2024 MLB Division Odds and Predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers are exhibit A. They are borderline locks to win the NL West this year (and every year?), so at -4000, they – and the entire division – are probably a waste of time.

However, teams free fall or go on hot runs all the time. So, which teams should you back to win their divisions and possibly the 2024 World Series? Let’s find out as I analyze the latest 2024 MLB division odds winners and offer my preferred picks.

2024 AL East Odds

The New York Yankees lead the way with -275 AL East odds. They looked like a great bet to win this division earlier in the year, and nothing has changed. They even recently got ace Gerrit Cole back in the saddle.

Of course, they also sent slugger Giancarlo Stanton to the IL.

Still, a healthy Cole should solidify a good New York defense; one that also features Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nesto Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. If the pitching is there, the Yanks should have a very good chance to close this division out.

Toronto has been a major disappointment and should continue to contend for the bottom of this division. The Rays may do the same, while Boston probably doesn’t have the consistency (nor the defense) to really give the Yanks a run up top.

Best AL East Value Bet

While the Yanks look like they’re in a good spot, they aren’t a lock – not even close. I just mentioned perhaps the biggest reason; their health is a big question mark. Cole could have lingering effects of his ailment, and now Stanton and even Clarke Schmidt are on the shelf.

What’s worse, though, is that the Baltimore Orioles are a handful. Arguably the best offense in baseball depending on the week, Baltimore is loaded with power. Gunnar Henderson has been absolute money for them this summer, and if things keep up at this pace, the O’s are not going to go quietly.

Baltimore even has solid pitching at their disposal, and at the time of this writing are just 1.5 games behind the Yanks for first place in the AL East. Considering how close this race is and where the AL East odds are at, Baltimore is tough to ignore.

Bet: Baltimore Orioles +175

AL Central Odds for 2024

The Guardians are atop the AL Central and that’s been the case all year. Minnesota and Kansas City aren’t far behind them, though, so it’s worth wondering if one of them can catch up.

Cleveland has been rather stingy defensively, of course (6th in ERA and 6th in OBA), and it’s not like they’re hurting on offense. I mean, have you looked at Steven Kwan’s batting average lately?

Kwan is just one piece to the puzzle, as the Guardians are looking more appealing by the day. Their AL Central odds aren’t super inviting, but their 7.5 game lead is.

Detroit has perked up, but they don’t have much in the way of pitching outside of Jack Flaherty and their bats are inconsistent. The Chicago White Sox, meanwhile, are flirting with the #1 pick in next year’s draft.

That leaves the Twins and Royals as the only legit contenders. Both appear to be viable, but only one could possibly dethrone Cleveland.

Best Value Bet

If I’m not betting on the Guardians to win the AL Central division, I think my pick would be the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. offers star power and elite base-running for a team that is top-10 in both runs and stolen bases.

Witt and co. know how to get home once they get on base. That is the catch, of course, as they only draw the 22nd most walks in the majors and their OBP (19th – .308) is far from elite.

Kansas City is good enough offensively, though, and they have a true ace in Cole Ragans. The southpaw plays a key role in the Royals’ 13th ranked ERA. Ultimately, I see KC more as a fun bet if you’re looking at who will win the 2024 MLB Pennant races.

When it comes to actually winning this division, I think Cleveland has a good enough lead to hang their hat on.

Bet: Cleveland Guardians -275

2024 AL West Odds

Houston is normally the easy call to win the AL West, but the Astros have gotten off to a horribly slow start this year. Their offense still owns the second best batting average in the majors and they’re fourth in home runs, but they’re going to be tough to trust.

It gets harder to fully buy Houston with Kyle Tucker injured, especially with growing talks that he could be moved before this year’s trade deadline.

Seattle is the favorite to win this division, but we’ve seen the Mariners do this before. They get off to a hot start, hold the top of the division hostage, and then wilt and watch Houston take it over.

For now, they do have a stacked pitching rotation and a capable offense, as well as a six-game lead. I’m just concerned they won’t be able to hold onto first place the entire season.

The defending champion Rangers are still here. It may not feel like it, but they do exist. Writing them off completely – especially in a world where people refuse to do the same for Houston – feels wrong.

L.A. and Oakland are two teams we can ignore here, though. It may finally be time for the Angels to trade Mike Trout, while Oakland may yet contend for the worst record in MLB this season.

Best Value Bet

The Mariners’ AL West odds aren’t very attractive. Even if you think they win, I think it might be wise to go chase after some better value. That probably comes in the form of the never-die Astros, or last year’s World Series champions,

My money is on Texas, simply because they’re still the most complete team in this division. They just need to get/stay healthy. They’re on their way, as Max Scherzer returned recently and looked good in the process.

Texas is also expected to get ace Jacob deGrom back at some point in August. They’ve weather the storm decently enough so far, giving me confidence in them for a strong stretch run.

And that’s just chatter around this team’s prospects on the mound. The Rangers are still a handful offensively when at full strength, so look for them to turn the corner in that regard, as well.

Bet: Texas Rangers +900

2024 NL East Odds

This division was supposed to belong to the Atlanta Braves. Reality can be a real trickster. Sadly, the Braves have failed to live up to expectations, largely thanks to major injuries to superstar talent.

Ace Spencer Strider was arguably the biggest blow, but then star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. went down recently, too.

Atlanta, weirdly enough, is still loaded enough to overcome those losses. They’re not favored, though, as the Phillies have pulled ahead by seven games. Given the state of these teams, that deficit feels insurmountable.

In reality, this division is a two-team race. The Nationals and Mets are not light years behind the Braves in terms of record, but I’d say they are in every other regard. The Marlins are even further back and aren’t worth your time in the slightest.

Best Value Bet

Philly’s NL East odds look quite strong at the moment. I don’t love the price for bettors to attack, but I’d be surprised if they lost the division. That said, the Braves are the clear value bet if you aren’t enamored with the Phillies.

Atlanta is down a stud pitcher, but they still have several guys to lean on. Chris Sale has looked reborn this year, as the 35-year old has a sparkling 2.91 ERA and 107 strikeouts. Max Fried has also been rock solid, Charlie Morton remains a serviceable option, and Reynaldo Lopez is enjoying the best season of his career.

Offensively, the Braves aren’t where they thought they’d be. Even so, they’re finally healthy again beyond the absence of Acuna, and they rank 12th in home runs and 14th in batting average.

There is enough there to bet on the Braves at this price with some confidence. For me, it’s still the Phillies or bust.

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -375

NL Central Odds for 2024

The Brewers might be the least trustworthy MLB division favorite in 2024. They keep getting it done, but they don’t have elite pitching and there’s always the fear the bottom will fall out on their offense.

Milwaukee is still the favorite here, however, and nobody else in the division seems that scary. St. Louis has the second best odds to win the NL Central, but that’s partially because they’re heating up and nobody else is threatening.

St. Louis still doesn’t have a very imposing offense, and their pitching is lacking beyond Sonny Gray. The Cubs, Reds, and Pirates are all right there with St. Louis in terms of record, so figuring out which one of these teams might have the goods to knock off Milwaukee feels like a nightmare.

Best Value Bet

It’s unlikely the Brewers actually give up the NL Central at this point, but betting on them at -220 won’t feel amazing. Not when literally every other team is still very much alive to take this thing.

If everyone is on equal footing, give me the Pirates. They have staggering +1800 odds considering the state of this division, and they also have unleashed Paul Skenes on the rest of the MLB world.

Skenes struggled in his most recent start, but he’s otherwise exceeded expectations in his first season. Pittsburgh has also gotten solid production out of Mitche Keller (3.11 ERA, 85 Ks, 8-4 record) and Jared Jones (3.66 ERA, 93 Ks), too.

Pittsburgh is young on the mound, but they certainly do not lack talent. The real question is if their offense can scrounge together enough runs to give them a real shot at storming the castle.

Bet: Brewers -220

2024 NL West Odds

If you’re going to go big this year, you might as well hope for insanity and bet on anyone but the Dodgers to win the NL West. L.A. looks like a lock here, just as their gaudy -4000 MLB odds would indicate.

Los Angeles is as stacked as ever, and here they are with an 8-game lead without even having a healthy Clayton Kershaw. However, if you’re looking for a weakness, consider their declining health with stud masher Mookie Betts on the IL.

San Diego is the next team in line, as they’re the only other NL West squad above .500 as I write this. Of course, the D’Backs were in the World Series a year ago and aren’t exactly dead just yet.

San Francisco is also still in play to a degree, with the last place Rockies looking like the only team in the NL West bettors can safely ignore.

Best Value Bet

In all fairness, this is almost certainly an MLB division to ignore when placing bets. The Dodgers are almost a guarantee to secure first place, after all. However, at their insane price, you’re simply not putting money on them.

If you do bet on the NL West division winner, I think the Diamondbacks make the most sense. Obviously they have some playoff pedigree after last year’s magical run, and there’s reason for optimism with star hitter Corbin Carroll finally starting to heat up a bit after struggling this year.

Arizona isn’t just a one-man show, either. The Diamondbacks rank 7th in runs scored, while they are in the top 10 in batting average and OBP, and they don’t strike out. On paper, they still have an offense that can explode and give the Dodgers a scare.

The D’Backs should be fine on the mound. Zac Gallen is on the IL at the moment, but he’ll be back and be a huge asset. Merrill Kelly has a shot at returning at some point in August, too.

If the Diamondbacks can get healthy and Carroll can return to form, they look like one of the more alluring MLB betting picks to make.

Bet: Diamondbacks +2500

Betting on MLB Division Odds in 2024

As you can imagine, there’s still a lot of ballgame left. So much so that even borderline locks like the Dodgers aren’t, well, locks.

You can’t and shouldn’t bet on teams like the Dodgers that just have obscene odds. Most sports betting handicappers will tell you that’s just bad practice. Yes, they’re probably winning the NL West, but you won’t make enough money back on those odds, and the teams behind them offer way more lucrative payouts.

Other MLB divisions are simply too close to call. The weird part? They’re not at all priced like it. Every single MLB division race is still within eight games or fewer. Crazier things have happened than a good team getting hot and overcoming that type of deficit, too.

Overall, I’d stick with truly good teams that offer value. The Orioles stand out as the team in the best spot with an inviting price. I’d also rather aim high with the Diamondbacks and Rangers rather than bet on their respective favorites, too.

I don’t mind eating some chalk when it comes to the Guardians, Phillies, and Brewers, though. Those teams could falter, but they all do appear to be the cream of the crop in their divisions.