Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning March 3rd 2025

Tampa Bay vs. Florida Key Information

• Teams: Lightning at Panthers
• Where: Amerant Bank Arena Sunrise
• Date: Monday, March 3rd
• Betting Odds FLA -122 | TB +103 O/U 5.5

The Lightning Can Win If…

Tampa Bay fell to 35-20-4 after a 7-4 loss to the Jets. The Lightning, underdogs on the puck line, saw the total of 11 goals surpass the pre-game line of 6.5. Tampa Bay held a 2-0 lead in the first period, but Winnipeg responded with seven of the game’s next nine goals.

Four different Lightning players scored in the game. Brandon Hagel got things started at 13:11 in the first period, and Tampa Bay extended their lead with a goal from Brayden Point at 11:58 in the first.

Tampa Bay’s offense managed 4 goals on 30 shots in their 7-4 loss to the Jets. The Lightning got on the board with Brandon Hagel’s 7th goal of the season, followed by Brayden Point’s 8th, which came on a power play. Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov rounded out the scoring with his 10th.

The Lightning had 8 giveaways and recorded 4 assists in the game. Jake Guentzel picked up his 8th assist, while Nick Paul added his 7th. Tampa Bay scored twice in the first period, once in the second, and tied it up 4-4 in the third before the Jets pulled away.

Defensively, the Lightning struggled late, allowing the final three goals in a 7-4 loss to the Jets. After tying the game at 4-4 in the 3rd period, Tampa Bay’s defense gave up a goal at the 7:38 mark, followed by two empty-netters. Goalie Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with an 84.4% save percentage.

• Tampa Bay has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 3-0. Their over-under record in these games was 0-3.
• Across Tampa Bay’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 9-1. Across these games, their puck line record was just 8-2, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.

The Panthers Can Win If…

Florida improved to 37-21-3 with a 4-2 win over the Stars. The Panthers covered the puck line as -1.5 goal favorites, and the total of 6 goals fell short of the 6.5 goal line.

All four of Florida’s goals came from different players, with A.J. Greer breaking a 2-2 tie in the third period. Sam Reinhart added an empty-netter to seal the win.

Florida’s offense put 25 shots on goal and scored four times in their 4-2 win over Dallas. A.J. Greer netted his first goal of the season, while Sam Reinhart added his 10th with an empty-netter. Evan Rodrigues opened the scoring for the Panthers with his third goal, and Matthew Tkachuk followed with his third, which came on a power play.

The Panthers had 16 giveaways but managed to score two of their four goals in the third period. Tomás Nosek earned his first assist of the season on Greer’s goal, and Eetu Luostarinen picked up his fourth assist on Reinhart’s empty-netter.

Spencer Knight made 23 saves with a 92% save percentage, helping the Panthers to a 4-2 win over Dallas. Defensively, Florida had 8 takeaways and 22 hits. After giving up two goals in the second period, the Panthers’ defense shut out the Stars in the third.

• The Panthers have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an puck line mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• Florida has put together a record of 8-2 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an puck line record of 6-4 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

If you’re looking for a moneyline pick, my choice is the Lightning to take down the Panthers on the road. With the moneyline currently at +103, I’m placing my bet on the Lightning straight-up.

Our projections have the Lightning pulling out a win as the underdog. But if you’re not as bullish as we are on the Lightning, we’d recommend at least getting a bet down on them to cover the puck line.

With an over/under line sitting at 5.5 goals, we like this game to surpass that mark and recommend getting a bet down on the over.

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Panthers and Lightning Set for Battle in High-Stakes Rivalry

The Tampa Bay Lightning bring the NHL’s longest active winning streak into Monday night’s showdown against the Florida Panthers in Sunrise, Florida.

Tampa Bay has won eight straight games, including three in a row on the road, with defense and goaltending leading the way. Meanwhile, Florida is also in strong form, riding a three-game winning streak despite dealing with injuries to key players.

The two Florida rivals split back-to-back games in December, each winning on the other’s ice. With both teams in the playoff race, expect another intense battle as they meet for the final time in the regular season.

Lightning’s Defense Leading the Charge

Tampa Bay’s defense has been dominant, allowing just three goals in their past four games.

A huge reason for that success has been goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who entered Sunday ranked second in the NHL with 29 wins.

“We’re defending well in our zone, letting Vasy see the puck,” Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh said. “He’s been playing huge for us.”

Star defenseman Victor Hedman echoed McDonagh’s thoughts on Tampa Bay’s defensive focus.

“Defense wins championships,” Hedman said. “That’s the way we have to play.”

Lightning’s Offense Continues to Roll

Even with a defense-first mindset, Tampa Bay’s offense remains lethal. The Lightning boast four players with 25+ goals this season:

• Brayden Point (31 goals)
• Brandon Hagel (30 goals, riding an eight-game point streak)
• Nikita Kucherov (27 goals, second in the NHL with 60 assists, 87 total points)
• Jake Guentzel (27 goals)

Kucherov remains the driving force of the Lightning’s attack, while Hagel has been red-hot, posting eight goals and six assists during his eight-game streak.

Panthers Winning Without Their Top Scorers

While Florida is also on a winning streak, they have had to rely on depth scoring in recent games.

Their top four point producers—Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe—have combined for just one goal and four assists in the past four games.

With Tkachuk out on injured reserve (groin injury), Florida has adjusted by grinding out hard-fought wins with defensive discipline.

“It’s not necessarily going to be the Barkovs (every time),” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said after Saturday’s 3-0 shutout win over Calgary.

“It’s getting pucks around the net. It’s getting the hard goals. Teams will check each other, and the guys who don’t usually put up a lot of points become critical (in the playoff push).”

Bobrovsky Holding Down Florida’s Defense

Like Tampa Bay, Florida’s recent success has been driven by elite goaltending.

Sergei Bobrovsky shut out the Flames on Saturday and has been dominant over the past few weeks, winning seven of his last nine starts.

With Florida recently trading backup Spencer Knight to the Chicago Blackhawks, Chris Driedger was recalled from AHL Charlotte to serve as Bobrovsky’s backup.

Panthers Add Defensive Star Seth Jones

The Panthers made a major trade over the weekend, acquiring five-time All-Star defenseman Seth Jones from Chicago in exchange for Spencer Knight and a conditional 2026 first-round draft pick.

Jones, who is in the third year of an eight-year, $76 million contract, will make his Florida debut Monday night and joins an already strong defensive group alongside Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling.

“Seth is an elite veteran and a proven leader,” Panthers general manager Bill Zito said. “He’s been one of the most consistent players in the league over the past decade.”

Need expert betting picks based on team performance? Head over to the NHL Pick Page for the best daily predictions!

Key Matchups to Watch

Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Sergei Bobrovsky
Two of the NHL’s top goaltenders will go head-to-head, with both playing at an elite level.

Nikita Kucherov vs. Florida’s Defense
Kucherov remains one of the most dangerous playmakers in hockey. Florida will need to contain him to slow down Tampa Bay’s attack.

Seth Jones’ Debut vs. Tampa Bay’s Attack
Jones is expected to make his Florida debut, and his ability to handle Tampa Bay’s aggressive offense will be a major storyline.

What’s at Stake?

For Tampa Bay, extending their winning streak to nine games would keep them as one of the hottest teams in the league and solidify their playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference.

For Florida, a win would prove they can handle an elite opponent even without Matthew Tkachuk, and it would help keep pace in the battle for home-ice advantage in the playoffs.

With both teams playing their best hockey of the season, this Florida rivalry game could be one of the most intense and physical matchups of the year. Will the Lightning stay hot, or can the Panthers cool them off on home ice? The answer comes Monday night in Sunrise.