the Saints’ defensive coordinator, stepping up to handle defensive play-calling duties, the team hopes for an immediate improvement. However, the Saints’ defensive unit has been hampered by both injuries and inconsistency, particularly with key players like cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry and wide receiver Chris Olave sidelined due to injuries.

Falcons Face Challenges but Remain Resilient

Atlanta’s path to this point hasn’t been without challenges. In addition to maintaining their winning record, they’ve dealt with critical injuries and competitive divisional games. Coach Morris acknowledges that while the Saints have struggled, New Orleans could pose a real threat given the urgency and energy that comes with a coaching change. “(The Saints are) able to start over and instill some different things,” he noted. This awareness has contributed to Atlanta’s increased focus as they aim to secure another division win and maintain their trajectory toward the playoffs.

Injury Concerns for Both Sides

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries that could impact their game on Sunday. Saints starters Chris Olave (concussion), Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring), and Lucas Patrick (ankle) missed practice midweek, leaving New Orleans with limited options. Atlanta, on the other hand, faces the potential absence of starting linebacker Matthew Judon due to illness. These absences may shift each team’s approach, with each side relying on depth players to step up in key moments.

Locker Room Morale and Player Resilience

For the Saints, morale remains a critical concern. Quarterback Derek Carr recently expressed his resolve, saying the team is “trying to get better every day” despite their backs being “against the wall.” Carr’s comments reflect the grit and determination within the locker room as the Saints fight to turn their season around. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ locker room is filled with optimism. The winning streak has fueled a collective confidence, making them more resilient to potential setbacks.

Sunday Showdown: A Pivotal Game for Both Teams

The upcoming game is pivotal for both the Falcons and the Saints. For Atlanta, a win would not only secure their lead in the NFC South but also bring them one step closer to their first division title in seven years. Meanwhile, the Saints are striving to salvage their season and regain morale under Rizzi’s guidance. Although a playoff spot may be out of reach, each game is an opportunity to develop resilience and evaluate potential for next season.

Final Thoughts: A Season-Defining Moment

Sunday’s game between these NFC South rivals could define the trajectory of each team for the remainder of the season. For the Falcons, victory would be another stride toward postseason success, reinforcing the progress they’ve made under Raheem Morris. For the Saints, this game represents a chance to stop the bleeding and begin a new chapter. As both teams head into the matchup, one riding a wave of confidence and the other desperately seeking stability, fans can expect a clash that goes beyond the score—a battle for momentum, pride, and the hope of a turnaround.