Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators February 4th 2025

Don’t miss out on the NHL showdown between the Senators and Lightning. The game is starting at 7:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Lightning at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this matchup is currently set at 5.5 goals and the Lightning are the -1.5 favorite to win at home vs. the Senators.

Ottawa vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Senators at Lightning
• Where: Amalie Arena Tampa
• Date: Tuesday, February 4th
• Betting Odds TB -178 | OTT +148 O/U 5.5

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The Senators Can Win If…

Ottawa improved to 29-20-4 with a 3-0 win over the Kraken. The Senators covered the puck line as -1.5 goal favorites, with the total set at 6.5 goals. All three of Ottawa’s goals came from different players.

Adam Gaudette opened the scoring at 14:32 in the first period. Brady Tkachuk added another goal in the second, and Tim Stützle sealed the win with an empty-netter in the third.

Ottawa’s offense was led by Adam Gaudette, who netted his 7th goal of the season at 14:32 in the first period. Brady Tkachuk followed with his 7th goal, scoring at 8:49 in the second. Tim Stützle added an empty-netter, his 6th goal of the season, at 2:14 in the third period.

The Senators recorded 23 shots on goal and finished with 11 giveaways. They picked up 5 assists, including Tim Stützle’s 10th of the year on Tkachuk’s goal.

On the defensive side, the Senators will look to carry over their performance from their previous game, where they allowed 0 goals to Seattle. Anton Forsberg made 22 saves with a 100% save percentage, and the defense added 2 takeaways and 25 hits.

• Through their last three games, the Senators have a record of 3-0. In addition, their puck line record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 3-0 over-under mark.
• Ottawa has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the puck line sits at 5-5 in these matchups, while posting a 4-6 over-under mark.

The Lightning Can Win If…

Tampa Bay’s defense faltered in a 7-4 road loss to the Jets, moving the Lightning’s record to 27-20-4. The total was set at 6.5 goals, but the combined 11 goals easily surpassed that mark. Tampa Bay, as the underdog on the puck line, failed to cover.

The Lightning held a 2-0 lead early, but the Jets responded with seven of the next nine goals. Four different Lightning players scored in the game.

In their 7-4 loss to the Jets, the Lightning registered 30 shots on goal and scored four times. Brandon Hagel opened the scoring with his 7th goal of the season, while Brayden Point followed with his 8th, which came on a power play. Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov netted his 10th.

The Lightning had 8 giveaways and scored twice in the first period before adding another goal in the second. Their final goal came with 13:09 left in the third period, tying the game at 4-4.

Defensively, the Lightning will look to bounce back after giving up seven goals to the Jets, including four in the 3rd period. Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with a save percentage of 84.4%. Tampa Bay’s defense also recorded 6 takeaways and 16 hits.

• Tampa Bay has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Against the spread, Tampa Bay went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 0-3.
• The Lightning have gone 4-6 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their puck line record was just 2-8, while posting an over-under record of 4-5-1.

The Lean

For a moneyline bet, I’m backing the Senators to secure a victory over the Lightning on the road. With the moneyline currently set at +148, I’m locking in my bet on the Senators straight-up.

If you’re looking to get a bet down on this matchup, we foresee the Senators winning the underdog. However, if you’re not as confident in the Senators straight-up, we’d still recommend placing a bet on them to cover the puck line.

For those looking at the over/under line set at 5.5 goals, our expectation is that this game will surpass that mark, and we suggest making a bet on the over.

The Best Expert Hockey Handicappers

Lightning Face Tough Challenge Against Red-Hot Senators

The Tampa Bay Lightning will wrap up their five-game homestand with back-to-back matchups against the surging Ottawa Senators on Tuesday and Thursday. While these games will have a playoff-like atmosphere, the odds of these Atlantic Division rivals meeting in the postseason’s opening round remain slim.

However, with the Lightning struggling to hold onto a playoff spot and the Senators on a dominant winning streak, these contests carry major implications for both teams.

Tampa Bay’s Playoff Hopes in Jeopardy

The Lightning, despite their +34 goal differential, have slipped out of a playoff position due to a recent offensive slump and the resurgence of other teams like the Detroit Red Wings, who are riding a six-game winning streak.

Tampa Bay’s January struggles (7-8-1 record) have been a major setback. Head coach Jon Cooper cited a grueling schedule—14 games in 24 days, spanning three time zones, with 10 road games—as a key factor in their decline.

“You look at the first three months of the season, and scoring wasn’t that difficult,” Cooper explained. “We were probably scoring more than expected, and then we started scoring way below expected.”

Key Players to Watch

• Nikita Kucherov (52 assists, 76 points) continues to be Tampa Bay’s offensive leader.
• Brandon Hagel is second in team scoring with 54 points.
• Brayden Point, however, has struggled, tallying just three points in his past six games and failing to record a multi-point effort since Dec. 28.

With the offense faltering, the Lightning must regain their scoring touch to keep pace in the playoff race.

Ottawa Senators: Peaking at the Right Time

Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators are one of the hottest teams in the NHL, having won five straight games. They dominated the Minnesota Wild 6-0 in their last outing, outshooting them 52-16 in a commanding performance.

Ottawa has already defeated Tampa Bay once this season, securing a 5-4 victory on Oct. 19. Their high-energy play and recent scoring surge make them a tough opponent for the struggling Lightning.

Key Players Driving Ottawa’s Success

• Tim Stutzle reached a milestone 300 career points, adding an assist in Ottawa’s latest win.
• Jake Sanderson is on a five-game point streak (3 goals, 6 assists).
• David Perron finally found the back of the net, scoring his first goal in his 15th game with the team.

Senators Face Key Injury Setback

Despite their strong run, the Senators suffered a major blow with the loss of Josh Norris (19 goals), who did not travel with the team due to a mid-body injury.

In response, Ottawa recalled forward Cole Reinhardt from the Belleville Senators (AHL).

• Ridly Greig took over Norris’ spot in the lineup and scored a goal in the Senators’ 5-2 win over the Nashville Predators on Monday.
• Head coach Travis Green remains optimistic about the next-man-up mentality:

“Any time someone goes out, it’s another opportunity for someone else to come in.”

Goaltending Matchup Could Be a Deciding Factor

• Senators’ goaltender Anton Forsberg made 25 saves in Ottawa’s win against Nashville and has been solid during the winning streak.
• Linus Ullmark, who has been sidelined for 19 games since Dec. 22, returned as Forsberg’s backup and could start Tuesday’s game.

Meanwhile, the Lightning will need strong goaltending to counter Ottawa’s red-hot offense.

Final Thoughts: Can Tampa Bay Stop the Senators?

The Lightning have a tough task ahead as they try to snap out of their slump against a confident and surging Ottawa team. If Tampa Bay’s offense doesn’t improve, they could fall further behind in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Meanwhile, Ottawa will look to extend their winning streak despite missing one of their top scorers.

With momentum favoring the Senators, can the Lightning step up and defend home ice? The next two games will provide the answer.