Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions December 29th 2024

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons December 29th 2024

The Falcons and Commanders will face off on Sunday, December 29th at 8:20 ET at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD. This week 17 NFC matchup is being televised on NBC. The Commanders are favored by -4, with money line odds of -204, while the Falcons’ money line odds are +171. The over/under line is set at 47 points.

Atlanta vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Falcons at Commanders
• Where: Northwest Stadium Landover
• Date: Sunday, December 29th
• Betting Odds WAS -204 | ATL +171 O/U 47

The Falcons Can Win If…

With two straight wins, the Falcons now sit at 8-7, putting them in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta has a 4-1 record in division games and is 7-3 against NFC opponents. Our projections give the Falcons a 48.3% chance of making the playoffs and the same odds of winning the division. They rank 21st in our NFL power rankings heading into week 17.

Atlanta has an average scoring margin of -1.5 points per game and is 6-8-1 against the spread. They are 5-4-1 ATS as favorites and 1-4 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-10, with the under hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 17, the Falcons are 15th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 19th in the NFL with 21.8 points per game and are 9th in yards per game, averaging 360.9. Atlanta is 14th in passing attempts and 6th in passing yards per game, with 236.5. On the ground, they rank 7th in rushing attempts and 12th in rushing yards per game, averaging 124.4.

In week 16, the Falcons scored 34 points in their win over the Giants, with 17 in the 2nd quarter and 14 in the 3rd. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 202 yards (18/27) with one interception, while Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. Darnell Mooney led the team with 5 catches for 82 yards.

Atlanta’s defense was dominant in their 34-7 win over the Giants, allowing just 45 rushing yards on 13 attempts. The Falcons’ defense gave up only 234 total yards, with the passing game accounting for 189 yards. They also forced two interceptions and limited the Giants to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.

Despite allowing one passing touchdown, the Falcons’ defense held the Giants to a completion percentage of just 56.4%. They also recorded three sacks and had a +4 advantage in quarterback hits.

• The Falcons have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. This includes going 1-1-1 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Falcons have gone 5-5 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 4-5-1 and an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Commanders Can Win If…

Washington enters week 17 riding a three-game winning streak, including a 36-33 victory over the Eagles in week 16. The Commanders were 4-point underdogs at home but managed to pull off the win, bringing their record to 10-5. They currently sit 7th in the NFC and have a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.

Heading into week 17, Washington ranks 11th in our NFL power rankings and has an average scoring margin of +5.6 points per game. Against the spread, they are 9-5-1, with a 6-3 record as favorites and a 3-2-1 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 10-5, with their games averaging 52 points compared to an average line of 46.1.

Jayden Daniels has been solid under center for Washington, throwing for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 16, despite 2 interceptions. He was sacked just once after taking 8 sacks in week 15. Terry McLaurin had led the team in receiving the previous two games, but Olamide Zaccheaus stepped up in week 16 with 5 catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Heading into week 17, the Commanders rank 4th in the NFL in points per game (28.8) and 5th in yards per game (373.5). They are 16th in passing yards, despite ranking 20th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 3rd in rushing yards per game, with 31.5 attempts per contest.

In their 36-33 win over the Eagles, Washington’s defense was tough to throw against, allowing just 127 yards through the air. They picked up four sacks and held Philadelphia to an 18.8% third-down conversion rate. However, the Eagles did find some success on the ground, rushing for 211 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt. Washington’s run defense will look to improve going forward.

The Eagles completed just 15 passes (53.6% completion rate) and managed only one touchdown through the air. Washington’s defense also came up with one interception and pressured the quarterback, finishing with a positive differential in QB hits and tackles for loss.

• The Commanders have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 3-0 in those same games.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Commanders have gone 6-4 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 6-4, in addition to an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Our projected score for this week 17 matchup between the Falcons and Commanders is 26-25 in favor of the Falcons. With Washington coming in as 4-point favorites at home, we are actually taking the Falcons to not only cover but win this game.

For this one, we are targeting the over with a projected 51 combined points. The current O/U line is 47 points, making the over our top pick for this game.

Falcons, Commanders Eye Playoff Spots in Rookie QB Showdown

The Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders square off Sunday night in Landover, Md., with both teams looking to secure critical playoff berths. This high-stakes primetime matchup marks the first NFL game featuring two first-round rookie quarterbacks under the bright lights, with Michael Penix Jr. leading the Falcons and Jayden Daniels helming the Commanders.

Playoff Scenarios at Stake

• Atlanta Falcons (8-7): A win paired with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the Carolina Panthers earlier Sunday clinches the NFC South for Atlanta.
• Washington Commanders (10-5): Washington can secure a wild-card berth with a win or potentially before kickoff if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers.

Both teams are riding momentum into the matchup, with Atlanta seeking its third straight win and Washington coming off a trio of victories, including an upset over the Eagles.

Rookie Quarterbacks in the Spotlight

This historic meeting between rookie quarterbacks adds intrigue to an already pivotal game. The Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick, and the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr., selected sixth, bring contrasting styles to the field.

• Jayden Daniels (Commanders): Known for his dual-threat ability, Daniels has amassed 737 rushing yards and six touchdowns while throwing for 3,303 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He is coming off a five-touchdown performance, including the game-winning score against Philadelphia.
• Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons): Making his second career start, Penix completed 66.7% of his passes for 202 yards in a 34-7 victory over the Giants last week. Atlanta’s offense is adapting to his style as the team transitions from veteran Kirk Cousins.

The quarterbacks share a bond formed during pre-draft workouts, adding a personal layer to the contest.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Daniels vs. Falcons’ Defense:
   Atlanta defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake is wary of Daniels’ mobility, which adds a dynamic layer to Washington’s already potent third-ranked rushing offense. Balancing pressure and coverage will be crucial to containing him.
2. Penix’s Passing Rhythm:
   Falcons receivers, including Drake London, have worked to build chemistry with Penix. London (978 receiving yards) is expected to play despite a knee issue, giving Penix a key weapon to stretch the field.
3. Terry McLaurin’s Impact:
   McLaurin leads Washington with 1,029 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. He was limited in practice with an ankle injury but remains a crucial component for the Commanders’ passing attack.
4. Trench Warfare:
   Washington could activate defensive tackle Jonathan Allen from injured reserve, boosting a defensive line tasked with stifling Atlanta’s ground game. Conversely, Atlanta’s offensive line must create opportunities for running backs and provide Penix with time to operate.

Injury Notes

• Falcons: Cornerbacks Kevin King (concussion) and Antonio Hamilton Sr. (quad) were absent Thursday, potentially thinning Atlanta’s secondary.
• Commanders: Several key contributors remain questionable, including cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and defensive end Clelin Ferrell (knee). Wide receiver Dyami Brown and safety Tyler Owens also missed practice.

Don’t miss out—explore NFL Week 17 Odds & Predictions for expert picks and analysis!

What’s at Stake

This game could serve as a playoff preview and a showcase of future franchise quarterbacks. The Falcons aim to re-establish their dominance in the NFC South, while Washington seeks to end its postseason drought in style.

Prediction

The matchup boils down to Daniels’ ability to exploit Atlanta’s defense with his legs and Washington’s effectiveness in slowing down Penix’s development. Expect a close, hard-fought game.

Final Score: Commanders 24, Falcons 20