Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions March 1st 2025

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning March 1st 2025

The Lightning and Capitals are set to face off at 12:30 ET on ESPN+. The Capitals will host the game at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The odds for this Eastern conference game currently have the Capitals as the -1.5 goal favorite with the over/under line sitting at 6 goals.

Tampa Bay vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Lightning at Capitals
• Where: Capital One Arena Washington
• Date: Saturday, March 1st
• Betting Odds WAS -110 | TB -109 O/U 6

The Lightning Can Win If…

Tampa Bay’s record dropped to 34-20-4 after a 7-4 road loss to the Jets. The Lightning held a 2-0 lead early, but the defense faltered, allowing seven goals in total. The pre-game total was set at 6.5 goals, and the 11 combined goals easily surpassed that mark. Tampa Bay, as the underdog on the puck line, failed to cover.

Four different Lightning players found the net, but they couldn’t keep pace with the Jets. Tampa Bay’s defense allowed two empty-net goals late in the third period, sealing the loss.

Tampa Bay’s offense managed 30 shots on goal in their recent 7-4 loss to the Jets, with four different players finding the net. Brandon Hagel opened the scoring with his 7th goal of the season, while Brayden Point added his 8th, which came on a power play. Mitchell Chaffee netted his 4th goal, and Nikita Kucherov scored for the 10th time this season.

The Lightning struck twice in the first period, added another in the second, and tied the game 4-4 in the third period before Winnipeg pulled away. Tampa Bay recorded 8 giveaways in the game.

Tampa Bay’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 7 goals on 32 shots from the Jets. Goalie Jonas Johansson made 27 saves but finished with a save percentage of 84.4%. After tying the game at 4-4 in the 3rd period, the Lightning allowed three straight goals, including two empty-netters.

• Spanning across their last three games, Tampa Bay have gone 3-0. In addition, their puck line record over this stretch is 3-0 while posting a 0-3 over-under mark.
• The Lightning have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their puck line record was just 7-3, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.

The Capitals Can Win If…

Washington’s 4-2 loss to the Hurricanes moved their record to 38-13-8. The Capitals trailed early, but Alex Ovechkin tied it up with a goal at 19:16 in the first period. They took the lead just 33 seconds later with a goal from Brandon Duhaime, but the Hurricanes responded with three unanswered goals.

Washington entered the game as underdogs on the puck line, and the total was set at 6 goals, which ended up being the exact combined score. The Capitals’ defense struggled, allowing 44 shots on goal, while their offense managed just 21 shots.

Alex Ovechkin netted his 7th goal of the season on a power play, while Brandon Duhaime added his 2nd goal in the Capitals’ 4-2 loss to the Hurricanes. Ovechkin took 5 shots on goal, and Duhaime followed with 3. Nic Dowd picked up his 2nd assist of the season.

Washington was held to 21 shots on goal and had 15 giveaways. After scoring twice in the first period, the Capitals were shut out for the rest of the game.

Defensively, the Capitals will look to bounce back after giving up four goals to the Hurricanes. They took a 2-1 lead into the second period, but Carolina scored twice in the second and added an empty-net goal late in the third. Charlie Lindgren made 41 saves with a 93.2% save percentage, while the defense recorded 20 hits and 2 takeaways.

• Across Washington’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. The team’s record vs the puck line was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Washington has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the puck line was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Lean

For a moneyline pick, I’m taking the Lightning to pick up on a win over the Capitals and the road. With the moneyline sitting at -109, I’ll be locking in a bet on the Lightning straight-up.

Our projections have the Lightning pulling out a win as the underdog. But if you’re not as bullish as we are on the Lightning, we’d recommend at least getting a bet down on them to cover the puck line.

For those looking at the over/under line set at 6 goals, our expectation is that this game will surpass that mark, and we suggest making a bet on the over.

Lightning Ride Winning Streak Into Matchup With Capitals

The Tampa Bay Lightning are making up ground in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division, and they’ll look to keep their momentum rolling when they visit the Washington Capitals on Saturday afternoon.

Tampa Bay is riding a season-high seven-game winning streak, the longest active run in the Eastern Conference. Over that stretch, the Lightning have outscored their opponents 31-12, proving they’re heating up at the right time.

Their latest win, a 3-0 shutout over the Calgary Flames on Thursday, showcased their defensive stability and strong goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy was at his best, making 27 saves for his fourth shutout of the season and the 38th of his career.

During the streak, Vasilevskiy has been nearly unbeatable, boasting a 1.71 goals-against average (GAA) and a .944 save percentage in his last seven starts.

“On the bench and on the ice, you feel comfortable playing in those situations,” Lightning captain Victor Hedman said. “You know you have four other guys around you who think the same way.”

Tampa Bay’s success in closing out games has been a huge factor in their run. When leading after two periods, the Lightning own an impressive 27-1-1 record, making them one of the toughest teams to mount a comeback against.

Familiar Foes: Lightning vs. Capitals

This will be the third and final meeting between the Lightning and Capitals this season.

• October 26: Tampa Bay won 3-0 behind a 32-save shutout from Vasilevskiy.
• November 27: Washington responded with a 5-4 victory in Tampa, as Tom Wilson netted the game-winner despite a hat trick from Brayden Point.

Saturday’s matchup will serve as the decisive game in the season series, with both teams fighting for crucial points in their respective playoff races.

Capitals Face Rare Losing Streak

While Tampa Bay is surging, Washington is dealing with something they’ve hardly experienced this season—back-to-back regulation losses.

The Capitals, who have suffered an NHL-low 13 regulation defeats in 59 games, lost consecutive games for just the third time this season, falling to Calgary and St. Louis this past week.

Thursday’s 5-2 home loss to the Blues was particularly frustrating. After battling back from a two-goal deficit, the Capitals allowed St. Louis to regain control just 63 seconds later, effectively ending their comeback bid.

“We’re obviously a team now in this league that has a target on its back,” said Connor McMichael, who scored his 21st goal of the season in the loss. “Teams know that we’re one of the best teams in the league. They want to come into our building and show they can play with us.”

Despite the losses, Alex Ovechkin remains on fire. The Capitals’ captain has scored eight goals in his last nine games, bringing him to 30 goals in 43 games this season. He now sits at 883 career goals, inching closer to Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record of 894.

Atlantic Division Race Tightens

Tampa Bay’s seven-game winning streak has helped them climb into one of the top three division spots, but they remain in a heated battle with Florida and Toronto for playoff positioning.

• Florida Panthers (75 points, first place) have won two straight and continue to lead the Atlantic.
• Toronto Maple Leafs (74 points, second place) entered Friday’s game against the Rangers riding a three-game winning streak.
• Tampa Bay Lightning (72 points, third place) are looking to extend their streak and keep pace.

With just over 20 games remaining in the season, every game matters in the race for home-ice advantage.

Explore comprehensive NHL Conference odds and predictions to see which teams are favored this season

What to Watch

• Vasilevskiy vs. Ovechkin – Can the Lightning goaltender slow down Washington’s red-hot captain?
• Can the Capitals avoid their first three-game regulation losing streak of the season?
• Brandon Hagel’s scoring surge – With 29 goals, he’s nearing the 30-goal mark for the second time in his career.
• How will Tampa Bay’s power play fare? – The Lightning have been dominant with the man advantage during their winning streak.

Tampa Bay enters as one of the league’s hottest teams, while Washington is looking to snap out of a mini-slump. With playoff implications on the line, expect a hard-fought battle in the nation’s capital.