San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions Picks and Predictions December 30th 2024

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions December 30th 2024

ABC will broadcast this week 17 NFC matchup between the Lions and 49ers, which is set to kick off at 8:15 ET. The Lions are favored on the road with a point spread of -3.5 and a money line of -196. The 49ers, the home team, have a money line of +164, and the over/under line is at 50.5 points. The game is being played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.

Detroit vs. San Francisco Key Information

Teams: Lions at 49ers
Where: Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara
Date: Monday, December 30th
Betting Odds DET -196 | SF +164 O/U 50.5

The Lions Can Win If…

At 13-2, the Lions hold the top spot in our power rankings and have a 76.3% chance of winning the NFC North. They bounced back from a week 15 loss to the Bills with a 34-17 win over the Bears in week 16, covering the 6.5-point spread. The O/U line was 47.5, and the teams combined for 51 points.

Detroit is 10-4-1 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +12.9. Their O/U record is 8-6-1, with the over hitting in three straight games.

Jared Goff has been on fire over the last three games, posting passer ratings of 136 in week 16, 118 in week 15, and 109 in week 14. Against the Bears in week 16, he threw for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. Goff’s top target was Jameson Williams, who caught 5 passes for 143 yards. Detroit’s offense scored 34 points, with 329 passing yards and 146 rushing yards.

Heading into week 17, the Lions lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 32.9 points per game. They rank 2nd in passing yards per game (264.7) and 6th in rushing (143.9 yards per game). Despite leading the league in red zone attempts, they rank last in red zone conversion percentage.

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In their 34-17 win over the Bears, the Lions’ defense gave up 323 passing yards on 26 completions. Chicago managed just 59 yards rushing on 17 attempts. The Lions allowed two passing touchdowns, but they held the Bears to a 20% conversion rate on third down.

Despite giving up 382 total yards, Detroit’s defense managed two sacks and had a positive differential in quarterback hits and tackles for loss. The Bears averaged 8.1 yards per attempt in the passing game.

Detroit has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-1-1. Their over-under record in these matchups was 3-0.
Across Detroit’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 9-1. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-3-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-3-1.

The 49ers Can Win If…

Heading into week 17, the 49ers have dropped two straight games, including a 29-17 loss to the Dolphins in week 16. San Francisco was a 1.5-point favorite in that matchup but couldn’t get the win, bringing their record to 6-9. They now sit 4th in the NFC West with a 1-4 division record and are 12th in the conference standings. Our power rankings have the 49ers 9th entering week 17, but they have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Against the spread, San Francisco is 5-10 and has lost two in a row. They are 5-8 as the favorite and 0-2 as the underdog. Their average scoring margin is -1.2 points per game. The 49ers’ O/U record is 8-7, with their games averaging 45.3 points compared to an average line of 46.3.

Heading into week 17, the 49ers are 16th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.1 points per game, and they rank 8th in total offense with 365.7 yards per game. Despite being 21st in passing attempts, they are 7th in passing yards, with Brock Purdy throwing for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16. San Francisco is 10th in rushing, averaging 130 yards per game, but they will be without Jordan Mason, who is on IR with a high ankle sprain.

George Kittle has been Purdy’s top target, with 8 catches for 106 yards in week 16. Before that, he had 61 yards in week 15 and 151 yards in week 14. The 49ers are 10th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 42% success rate, and they rank 21st in red zone conversion percentage.

In their 29-17 loss to the Dolphins, the 49ers’ defense gave up 381 total yards and struggled to stop the run, allowing 166 rushing yards on just 30 attempts. They didn’t manage to record any sacks and came out with a -5 differential in quarterback hits. Despite this, they did hold Miami to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.

In the passing game, the 49ers allowed 215 yards through the air, with Miami completing 64.7% of their passes. San Francisco gave up one passing touchdown and allowed the Dolphins to gain 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

The 49ers have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
Through their last ten regular season contests, San Francisco has a record of 6-4. This includes going 4-6 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the 49ers to cover as home underdogs in this week 17 matchup between the 49ers and Lions. Right now, the point spread lines have the 49ers at -3.5, and we have them winning 27-22.

For this week 17 matchup, we have a point spread pick and an over/under pick. Starting with the over/under, with the line at 50.5 points, we have a prediction of 49 combined points, making the under a good pick in this one.

Lions Prepare for NFC Championship Rematch vs. Banged-Up 49ers

The Detroit Lions face a critical rematch with the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, with playoff implications looming large. Depending on the outcome of Sunday’s matchup between Minnesota and Green Bay, the Lions could either clinch the NFC North or need to wait until their regular-season finale to secure the division and top seed.

Lions Focused on Redemption

The Lions (13-2) vividly remember last year’s NFC Championship game, where they squandered a 24-7 halftime lead and fell to San Francisco, 34-31. Head coach Dan Campbell views this rematch as both a chance for redemption and a step toward postseason readiness.

“That experience, as difficult as it was, served us well moving forward into this year,” Campbell said. “You don’t like to lose, so you’ve got an opportunity with a team that got the best of you, and so you just want to go out and find a way to get a win.”

Offensive Depth a Key for Detroit

Even without power back David Montgomery, who is sidelined with a knee injury, the Lions’ offense has kept rolling. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs showcased his versatility in last week’s 34-17 win over Chicago, racking up 154 total yards and a touchdown on 27 touches. While Montgomery is expected back for the playoffs, Gibbs will remain a focal point against the 49ers.

Quarterback Jared Goff also continues to thrive, surpassing 4,000 passing yards for the season. Over his last six games, Goff has thrown for 17 touchdowns with just one interception, underscoring his efficiency and leadership in Detroit’s offensive surge.

Struggles and Injuries Plague 49ers

San Francisco (6-9) is out of playoff contention after losing five of its last six games. Injuries have decimated their roster, with running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, offensive tackle Trent Williams, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw all sidelined for the season. Premier receiver Brandon Aiyuk was lost early in the year, forcing the 49ers to rely heavily on quarterback Brock Purdy and tight end George Kittle.

Despite these challenges, Purdy has surpassed 300 passing yards in two of his last three games, while Kittle remains a consistent threat, leading the team in receiving yards in four of the last five contests.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged the adversity: “This year, just having a number of his guys down and things like that, it’s been harder for (Purdy). He fought through it all year and he’s got two more weeks to fight through it.”

Injury Report

San Francisco’s injury woes continue, with Trent Williams placed on injured reserve and Dre Greenlaw shut down for the remainder of the season. Running back Isaac Guerendo returned to practice on a limited basis after missing last week’s loss to Miami.

Detroit has its own concerns, with cornerback Terrion Arnold missing Thursday’s practice due to an illness.

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High-Stakes Matchup

For Detroit, the stakes are clear: win to secure the top seed or keep pace in the NFC playoff race. Goff knows that despite San Francisco’s struggles, the Lions will face a tough challenge.

“They’re a good team, I don’t care that they’re eliminated,” Goff said. “They have a lot of great players on that team that have played in big games, and they’re going to want to beat us, so we have to come out ready to go.”

Monday’s game is more than just a rematch—it’s a litmus test for both teams’ resilience and readiness in the face of adversity.