New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions April 1st 2025

Islanders Desperate for a Turnaround Against Red-Hot Lightning

The New York Islanders (32-31-10, 74 points) have made a habit of late-season comebacks in recent years, but their current five-game skid (0-3-2) has left them teetering on the brink of elimination. With time running out, they’ll need a crucial win when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning (43-25-5, 91 points) on Tuesday night at UBS Arena.

While the Islanders are fighting for their playoff lives, the Lightning have already secured their spot in the postseason and are jockeying for position in the Atlantic Division. Tampa Bay enters the matchup fresh off a dominant homestand, during which they outscored opponents 19-4 in three straight wins, including Saturday’s 5-3 victory over the Islanders.

Can the Islanders finally stop their slide, or will the surging Lightning deal them another devastating blow?

Islanders Running Out of Time

New York has clawed its way into the postseason the past two seasons with late-season heroics. They went 11-6-1 after March 1 last year to grab a wild-card spot and finished the 2022 season on an 8-0-1 tear to claim third place in the Metropolitan Division.

But this time, the uphill battle might be too steep.

After dropping consecutive games to Carolina and Tampa Bay over the weekend, the Islanders find themselves three points behind the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers in the race for the final wild-card spot. The upcoming schedule isn’t doing them any favors either, with matchups against the playoff-bound Minnesota Wild and Washington Capitals looming later this week.

Head coach Patrick Roy remains optimistic despite the recent struggles.

“It shows a lot of that group — it’s not easy to come back,” Roy said after Sunday’s 6-4 loss to Carolina. “I think the guys are giving me everything they have, and I love (them) for that.”

That effort was evident over the weekend. On Saturday, the Islanders nearly erased a four-goal deficit against Tampa Bay before ultimately falling short. On Sunday, they briefly took a lead after overcoming a 2-0 hole before Carolina responded with three unanswered goals.

“We need points and it’s going to come down to the last game, so we can’t give up,” said forward Pierre Engvall, who posted his first career two-goal game in the loss to the Hurricanes.

Lightning Peaking at the Right Time

While the Islanders are fighting for survival, the Lightning are fine-tuning their game for another deep playoff run.

Tampa Bay’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, with 19 goals in their last three games—their highest-scoring stretch of the season. They’re currently tied with the Florida Panthers for second place in the Atlantic Division, trailing the Toronto Maple Leafs by just three points.

Brayden Point has been leading the charge, scoring twice in Saturday’s victory over New York. The Lightning built a 4-0 lead in that game before nearly letting it slip away, prompting head coach Jon Cooper to emphasize the need for more complete performances.

“We’ve had a lot of things go our way on this homestand, but we earned them,” Cooper said. “Maybe the best learning experiences come when you can sneak away with a win and still get to learn from it.”

Even with some defensive lapses, Tampa Bay’s ability to capitalize on scoring chances has made them one of the most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs.

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Key Matchup: Islanders’ Defense vs. Tampa Bay’s Firepower

The Islanders’ biggest challenge will be slowing down the Lightning’s red-hot offense. Tampa Bay has been relentless in generating high-quality chances, and New York’s defensive lapses have cost them dearly in recent games.

Goaltender Ilya Sorokin will need to be at his best to give the Islanders a chance, while New York’s defensive unit, led by Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock, must step up to limit Tampa Bay’s transition opportunities.

Offensively, the Islanders need more from key scorers like Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson, who have struggled to consistently find the net in recent weeks.

What the Islanders Must Do to Win

1. Tighten Up Defensively – The Islanders can’t afford another game where they allow four or five goals early and have to fight their way back. A solid defensive structure, especially in the neutral zone, is crucial to slowing Tampa Bay’s attack.
2. Score First – New York has been playing from behind far too often. Grabbing an early lead will be critical to keeping the crowd engaged and putting pressure on the Lightning.
3. Special Teams Execution – Tampa Bay’s power play has been lethal lately, so the Islanders must stay disciplined and avoid unnecessary penalties. Conversely, New York’s power play needs to capitalize on any opportunities they get.
4. Strong Goaltending – Sorokin has been excellent at times, but he needs to steal a game. If the Islanders are going to pull off an upset, they’ll need a stellar performance in net.

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Game Information

• Date: Tuesday, April 2, 2024
• Location: UBS Arena – Elmont, NY
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Broadcast: ESPN+, MSGSN, Bally Sports Sun

Prediction: Lightning 4, Islanders 2

The Islanders will put up a fight, but Tampa Bay’s firepower might be too much to handle. Expect New York to come out with desperation, but unless they can limit defensive breakdowns, the Lightning should find enough scoring opportunities to extend their winning streak.

For more NHL coverage and playoff race updates, visit NHL.com.