Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche Picks and Predictions November 25th 2024

Lightning vs Avalanche NHL Mon, Nov 25, 19:00 pm.
Lightning
ML: -110
0
0
Avalanche
ML: -110

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Don’t miss out on the NHL showdown between the Avalanche and Lightning. The game is starting at 7:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Lightning at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. Get ready to place your bets! The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 goals in this non-conference showdown. The game’s over/under is currently at 6.5 goals.

Colorado vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

  • Teams: Avalanche at Lightning
  • Where: Amalie Arena Tampa
  • Date: Monday, November 25th
  • Betting Odds COL -110 | TB -108 O/U 6.5

The Avalanche Can Win If…

With a 5-2 loss to the Predators, the Avalanche dropped to 12-9-0 this season. Colorado was the underdog on the puck line, and the total of 7 goals surpassed the pre-game line of 6.5.

The Avalanche took an early lead with a goal at 17:06 in the second period, but the Predators responded with five unanswered goals. Two of Nashville’s goals came with an empty net.

Cale Makar netted his fifth goal of the season on a power play, while Nathan MacKinnon added his sixth in the 5-2 loss to Nashville. MacKinnon also picked up his 14th assist, and Makar recorded his 16th assist on MacKinnon’s third-period goal.

The Avalanche fired 30 shots on goal but were hampered by 23 giveaways. They were held scoreless in the first period before Makar got them on the board with 17:06 left in the second. MacKinnon’s goal came with 2:17 remaining in the game.

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Colorado’s defense gave up the tying goal at 11:29 in the 2nd period, followed by three more from Nashville, including two empty-netters. The Avalanche also allowed the first goal of the 3rd period, which came at 14:45. Goalie Justus Annunen made 21 saves with a save percentage of 87.5%.

  • Over their last three games, the Avalanche have gone 3-0 straight up. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 1-2 in these games.
  • Colorado has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 5-5 on the over-under.

The Lightning Can Win If…

After a 7-4 loss to the Jets, the Lightning now sit at 10-7-2 for the season. Tampa Bay, the underdog on the puck line, couldn’t cover, and the total of 11 goals easily surpassed the pre-game line of 6.5 goals.

Tampa Bay held a 2-0 lead in the first period, but the Jets responded with seven of the game’s next nine goals. Four different Lightning players found the net in the loss.

Tampa Bay took 30 shots on goal in their 7-4 loss to Winnipeg, scoring twice in the first period, once in the second, and again at 13:09 in the third to tie the game 4-4. Brandon Hagel netted his 7th goal of the season, while Brayden Point followed with his 8th on a power play.

Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov scored for the 10th time this season. The Lightning recorded 8 giveaways and finished with 4 assists.

Tampa Bay’s defense struggled late, allowing three goals in the 3rd period, including two empty-netters. Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with an 84.4% save percentage. The Lightning’s defense also recorded 6 takeaways and 16 hits.

  • The Lightning have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 0-3 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
  • Through their last ten regular season contests, Tampa Bay has a record of 4-6. This includes going 3-7 vs. the puck line along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

If you’re looking for a moneyline pick, my choice is the Lightning to take down the Avalanche at home. With the moneyline currently at -108, I’m placing my bet on the Lightning straight-up.

If you’re looking to get a bet down on this matchup, we foresee the Lightning winning the underdog. However, if you’re not as confident in the Lightning straight-up, we’d still recommend placing a bet on them to cover the puck line.

For those assessing the over/under line set at 6.5 goals, our expectation is that this game will stay below that mark, and we suggest making a bet on the under.

Inconsistent Lightning Set to Face Improving Avalanche

The Tampa Bay Lightning will face another recent Stanley Cup Final opponent Monday night when they host the Colorado Avalanche, starting Thanksgiving week with a marquee matchup.

After their triumph over the Dallas Stars for the 2020 championship, the Lightning fell short against Colorado in the 2022 Final, hampered by injuries, including the loss of Brayden Point for most of the postseason.

Now, Tampa Bay faces different challenges, including inconsistent play, highlighted in Saturday’s 4-2 home loss to Dallas.

“One team tried to make six passes and put the puck in the net and turned it over, and the other team made two passes and threw it in the net,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. “We blinked first and we lost.”

Despite Anthony Cirelli extending his goal streak to five games, Tampa Bay faltered late, allowing two third-period goals in under a minute to drop to 3-4-2 in November.

Cooper voiced frustration with his team’s over-complicated offensive approach. “It’s almost like the goals don’t count unless they make the highlight reel,” he said. “If the puck just crosses the goal line in between the pipes, it counts. It doesn’t have to be an all-world play.”

Avalanche on the Rise

The Avalanche, meanwhile, showcased their offensive firepower in Saturday’s 7-4 win over the defending champion Florida Panthers. Mikko Rantanen led the charge with a goal and three assists, while Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin both had breakout performances.

Nichushkin, returning from a suspension, tallied a goal and two assists, while Drouin, back from an opening-night injury, netted his first two goals of the season.

“I thought we played well after giving up that first goal,” Drouin said. “We tried to play a little how they do: Put the puck in deep, try to make them come 200 feet to our net.”

The Avalanche are riding a three-game winning streak and are 7-3-0 in November, climbing to fourth place in the Central Division.

Coach Jared Bednar praised his team’s defensive effort in turning chances into goals. “We shut down the rush attack and that is important to get above them because they are a dangerous rush team,” Bednar said. “Our defensive play led to good offense.”

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Key Storylines

  • Lightning’s Scoring Struggles: Tampa Bay must simplify its offensive approach to capitalize on scoring opportunities and snap a two-game losing streak.
  • Avalanche Firepower: With Rantanen leading the way and key contributors returning, Colorado’s offense looks increasingly potent.
  • Division Implications: The Avalanche are gaining ground in the Central, while the Lightning seek to stabilize their position in the Atlantic Division.

What to Watch

Tampa Bay’s ability to respond after consecutive losses will be tested against a surging Colorado team that has no shortage of offensive threats. For the Lightning, balancing creativity with efficiency might be the key to success, while the Avalanche look to continue converting defense into high-scoring opportunities.

WinningCappers, The most trusted name in sports handicapping
spread
moneyline
over/under
Lightning
-1.5
220
-110
O 6.5
-120
Avalanche
+1.5
-270
-110
U 6.5
100
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