2024 NASCAR Ally 400 Odds, Predictions and Race Winner

On Sunday, June 30, the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Nashville, Tennessee, for the Ally 400. This weekend’s event marks the 19^th race of the season. With just eight races left until the Cup Series Playoffs begin, things are heating up in the standings as drivers jockey for postseason position with the hopes of winning the 2024 Cup Series Championship.  

Last week, Christopher Bell took the checkered flag in the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire. He enters this Sunday’s race as one of the odds-on favorites along with Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain.

Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Ally 400 odds and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s Nashville Superspeedway race.

Ally 400 Race Profile

The Cup Series used to race at the Fairgrounds Speedway in the Nashville area up until 1984. However, the sport’s top series would take a near-40-year hiatus until returning to the region in 2021, for the Ally 400 at the Nashville Superspeedway. 

First opening in 2001, the Nashville Superspeedway is a concrete surfaced track with a lap distance of 1.33 miles. Sunday’s Ally 400 race breaks down as follows: 

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 300 laps
• Stage 1: 90 laps
• Stage 2: 95 laps
• Final Stage: 115 laps

The Ally 400 is set to begin at 3:30pm ET and will air live on NBC. 

Previous Ally 400 Winners

• 2023: Ross Chastain
• 2022: Chase Elliott
• 2021: Kyle Larson

NASCAR Ally 400 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Ally 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

NASCAR Ally 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Ally 400:

Kyle Larson +400

• Standings: 1^st 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 9

After getting wrecked in the Iowa Corn 350 two weeks ago, Kyle Larson bounced back in New Hampshire to finish 4^th. The result also bumped him back up to the top spot in the driver standings as he surpassed Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott. 

For Larson, that was the fourth Top 5 and fifth Top 10 finish in his last seven races. The #5 car is starting to heat up. Over that span, he’s also scored two victories: Kansas and Sonoma. Larson’s first half of the 2024 Cup Series season was forgettable. Now, he’s back to being unforgettable on the track. 

At Nashville, Larson has a 3.3 average finish, which is 2^nd best among the field. All three of his appearances have resulted in Top 5 finishes. Larson won the inaugural race at Nashville in 2021. Last year, he finished 5^th and didn’t lead a lap. 

With the way Larson is driving over the last two months, along with his career success at Nashville, it’s hard to imagine that the #5 car isn’t dominating the Ally 400 on Sunday. I expect Larson to be a Top 5 car most of the day and contend for the checkered flag. 

Denny Hamlin +550

• Standings: 3^rd 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

At the halfway mark of the season, Denny Hamlin would be happy with his third place standing if he was a regular driver. However, Hamlin isn’t just a regular driver. Instead, he’s a perennial championship contender and the #11 car seems to be backing into the summer with some bad luck and poor performances. 

Hamlin is tied with other drivers like Larson, Bell, and William Byron for the Cup Series lead with three wins so far. Unfortunately, it’s been eight races since Hamlin has won. Furthermore, he’s had an abysmal June so far. 

Over the last three races the #11 car has finished 24^th or worse in all of them. He also picked up his second DNF of the season. Making matters worse for Hamlin is that his 14.3 average finish on the year is just the 12^th best in the Cup Series. 

Fortunately, things could turn around for the driver and NASCAR team co-owner as he returns to Nashville. In three starts at this superspeedway, Hamlin has one Top 5, two Top 10s, and a 10.0 average finish which is 4^th best among active drivers. 

Although Nashville is a unique track, unlike any others, Dover is comparable in distance and Hamlin won that race this season. I expect the #11 car to end his run of bad results by finishing in the Top 5 at Nashville Superspeedway this weekend. But will he be able to contend with Larson and others for the checkered flag?

Christopher Bell +700

• Standings: 6^th 
• Win: 3
• Top 5:  6 
• Top 10: 11

Like Larson, Christopher Bell is also heating up as we head into the summer and finish up the regular season. As I predicted, Bell won at New Hampshire last weekend in a rain-filled race. The victory was his third of the year and second in the last five races on the season. 

Over his last seven races, Bell has three Top 5s, six Top 10s, and seven Top 13s. He’s also led laps in five of those seven events. Among active Cup Series drivers, Bell has the 9^th best average finish on the year at 14.1. Yet, that number is greatly improving with the incredible pace he’s been on. 

At Nashville, Bell has the third best average finish among active drivers at 8.0. However, he’s yet to win a race at this track. In his three starts, Bell has three Top 10s with a seventh place finish last year as his best result. 

On the season, Bell is tied with Tyler Reddick for the most Top 10s in the field with 11. I expect the #20 car to be in the Top 10 when it matters on Sunday, but it’s hard to picture him contending for the checkered flag. I think a Top 5 finish will be his ceiling for the Ally 400. 

Ross Chastain +700

• Standings: 9^th 
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2 
• Top 10: 7

It’s not often that we see Ross Chastain among the betting favorites for a race, but that’s the case this weekend in Nashville. In fact, when it comes to racing at the Nashville Superspeedway, Chastain has been the best driver among active Cup Series drivers. Yes, even better than Larson.

Like Larson, Chastain has one win, three Top 5s, and three Top 10s in the three Cup Series Ally 400 races. However, he has a better average finish of 2.7 than Larson’s 3.3. Chastain finished runner-up to Larson in 2021, 5^th in 2022, and won this race last year. 

On the season, Chastain has finally cracked the Top 10 in the driver standings after nearly two months at 10^th. He sits 9^th, but has the second-best average finish among the field at 12.3. The #1 car scored a 10^th place result last weekend in New Hampshire, which was his sixth straight Top 12 finish. 

If Chastain is going to win any race on the year, this weekend’s Ally 400 is his best chance. Look for the #1 car to be in the Top 5 and the Top 10 most of the day. I think he can challenge Larson for the checkered flag on Sunday. 

The Best NASCAR Ally 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the Ally 400 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at Nashville Superspeedway:

Chase Elliott +750

• Standings: 2^nd 
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7 
• Top 10: 9

It’s a little bit amusing how Chase Elliott has lower odds than Chastain and Bell, considering he has solid numbers at Nashville and on the year. Currently, Elliott sits second in the driver standings as he’s on the wrong side of a tiebreaker with his teammate Larson. 

Yet, on the year, Elliott leads the Cup Series with a 9.6 average finish. He also has the 4^th best average start at 11.3. So, the #9 car is a model of consistency. In fact, he’s finished 19^th or better in every race this season to date. Elliott did end up 19^th last weekend in New Hampshire, but he led 41 laps and started on the pole. A few untimely cautions and Mother Nature hindered his chances of winning the race. 

This weekend, Elliott will be a contender in Nashville. His stats at this track are a bit skewed. In the inaugural race, Elliott finished 13^th but a failed post-race inspection due to loose lug nuts led to the #9 car being disqualified and a 39^th place result. 

Elliott bounced back in 2022, to win the Ally 400 race. He then finished 4^th in 2023. Elliott has a 14.7 average finish at this track, but if you were to factor in his 13^th in 2021, instead of 39^th, then Elliott would have a 6.0 average finish. That would be third best among active drivers. So, I think Elliott is being overlooked on Sunday and you should definitely have him as a Top 10 and Top 5 driver. 

William Byron +900

• Standings: 7^th 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 6 
• Top 10: 10

I’ve never been a big supporter of William Byron, but the #24 car offers solid value this weekend at Nashville. In fact, he offers better value than Joey Logano and almost as much value as his Hendrick teammate Elliott. 

Elliott has better overall numbers at Nashville as we just detailed. That DQ really dropped his career numbers at this track. For Byron, his numbers aren’t as good, but they’re respectable with one Top 5, two Top 10s and a 14.7 average finish. 

Where Byron has outshined Elliott is on the 2024 season. Sure, Elliott has been more consistent to be 2^nd in the standings, but Byron is tied for the most wins (3) and has the second most Top 10s (10). He also has the 6^th best average finish among full-time Cup Series drivers at 13.2. 

Byron has three Top 6 finishes in his last six races including two Top 3s. He was runner-up at Iowa two weeks ago. Unfortunately, the weather played a part in his poor showing last weekend at New Hampshire. 

This Sunday, I expect the #24 car to storm back into contention just like with Iowa. Look for Byron to be a Top 10 car with the potential to challenge for the checkered flag if he gets a few lucky cautions late in the race. 

Joey Logano +1800

• Standings: 14^th 
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2 
• Top 10: 5

Speaking of overlooked, the #22 car is a forgotten man this weekend. That’s partly because he’s been racing poorly over the last few months. In his last seven races, Logano has four finishes outside the Top 20 including a 32^nd at New Hampshire last weekend. 

Although he’s 14^th in the standings, Logano is going to need to pick up some momentum if he wants to be a contender in the Cup Series Playoffs. In fact, he’s going to need some momentum just to make the Playoffs. If the postseason started today, Logano would be 16^th and the last car in. 

Fortunately for the two-time Cup Series champ, Nashville has been a friendly track. In three starts, Logano has two Top 10s and a 12.7 average finish. 

These numbers might not be as good as other drivers that I have highlighted above, but for a struggling driver who needs some solid results, a Top 10 finish in the Ally 400 would be a welcoming sight. 

The Top Ally 400 Longshot

Daniel Suarez (+6000) is my selection as the top longshot this weekend. As I mentioned above, Suarez would be one of the drivers to push Logano down in the standings as he has a victory on the year. Although he sits 18^th in the driver standings right now, that victory practically guarantees him a Playoff spot. 

Suarez only has one Top 10 in the last nine races of the season, but things could turn around for the #99 car this weekend at Nashville. In three Ally 400 races, Suarez has one Top 10 and an 11.3 average finish. His best result was 7^th in the 2021 race. 

When it comes to longshots, we want a driver who has had success at the upcoming track and at least one race win on the season. Suarez fits the bill for both. His 11.3 average finish is 5^th best among active Cup Series drivers. If the #99 car can stay out of trouble and keep his nose clean, it would not surprise me if he’s flirting with a Top 5 finish. And, if he gets some luck to go his way, Suarez could also flirt with a second victory on the season. 

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Ally 400

You could really make a case for Kyle Larson (-130) or Ross Chastain (+125) as the best Top 5 bet for the Ally 400 this weekend. They both have incredible average finishes and victories in Cup Series races at this track. 

The reason I go with Larson over Chastain, despite less betting value, is that the #5 car is one of the best drivers in the Cup Series. While Chastain is going to make the Playoffs this year, he’s not on Larson’s level. 

For the season, Larson is leading the Cup Series with eight Top 5s, which includes two in the last three races. Even when he’s not leading laps or contending for the checkered flag, Larson is still finishing as a Top 5 driver. At Nashville, Larson has three Top 5s, a 3.3 average finish, and a race win. 

At -130 odds, I love the value we’re getting on the former Cup Series champ. 

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Ally 400

As stated above, Joey Logano (+100) is performing well below his standards and our expectations this year. Yet, the #22 car still has time to turn things around and make a strong push up the driver standings. I think that push starts this weekend at Nashville. 

Logano has the 6^th best average finish at this track (12.7). He also has two Top 10s at Nashville. Furthermore, he has the best average start at 3.0. 

Even with his struggles on the year, Logano has two Top 10s in the last four races. At even money, I like Logano’s chances of finishing in the Top 10 for the Ally 400. 

Ally 400 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup: 

Kyle Busch (-130) vs. Bubba Wallace (+100)

We haven’t mentioned either driver so far, but this H2H matchup could be profitable if we wager on Kyle Busch. At -130 odds, there’s nice value with the veteran driver this weekend. 

For the season, Bubba Wallace sits 15^th and Busch sits 17^th in the driver standings. They both have similar results with Wallace edging out Busch in Top 5s at three to two. Wallace’s average finish of 18.0 is slightly better than the 18.9 average finish for Busch. However, the edge goes to Busch at Nashville. 

In three starts, Busch has one Top 10 and a 13.7 average finish. Wallace has a 15.7 average finish and zero Top 10s. Last year, Wallace was 15^th and Busch was 9^th in the Ally 400. Busch has finished better than Wallace in two of the three Cup Series races at this superspeedway. 

If we look at the last 10 races on the season, Busch has three Top 10s and Wallace has two. Busch has three DNFs in the last four races, which is why his numbers are lower on the year. Wallace also crashed last weekend as well. 

Although it’s going to be a close battle, I like Busch to outperform Wallace in Nashville. 

NASCAR Bet: Kyle Busch (-130)

Tyler Reddick (-150) vs. Joey Logano (+120)

This is my favorite head-to-head matchup of the weekend. Logano is being vastly overlooked largely due to a subpar season to date. However, he’s performed better at Nashville than Reddick has. 

In two Xfinity Series Nashville races, Reddick finished 15^th and 21^st for an 18.0 average finish. In three Cup Series races at this track, he has a 22.0 average finish and never finishing higher than 18^th.  As mentioned above, Logano has a 12.7 average finish at Nashville and two Top 10s. 

Logano is my sleeper this weekend. At the very least, he should crack the Top 10 and also win this head-to-head matchup against Reddick. The fact that Logano is the underdog in this matchup is very surprising considering their numbers at Nashville. I love the value with the #22 car for this NASCAR prop bet. 

NASCAR Bet: Joey Logano (+120)

NASCAR Ally 400 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag? 

When it comes to racing at Nashville, there appears to be levels between the drivers. You have your top Nashville drivers, a pack of cars that could crack Top 10, and then your poor performers. 

Sure, we could see some wrecks or other untimely cautions disrupt the flow of this race. But that’s how all races are. So, it’s best to stick with drivers who excel at this superspeedway when betting on the race winner. 

With that in mind, we’re looking at Larson, Hamlin, Bell, Chastain, and Elliott to contend for the checkered flag. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if these drivers finished as the Top 5 cars for the Ally 400. I wouldn’t count out Byron as a potential Top 5 as well. 

As for the winner, Bell has been on fire lately. He certainly could pick up his first career Nashville win this weekend. So could Hamlin or Byron. With that said, I think we have to roll with Kyle Larson this weekend. 

I swear that I’m not picking him because he’s my favorite driver or the odds-on favorite. I’m picking the #5 car because Larson has the second-best average finish at Nashville at 3.3, has won at this track (2021), is the leader in the driver standings this season, has a series-tying lead with three wins, and has the most Top 5s on the season with eight. Not to mention the fact that Larson is on fire over the last six weeks with two wins, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s. 

NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson +400

NASCAR Ally 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Ally 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+120)
• Toyota (+140)
• Ford (+375)

I’m surprised that the odds for this NASCAR prop bet are this tight between Toyota and Chevrolet. Ford is accurately listed as the longshot, but Toyota is being overvalued here and mostly due to the 2024 success of Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin. 

Yet, if we’re looking at Hendrick Motorsports for the year, we see that Larson, Elliott and Byron have more total wins and better overall stats across the board. 

Then, when we compare Chevy’s Nashville numbers to Toyota’s, it really isn’t even close. Chevy has been the best manufacturer at this track since the inaugural Ally 400 in 2021. Chevy has won all three Nashville Cup Series races with Larson, Elliott and Chastain. Chevrolet should be a minus-odds favorite. Since we’re getting +120 odds, you better jump on this quickly.

NASCAR Bet: Chevrolet (+120)

Winning Car Number

• Over 14.5 (+105)
• Under 14.5 (-135)

When looking at this prop bet, you better have an idea of what the car numbers are for each Ally 400 contender. With that said, I’m going to break down the top contenders by this Over/Under of 14.5. For the record, I really like the Under 14.5 at -135 odds. Still getting great value for the top contenders at Nashville this weekend. 

The top Nashville contenders for Under 14.5 are: Chastain (1), Larson (5), Elliott (9), and Hamlin (11). 

The top Nashville contenders for Over 14.5 are: Blaney (12), Truex (19), Bell (20), and Byron (24)

When looking at these two lists, one clearly jumps off the page and that’s the group of cars with numbers Under 14.5. 

Four of the Top 5 odds-on favorites to win the Ally 400 drive cars Under 14.5. Three of those cars have swept the only Cup Series races at Nashville: Chastain, Larson and Elliott. Three of those cars fill out the Top 3 spots in the driver standings: Larson, Elliott, Hamlin. Lastly, three of the Top 4 drivers for average finish at Nashville are: Chastain, Larson and Hamlin. 

Take the Under! This is my favorite wager for the entire Ally 400 race. 

NASCAR Bet: Under 14.5 (-135)

Race Winning Team

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+160)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+160)
• Team Penske (+650)
• Trackhouse Racing (+750)
• 23XI Racing (+800)
• RFK Racing (+1400)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+2500)

This prop bet comes down to two options: Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. Sure, just about every race comes down to these two teams, but it’s definitely true for Nashville this weekend. 

Other than Chastain, six of the Top 7 betting favorites for the Ally 400 race drive for these two teams. Furthermore, the Top 4 spots in the driver standings are from these two teams, 13 of the 18 wins this year have come from drivers on these two teams, and three of the Top 4 drivers with the best average finishes at Nashville are on these two racing teams. 

As for the winner, we have two strategies to choose from: 

The first strategy is taking Hendrick Motorsports as Elliott and Larson have won two of the three Cup Series races at this track. Furthermore, they sit first and second in the driver standings and have four total wins on the year. 

The second strategy is taking Joe Gibbs Racing as Bell, Truex, and Hamlin are all betting favorites this weekend, sit in the Top 6 of the driver standings, and have almost as many wins as Hendrick for the year. Plus, this is a great way to hedge your bet on Larson to win the race. 

As I’ve mentioned in previous weeks, I like to hedge my bet when it makes sense. Since I’m taking Hendrick’s Kyle Larson to win the race, I’m going with Joe Gibbs Racing for this prop bet. That allows me to have four of the Top 6 betting favorites for this weekend’s event. 

NASCAR Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (+160)

Ally 400 Group Winner

• Chase Elliott +240
• Martin Truex Jr. +250
• William Byron +280
• Ryan Blaney +280

From my analysis above, I have both Elliott and Byron contending for Top 5 finishes and potentially challenging for the checkered flag along with their teammate Kyle Larson. 

Both Elliott and Byron have 14.7 average finishes at Nashville, but Elliott has actually won at this track and his numbers are inflated due to a post-race disqualification in 2021. 

Truex finished 2^nd in this race last year, but has two finishes outside of the Top 20 and a 15.3 average finish. Blaney is the worst of this group with a 25.3 average finish. Although he was third in 2022, Blaney crashed out of the two other Ally 400 races. 

For this group prop bet, I believe it comes down to the two Hendrick drivers. Between Byron and Elliott, I like Chase to finish higher than William. Elliott would have a 6.0 average finish at Nashville if it weren’t for the DQ. Additionally, he leads the Cup Series with a 9.6 average finish compared to Byron at 13.2. 

Look for the #9 car to threaten Larson’s chances of winning this Sunday’s race and to finish higher than Truex, Byron and Blaney. 

NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott