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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints January 5th 2025
The Saints and Buccaneers will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 1:00 ET on FOX. The Buccaneers are heavily favored with a money line of -931, while the Saints’ money line sits at +608. The over/under line is 43.5 points, and the point spread favors the Buccaneers by -13.5 points in this week 18 matchup at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.
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New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay Key Information
- Teams: Saints at Buccaneers
- Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay
- Date: Sunday, January 5th
- Betting Odds TB -931 | NO +608 O/U 43.5
The Saints Can Win If…
With their playoff chances already at 0.0%, the Saints have now lost three straight games, including a 25-10 home loss to the Raiders in week 17. This dropped New Orleans to 5-11 on the season, putting them 29th in our NFL power rankings. In the NFC South, they sit in 3rd place with a 2-3 division record.
Against the spread, the Saints are 6-10, with an average scoring margin of -3.2 points per game. They have failed to cover in two straight games, including their week 17 loss to the Raiders, when they were 1.5-point underdogs. The over/under has gone under in five consecutive Saints games, bringing their O/U record to 7-9 this season.
Heading into week 18, the Saints are 20th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.9 points per game, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. They are 20th in passing attempts and 24th in passing yards per game, with 203.8. On the ground, they rank 16th in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards per game, averaging 118.1. New Orleans is 23rd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36% success rate, but they have been strong in the red zone, ranking 7th in conversion percentage.
Spencer Rattler threw for 218 yards in week 17, going 20/36 with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. The Saints struggled on 3rd down, converting just 1 of 10 attempts, and they failed to score in the red zone. They also failed to score in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters, with all 10 of their points coming in the 2nd quarter. Juwan Johnson led the team with 66 receiving yards on 6 catches.
In their 25-10 loss to the Raiders, the Saints’ defense allowed 388 total yards and struggled to stop the run, giving up 156 rushing yards on 38 attempts. They allowed two passing touchdowns and only managed one sack in the game. The Saints also allowed the Raiders to convert 55.6% of their third down attempts.
New Orleans did limit the Raiders to 6.6 yards per attempt through the air, with Las Vegas finishing with 232 passing yards and a 57.1% completion percentage. However, the Saints struggled to generate consistent pressure, as they lost the quarterback hit battle by a margin of -5.
- New Orleans has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 0-3.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Saints have gone 3-7 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 3-7 on the over-under.
The Buccaneers Can Win If…
Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers hold a 9-7 record, putting them 1st in the NFC South. Our projections give them an 86.2% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. Tampa Bay ranks 7th in our NFL power rankings. Against the spread, they are 10-6, with a +6.8 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in 3 straight games.
In week 17, the Bucs bounced back from a week 16 loss to the Cowboys by beating the Panthers 48-14. Tampa Bay covered the 10-point spread, and the 62 points scored went over the 47.5-point line. Before that, they had won 3 straight, including a 40-17 win over the Chargers in week 15.
Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers are 7th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 4th in the NFL in points per game (29.7) and 3rd in yards per game (399.9). Tampa Bay leads the league in 3rd-down conversions and ranks 3rd in red zone attempts, though they are 29th in red zone conversion percentage. Baker Mayfield has been on fire, throwing for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 17 against the Panthers, following a 303-yard performance in week 16.
Mike Evans had 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 17, while Bucky Irving rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries. The Bucs have been strong in the 1st quarter, leading the NFL with an average of 7.2 points. They are 12th in passing attempts and 10th in rushing attempts per game. Cade Otton is questionable for week 18 with a knee injury.
In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 39 rushing yards on 13 attempts by the Panthers. Despite giving up two passing touchdowns, Tampa Bay came away with a 48-14 win, as their defense put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, finishing with five sacks. The Buccaneers held the Panthers to just a 22.2% conversion rate on third down and limited them to 165 passing yards.
Tampa Bay’s defense was also tough against the run, allowing only 3 yards per attempt. They finished the game with a total of 5 sacks and held the Panthers to 204 total yards. Even though they gave up two passing touchdowns, the Buccaneers’ defense played a key role in their lopsided victory.
- Over their last three games, the Buccaneers have gone 2-1 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 3-0 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
- Through their last ten regular season contests, Tampa Bay has a record of 5-5. Against the spread, Tampa Bay went 6-4 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.
The Lean
Our pick vs. the spread is to take Tampa Bay to cover as home favorites in this week 18 matchup against the Saints. Despite the point spread being +13.5 in favor of New Orleans, we have Tampa Bay winning by a score of 30-14.
For this game, we are leaning towards taking the over, with the line sitting at 43.5 points. Our prediction is that these teams combine for 44 points, making the over a good play in this one.
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Bucs Seek NFC South Title Against Saints in High-Stakes Finale
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face a critical showdown with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, with the NFC South title on the line. For the Bucs, it’s a win-and-you’re-in scenario that also offers a chance to move up in the NFC playoff seeding.
Bucs in Control of Their Destiny
Tampa Bay (9-7) can claim its fourth consecutive NFC South crown with a victory over the Saints (5-11). If they win and Seattle defeats the Los Angeles Rams, the Bucs could move up to the No. 3 seed. However, the focus remains on securing a playoff berth first and foremost.
“We have a chance to control our own destiny, which is all you can ask for,” coach Todd Bowles said. “So we’ve got to go out and take it.”
The Buccaneers are riding a wave of momentum, winning five of six games since their bye week. Their latest triumph was a dominant 48-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers, where quarterback Baker Mayfield shined.
Mayfield, the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week, completed 27 of 32 passes for 359 yards and five touchdowns, earning a near-perfect passer rating of 153.0. Rookie running back Bucky Irving also impressed, rushing for 113 yards on 20 carries.
“I think that was probably the most consistent we’ve played for four quarters,” Mayfield said.
Saints Playing Spoiler
The Saints, eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, aim to end their season on a high note and spoil their division rival’s postseason hopes. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi has kept the team competitive, but New Orleans has dropped its last three games following a midseason resurgence.
“It’s just been a tough season overall,” safety Tyrann Mathieu said. “We just want to go to Tampa Bay — we know those guys have to win that game — so we know it’s going to be like a prime-time game. I think we need to show up with that intensity knowing that.”
Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will make his sixth start in place of the injured Derek Carr. Rattler has shown flashes of promise but struggled in his first meeting with Tampa Bay, a 51-27 loss on Oct. 13. After rallying to a 27-24 halftime lead in that game, the Saints were shut out 27-0 in the second half.
Key Players and Injuries
Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players:
- Saints: Derek Carr (shoulder), Alvin Kamara (groin), and Pete Werner (concussion protocol) missed practice Wednesday.
- Buccaneers: Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee), Jamel Dean (knee), and Cade Otton (knee) were absent from practice.
Emotional Weight for New Orleans
The Saints are also grappling with the emotional impact of a terrorist truck attack in New Orleans’ French Quarter, which killed 14 people and injured dozens. The tragedy has added a layer of resolve to their final game.
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“I feel like we’re playing this last game for this community,” Rizzi said.
The Stakes
The Buccaneers expect a “dogfight” as they aim to secure the division title and maintain their postseason momentum. The Saints, despite their struggles, bring pride and determination to disrupt Tampa Bay’s plans. With everything on the line for the Bucs, this matchup promises intensity and drama.
