Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

The Cowboys and Steelers are set to kick off at 8:20 ET on Sunday, October 6th at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The game is being televised on NBC. The Steelers are favored at -2.5, with money line odds of -139, and the over/under line is set at 43 points. Dallas is the underdog with +116 money line odds.

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Dallas vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

• Teams: Cowboys at Steelers
• Where: Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds PIT -139 | DAL +116 O/U 43

The Cowboys Can Win If…

The Cowboys are now 2-2 after their 20-15 win over the Giants. Dallas didn’t cover the spread in their 5-point victory, as they were favored by -5.5 on the road. The combined 35 points resulted in the game going under the 45-point total line.

Dallas took an early 7-3 lead after Dak Prescott found Rico Dowdle for a touchdown in the first quarter. The Cowboys added a touchdown to CeeDee Lamb in the 2nd quarter, and although the Giants added a field goal in the 3rd, the Cowboys held on for the win with a late field goal from Brandon Aubrey.

The Cowboys’ offense had 14 first downs in their 20-15 win over the Giants, racking up 213 yards through the air on 27 passing attempts. They struggled on third down, converting only 30% of their chances, and they ran for just 80 yards on 23 attempts. Dak Prescott completed 81% of his passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 125.

Rico Dowdle led the team with 46 rushing yards, while CeeDee Lamb was the top receiver with 98 yards and a touchdown, which included a 55-yard reception. Dallas’ offense didn’t allow any interceptions and gave up just one sack in the game.

In their 20-15 win over the Giants, the Cowboys’ defense was tough to run against, allowing just 26 yards on the ground across 24 rushing attempts. Despite this, the Giants still managed to put up 303 yards of total offense. Dallas defended the pass well, giving up just 277 yards through the air and not allowing any passing touchdowns. They also picked off one pass and held the Giants to a 31.2% conversion rate on third down. The Giants completed 72.5% of their passes.

Dallas’ defense recorded one sack in the game and won the tackles for loss battle.

• Dallas has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 0-3 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Cowboys have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 3-7 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Steelers Can Win If…

Despite their 27-24 loss to the Colts, the Steelers are still sitting at 3-1 on the season. They were on the road for this one and favored by -2.5, making their straight-up loss a bit of a surprise. Pittsburgh’s comeback effort fell just short, as they were down 24-10 early in the 4th quarter. The Steelers put up 14 points in the 4th quarter, but it wasn’t quite enough to pull off the comeback.

Indianapolis jumped out to a 14-0 lead after the first quarter, and although the Steelers fought back to make it 14-3 at halftime, the Colts still extended their lead to 17-3 in the 3rd quarter. The over/under line for the game was 41 points, with the teams combining for 51 points.

In their 27-24 loss to the Colts, the Steelers’ offense accumulated 23 first downs and 358 total yards. Justin Fields led the passing game with 282 yards on 22 completions (64.7%), including one touchdown. Fields also had a good game running the ball, with 55 yards on 10 attempts, two of which resulted in touchdowns.

Despite a good performance on the ground with 122 rushing yards, Pittsburgh’s offense struggled to protect Fields, as he was sacked four times. George Pickens was the leading receiver with 113 yards on seven catches. The Steelers also missed some big-play opportunities, as Fields’ 34-yard average per attempt indicates.

In their most recent game, the Steelers’ defense allowed the Colts to convert on 53.3% of their third down attempts. The Steelers lost 27-24, giving up 358 yards and 133 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Against the pass, they allowed 225 yards and two touchdowns, with the Colts completing 63.3% of their passes.

Pittsburgh’s defense managed two sacks in the game but lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials by -1 in each category. This contributed to the Colts’ ability to sustain drives and put up 27 points in their narrow victory over the Steelers.

• Spanning across their last three games, Pittsburgh have gone 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across Pittsburgh’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 6-4. Their record vs the spread sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 4-6 over-under mark.

Dak Prescott, Injury-Riddled Cowboys Take Aim at Steelers

The storied rivalry between the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers is set to reignite on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 5. This matchup, featuring a history of three iconic Super Bowl battles, will see two teams grappling with early-season hurdles. With the Cowboys sitting at 2-2 and the Steelers at 3-1, both squads are eager to strengthen their playoff chances as they clash at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field.

Prescott Returns to Pittsburgh: A Look Back and Ahead

Quarterback Dak Prescott has only faced the Steelers once before, back in 2016 during his standout Offensive Rookie of the Year season. In that game, Prescott led the Cowboys to a dramatic 35-30 victory, part of an impressive 11-game winning streak for Dallas. Now, eight years later, Prescott returns to the Steel City at age 31, carrying the weight of being the NFL’s highest-paid player while attempting to rejuvenate a struggling offense.

Currently, the Cowboys rank last in the league in rushing yards per game, managing just 75.3 yards on the ground, which puts even more pressure on Prescott and the passing game. With a lack of reliable targets beyond All-Pro CeeDee Lamb, Prescott must shoulder much of the offensive burden himself.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin had high praise for Prescott ahead of the game, emphasizing his poise and versatility: “I got a lot of respect for Dak Prescott,” Tomlin said. “He’s got a steady demeanor, man. He utilizes his quarterback mobility in a very prudent way. He extends plays, he’ll run if given the opportunity. He’s got a real rapport, obviously. … His work with CeeDee Lamb is real impressive.”

Prescott’s Week 4 performance in a 20-15 win over the New York Giants was his best outing of the season so far. He threw two touchdown passes—one to CeeDee Lamb and another to running back Rico Dowdle—while posting a season-high passer rating of 125.5. With extra rest and preparation, Dallas hopes Prescott can replicate that success against a tougher Pittsburgh defense.

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Steelers’ Quarterback Situation: Justin Fields Steps Up

The Steelers, meanwhile, are adapting to a temporary change at quarterback. With veteran Russell Wilson recovering from a calf injury, Justin Fields remains at the helm of Pittsburgh’s offense. Fields delivered a strong showing in Week 4, throwing for 312 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 55 yards and adding two scores on the ground, in a 27-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Despite the close loss, head coach Mike Tomlin expressed confidence in Fields, praising his composure: “I didn’t feel any blinking,” Tomlin said of Fields’ performance. “Justin, we’ve talked about his steady demeanor in recent weeks in terms of the things that I’ve grown to know and understand about him. I think it’s really on display in moments like that.”

Fields’ balanced approach will be crucial as Pittsburgh looks to bounce back from their first loss of the season. With the Cowboys missing two of their top pass-rushers—Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (injured reserve)—Fields may find it easier to exploit Dallas’ defense.

Injury Concerns for Both Teams

The Cowboys head into Pittsburgh without several key defensive players, a situation that could significantly impact their chances. Defensive stars Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are both sidelined, meaning Dallas will need their second-string players to step up. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy acknowledged the challenge, emphasizing the importance of depth: “It’s definitely the unfortunate part of our game. It takes a lot of players to win in this league, week in and week out. It creates a great opportunity for others. That’s really our approach.”

Additionally, cornerback Caelen Carson, dealing with a shoulder issue, was limited in practice, and wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been ruled out following complications from a knee procedure. Cooks’ absence further strains the passing game, putting even more pressure on CeeDee Lamb to perform.

Pittsburgh has their own injury woes, with running back Jaylen Warren (knee), linebackers Nick Herbig (ankle), and Alex Highsmith (groin) missing practice this week. However, left guard Isaac Seumalo, recovering from a pectoral injury, was a full participant and may be ready for his season debut, providing a significant boost for the Steelers’ offensive line.

Injury Report: Steelers Report - Cowboys Report

Key Matchups and Strategies

Dak Prescott vs. Steelers’ Defense

With CeeDee Lamb as his primary target, Prescott will need accuracy and good decision-making against a Steelers defense known for disrupting passing lanes and creating turnovers. The Cowboys’ ineffective running game allows Pittsburgh to focus more heavily on containing Prescott, making protection from the offensive line crucial to Prescott’s success.

Justin Fields vs. Cowboys’ Injured Defense

Fields’ dual-threat capabilities will be a significant weapon against a Cowboys defense missing some of its best players. Without Parsons and Lawrence, Dallas may struggle to create pressure, which could allow Fields more time to find his targets or use his legs effectively. If Fields is given room to operate, Pittsburgh’s offense could present a significant challenge.

The Battle in the Trenches

The matchups between the offensive and defensive lines will be key in determining the game’s outcome. If Isaac Seumalo returns, the Steelers could gain an edge in protecting Fields and establishing a ground game. Dallas, on the other hand, needs to find a way to get their running game going to relieve some pressure off Prescott, starting with winning the battle up front.

Historical Rivalry and Legacy

The Cowboys-Steelers rivalry is one of the most iconic in NFL history, highlighted by three Super Bowl matchups. The last time these teams met in Pittsburgh, Dak Prescott led Dallas to a thrilling 35-30 victory. This time, both teams are in need of a win to strengthen their playoff prospects, adding another layer of intensity to this historic rivalry.

Game Prediction and Expectations

The Cowboys enter this matchup with a 2-2 record and lingering doubts about their ability to compete with top-tier teams. With Prescott leading an injury-riddled defense, Dallas will need a nearly flawless performance to emerge victorious. Meanwhile, the Steelers, despite their recent loss, have been the more consistent of the two teams and will benefit from playing at home.

Justin Fields’ ability to threaten both through the air and on the ground, coupled with the Steelers’ solid defensive unit, gives Pittsburgh a slight edge—especially against a Cowboys defense missing key players. However, if Prescott and Lamb can establish a rhythm early, and Dallas manages to find some success on the ground, they could make it a competitive affair.

Expect a close contest that could come down to late-game heroics, whether it’s Prescott’s arm or Fields’ legs making the difference. Given the injuries facing Dallas, the Steelers hold a slight advantage, but as history has shown, this rivalry is always full of surprises and prime-time drama.

The Lean

Our point-spread pick for this week five matchup between the Steelers and Cowboys is to take Dallas to cover as road underdogs. The current line has the Cowboys at +2.5, and although we have the Steelers winning 23-22, Dallas is our pick vs. the spread.

For the over/under, we like this game to go over, with a projected combined score of 45 points and the line sitting at 43 points.