Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions March 20th 2025

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Stars to Put Home Win Streak to Test Against Lightning

Two impressive streaks will collide Thursday night as the Tampa Bay Lightning aim for a third straight win against the Dallas Stars, who are riding an eight-game home winning streak.

Lightning Pushing for Playoff Positioning

Tampa Bay (39-23-5, 83 points) is in a tight race for home-ice advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs while still holding an outside shot at claiming the Atlantic Division’s top spot. Since Jan. 30, the Lightning have posted a 13-3-2 record, with their recent surge putting them in strong position for the stretch run.

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“Regular season is about ups and downs, so it’s basically 82 games of preparation for the playoffs.” — Andrei Vasilevskiy

The Lightning are coming off a 2-0 shutout victory over the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday, led by goals from Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel. Vasilevskiy made 22 saves for his fifth shutout of the season, continuing a strong run that has seen Tampa Bay allow just two goals in their last two games after giving up 17 in the previous four.

“We put ourselves in a good spot here for the stretch run. We just want to build our game to as close to 60 minutes as we can here, and each game is going to be more intense and more significant for us.” — Ryan McDonagh

Stars Defending Home Dominance

Dallas (43-21-3, 89 points) sits second in the Central Division and holds the second-most points in the Western Conference. Following a 1-2-1 road trip, the Stars returned home Tuesday to extend their winning streak at American Airlines Center to eight games with a 4-3 overtime victory against the Anaheim Ducks.

Dallas is now tied for the longest home winning streak in franchise history, thanks in part to Thomas Harley’s contributions. The defenseman had a goal and two assists against Anaheim and has two goals with 10 assists over the last seven home games.

“We’re a veteran team in here. We know that if we play our game, we’re going to have a chance to win every game.” — Thomas Harley

The Stars have scored more than three goals in seven of their last eight home wins, showing their offensive depth. They will look to continue that trend against a Tampa Bay team that has rediscovered its defensive form.

Key Matchup Factors

When these teams last met on Nov. 23, Dallas secured a 4-2 road victory behind third-period goals from Matt Duchene and Roope Hintz. Kucherov and Guentzel were held off the scoresheet in that contest, while Anthony Cirelli scored twice for Tampa Bay.

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Vasilevskiy (2.24 GAA) will look to redeem himself after allowing six goals in his most recent start in Dallas, an 8-1 loss on Dec. 2, 2023. Backup Jonas Johansson (3.12 GAA) has never started against the Stars.

On the other side, Dallas’ Jake Oettinger (2.55 GAA) made 27 saves in the win over Tampa Bay earlier this season. Backup Casey DeSmith has been in stellar form, posting a 2.01 GAA and .931 save percentage during a six-start win streak.

Roope Hintz, who recorded two assists Tuesday, has five straight multi-point home games (two goals, 13 assists). If he continues his hot streak, Dallas’ offensive firepower could be a deciding factor.

With both teams in playoff contention, this matchup presents intriguing angles for those analyzing NHL betting predictions as Dallas looks to defend home ice and Tampa Bay continues its late-season push.

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