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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs April 9th 2025
The Maple Leafs and Lightning are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lightning will host the game at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. The over/under for this matchup is currently set at 6 goals and the Lightning are the -1.5 favorite to win at home vs. the Maple Leafs.
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Key Information
- Teams: Maple Leafs at Lightning
- Where: Amalie Arena Tampa
- Date: Wednesday, April 9th
- Betting Odds TB -166 | TOR +140 O/U 6
The Maple Leafs Can Win If…
Following a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild, the Maple Leafs’ record now stands at 47-26-4. Toronto’s defense struggled early, allowing a goal at 9:41 in the first period. They responded with a goal of their own, with just 52 seconds left in the first, but the Wild secured the win with a goal at 2:14 in overtime.
The total for the game was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for just 3. As the underdog on the puck line, Toronto didn’t cover. William Nylander scored the Maple Leafs’ only goal, bringing them to a 1-1 tie before the Wild’s overtime winner.
Toronto’s offense struggled in their 2-1 overtime loss to Minnesota, managing just one goal. William Nylander netted his 9th of the season on a power play, with Auston Matthews picking up his 6th assist and Mitchell Marner adding his 12th.
The Maple Leafs fired 28 shots on goal but were hampered by 10 giveaways. After Nylander’s goal at 19:08 in the first period, they were unable to score again.
Toronto’s defense gave up the first goal at 9:41 in the first period and the game-winner 2:14 into overtime. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage. The defense also contributed 2 takeaways and 30 hits.
- Toronto will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 0-3 in these games.
- Toronto has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). Across these games, their puck line record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.
The Lightning Can Win If…
The Lightning fell to 45-26-6 with a 7-4 loss to the Jets. Tampa Bay led 2-0 in the first period, but Winnipeg responded with seven of the next nine goals. As underdogs on the puck line, the Lightning failed to cover, and the total of 11 goals easily surpassed the 6.5-goal line.
Four different Lightning players scored in the game. They held a 2-0 lead at one point, but the Jets tied it up by the 5:49 mark of the second period. Tampa Bay managed to tie the game again at 4-4 in the third period, but the Jets pulled away with three unanswered goals, including two empty-netters.
Brandon Hagel opened the scoring for the Lightning with his 7th goal of the season, while Brayden Point followed with his 8th, netting a power-play goal in the first period. Mitchell Chaffee added his 4th goal in the second period, and Nikita Kucherov scored his 10th in the third.
The Lightning took 30 shots on goal and recorded 8 giveaways. They scored twice in the first period, once in the second, and added their final goal at the 13:09 mark of the third period.
Tampa Bay had tied the game at 4-4 in the 3rd period, but their defense faltered late, allowing three goals to the Jets—two of which were empty-netters. The first came at the 7:38 mark, followed by the empty-net goals at 17:15 and 19:23. Goalie Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with a save percentage of 84.4%.
- Tampa Bay has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Across these games, their puck line record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
- Tampa Bay has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record against the puck line in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-4-1.
The Lean
When making a moneyline pick, my choice is the Maple Leafs to come out with a win against the Lightning while playing on the road. Considering the moneyline odds at +140, I’m placing my bet on the Maple Leafs to win outright.
Our projections have the Maple Leafs pulling out a win as the underdog. But if you’re not as bullish as we are on the Maple Leafs, we’d recommend at least getting a bet down on them to cover the puck line.
With an over/under line sitting at 6 goals, we like this game to surpass that mark and recommend getting a bet down on the over.
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Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Eye Statement Win Against Division Leader
The Tampa Bay Lightning have a chance to even the standings with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night in a game that could preview a future playoff series—and emotions are already high.
Tampa (45-26-6, 96 points) trails Toronto (47-26-4, 98 points) by just two points in the Atlantic Division, and the Bolts are looking to finally solve a team that has beaten them three straight times this season, each time scoring five goals.
“It’s home ice and that means a lot in a seven-game series,” said Lightning star Brayden Point.
“We’re just working on getting our game right for the playoffs, and that’s going to be a big test against Toronto.”
Lightning Bounce Back Big in MSG
Tampa Bay entered this week on a skid, but their 5-1 road win over the New York Rangers on Monday showed they’re locked in.
Brayden Point had two goals and an assist, reaching 40 goals for the third straight season—tying a franchise record shared with Steven Stamkos.
Jake Guentzel also chipped in three assists, while Nikita Kucherov posted a goal and two helpers. The power play, which had cooled off, came alive again, going 3-for-4 on the man advantage.
“It’s nice to get some power-play goals,” Point said.
Prior to that game, Tampa had just 4 goals on their last 24 power plays.
Both Point and Guentzel now have 16 power-play goals, tying them with Leon Draisaitl for the league lead.
Maple Leafs Reeling After Loss to Panthers
Toronto had its own tough test Tuesday night, dropping a 3-1 game to the Florida Panthers, despite Joseph Woll turning away 34 of 36 shots.
John Tavares provided the lone spark, ripping his 37th goal of the season past Sergei Bobrovsky.
The Leafs are now just 1-6-0 against the Panthers and Senators—two potential first-round playoff opponents.
Head coach Craig Berube was blunt after the game:
“They wanted it more than us… It comes down to competitiveness. They seemed more desperate.”
Florida, even without stars Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Aaron Ekblad, still dominated puck battles and set the tone physically.
“You’re going to have to win battles against this team,” Berube added.
“They are tight defensively. They don’t give you much.”
Head-to-Head This Season
Toronto leads the season series 3-0:
- Game 1: 5-2 Leafs win
- Game 2: 5-4 OT win for Toronto
- Game 3: 5-3 Leafs win
Can the Lightning finally flip the script at home in what feels like a preview of April hockey?
