Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

Bills look to get swagger back against Texans in big early battle

The Texans and Bills are both looking to even their records as they face off in week five. The Texans are 2-2, and the Bills are 3-1, with Buffalo favored on the road. The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston and is set for 1:00 ET. The Bills’ money line odds are -118, and the Texans’ odds are -103. The over/under line is 47.5 points.

Buffalo vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Bills at Texans
• Where: NRG Stadium Houston
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds BUF -118 | HOU -103 O/U 47.5

The Bills Can Win If…

The Buffalo Bills, who were 2.5-point underdogs, suffered a 35-10 loss to the Ravens, dropping their season record to 3-1. Buffalo’s defeat was even more lopsided than expected, as they lost by 25 points, and they failed to cover the spread. The combined 45 points fell short of the over/under line of 47.5 points.The Ravens took control early, leading 14-3 after the 1st quarter and extending their lead to 21-3 by halftime. Buffalo’s only touchdown came in the 3rd quarter when Josh Allen connected with Khalil Shakir for a 52-yard score. However, the Ravens responded with a touchdown of their own to keep the game out of reach for the Bills.

The Bills’ offense struggled to move the ball in their 35-10 loss to the Ravens, managing just 12 first downs and 155 total yards. Josh Allen went 16/29 for 180 yards passing, but Buffalo failed to score a touchdown through the air. Allen was also sacked three times and finished with a passer rating of 73.

Buffalo couldn’t get anything going on the ground, with only 81 rushing yards on 23 attempts. James Cook was their top rusher with 39 yards, while Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving with 62 yards, 52 of which came on a single reception.

Buffalo’s defense gave up 271 rushing yards on just 34 attempts in their 35-10 loss to the Ravens. The Ravens had a big day on the ground, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. Despite giving up a lot of yards on the ground, the Bills held Baltimore to 156 passing yards on 14 completions. However, the Ravens did manage to complete 73.7% of their passes and score two passing touchdowns.

The Bills’ defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Ravens to convert 55.6% of their third down chances. Buffalo’s defense only managed one sack in the game.

• Buffalo has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Buffalo has a record of 8-2. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Texans Can Win If…

The Texans are now 3-1 after their 24-20 win over the Jaguars in their most recent game. Houston found themselves trailing early after the Jaguars scored a touchdown, but the Texans responded with a 6-yard touchdown run from Stefon Diggs to tie things up at 7. The Texans took a 14-10 lead in the 2nd quarter with a touchdown from C.J. Stroud to Cade Stover. After a Jaguars field goal, C.J. Stroud found Dalton Schultz for a touchdown to give Houston a 20-13 lead heading into halftime.The Jaguars took a 27-20 lead in the 3rd quarter with two touchdowns, but the Texans rallied in the 4th, with Dare Ogunbowale finding the endzone and a late touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud to Nico Collins to secure the win. Houston was favored by -5.5, and the combined 44 points was just under the O/U line of 44.5 points. Houston’s win improved their record to 3-1.

The Texans’ offense picked up 26 first downs and gained 334 yards through the air in their 24-20 win over the Jaguars. Houston’s running game was limited to 101 yards on 26 attempts. C.J. Stroud, who threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns, led the passing attack, completing 67% of his passes and finishing with a passer rating of 110.

Nico Collins was a key target for the Texans, finishing with 151 receiving yards and a touchdown. Cam Akers led the team in rushing with 53 yards on 13 carries.

Despite giving up 158 rushing yards on just 24 attempts, the Texans’ defense held the Jaguars to 155 passing yards in their most recent game. Houston’s defense allowed just 18 completions on 33 attempts (54.5%) and limited Jacksonville to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. Even though they struggled against the run, the Texans managed to come out on top, winning 24-20. They also allowed two passing touchdowns.

The Texans’ defense recorded one sack in the game and had a tough time in the trenches, losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials to Jacksonville.

• Spanning across their last three games, Houston have gone 3-0. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• The Texans have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Their record vs the spread sits at 4-6 in these matchups, while posting a 3-7 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread for this week five matchup between the Bills and Texans is to take the Bills to cover as road favorites. With the line currently sitting at -1 in favor of the Bills, we have them winning by a score of 23-20.

For an over/under pick, we like taking the under, with the line at 47.5 points. Our projections have these teams finishing with just 43 combined points, making the under a good value pick.

The Buffalo Bills will travel to face the Houston Texans this Sunday in what promises to be one of the most exciting early matchups in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. Both teams come in with a 3-1 record, and the stakes are high as each looks to solidify their standing in the AFC.

With the added intrigue of Stefon Diggs facing his former team, this game offers fans more than just a battle between two contenders. The Bills aim to rebound after a humbling loss, while the Texans are riding high on newfound momentum.

Stefon Diggs’ Return to Face Buffalo

One of the most compelling storylines leading up to this game is Stefon Diggs’ reunion with his former team, the Bills. Diggs spent four highly productive years in Buffalo, where he tallied over 100 receptions in each season and became a fan favorite. However, after voicing frustration over his reduced role in a run-heavy offense late last year, Diggs was traded to Houston in April in a blockbuster deal. The Bills took on a massive $31 million in dead salary cap space to facilitate the move.

Since joining the Texans, Diggs has proven to be a valuable asset for second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, catching 25 passes for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns. His presence has also opened up the field for fellow wideout Nico Collins, who currently leads the NFL in receiving yards with 489. According to Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans, Diggs’ versatility and football IQ have expanded the team’s offensive playbook, allowing him to play multiple positions and create mismatches.

“I’ve been really impressed with how Stefon has adapted to our system,” Ryans said. “He has some of the best hands in the league, and his ability to play in different spots makes him tough to defend.”

While Diggs has enjoyed a smooth transition to Houston, his former team has been struggling with injuries and inconsistent play, leading to questions about whether the Bills can maintain their position among the AFC’s elite.

Buffalo Bills Reeling After Week 4 Loss

The Bills are coming off a shocking 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, a defeat that exposed vulnerabilities on both sides of the ball. Buffalo’s high-powered offense, which had been averaging 30.5 points per game, was held to just 236 total yards, while their defense was gashed for 271 rushing yards. It was a stark contrast to the team that had been considered one of the AFC’s top contenders.

Making matters worse, the Bills’ defense will be without star linebacker Von Miller, who is serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Miller, who leads all active players in career sacks (126.5), is a critical part of Buffalo’s pass rush, and his absence will be felt against a Texans offense that has been hitting its stride.

Despite these setbacks, Bills head coach Sean McDermott remains confident in his team’s ability to bounce back. “We’ve faced adversity before, and the guys have always responded,” McDermott said. “We’ve had injuries, now we’ve got the suspension with Von, but I expect us to rise to the occasion.”

Buffalo could get a boost on defense if starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard is able to return from a pectoral injury. Bernard has missed the last two games but practiced on a limited basis this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday.

Texans Surging with C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins

While Buffalo is trying to rediscover its form, the Texans have been one of the surprise teams in the AFC. Second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud has been playing at a high level, thanks in large part to the addition of Diggs and the breakout performance of Nico Collins. With Diggs drawing extra coverage, Collins has emerged as a dangerous deep threat, leading the league in receiving yards.

Houston’s offense looked sharp in last week’s 24-20 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, a win that kept the Texans atop the AFC South standings. Stroud’s ability to spread the ball around and make smart decisions under pressure has been key to their success.

The Texans are also getting healthier on offense. Wide receiver Tank Dell, who missed last week’s game with bruised ribs, returned to full practice on Friday and is expected to play. Dell’s return should give Stroud another reliable target in the passing game.

Key Injuries Could Impact the Outcome

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries heading into Sunday’s matchup. For the Bills, wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle), defensive tackle Ed Oliver (hamstring), and safety Taylor Rapp (concussion protocol) are all ruled out. Shakir’s absence is particularly concerning for Buffalo’s offense, which is already thin at wide receiver after trading away Diggs. Defensive tackle Austin Johnson will also be out with an oblique injury.

On the Texans’ side, running back Joe Mixon has been ruled out due to an ankle injury, and defensive ends Derek Barnett (shoulder) and Jerry Hughes (hip) are also sidelined. Starting running back Dameon Pierce, who has played in only one game this season, is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The absence of Mixon and potentially Pierce means the Texans may rely even more on their passing game, which could put additional pressure on the Bills’ injury-riddled secondary.

Matchup History and What to Expect

The Bills and Texans have faced off 10 times in the regular season, with the series split evenly at 5-5. Buffalo dominated their last meeting in 2021, winning 40-0, but both teams have undergone significant changes since then.

Buffalo will be looking to regain its swagger after last week’s blowout loss, but the combination of key injuries and Von Miller’s suspension could make that difficult. The Texans, on the other hand, are riding a wave of momentum and will look to capitalize on Diggs’ emotional return and the stellar play of Stroud and Collins.

Prediction

This game is likely to be close, with both teams facing unique challenges. If Buffalo can limit Houston’s passing attack and get a strong performance from quarterback Josh Allen, they have the tools to win. However, if Stroud and Diggs continue their hot streak, the Texans could pull off the upset and further cement their status as contenders in the AFC South.

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