Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montréal Canadiens Picks and Predictions April 12th 2025

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montréal Canadiens April 12th 2025

Looking to win big? The Canadiens and Maple Leafs face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Maple Leafs are hosting the game at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The over/under for this matchup is currently set at 6 goals and the Maple Leafs are the -1.5 favorite to win at home vs. the Canadiens.

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Montreal vs. Toronto Key Information

• Teams: Canadiens at Maple Leafs
• Where: Scotiabank Arena Toronto
• Date: Saturday, April 12th
• Betting Odds TOR -232 | MON +191 O/U 6

The Canadiens Can Win If…

Montreal’s 3-1 loss to the Penguins brought their record to 39-31-9. The Canadiens, as underdogs on the puck line, failed to cover. The total was set at 6.5 goals, but the combined 4 goals fell short of that mark.

The Canadiens didn’t score until the 3rd period, when they were already down 2-0. Christian Dvorak found the net at 14:28 in the 3rd, but the Penguins sealed the game with an empty-net goal at 19:15.

Montreal’s offense was held in check in their 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh, with Christian Dvorak scoring his first goal of the season at 14:28 in the third period. The Canadiens took 26 shots on goal, but none found the net until Dvorak’s effort.

Juraj Slafkovsky picked up his 7th assist, while Emil Heineman recorded his first of the season. The Canadiens gave the puck away 20 times and were unable to capitalize on any power play opportunities.

Montreal’s defense gave up the first two goals of the game, both coming from Sidney Crosby. The first was at 15:57 in the 1st period, and the second was a power-play goal at 18:40 in the 2nd. After cutting the deficit to 2-1 in the 3rd period, the Canadiens conceded an empty-net goal with 45 seconds left. Goalie Sam Montembeault made 21 saves with a 91.3% save percentage, while the defense recorded 4 takeaways and 28 hits.

• Over their last three games, the Canadiens have gone 2-1 straight up. Across these games, they have put together an puck line mark of 1-2 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• Montreal has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 4-6 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.

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The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto’s latest loss came in a 2-1 overtime defeat to the Wild, bringing their record to 48-26-4. The Maple Leafs trailed 1-0 until William Nylander’s goal at 19:08 in the first period, but the Wild scored again at 2:14 in overtime to seal the win.

The total for the game was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for only 3. Toronto, as the underdog on the puck line, failed to cover. The Maple Leafs’ lone goal came on a power play, with assists from Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner.

Toronto’s offense managed 28 shots on goal but only found the net once in their 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild. William Nylander scored his 9th goal of the season on a power play, with Auston Matthews picking up his 6th assist and Mitchell Marner adding his 12th.

The Maple Leafs were held scoreless after Nylander’s goal at 19:08 in the first period. Toronto had 10 giveaways in the game.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs allowed the opening goal at 10:19 in the first period and the game-winner at 2:14 in overtime. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage. Toronto’s defense also recorded 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

• Through their last three games, the Maple Leafs have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Toronto has a record of 7-3. This includes going 5-5 vs. the puck line along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

For a moneyline bet, I’m backing the Canadiens to secure a victory over the Maple Leafs on the road. With the moneyline currently set at +191, I’m locking in my bet on the Canadiens straight-up.

If you’re looking to get a bet down on this matchup, we foresee the Canadiens winning the underdog. However, if you’re not as confident in the Canadiens straight-up, we’d still recommend placing a bet on them to cover the puck line.

If you’re looking at the over/under line set at 6 goals, our prediction is that this game will exceed that mark, and we strongly advise placing a bet on the over.

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Canadiens Look to Bounce Back, Clinch Playoff Spot vs. Maple Leafs

After a frustrating missed opportunity on Friday, the Montreal Canadiens will get another shot at clinching a playoff spot Saturday night—this time in enemy territory against the division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs.

Montreal (39-31-9, 87 points) had a chance to punch their postseason ticket with a win over Ottawa but fell flat in a 5-2 loss that snapped their six-game win streak. They still hold a six-point lead over Columbus for the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot and can officially seal the deal with a win—or some help—on Saturday.

“Not the start we were looking for… We can’t always come back all the time,”

– Canadiens forward Cole Caufield on Montreal’s slow start vs. Ottawa.

Looking for betting value as the playoff push intensifies? Check out our expert NHL picks and predictions before puck drop in Toronto.

The Canadiens gave up two quick goals in the first five minutes Friday and never fully recovered. Head coach Martin St. Louis said the early lapse cost them dearly, but he’s ready to turn the page.

“Some nights, it’s just too big of a hole… We have to flush this one pretty quick,”

– Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis on the team’s mindset heading into Saturday.

Toronto (48-26-4, 100 points) is fighting for its own postseason positioning. The Leafs sit atop the Atlantic Division, two points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning and four ahead of the Florida Panthers. A win over Montreal would keep Florida out of reach and give Toronto the inside track to clinch the division.

The Maple Leafs will be shorthanded on defense with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe both out due to injury. Head coach Craig Berube joked about the situation, but also emphasized the importance of team support.

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“Maybe I’ll suit up and play back there… It’s important our forwards do a good job of helping our defense out,”

– Leafs coach Craig Berube on adjusting to playing with five defensemen.

David Kampf will also miss Saturday’s game, thinning the Leafs’ center depth, though they did manage to split their Florida road trip this week—losing 3-1 to the Panthers before rebounding with a 4-3 overtime win over Tampa Bay.

Montreal will be hoping to take advantage of the Leafs’ thin blue line and get back to their fast-starting ways, while Toronto will look to lock down first place with a statement win on home ice.