Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions November 13th 2024

Planning on watching today’s Maple Leafs and Capitals game? Catch the action at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, as the Capitals hosts this showdown at 7:30 ET on ESPN+. This Eastern conference matchup has an over/under of 6 goals, and the Capitals are favored by -1.5 goals vs. the Maple Leafs.

Toronto vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Maple Leafs at Capitals
• Where: Capital One Arena Washington
• Date: Wednesday, November 13th
• Betting Odds WAS -128 | TOR +108 O/U 6

The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

With a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild, the Maple Leafs are now 9-6-2 this season. Toronto’s defense gave up the first goal at 9:41 in the opening period, but they tied it up with a power-play goal from William Nylander at 19:08. The Wild scored the game-winner at 2:14 in overtime.

The total line was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for just 3. Toronto, as the underdog on the puck line, failed to cover. Their offense managed only 28 shots on goal, while the defense allowed 33.

Toronto’s offense was limited to just one goal in their 2-1 overtime loss to Minnesota. William Nylander netted his 9th goal of the season, scoring on a power play at 19:08 in the first period.

The Maple Leafs took 28 shots on goal but were held scoreless after the first period. They recorded 10 giveaways in the game.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs gave up the first goal at 9:41 in the first period and the game-winner at 2:14 in overtime. Anthony Stolarz had 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage, while the defense added 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

• The Maple Leafs have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an puck line mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 0-3 in those same games.
• The Maple Leafs have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 2-6-2 on the over-under.

The Capitals Can Win If…

Washington fell to 10-4-0 with a 4-2 loss to the Hurricanes. The Capitals were underdogs on the puck line and failed to cover. The total for the game was set at 6 goals, and the combined score matched that number.

After trailing 1-0, the Capitals scored twice in the first period to take the lead. However, the Hurricanes responded with three unanswered goals. Washington’s defense struggled, allowing 44 shots on goal.

Alex Ovechkin netted his 7th goal of the season on a power play, while Brandon Duhaime followed with his 2nd goal. The Capitals’ offense went scoreless after the first period, finishing with 21 shots on goal and 15 giveaways.

Ovechkin took 5 shots on goal, and Duhaime had 3. John Carlson picked up his 7th assist of the season, and Dylan Strome added his 13th. Nic Dowd also contributed with his 2nd assist.

Defensively, the Capitals gave up the first goal at 5:59 in the 1st period and allowed three more after taking a 2-1 lead, including an empty-netter with 9 seconds left in the 3rd. Charlie Lindgren made 41 saves with a 93.2% save percentage, but Washington’s defense recorded just 2 takeaways and 20 hits.

• Washington has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. Their record vs the puck line in these matchups is less impressive at 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Across Washington’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. The team’s record vs the puck line was just 6-4, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-4-1.

The Lean

For a moneyline bet, I’m backing the Capitals to secure a victory over the Maple Leafs at home. With the moneyline currently set at -128, I’m locking in my bet on the Capitals straight-up.

When it comes to my suggested pick for the puck line, I’d advise taking the Maple Leafs to cover. Even in the event of a Capitals victory, this matchup is likely to remain closely contested, and the Maple Leafs should cover the puck line.

If you’re looking at the over/under line set at 6 goals, our prediction is that this game will exceed that mark, and we strongly advise placing a bet on the over.

Toronto Maple Leafs Seek Redemption Against Washington Capitals Amid 5-on-5 Scoring Struggles

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set for a challenging game on Wednesday night as they head to Washington, looking to rebound from a tough 3-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators. After a three-game winning streak where they outscored opponents 11-2, Toronto stumbled in Ottawa, struggling to create scoring chances and manage just 18 shots on goal over the first two periods. Leafs coach Craig Berube admitted, “We got outskated; they wanted it more than us,” emphasizing the team’s need for a renewed intensity in their approach.

Power Play Remains a Bright Spot Amid Offensive Inconsistencies

Despite the shutout, Toronto’s power play remains a potent force, converting 7-of-13 chances during their winning streak—a 53.8 percent success rate that ranks among the league’s best. Yet, the team’s 5-on-5 scoring has been underwhelming, producing just one even-strength goal over their last five games. William Nylander, Toronto’s leading scorer with 11 goals, hasn’t netted a 5-on-5 goal since October 31. The Leafs’ reliance on their power play has left them vulnerable when unable to draw penalties, making a more balanced offensive strategy critical as they look to match Washington’s firepower.

Washington Capitals Riding High, Powered by Ovechkin’s Resurgence

The Capitals, on the other hand, come into Wednesday’s matchup with confidence following a dominant 8-1 victory over the St. Louis Blues. This lopsided win improved their record to 10-4-0, tying them with Toronto in points despite playing three fewer games. The Capitals’ offense exploded in the third period, scoring five goals, with a crucial power-play goal from Alex Ovechkin that sparked the rout.

Ovechkin’s hot start—already at 10 goals in 14 games—has been a key driver for the Capitals’ success. After a slower goal-scoring pace last season, the 39-year-old is inching closer to Wayne Gretzky’s all-time NHL goal record of 894. Capitals center Dylan Strome praised Ovechkin’s impact, saying, “Everyone wants to see him score…we’re winning hockey games. Both are going well, and hopefully we can keep going.”

Though Washington’s power play has struggled overall with a conversion rate of just 12.5 percent, their third-period performance against St. Louis shows the team’s potential to capitalize on scoring opportunities, especially when Ovechkin is on form.

Can Toronto Find Their 5-on-5 Scoring Rhythm?

To compete with Washington’s well-rounded attack, Toronto will need to rediscover their even-strength scoring touch. Here’s what to watch for in this critical matchup:

Toronto’s 5-on-5 Offense: With recent struggles at even strength, the Leafs must generate more offensive chances and break their 5-on-5 drought to keep pace with the Capitals’ firepower. Contributions from Nylander, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner will be essential.

Containing Ovechkin: Slowing down a red-hot Ovechkin is no easy task. Toronto’s defense will need to stay disciplined, particularly on the penalty kill, to limit Ovechkin’s chances from his favored shooting spots.

Capitals’ Power Play: While inconsistent this season, Washington’s power play has the potential to turn games around quickly. Toronto must play a clean, disciplined game to avoid giving the Capitals power-play opportunities.

Momentum and Mental Toughness: Both teams come into this game with something to prove. For Toronto, a bounce-back performance would restore confidence after a disappointing shutout loss. Meanwhile, Washington will look to build on their recent success and continue their early-season momentum at home.

Outlook

With both teams sitting at 20 points, this game is a significant opportunity for Toronto and Washington to set the tone for the coming weeks. For Toronto, finding balance at 5-on-5 and converting on offensive opportunities will be crucial to overcoming the Capitals’ recent surge and slowing down Ovechkin’s scoring momentum. Washington, on the other hand, will aim to exploit Toronto’s defensive lapses and capitalize on the energy of their home crowd.

As Toronto battles to regain form and Washington rides the wave of recent successes, fans can expect an intense showdown filled with high stakes and big plays. Will the Maple Leafs overcome their scoring struggles, or will Ovechkin continue his march toward history? All eyes will be on Washington as these two Eastern Conference rivals face off.