2024 NASCAR Championship Odds and Predictions

Following the conclusion of the NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race from Bristol on Saturday, September 21, the Cup Series Playoffs executed its first round of eliminations.

Four drivers were eliminated from the Playoffs as the postseason now moves into Round 2, also known as the Round of 12. Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton were eliminated after the Bristol race last weekend.

The field of 12 drivers will compete in second round of three races beginning at Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 presented by ESPN Bet on Sunday, September 29.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Eligible Drivers

Check out the 12 driver Playoff field and how each of them is positioned heading into the postseason. The rankings are based on the Playoff Standings and will be updated at the conclusion of each Playoff Round:

Kyle Larson (+400)

• Playoff Standings: 1
• Wins: 5
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 14

Kyle Larson’s postseason quest to win a second Cup Series Championship didn’t start off well. He crashed out of the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta and plummeted down the Playoff standings.

A 12^th at Watkins Glen, after being the race favorite, got him turned back into the right direct, but Larson needed a strong performance at Bristol in order to advance to the Round of 12. The #5 car was in 10^th heading into the final race of the opening round.

Larson answered the call by dominating the Bass Pro Shops Night Race last weekend and jumped back up to the top of the Playoff Standings heading into the Round of 12. With that win, Larson also returns to being the odds-on favorite at winning the 2024 Cup Series Championship.  

Christopher Bell (+450)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 17

Christopher Bell’s first round of Playoff races went about as well as he could’ve hoped for, outside of picking up a victory. Bell finished 4^th in Atlanta, 14^th in Watkins Glen and 5^th in Bristol. He remains the second odds-on favorite to win the Championship but saw his odds fall from +400 to +450.

Bell has also become to the top driver at Joe Gibbs Racing as two of his teammates in Trues and Gibbs were eliminated. Denny Hamlin is the veteran of the group, but Bell has been far more consistent over the last few months of the season.

I expect this consistency to continue in the Round of 12 as we see Bell make a run a third consecutive run at the Championship 4 race.

Tyler Reddick (+500)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

Although Bell had a strong opening round, his odds fell. Yet, Tyler Reddick had a poor first round of the Playoffs and his odds improved from +600 to +500. I actually feel less confident in Reddick now than I did at the start of the Playoffs.

The #45 car finished 6^th in Atlanta but was 27^th in Watkins Glen and 20^th in Bristol. However, I do expect Reddick to continue advancing through at least this round of the Playoffs and challenge his career-best finish of 6^th in 2023.

Denny Hamlin (+600) 

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 13

Denny Hamlin entered the postseason as the co-betting favorite alongside Larson. However, after an up and down Round of 16, Hamlin’s Championship odds fell from +450 to +600.

In fact, Hamlin was facing an elimination unless he performed well at Bristol. The #11 car was below the cutoff line heading into the night race. Fortunately for the veteran driver, he was able to finish 4^th and advance to the next round.

With that said, Hamlin is going to need to improve his Playoff performances. A 24^th in Atlanta and 23^rd in Watkins Glen has critics concerned about his chances advancing to the Round of 8.

Ryan Blaney (+600)

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 13

The reigning Cup Series Champion Ryan Blaney started off the Playoffs with a 3^rd in Atlanta and everyone started talking about back-to-back Championships. Well, that came to quick halt after a crash at Watkins Glen left him with a 38^th finish. However, the #12 car bounced back at Bristol to finish 6^th. His title odds also improved from +700 to +600.

Moving forward, you have to like Blaney’s consistency. If it weren’t getting caught up in a wreck, there’s a good chance that the defending champ would’ve finished in the Top 10 for the Go Bowling at the Glen.

With that said, Blaney is sitting in a great position heading into the Round of 12 and should be able to advance to the next round as long as he can stay out of trouble.

William Byron (+750) 

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 14

A Top 10 in Atlanta was William Byron’s highlight of the Playoffs so far. It’s why his title odds fell from +600 to +750. Byron finished 34^th at Watkins Glen and 17^th at Bristol. Additionally, he had two consecutive crashes heading into the Playoffs.

Byron’s chances of advancing are in doubt. His only hope to advance is finishing well at Talladega on October 6^th. Byron has been consistently strong at the super speedways and this could help him move on to the Round of 8.

Chase Elliott (+950)    

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 14

Chase Elliott might not have entered the Playoffs with a ton of momentum, as he currently sits in the same position he was when the Round of 16 started. However, the #9 car finished 8^th in Atlanta, 19^th in Watkins Glen and 2^nd at Bristol.

That’s two Top 9 finishes in the opening round of the Playoffs, which directly led to his Championship odds improving from +1200 to +950.

I really like Elliott’s chances of advancing to the Round of 8 as the Charlotte Road Course is the last race of the Round of 12, and we all know how great of a road course driver that Elliott is.ace and 33 points behind Larson. There’s very little wiggle room between Logano and the cutoff line after the first three Playoff races, which only the Top 12 drivers advance.

Joey Logano (+1300)

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 9

Joey Logano shocked the field by winning his second race of the season with a huge Playoff victory in Atlanta. The two-time Cup Series Champ proved that his inconsistent regular season didn’t matter as he was up to the task in the postseason.

Although he followed up the Atlanta win with a 15^th at Watkins Glen and a 28^th at Bristol, Logano’s Championship odds improved from +1600 to +1300.

There’s some value for Logano’s title odds and to advance to the Final 4. However, I would wait to jump on these odds later in the Round of 12 as the #22 car hasn’t fared well at Kansas or Talladega in recent appearances. So, if he performs poorly at those two races, then his title and Final 4 odds will increase, which provides even more value.

Alex Bowman (+3000)

• Playoff Standings: 11
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 14

Alex Bowman entered the Playoffs in 12^th place and with +3300 odds. He slightly improved both numbers with a strong Round of 16 performance.

Bowman opened the Playoffs with a 5^th in Atlanta. He took a step back at Watkins Glen with an 18^th but roared back at Bristol with a 9^th place result. This bumped the #48 car to 11^th in the Playoff standings and also bumped his title odds from +3300 to +3000.

Bowman scored two Top 7 finishes at Kansas and Talladega already this year. That bodes well for the #48 car as those two tracks are the first two races of the Round of 12. I like Bowman to move on to the next round.

Austin Cindric (+6600)

• Playoff Standings: 9
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

Austin Cindric came into the Playoffs sitting 10^th, with title odds of +6600. After one round of Playoff races, Cindric currently sits 9^th with +6600 title odds. His championship odds improved the most out of any Playoff driver.

Cindric didn’t win a Playoff race, but he performed really well in the Round of 16. Initially, I said that the #2 car would “need some lady luck in order to advance throughout the Playoffs.”

I don’t know if it was lucky, skills or his team putting together fast cars, but Cindric has looked like a solid Playoff driver through the first three races of the postseason. The #2 car finished 10^th in Atlanta after leading 92 laps, 10^th at Watkins Glen and 13^th at Bristol. That was Cindric’s career-best result in Bristol last weekend, which I would categorize under the “lucky” banner.

Cindric will need more “luck” in the Round of 12 as Kansas and Charlotte Road Race are not tracks that he’s performed well at over his Cup Series career.

His best shot at advancing to the Round of 8 is a win or Top 5 in Talladega on October 6. Although Cindric finished 23^rd at Talladega earlier in the year, he does have a 5^th last year in the Playoff race. He also has a 9^th in that race in 2022. So, that’s two Top 9 finishes in his only two Talladega Playoff races.

Daniel Suarez (+8000)

• Playoff Standings: 10
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 7

Daniel Suarez has been a pleasant surprise. He entered the Playoffs sitting 11^th in the standings but moved up one spot after the Round of 16. Additionally, his Championship odds improved from +10000 to +8000. However, he’s still considered to be the biggest 2024 Cup Series Championship longshot alongside Chase Briscoe.

I expected Suarez to race well enough in Atlanta to have a shot at advancing to the Round of 12 and that’s exactly what he did. However, I thought Truex would perform better than he did in the Round of 16, to eliminate Suarez. Truex fell a few points shy of that quest.

With that said, I think Suarez’s magic carpet ride comes to an end in the Round of 12. These three tracks are not venues that he’s performed well at. It will take a small miracle for the #99 car to advance to the Round of 8 and I don’t see that happening.

Chase Briscoe (+8000)

• Playoff Standings: 12
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9

Chase Briscoe entered the Playoffs in 13^th after winning at Darlington and making the postseason. He was the 14^th different driver to win a race during the regular season. His title odds were +10000 at the start of the Round of 16 and are now +8000 at the start of the Round of 12. He’s still considered a massive longshot to win the title.

Briscoe’s only hope is a Top 10 in Talladega and Charlotte Road course. Even that will be difficult.

To Make Round of 4

Let’s dwindle down this field per Playoff round, and make our way to the Final 4 drivers.

Round of 16

The Round of 16 has completed as of the Bristol Night Race.  Burton, Gibbs, Truex, and Keselowski were eliminated.

Just prior to the start of the Playoffs, I picked Suarez, Briscoe, Burton and Gibbs to be eliminated. However, I thought Truex would be able to flip things and bump out Suarez. That didn’t happen as Truex was the one getting the boot.

Eliminated: Keselowski, Truex, Burton, Gibbs

Round of 12

The Round of 12 features a superspeedway race, a road course, and a mid-size track. Initially, this is where I thought Cindric and Bowman would get eliminated. I’m sticking with that prediction. However, I also see Briscoe and Suarez not making it to the Round of 8.

Logano surprised me with a win in Atlanta. I originally, had him being eliminated in the Round of 12. But I see Logano and Blaney advancing after their strong opening round performances.

Eliminated: Briscoe, Suarez, Cindric, Bowman 

Round of 8

At this stage of the Playoffs, your guess is as good as mine in regards to which drivers advance. I thought Keselowski could make it to this round, but he choked in the opening round of the Playoffs. Same with Truex.

Initially, I had Elliott and Byron joining Keselowski and Truex by being eliminated at the conclusion of the Round of 8. Now, I have Blaney and Logano getting bumped.

Eliminated: Byron, Elliott, Blaney, Logano

Round of 4

The four drivers that I believe will make the Championship race are Larson, Bell, Hamlin and Reddick. Sure, it’s not much of a stretch to pick these four drivers, but consistency is key when it comes to picking who advances in these Playoffs. So, I’m sticking with this prediction that I made at the conclusion of the regular season.

Larson, Bell and Hamlin have been three of the best drivers all Regular Season long. I predicted that one of those three drivers would get at least a victory in the postseason and Larson already accomplished that. So, I feel good about this trio getting another win in the remaining rounds.

In 2021, both of Hamlin’s wins on the season came in the Playoffs. Although he didn’t win a postseason race in 2022, Hamlin finished with five Top 5s and nine Top 10s in the 10 Playoff races. Hamlin has made the Final 4 on three occasions and was 5^th the last two years.

Over the last two postseasons, Bell has three wins in the Playoffs. In 2022, he won at Charlotte and Martinsville. Last year, he won at Homestead and had Top 3 finishes at Las Vegas and Bristol. Bell has also made the Final 4 in the last two consecutive postseasons. He’s started off the Playoffs with Two Top 5s and has a few more tracks where he will contend for checkered flags at.

In 2021, Larson absolutely destroyed the Cup Series with 10 victories and the Championship. That year, he won five of the 10 Playoff races including four of the last five races on the season. He even won three in a row over that stretch, which included the Championship Race.

In 2022, Larson won at Homestead in the Playoffs and was runner up in Martinsville. Although he finished second to Blaney for the 2023 Cup Series Championship, Larson still won two Playoff races and had four Top 3 finishes during the postseason. In two of the last three Playoffs, Larson made the Final Four.  He’s already won a race in the postseason and is favored to win a few more.

Reddick was the most consistent driver in the 2024 Cup Series regular season. In fact, he won the regular season title by beating out Larson. Reddick’s consistency took a dip in the Playoffs. He scored a Top 10 in Atlanta but finished 20^th or worse in the next two races.

With that said, his overall body of work gives me confidence that Reddick will turn things around and advance. He has won at Kansas before and has raced well at some of the upcoming Playoff tracks.

Final 4: Kyle Larson (-240), Christopher Bell (-220), Denny Hamlin (-120), Tyler Reddick (-170)

Who Wins the 2024 NASCAR Championship?

Prior to the 2024 Daytona 500, I picked Kyle Larson to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship. In my midseason review, I didn’t waiver on my Larson pick. At the beginning of the Playoffs, I picked Larson to win the title. And, after the Round of 16, there’s no reason to change my pick.

In fact, after what Larson did in Bristol for the final race of the opening round of the Playoffs, he proved that the #5 is the car to beat. I expect at least one more win from Larson in the postseason and here’s why:

The only two tracks that Larson hasn’t won at, on the Playoff schedule, are Talladega and Atlanta. He’s already got Atlanta out of the way and he won at Bristol, which is a track he’s dominated at before.

In the Round of 12, where the Talladega race takes place, Larson can afford a bad finish there because he’s won at Kansas and the Charlotte Road Race before.

In the Round of 8, Larson has had a lot of success at these tracks. He’s won three times at Vegas including the last two trips there. He has one win and two Top 4 finishes at Homestead. And he has finished in the Top 6, including two runner-up results, in his last four Martinsville appearances.

The Final 4 race is in Phoenix, where Larson has won at in his career. In fact, he has finished in the Top 9 for nine of his last 11 appearances at that venue.

After the slight hiccup in Atlanta and Watkins Glen, Larson reestablished himself as the man to beat for the 2024 Cup Series Championship. With his career success at seven of the next venues, get Larson now before his odds shrink.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+400)

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Prop Bets

The following 2024 NASCAR Championship prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

NASCAR Championship Exact Forecast

• Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell (+1600, was +900)
• Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin (+2200, was +900)
• Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick (+1800, was +1400)

For this NASCAR prop bet, courtesy of Bet365, you are wagering on who finishes first and second. I went with these three options, although there are options for all 12 remaining drivers, because they are my picks for the Final 4 contenders. Additionally, since I picked Larson to win the title, he has to be the primary driver in all options.

After the opening round of the Playoffs, I’m even more confident in my pick of Larson and Bell to finish first and second. Initially, the prop’s odds were at +900. Now, they’re at +1600 which gives us even more value.

Outside of Larson, Bell did the most to impress me of my Final 4 selections. He scored two Top 5 results over the first round of the Playoffs and has more upcoming tracks that he could win at.

In fact, over the last two Playoffs, Bell has three postseason wins and has made the Championship Race in both of those years. He was 4^th last year and 3^rd in 2022. I think Bell ends up finishing 2^nd this year behind Larson, which is a slight bump from his last two results.

Bet: Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell (+1600)

Winning Manufacture

• Toyota (+115)
• Chevrolet (+140)
• Ford (+325)

Although I think Larson will win the title, let’s hedge our bets by picking Toyota for this option. It’s the approach I took at the start of the Playoffs, and it only makes sense to keep it going.

If we’re just focusing on the current Playoff format, since its 2015 inception, then all three manufacturers have won the Championship three times each. Ford and Chevy have won the last four Cup Series Championships, but I’m sticking with Toyota for this prop bet to hedge our wagers.

Three of Final 4 drivers all drive Toyota: Bell, Hamlin and Reddick. So, it makes sense, at this point of the Playoffs, to roll with Toyota as a hedge opportunity.

Bet: Toyota (+115)

Winning Team

• Hendrick Motorsports (+130)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+200)
• Team Penske (+350)
• 23XI Racing (+500)
• Trackhouse Racing (+8000)
• Steward-Haas Racing (+8000)

At the beginning of the Playoffs, I thought Joe Gibbs racing was a great way to hedge our bets as we had four of their drivers in the field of 16. However, after the Round of 16 has concluded, two of the JGR drivers have been eliminated.

Out of the 12 remaining drivers, Hendrick Motorsports has four: Larson, Elliott, Byron and Bowman. I believe three of those drivers will advance to the Round of 8 and Larson advances to the Round of 4 where he wins the title.

As we head into the second round of the Playoffs, let’s take Hendrick for this pop bet.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+130)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: