Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions January 25th 2025

Goal-Starved Senators Prepare to Host Atlantic Division-Leading Leafs in the Battle of Ontario

The Ottawa Senators will face off against the Atlantic Division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday in the second installment of the Battle of Ontario. With both teams navigating recent challenges, this matchup promises to showcase the intensity of a historic rivalry and the urgency of teams chasing momentum in the NHL season.

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Ottawa’s Struggles: Searching for Goals and Consistency

The Senators come into this game after two consecutive road losses, both shutouts. Offensive struggles have plagued Ottawa recently, with five of their six scoreless games this season occurring in January. Despite securing a 3-0 victory over Toronto earlier in the season on Nov. 12, Ottawa now finds itself in a scoring drought that threatens its playoff aspirations.

Thursday’s 2-0 loss to the Boston Bruins was a frustrating one for head coach Travis Green, especially considering the team attempted over 70 shots.

“Usually, you’re going to get a few goals out of that, but it’s obvious the puck’s not going in for us right now,” Green commented. “We just got to stick with it.”

Key Players Need to Step Up

The lack of offensive production extends to the Senators’ stars. Team captain Brady Tkachuk, who leads Ottawa with 18 goals this season, has been held pointless for nine consecutive games, a slump dating back to Jan. 9. Tim Stützle, the team’s points leader with 45, has only two points in his last six games, both of which came in a shootout win against Boston on Jan. 18.

Adding to their woes is the power play, which has been ineffective in recent games. The Senators went 0-for-4 on Thursday and are 1-for-19 over their last seven games. If Ottawa is to regain its scoring touch, improving special teams will be crucial.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Riding on Auston Matthews’ Hot Streak

Toronto, meanwhile, has been one of the NHL’s most formidable teams this season, but their three-game win streak was snapped in a 5-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday. Despite the defeat, star forward Auston Matthews has been a consistent bright spot for the Maple Leafs.

The three-time NHL leading goal scorer is on a five-game goal-scoring streak, with six goals in that span. Since returning from an upper-body injury that sidelined him for six games from Dec. 21 to Jan. 2, Matthews has scored nine of his 20 goals. Head coach Craig Berube praised Matthews’ performance, noting that he looks to be back to his early-season form.

“I just see the speed and the pace of the game he’s playing with,” Berube said. “He looks like he’s really healthy.”

Key Injuries Impacting the Leafs

While Matthews has returned to his best, Toronto continues to navigate injuries elsewhere. Goalie Anthony Stolarz, who boasts an impressive .927 save percentage in 17 games this season, is recovering faster than expected from a knee injury suffered on Dec. 12. Though Berube is cautious about his return, he doesn’t expect Stolarz to miss many more games.

Left winger Matthew Knies, who exited the Columbus game with an upper-body injury, is listed as day-to-day, adding uncertainty to Toronto’s lineup for Saturday.

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Ottawa’s Injury Woes

The Senators are also grappling with injuries that could impact their performance. Jake Sanderson, whose 23 assists rank third on the team, missed Thursday’s game due to an upper-body injury, and his availability remains unclear. Defenseman Nick Jensen exited early in the loss to Boston after suffering an injury, while forward Josh Norris, Ottawa’s second-leading goal scorer with 17, is expected to miss both Saturday’s game and Sunday’s against Utah.

What to Watch For

Ottawa’s Keys to Victory

1. Breaking the Scoring Drought: The Senators need contributions from their top players like Tkachuk and Stützle to end their slump.
2. Power Play Improvements: Finding success on the man advantage will be crucial for generating momentum.
3. Strong Goaltending: Ottawa’s defense and goaltender must neutralize Matthews and Toronto’s potent offense.

Toronto’s Keys to Victory

1. Leaning on Matthews: If Matthews continues his hot streak, Toronto will be tough to beat.
2. Defensive Depth: With injuries affecting key players, the Leafs’ defensive unit needs to remain solid.
3. Special Teams Advantage: Capitalizing on Ottawa’s power-play struggles could tilt the game in Toronto’s favor.

The Battle of Ontario: Rivalry and Stakes

This game isn’t just about points; it’s about pride. The Battle of Ontario is one of the NHL’s most storied rivalries, and with Ottawa desperate to stay in the playoff conversation, the stakes are even higher. For Toronto, maintaining their position atop the Atlantic Division will be a motivating factor.

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Injury Reports: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

Prediction: Leafs Hold the Edge

Despite Ottawa’s home advantage, Toronto’s recent form and Matthews’ resurgence give them the upper hand. The Senators will need a near-perfect performance to overcome their scoring woes and injuries. Expect Toronto to come out strong, but Ottawa’s desperation could make this a close contest.