2024 NASCAR Brickyard 400 Odds, Predictions and Race Winner

On Sunday, July 21, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the hallowed track of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for The Brickyard 400. This weekend’s event marks the 22^nd race of the 2024 Cup Series Season. Including this event, there are five races left before the Cup Series Playoffs begin and the 16 qualified drivers compete for the Cup Series Championship.

Last week, Ryan Blaney and his team executed solid late-race pit strategies to get out front and hold on to the victory in The Great American Getaway 400. Blaney was able to hold off Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman at Pocono Raceway, to take home his second checkered flag of the season. Ironically, Pocono is the most similar track to Indianapolis Motor Speedway as they’re both asphalt surfaces with a lap distance of 2.5 miles. 

Despite finishing second, Hamlin enters this weekend’s Brickyard 400 race as the clear-cut betting favorite to win. He’s followed by Kyle Larson, Blaney, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott. 

Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR The Great American Getaway 400 odds and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s Pocono Raceway event.

Brickyard 400 Race Profile

After decades of watching other Motorsport Series racing at the famous Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS), NASCAR decided to finally put its stamp on this track with an annual race called the Brickyard 400. The inaugural race started in 1994 and ran until 2020. 

From 2021 to 2023, NASCAR decided to do a combined road course race at IMS instead of the traditional Brickyard 400. Finally, the sport came to its senses and brought back a race that fans have enjoyed since the 90s and have affectionately considered one of the sport’s crown jewel races. 

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is an asphalt track with a lap length of 2.5 miles and four turns. Team owner Rick Hendrick will drive the pace car for this weekend’s event.

Sunday’s Brickyard 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 160 laps
• Stage 1: 50 laps
• Stage 2: 50 laps
• Final Stage: 60 laps

The Brickyard 400 is set to begin at 2:30pm ET and will air live on NBC.

Previous Brickyard 400 Winners

Jeff Gordon holds the record for most Cup Series wins at IMS with five. Of active drivers, only Kyle Busch (2) and Brad Keselowski (1) have a victory at this speedway. The following is a list of previous winners:

• 2020: Kevin Harvick
• 2019: Kevin Harvick
• 2018: Brad Keselowski
• 2017: Kasey Kahne
• 2016: Kyle Busch
• 2015: Kyle Busch
• 2014: Jeff Gordon

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Brickyard 400:

Denny Hamlin +360

• Standings: 4^th  
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 9

Denny Hamlin finally broke his streak of five races of finishing outside of the Top 10 including four of those with results of 24^th or worse. Hamlin scored a second place finish at Pocono last weekend and led 31 laps. If he had more time, Hamlin would’ve caught Blaney and won. Unfortunately, there weren’t enough laps left in the race for the #11 car to overtake the reigning Cup Series champ.

We all know that Hamlin is the King of Pocono with seven wins. He’s also had a decent amount of success at IMS with five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 13.4 average finish in 15 starts. Hamlin has finished in the Top 6 for five of his last seven starts at IMS. 

Oddsmakers love Hamlin this weekend due to his career success at 2.5 mile tracks. He will be the man to beat on Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. 

Kyle Larson +600

• Standings: 2^nd  
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 10

After three weeks of sitting at the top of the driver standings, Larson fell down to second place as his teammate Chase Elliott has taken over first place. The combination of crashing out in the Chicago Grant Park 165 two weeks ago, and a 13^th place result last weekend at Pocono, has Larson looking up at Elliott. 

Unlike many of the younger guys in the field, Larson does have six starts at IMS where he’s scored one Top 5, three Top 10s, and a 16.0 average finish. Unfortunately, he’s crashed out of two of his last three races at this track. 

At Pocono, Larson has an 11.6 average finish with numerous Top 5s and Top 10s to showcase his skills on a track like IMS. With that said, he has not won at either track for his career. 

Sure, Larson could pick up his first Cup Series victory at a 2.5 mile track this weekend, but there are better options to wager on than the #5 car. A Top 10 finish (-350) with a Top 5 ceiling (-110) is what you can expect from Larson this Sunday.

Ryan Blaney +750

• Standings: 7^th 
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 10

For nearly half of the season, I wrote off Blaney as he struggled to regain his Championship winning form from last year. Yet, the #12 car has proved me and the rest of his critics wrong with a strong run over the last six weeks. During that span, Blaney has two wins, three Top 5s, and five Top 10s. He’s also gone from 12^th to 7^th in the driver standings. 

Blaney picked up his second career Pocono victory last weekend and it shows that he’s certainly capable of producing a solid result this Sunday. With that said, Blaney will need some Pocono magic to rub off on IMS this weekend. In six starts at this track, he has just one Top 10 and a pitiful 20.2 average finish. Even worse, Blaney has 3 DNFs. 

For being one of the odds-on favorites this weekend, a 50% DNF rate at IMS is quite alarming. I’m comfortable with Blaney finishing in the Top 10 (-250), but that’s about it. 

Brad Keselowski +850

• Standings:  9^th 
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 10

One driver that I really like this weekend is Brad Keselowski. As mentioned above, he’s one of only two active drivers to have a victory at Indianapolis. Additionally, he has three Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 12.9 average finish in 11 starts at IMS. 

Over his last four Indianapolis starts, Keselowski has three Top 4s, a win in 2018 and a runner-up in 2017. He was running strong in 2019 as well, before a crash took him out. 

Last weekend, I had Keselowski as one of my top value bets:

“Keselowski has five Top 10 finishes over his last eight appearances at Pocono. I like for the #6 car to be a Top 10 driver most of the day and possibly crack the Top 5.”

Keselowski finished 7^th last Sunday in Pocono, which is right on par with my prediction for him. This weekend, I like more of the same from the #6 car. I think Keselowski will be a Top 10 car (-220), with a strong chance to finish in the Top 5 (+130) and challenge Hamlin for the checkered flag just like he did in 2018. 

The Best NASCAR Brickyard 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the Brickyard 400 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at Indianapolis Motor Superspeedway:

Joey Logano +1400

• Standings: 14^th  
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 7

Another driver I really like this weekend is Joey Logano. The #22 car has the second-best average finish at IMS (10.7), with four Top 5s and eight Top 10s in 12 career starts. He has eight straight finishes in the Top 13. Over that span, seven were Top 10 and four were Top 5. Additionally, he finished runner-up in 2019 and 2015. 

Sure, the cars are far different now than they were when the Cup Series last raced at IMS, but that doesn’t change the experience and knowledge that veteran drivers like Logano, Keselowski, Hamlin and Kyle Busch have at this track. 

Plus, it’s not like we’re hoping that Logano pulls off a good finish this weekend. He’s been building momentum for the Playoffs with a strong five-race stretch since early June. Logano has three Top 6 finishes over that stretch including a victory in Nasvhille at the Ally 400. That was his first victory of the season and locked the #22 car into the Playoffs.  

So, not only is Logano racing with momentum and without any pressure, he also has a solid history at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. That gives me confidence in the #22 car to race well on Sunday. I like for Logano to be a Top 10 car and flirt with a Top 5 finish just like he did at Pocono last weekend. With some luck, he could take the checkered flag. 

Bubba Wallace +3000

• Standings: 15^th 
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 7

It’s not often that I list Bubba Wallace as a driver to watch out for. However, he’s definitely someone to consider this weekend. In fact, +3000 odds are very attractive for placing a flier on. Top 5 (+450) and Top 10 (+130) finishes also have some juicy betting value for a driver desperate to pick up a solid result.

Currently, Wallace sits 17^th in the Playoff standings at 27 points below the cutoff line. This means that if the Playoffs started today, Wallace would be the first car out. 

The #23 car has put together a 10.0 average finish over the last three races as he pushes towards a Playoff spot. Last weekend, Wallace was 10^th at Pocono, which bodes well for his chances this weekend at Indianapolis.

Furthermore, Wallace has a 16.7 average finish at IMS in three starts. However, Bubba has a 6.0 average finish over his last two appearances at this track with a 9^th in 2020, and a 3^rd in 2019. 

Look for Wallace to be a Top 10 driver on Sunday and flirt with a Top 5 finish. I wouldn’t be surprised if he also won a Stage in the Brickyard 400. The #23 car could surprise his doubters this weekend. 

The Top Brickyard 400 Longshot

Kyle Busch (+3500) is my top longshot for the win at IMS on Sunday. I don’t see anyone with larger NASCAR odds having a better shot at winning than Busch. In fact, I don’t see any of them having a better shot at a Top 5 (+500) or Top 10 (+150) finishes. 

Like Wallace, Busch would also miss the Playoffs if they started this weekend. The #8 car sits 18^th in the driver standings, but 19^th in the Playoff standings. He’s 102 points below the cutoff line and will most likely need a win to make the postseason. 

I had Busch as a Top 10 car at Pocono last weekend and he would have pulled that off if he wasn’t intentionally wrecked on lap 120. Busch’s run of bad luck now includes five DNFs in his last seven races on the season with four of those DNFs being crashes. 

Busch had a 50% Top 10 finishing rate at Pocono and he has a 75% Top 10 finishing rate at Indianapolis. In 16 starts, Busch has two wins, five Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and a 12.1 average finish at IMS. 

When you combine his career success at Pocono and Indianapolis, that should be enough for Busch to overcome this stretch of bad luck. I’m going with Busch one more time to be my longshot choice. I also like for the two-time Cup Series champ (2015, 2019) to finish in the Top 10. 

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Brickyard 400

Last weekend at Pocono, I said this about Hamlin being my best Top 5 bet:

“Although I would prefer better odds for a Top 5 finish than Denny Hamlin at -170, there really isn’t another driver that I feel as confident in to finish in the Top 5 and win the race.”

I have the same thoughts and feelings about Denny Hamlin (-190) finishing in the Top 5 this weekend. Hamlin is tied with Busch for the most Top 5s among active drivers at IMS with five. He has a 33.3% Top 5 finishing rate at IMS, which includes four Top 5 finishes in his last seven appearances. 

You combine that Top 5 success at IMS, with his 44.1% Top 5 finishing rate at Pocono, which he finished second there last weekend, and you can see why Hamlin is my best bet for a Top 5 finish at IMS on Sunday. 

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Brickyard 400

Kyle Busch is a decent choice for this wager as well, but his run of bad luck over the last seven weeks of the season, has me going a different direction this week. 

And, that direction is Joey Logano (-160). As mentioned above, Logano is racing well over the last five weeks including a win and three Top 6s. 

But, his eight Top 10s in 12 starts at IMS is very comforting. Additionally, he has a 10.8 average finish at this track. Yet, if you just focus on the last eight races at IMS, Logano has seven Top 10s, four Top 5s, and a 7.3 average finish. Logano was 5^th at Pocono last weekend and his career success at IMS make me feel strongly that the #22 car is going to be a factor this Sunday. 

Brickyard 400 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR Brickyard 400 prop bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup: 

Kyle Busch (-110) vs. Ross Chastain (-120)

Ross Chastain is a wanted man among the field. He’s currently the final driver above the Playoff cutoff line and needs a strong result this weekend to stay ahead of drivers like Wallace and Busch. Unfortunately for Chastain, I don’t see that happening at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday.

In three Cup Series starts at this track, Chastain has a 21.7 average finish. His best result came in 2020, when he finished 17^th. Busch has an average finish of 12.1 at IMS including four Top 8 results and two wins in his last six starts at this track. 

As long as nobody intentionally wrecks Busch this weekend, I’m taking the elder statesmen to win this head-to-head NASCAR prop bet. 

Bet: Kyle Busch (-110)

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag? 

Last weekend, I picked a combination of these seven drivers to finish in the Top 5: Hamlin, Elliott, Reddick, Byron, and Larson, Keselowski or Truex. They all finished in the Top 13 at Pocono. Six of those seven drivers finished in the Top 9, and five of those drivers finished in the Top 7. That’s a solid result for my Top 5 predictions last week. Unfortunately, my race winner Tyler Reddick finished 6^th. 

This weekend, I like Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano, Larson, and Bell, Byron or Bowman to finish in the Top 5 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. 

As for the winner, I avoided Hamlin last weekend partially because I didn’t want go chalk for the third time in the last four races. That almost cost me as Hamlin finished second and was charging hard towards victory, but time ran out. 

This Sunday, I’m taking the chalk. Hamlin has not won since April 28 at Dover. That was 10 races ago. Over that span, he does have five Top 5s and two runner-up finishes. Hamlin is also one of the veteran drivers that values a win at IMS and probably also wants to kiss the bricks, if they still allow this tradition. 

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+360)

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Brickyard 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Win: Hamlin or Logano +260

I really like both Hamlin and Logano this weekend. I think both drivers could contend for the checkered flag. I have both cars finishing in the Top 5, but I’m giving Hamlin the edge to win the race. With that said, Logano does have two runner-up results at IMS and an attractive 10.8 average finish.

Bet: Hamlin or Logano +260

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (+130)
• Chevrolet (+200)
• Ford (+220)

For the first time in well over a month, all four manufacturers are close in odds to win this race. Chevy has the most wins at IMS with 17. Their last victory was in 2017 with Kasey Kahne. Ford has six wins at IMS, but did take the last three checkered flags from 2018 to 2020. 

Toyota is the odds-on favorite to win, but only has two victories at this track (2015 and 2016). However, Hamlin is the large betting favorite and he drives a Toyota car. Additionally, Reddick, Truex and Bell are Toyota drivers as well. With that said, I think we should hedge our bets here. 

I’ve taken Hamlin to win the race and Denny along with Logano in the prop bet above. For this one, I’m going to go with Ford as Blaney and Keselowski drive Ford cars and they’re listed in the Top 4 betting favorites this weekend. Additionally, Logano is the 10^th odds-on favorite to win this Sunday. Plus, Ford won last weekend in Pocono with Blaney. 

Bet: Ford +220 

Winning Car Number

• Over 12.5 (+110)
• Under 12.5 (-140)

I can’t help but laugh at how I’ve missed this prop bet nearly every week over the last five weeks. Last weekend, I purposely went with the Over to do the opposite of what I had done the previous three weeks. Guess what, that proved to be the wrong choice. Before I pick this prop bet, let’s take a look at the top cars for the Over and Under at IMS:

The top Pocono contenders for Under 12.5 are: Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11), Blaney (12)

The top Pocono contenders for Over 12.5 are: Truex (19), Bell (20), Logano (22), Byron (24), Reddick (45)

When looking at the Under, all five of the cars I have listed there should finish in the Top 10. In fact, we could see a few of them challenge for the checkered flag. I like Hamlin to win, but you can’t rule out veteran drivers like Keselowski or Busch due to their experience at this track. I’m going with my brain and gut on this one, by taking the Under. 

Bet: Under 12.5 (-140)

Brickyard 400 Group Winner

• Christopher Bell (+240)
• Joey Logano (+250)
• Ty Gibbs (+260)
• Chris Buescher (+260)

I haven’t talked as much about Christopher Bell for this race, but I do believe he has a chance to crack the Top 5 on Sunday. Albeit, I like his chances at a Top 10 more so. Bell finished 12^th at Pocono last weekend and has an 8.0 average finish at IMS.

Ty Gibbs has not run at IMS in the Cup Series and finished 21^st last weekend in Pocono dude to a blown engine. However, he did start on the pole. Buescher finished 11^th at Pocono and has an 18.8 average finish at IMS with just one Top 10 result in five starts. 

With that said, you have to know by now that I’m taking Logano to win this group bet. I believe in his chances this weekend to contend for a checkered flag. He’s outperformed these other drivers at IMS and is on a roll over the last month of the 2024 Cup Series season.

Bet: Joey Logano (+250)

Team of Race Winner 

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+150)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+200)
• Team Penske (+450)
• RFK Racing (+550)
• 23XI Racing (+900)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+2500)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2800)
• Richard Childress Racing (+3300)

Hamlin, Truex, and Bell are three solid drivers for Joe Gibbs Racing. All three have some kind of chance at winning this Sunday, with Hamlin having the best of chances out of the JGR drivers. Hendrick has Larson, Elliott, Byron and Bowman all capable of contending for checkered flags on a weekly basis. Team Penske features both Logano and Blaney who are capable of winning at 2.5 mile tracks. 

One driver from these three teams will win. I took Ford in the prop bet above, which is what Team Penske drives. I took Hamlin and his Toyota as the outright winner. I am going with Chevy’s Hendrick drivers to further hedge my bets. Additionally, Hendrick has 10 wins at IMS so far. That’s double the amount that JGR has. 

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+200)