Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders Picks and Predictions January 12th 2025

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders January 12th 2025

The Commanders are +153 on the money line as they face the Buccaneers in a Wild Card round matchup. The game, set for 8:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th, will be televised on NBC. The Buccaneers are favored at -182 on the money line and -3 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 50.5 points for this NFC matchup at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.

Washington vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Commanders at Buccaneers
• Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay
• Date: Sunday, January 12th
• Betting Odds TB -182 | WAS +153 O/U 50.5

The Commanders Can Win If…

Washington ended the regular season with a 12-5 record, putting them 6th in the NFC and 2nd in the NFC East. Before their week 1 loss to the Bucs, the Commanders had won five straight, including a 23-19 win over the Cowboys in week 18. They were 7-point favorites in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. They did, however, cover in weeks 17 and 16, beating the Falcons and Eagles, respectively.

Washington is 10-6-1 against the spread this season, with a +5.5 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 51.5 points. The average line in their games was 45.9 points.

Our offensive power rankings have the Commanders 5th in the NFL, and they are also 5th in scoring, averaging 28.5 points per game. They have been strong in the 1st quarter, ranking 2nd in the league in points scored. On 3rd down, they have a conversion rate of 45.6%, which ranks 6th in the NFL. Despite being 2nd in red zone attempts, they are 28th in conversion percentage.

Jayden Daniels had a big game in week 3, going 21/23 for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 141. Terry McLaurin led the team with 4 catches for 100 yards. Daniels also rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

In their 23-19 win over the Cowboys, Washington’s defense gave up 228 passing yards on 20 completions. The Commanders’ defense played well on third downs, allowing the Cowboys to convert just 41.2% of their third down attempts. They also kept Dallas out of the endzone through the air, not allowing any passing touchdowns.

On the ground, Dallas ran for 150 yards on 39 attempts, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. Washington’s defense recorded two sacks and had a positive tackles for loss differential, but they did lose the quarterback hit differential by -6.

• Washington will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 2-1 on the over/under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Commanders have gone 7-3 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

The Buccaneers ended the regular season with two straight wins, including a 27-19 victory over the Saints in week 18. Tampa Bay was favored by 15 points but couldn’t cover the spread, although the 46 combined points were enough to hit the over (44.5). In week 17, the Bucs easily covered the 10-point spread with a 34-point win over the Panthers, with the teams combining for 62 points.

Tampa Bay finished the season 10-7, putting them first in the NFC South. They rank 3rd in the NFC and were 7th in our power rankings heading into week 1. The Bucs have an average scoring margin of +6.9 points per game and are 10-7 against the spread. Their O/U record is 12-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.

After a strong start to the season, Baker Mayfield has seen his passer rating drop in each of his last three games, from 146 in week 1 to 90 in week 2, and 83 in week 3. In the week 3 loss to the Broncos, he threw for 163 yards (25/33), with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, while being sacked 7 times. Chris Godwin led the team with 6 catches for 53 yards, and Bucky Irving had 70 rushing yards on 9 carries.

Despite some recent struggles, the Bucs rank 7th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game (29.5) and lead the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage (50.9%). Tampa Bay is also 3rd in passing yards per game (250.4) and 4th in rushing, averaging 149.2 yards per game.

The Buccaneers’ defense came up with two sacks and held the Saints to just 23.1% on third down in their most recent game, a 27-19 win over the Saints. They also limited the Saints to 64 rushing yards on 19 attempts. In the passing game, the Buccaneers allowed 228 yards through the air, with the Saints completing 61.9% of their passes. Tampa Bay’s defense also allowed just one touchdown in the game.

They also pressured the quarterback, winning the QB hit differential, and had a slight advantage in tackles for loss. Overall, the Buccaneers’ defense played a big role in the win by limiting the Saints to 292 total yards.

• The Buccaneers have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Buccaneers have gone 6-4 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread in this Washington vs. Tampa Bay matchup is to take the Commanders to cover as road underdogs. Washington is currently sitting at +3, and we have them winning 28-21, making them a great pick to cover the spread.

As for the over/under, with the line at 50.5 points, we are leaning towards the under, with a projected combined score of 49 points.

Jayden Daniels Leads Commanders in NFC Wild-Card Clash Against Buccaneers

Jayden Daniels’ sensational rookie campaign faces its toughest test yet as the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders visit the third-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC wild-card showdown Sunday night.

Both teams enter the playoffs riding momentum, with Washington on a five-game winning streak and Tampa Bay victorious in six of its last seven contests. With prolific offenses on both sides, the stage is set for an electrifying matchup at Raymond James Stadium.

Commanders Banking on Daniels’ Versatility

Washington’s remarkable 12-win regular season—just the fourth such campaign in franchise history—was fueled by the dynamic play of Jayden Daniels. The rookie quarterback has been a revelation, passing for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 891 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.

Daniels recognizes the stakes but is focused on keeping his emotions in check:

“It’s exciting, but you got to deal with those emotions,” Daniels said. “At the end of the day, you got to go out there and play ball. A lot of people are going to put a lot of emphasis on it because at this point, it’s really win or go home.”

Washington hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2005 season, coincidentally against Tampa Bay. The Commanders will aim to end their five-game postseason losing streak while avenging a 37-20 loss to the Buccaneers in Daniels’ NFL debut in Week 1.

In that contest, Daniels rushed for two touchdowns but failed to throw a scoring pass, while Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield lit up Washington’s defense for four touchdown passes.

Buccaneers Bolstered by Mayfield and Irving

Baker Mayfield’s career-best season has been instrumental in Tampa Bay’s return to the postseason. Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, leading the Buccaneers to a top-four scoring offense (29.5 points per game).

The addition of rookie running back Bucky Irving has provided balance. Irving, a fourth-round pick, rushed for 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns, complementing Tampa Bay’s aerial attack.

“Having the run game balance for them, I think that’s what sets their offense apart this year,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said.

Tampa Bay’s offense will be further bolstered by the likely return of standout safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who missed the final four games of the regular season with a knee injury.

Key Matchup: Washington Defense vs. Tampa Bay Offense

Washington’s defense, led by cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring, limited in practice), will be tasked with slowing Tampa Bay’s potent attack. The Commanders finished the regular season fifth in scoring offense (28.5 points per game) but must address defensive vulnerabilities exposed in Week 1.

The Commanders’ pass rush, anchored by Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen, will need to pressure Mayfield to prevent another aerial showcase.

Check Out the Latest NFL Wild Card Weekend Matchups, Odds, and Expert Analysis

What’s at Stake

For Washington, this game is a chance to cap a breakout season and end a prolonged playoff drought. For Tampa Bay, it’s an opportunity to validate a strong finish to the regular season and improve on last year’s divisional-round exit.

Both quarterbacks—Mayfield with his postseason experience and Daniels with his electrifying play—will be at the heart of their teams’ success.

With two explosive offenses and playoff implications, fans can expect a high-scoring battle with no shortage of drama under the lights in Tampa.