Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Picks and Predictions March 17th 2025

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames March 17th 2025

Planning on watching today’s Flames and Maple Leafs game? Catch the action at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, as the Maple Leafs hosts this showdown at 7:30 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this non-conference contest is set at 6 goals, with the Maple Leafs being the favored by -1.5 goals against the Flames.

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Calgary vs. Toronto Key Information

Teams: Flames at Maple Leafs
Where: Scotiabank Arena Toronto
Date: Monday, March 17th
Betting Odds TOR -211 | CGY +176 O/U 6

The Flames Can Win If…

Calgary’s 4-2 loss to the Oilers dropped their record to 30-24-11. The Flames were underdogs on the puck line, and the total was set at 6.5 goals, with the combined score falling just short of that mark.

After falling behind 2-0 in the first period, the Flames tied it up with goals in the second and third periods. However, the Oilers responded with two more goals to seal the win.

Calgary’s offense managed 2 goals on 31 shots in their 4-2 loss to Edmonton. Anthony Mantha netted his 4th goal of the season on a power play in the second period, while Yegor Sharangovich added his first goal in the third.

Tyson Barrie picked up his first assist of the season on Mantha’s goal, with Mikael Backlund earning his 4th assist. Kevin Bahl also contributed with his 5th assist on Sharangovich’s goal. The Flames recorded 22 giveaways in the game.

Calgary’s defense gave up the first two goals of the game, both in the first period, and two more late in the 3rd after they had tied the game at 2-2. The first came at the 9:50 mark on an Edmonton power play, and the final was an empty netter with just three seconds remaining. Goalie Dan Vladar had 27 saves and a 90% save percentage, while the Flames’ defense added 4 takeaways and 13 hits.

Calgary has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Their record vs the puck line sits at 0-3 in these matchups, while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
Over their last ten regular season games, the Flames have gone 4-6 straight up. Their record vs the puck line sits at 4-6 in these matchups, while posting a 3-7 over-under mark.

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The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto’s latest game was a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild, bringing their record to 39-24-3. The Maple Leafs trailed early, with Minnesota scoring at 9:41 in the first period. Toronto tied it up with just 52 seconds left in the first, but the Wild netted the winner at 2:14 in overtime.

The total for the game was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for just 3. Toronto, as the underdog on the puck line, failed to cover. William Nylander scored for the Maple Leafs, finding the net at 19:08 in the first period.

Toronto’s offense struggled in their 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild, managing just one goal on 28 shots. William Nylander netted his 9th of the season on a power play, with Auston Matthews picking up his 6th assist and Mitchell Marner his 12th.

The Maple Leafs had 10 giveaways and were held scoreless after Nylander’s goal at 19:08 in the first period. Toronto recorded 2 assists in the game.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs gave up the first goal at 9:41 in the first period and the game-winner 2:14 into overtime. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage, while the defense recorded 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

Through their last three regular season contests, Toronto has a record of 1-2. This includes going 1-2 vs. the puck line along with an over-under mark of 1-1-1.
Through their last ten regular season contests, Toronto has a record of 5-5. Their record against the puck line in this stretch is 2-8 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-3-1.

The Lean

When it comes to a moneyline bet in this game, our analysis leans towards the Maple Leafs picking up the win. However, given the current odds of -211, I’d advise going with the puck line, as our predictions have the Maple Leafs coming out on top by more than one goal.

When it comes to a puck line pick, our choice is the Maple Leafs to secure the win and cover. Expect the Maple Leafs to dominate this one with a multi-goal win over the Flames.

When considering the over/under line, which is currently at 6 goals, we believe that this game will go over that threshold, and we recommend wagering on the over.

Maple Leafs Desperate to Protect a Lead as Flames Begin Road Trip

Toronto Struggles to Hold Leads

The Toronto Maple Leafs have developed a troubling habit of letting leads slip away, and they’ll need to fix it quickly when they host the Calgary Flames on Monday night.

Toronto twice held one-goal leads against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday but ultimately fell 4-2 at home. It marked the fourth straight game in which the Maple Leafs led but failed to secure a regulation win, with just a shootout victory and three losses to show for their efforts.

“I thought their three goals were all about losing battles inside the blue line,” Toronto coach Craig Berube said. “We didn’t win enough battles there, and that’s an area of the game we need urgency in. When we decide to have urgency and do things the right way, we’re a way better team. But when you’re behind, sometimes you just don’t come back.”

Despite their struggles, the Leafs remain in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. However, to make a deep run, they’ll need to sharpen their defensive play. If you’re looking for expert NHL picks, the Leafs’ defensive issues make them a fascinating team to analyze.

Flames Looking for Strong Start on Road Trip

While Toronto searches for answers, Calgary is fighting for a Western Conference wild-card spot and looking to begin their four-game road trip on a high note.

The Flames fell 4-2 to the Colorado Avalanche on Friday, with head coach Ryan Huska expressing frustration over the team’s lack of full engagement.

“That’s the frustrating thing for me, more than anything, because I felt like they were ready to go,” Huska said. “I just felt at times they respected them way too much early in the game.”

Calgary will once again be without Mikael Backlund (upper-body injury), who is listed week-to-week, and Connor Zary, who will serve the second game of a two-game suspension.

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A Crucial Stretch for Both Teams

The Flames know they can’t afford to stumble on this road trip, with forward Ryan Lomberg setting clear expectations.

“Four-of-four is the goal, of course,” Lomberg said. “We’ve got to go. It’s not the time where you can go .500 on a road trip, and certainly not less than that. I think three-of-four is probably right where we want to be. Four-of-four would be the bar with what we’re trying to achieve.”

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs will look to snap out of their defensive slump and lock in a much-needed win. Their last meeting with Calgary resulted in a 6-3 victory on Feb. 4, with William Nylander netting a hat trick.

With both teams fighting for postseason positioning, this matchup could have major playoff implications. If you’re looking for winning hockey predictions, check out the latest expert NHL picks to see where the edge might be.