Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Picks and Predictions October 20th 2024

Vikings vs Lions October 20th 2024

The Vikings are favored at -133 on the money line as they host the Lions at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 20th at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. The Lions are +111 on the money line and +2.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 49.5 points for this week seven NFC North matchup. You can watch this one on FOX.

Detroit vs. Minnesota Key Information

After a dominant 47-9 win over the Cowboys in week 6, the Lions have now won three straight games, bringing their record to 4-1. This puts them 2nd in the NFC North and 5th in the conference standings. Our power rankings have Detroit at the top heading into week 7, and they have an 86.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 41.4% chance of winning the division.

Detroit is 4-1 against the spread this season, covering in three straight games. They were favored in all of their matchups, including their 38-point win over the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites. The over has hit in two consecutive Lions games, with 56 points scored in week 6, surpassing the 53.5-point line.

Heading into week 7, the Lions are 3rd in our offensive power rankings and lead the league in scoring with 30.2 points per game. They rank 4th in passing yards, averaging 258.2 yards per game on 30.6 attempts, which ranks 19th in the NFL. Jared Goff has been on fire, posting a passer rating of 153 in week 6, with 315 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys. Before that, he had a perfect 18/18 game for 292 yards in week 4 and a 199-yard performance in week 3.

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On the ground, Detroit is 4th in rushing yards, with 157.8 per game, on 33 attempts per contest. David Montgomery had 80 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 carries in week 6, while Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 78 yards and 2 scores in week 4. The Lions are 6th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 44.8% success rate, but they rank 24th in red zone conversion percentage.

The Lions’ defense was exceptional in their 47-9 win over the Cowboys, holding Dallas to just 53 yards on 17 rushing attempts. Detroit’s secondary limited the Cowboys to 198 passing yards and a completion percentage of 56.8%. They didn’t allow any passing touchdowns and intercepted three passes.

Overall, the Lions’ defense allowed just 251 total yards and held the Cowboys to a 23.1% conversion rate on third down. Detroit also had four sacks and controlled the line of scrimmage, winning the QB hit, and tackles for loss differentials.

Heading into week 7, the Vikings sit atop the NFC North with a 5-0 record, giving them an 86.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 37.1% chance of winning the division. In our power rankings, Minnesota is 8th. So far, they have a +12.6 scoring margin and are 5-0 against the spread, including 3-0 as underdogs.

In week 5, the Vikings covered the 2.5-point spread in their 23-17 win over the Jets. The O/U line was 42 points, with the teams combining for 40. Minnesota’s O/U record is 1-4 this season. Their games average 43 points, compared to an average line of 44.2.

Sam Darnold has been up and down over his last three games, throwing for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 4, but following that up with a 179-yard performance in week 5, where he failed to find the end zone and had a passer rating of 50. Justin Jefferson has been consistent, leading the team in receiving in each of those games, with 92 yards on 6 catches in week 5. Ty Chandler took over the backfield in week 5, rushing for 30 yards on 14 carries.

Heading into week 7, the Vikings are 5th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 27.8. They have been strong in the first quarter, leading the league in scoring. Minnesota ranks 12th in 3rd-down conversions and 15th in red zone efficiency.

The Vikings’ defense came up with three interceptions in their 23-17 win over the Jets, despite giving up two passing touchdowns. Minnesota held the Jets to just 36 yards rushing on 14 attempts, with a tough rushing yards per attempt of 2.6. They also limited the Jets to a 29.4% conversion rate on third down.

Minnesota allowed 218 yards passing and 254 total yards. Even though they gave up some yardage through the air, the Vikings defended the pass well, allowing just 4 yards per attempt. They also had three sacks and held the Jets to a 53.7% completion rate.

With the point spread sitting at 2.5 in favor of the Lions, we have them not only winning this week seven matchup vs. the Vikings, but also covering as road underdogs. Our final score prediction is 25-21 in favor of the Lions.

For an over/under pick, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 46 points and the O/U line at 49.5 points.

Surging Lions Up Next for Unbeaten Vikings

The NFC North’s top spot is up for grabs when the Minnesota Vikings host the Detroit Lions on Sunday in Minneapolis. Both teams enter the matchup in excellent form, with the undefeated Vikings (5-0) aiming to continue their best start since 2016, while the Lions (4-1) are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak. The stakes are high as the division rivals clash, with the winner emerging as the early frontrunner for the NFC North crown.

Vikings Focused on Division Control

For Minnesota, handling business within the division is a key factor for long-term success. The Vikings are coming off a bye week and are well-rested, giving them extra time to prepare for a Detroit squad that has been lighting up the scoreboard.

“If we want to go to the places that we want to go, it starts with our division,” said Vikings safety Josh Metellus. “If we can handle our division, which is playing so well, we’re setting ourselves up nicely for the rest (of the season).”

The Vikings’ defense will have its hands full, especially with the Lions’ potent offense. Both teams understand the importance of this game, not just for standings, but for establishing dominance within the division.

Lions Look to Overcome Key Injuries

Despite their recent success, Detroit is dealing with a significant loss. Star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson broke his leg during last week’s 47-9 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Hutchinson’s injury is a huge blow to the Lions’ defense, and while the team hopes for a possible postseason return, the timeline for his recovery (four to six months) leaves his status uncertain.

“It kind of brings it back to reality, like, ‘Hey man, that’s part of this game,'” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “But I think they also understand that we are a team, and everybody is here for a reason, and it takes every one of us. … They believe it’s next man up.”

Detroit is also monitoring several other injuries, including cornerback Carlton Davis (quad) and safety Brian Branch (knee), both of whom were limited in practice. Left tackle Dan Skinner (ribs) also missed practice, creating further concerns for the Lions as they prepare for Sunday.

Vikings Dealing With Injuries in the Backfield

Minnesota is likely to be without starting running back Aaron Jones, who is nursing a hip injury. Jones’ absence opens the door for Ty Chandler to take on a larger role in the backfield, while the Vikings have also bolstered their running game by reacquiring Cam Akers. Akers, familiar with the Vikings’ offensive system from his time with the team last year, could see immediate action.

The Vikings also have concerns with tight end T.J. Hockenson, who is working his way back from surgery after tearing the ACL and MCL in his right knee last season. Hockenson was limited in practice, but Minnesota is hopeful he will be ready for the game.

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Quarterback Sam Darnold will look to rebound after a subpar performance in the Vikings’ last outing. Darnold, who has 1,111 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions on the season, struggled against the New York Jets in London, throwing for just 179 yards. His main target, star wideout Justin Jefferson, has been productive, catching 26 passes for 450 yards and four touchdowns.

Lions’ Offense: Goff and Ground Game Powering Success

The Lions’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, led by quarterback Jared Goff, who has thrown for 1,330 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. Goff’s connection with wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams has been key to Detroit’s success. St. Brown leads the team with 31 receptions, while Williams has emerged as a deep threat with 365 yards and three touchdowns.

On the ground, Detroit boasts a dynamic duo in David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has powered his way to 351 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while Gibbs has added 348 yards and three scores, providing a balanced attack that will test the Vikings’ defense.

Recent History and Matchup Outlook

This will be the first of two regular-season meetings between the Vikings and Lions, with the second matchup slated to close out the regular season in Detroit. The Lions swept last year’s series, winning 30-24 in Minneapolis and 30-20 in Detroit.

Both teams are loaded with offensive firepower, making Sunday’s game a potential high-scoring affair. The Vikings will need their defense, especially their pass rush, to step up and pressure Goff, while the Lions’ defense faces the challenge of containing Jefferson and the Vikings’ passing attack. With both teams battling injuries, depth and next-man-up mentality will play a significant role in determining the outcome.

Key Injuries to Watch

Vikings:

• RB Aaron Jones (hip) – Likely out
• TE T.J. Hockenson (knee) – Limited
• LB Blake Cashman (toe) – Did not practice
• CB Akayleb Evans (hip) – Did not practice
• DT Harrison Phillips (shoulder) – Did not practice

Lions:

• DE Aidan Hutchinson (leg) – Out for the season
• CB Carlton Davis (quad) – Did not practice
• LT Dan Skinner (ribs) – Did not practice
• S Brian Branch (knee) – Limited

Conclusion

As two of the NFC’s hottest teams collide, the matchup between the Vikings and Lions could set the tone for the rest of the division race. Both teams have shown resilience in the face of injuries, but with key players sidelined, the battle of depth and execution will be crucial. With offensive playmakers on both sides, this game could come down to who can make the big plays when it matters most.