Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions April 5th 2025

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning April 5th 2025

Making on a bet on this NHL game featuring the Lightning versus the Sabres? The puck drops at 7:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. The Lightning are the -1.5 goal favorites in this Atlantic division matchup against the Sabres. The over/under for the game is set at 6.5 goals.

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Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo Key Information

• Teams: Lightning at Sabres
• Where: KeyBank Center Buffalo
• Date: Saturday, April 5th
• Betting Odds TB -196 | BUF +164 O/U 6.5

The Lightning Can Win If…

The Lightning dropped to 44-26-5 after a 7-4 loss to the Jets. Tampa Bay had a 2-0 lead in the first period, but their defense faltered, allowing seven unanswered goals. The total for the game was set at 6.5 goals, but the combined 11 goals easily surpassed that mark.

Tampa Bay was the underdog on the puck line, and their defense couldn’t hold up. Four different Lightning players scored in the game, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with the Jets’ offense.

Brandon Hagel got things started for Tampa Bay with his 7th goal of the season, while Brayden Point followed with his 8th, coming on a power play. Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov netted his 10th, unassisted in the third period.

The Lightning fired 30 shots on goal and recorded 8 giveaways. They scored twice in the first period, added another in the second, and capped their scoring with Kucherov’s goal at 13:09 in the third period.

Defensively, the Lightning allowed the first two goals of the game, but they tied it up at 3-3 in the 2nd period and 4-4 in the 3rd. However, they gave up three more goals, including two empty-netters, resulting in a 7-4 loss. Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with an 84.4% save percentage.

• Tampa Bay has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. In addition, their puck line record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
• Tampa Bay has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the puck line sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 5-4-1 over-under mark.

The Sabres Can Win If…

Buffalo fell to 32-36-6 after a 2-1 road loss to the Red Wings. The Sabres had the lead early, with Alex Tuch scoring a short-handed goal at 11:39 in the first period, but they couldn’t hold on. Detroit responded with two power-play goals in the second period.

The total for the game was set at 6.5 goals, but the teams combined for just 3. Buffalo, as the underdog on the puck line, failed to cover. The Sabres were shut out after Tuch’s first-period goal.

Buffalo’s offense managed just one goal in their 2-1 loss to the Red Wings. Alex Tuch scored his 5th goal of the season, coming on a shorthanded opportunity at 8:21 in the first period. The Sabres registered 32 shots on goal but were unable to find the net again.

Buffalo had 13 giveaways and failed to convert on any power play chances. Tuch took 5 shots on goal, leading the team in that category.

Buffalo’s defense gave up two goals, both occurring in the second period on Red Wings power plays. The Sabres had a 1-0 lead before Detroit tied it at 12:11 in the 2nd, and the Red Wings added another at 5:22. Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen finished with 21 saves and a 91.3% save percentage, while the Sabres’ defense recorded 5 takeaways and 17 hits.

• Spanning across their last three games, Buffalo have gone 2-1. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 puck line in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 3-0.
• Across Buffalo’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Across these games, their puck line record was just 7-3, while posting an over-under record of 7-3.

The Lean

For a moneyline bet, I’m backing the Sabres to secure a victory over the Lightning at home. With the moneyline currently set at +164, I’m locking in my bet on the Sabres straight-up.

Our projections have the Sabres pulling out a win as the underdog. But if you’re not as bullish as we are on the Sabres, we’d recommend at least getting a bet down on them to cover the puck line.

If you’re looking at the over/under line set at 6.5 goals, our prediction is that this game will exceed that mark, and we strongly advise placing a bet on the over.

The Best Expert Hockey Handicappers

As the NHL regular season winds down, the upcoming Lightning vs Sabres matchup in Buffalo on Saturday has become far more compelling than the standings suggest. While Tampa Bay pushes for playoff positioning, Buffalo is quietly showcasing their best form of the season.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Eyes on the Division Crown

With a 44-26-5 record and 93 points, the Tampa Bay Lightning are firmly in the hunt for their fifth division title in franchise history. Currently sitting second in the Atlantic Division, they trail the Toronto Maple Leafs by just three points with seven games remaining.

But it’s not just the Leafs they’re watching. The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are breathing down their necks, just one point behind in the standings. The battle for home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs is fierce—and every game counts.

Home Advantage Matters

Tampa Bay has a favorable schedule advantage heading into the final stretch:

• 4 of their final 6 games will be played at home
• Impressive home record: 27-8-2

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs face a tougher path with four road games, including a demanding back-to-back set against Florida and Tampa Bay next week.

A Tough Loss, But No Panic

Despite a strong effort, the Lightning are coming off a 2-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Thursday. The defeat snapped a four-game win streak but didn’t rattle the team’s confidence.

Coach Jon Cooper remained upbeat:

“Sometimes you just don’t win those games… we’ve won a lot of them, and tonight we didn’t.”

Tampa outshot Ottawa 32-19 and dominated the third period, but ran into a red-hot Linus Ullmark, the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner.

Key Players to Watch

• Brandon Hagel: Nearly scored on a short-handed breakaway
• Anthony Cirelli: Hit the crossbar during a late push
• Yanni Gourde: Consistently creating offensive chances

Buffalo Sabres: Out of the Race, But Heating Up

While the Buffalo Sabres are officially out of playoff contention, they’re playing some of their best hockey of the season. With a 32-36-6 record and 70 points, the Sabres are on a four-game home win streak and have taken 5 of their last 6 games overall.

Goaltending Surge

Veteran goalie James Reimer has been exceptional, posting his fifth straight win in a 5-2 victory over Ottawa. His calm presence has been key in helping the Sabres close out tight games—something they struggled with earlier in the year.

“There’s no panic on the bench… we can close games out,” said forward Tage Thompson.

Offensive Leaders Stepping Up

• Tage Thompson: 39 goals (tied with Alex Ovechkin), 5 goals in his last 5 games
• Alex Tuch: Riding a four-game goal streak

These offensive surges show the Sabres are building confidence and chemistry for next season.

Head-to-Head: Lightning vs Sabres

This is the second of three regular-season meetings between the two clubs. In the previous matchup on March 6, Tampa Bay stormed back for a 6-5 win behind a hat trick from Jake Guentzel.

Remaining Meetings:

• Saturday, April 6 in Buffalo
• Saturday, April 13 in Tampa Bay

What’s at Stake?

For Tampa Bay:

• Critical points in the race for home-ice advantage
• Momentum heading into the playoffs

For Buffalo:

• Pride, player development, and a strong finish to the season
• A chance to test themselves against elite competition

Final Takeaway

Though at opposite ends of the playoff spectrum, both teams enter this game in form. The Lightning vs Sabres preview tells a tale of two teams with something to prove—Tampa Bay chasing postseason glory and Buffalo building a foundation for the future.