2024 NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Odds and Race Winner

DocSports, The most trusted name in sports handicapping

On Sunday, September 1, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Darlington Raceway for the Cook Out Southern 500. This weekend’s event marks the 26th and final race of the 2024 Cup Series Regular Season. 

There are still three spots up for grabs in the 16-driver field for the Cup Series Playoffs, which begin on September 8 in Atlanta. Once the green flag drops in Atlanta, the eligible drivers will begin their quest to win the Cup Series Championship.

Last weekend in Daytona, we saw the 13th different winner of the year as Harrison Burton pulled off a shocking and emotional victory in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. With his father calling the race for NBC, Burton fended off a hard charging Kyle Busch to win the race on the final lap. 

It was a “feel-good” moment seeing Geoff Burton celebrating in the commentary booth as his son won by the nose of his car. Additionally, Harrison Burton doesn’t have a ride for next season. He’s fulfilling the rest of his contract for this season, but Woods Brothers already replaced Burton for next season. 

Although any longshot could potentially win this weekend, the reality is that six drivers will compete for the final three Playoff spots at the track that fans and racers have affectionately dubbed “The Lady in Black.” 

Currently, Tyler Reddick not only leads the Driver Standings but he’s also the odds-on favorite to win this race. Reddick is followed closely by Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and William Byron.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Cook Out Southern 500 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s final regular season race at Darlington Raceway. 

In addition to our standard Cup Series race winner and race prop bets, we’ll also break down the six drivers contending for the Playoffs and predict which ones will actually get in. 

Cook Out Southern 500

In addition to being called The Lady in Black, Darlington has also earned the moniker “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” One of the sport’s greatest drivers of all-time, Jimmy Johnson, stated that the Southern 500 is the toughest race of the season due to the distance, heat, and focus needed to run up near the fence for 500 miles. 

This race, and track, is widely considered one of the sport’s crown jewels as Darlington has been a part of NASCAR since September 1950. Although the race has taken on different names, most longtime fans, drivers and NASCAR personalities still refer to this race as the Southern 500. 

Darlington Raceway is an oval-shaped track that looks a bit like an egg. The surface is made of asphalt with a lap distance of 1.366 miles and four turns with banking at 23 to 25 degrees. The front and back straightaways have banking from 2 to 3 degrees. 

Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 race breaks down as follows:

  • Total Miles: 501 miles
  • Total Laps: 367 laps
  • Stage 1: 115 laps
  • Stage 2: 115 laps
  • Final Stage: 137 laps

The Cook Out Southern 500 is set to begin at 6:00 pm ET and will air live on USA Network and NBC Sports.

Previous Cook Out Southern 500 Winners

Jeff Gordon holds the record for the most Southern 500 wins with six. Cale Yarborough is second all-time with five. Among active drivers, Denny Hamlin has the most wins in this race with three. David Pearson has the most wins ever at Darlington Raceway with 10. 

The following is a list of recent Southern 500 winners:

  • 2023: Kyle Larson
  • 2022: Erik Jones
  • 2021: Denny Hamlin
  • 2020: Kevin Harvick
  • 2019: Erik Jones
  • 2018: Brad Keselowski
  • 2017: Denny Hamlin
  • 2016: Martin Truex Jr.

NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 OddsNASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Odds
Tyler Reddick +450Kyle Larson +550
Denny Hamlin +550Brad Keselowski +800
William Byron +850Ty Gibbs +1000
Martin Truex Jr. +1100Christopher Bell +1200
Ryan Blaney +1600Joey Logano +1600
Kyle Busch +1600Chris Buescher +1800
Ross Chastain +2000Chase Elliott +2000
Bubba Wallace +2500Erik Jones +2800
Alex Bowman +5000Josh Berry +5000

NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Cook Out Southern 500:

Tyler Reddick +450

  • Standings: 1
  • Win: 2
  • Top 5: 11
  • Top 10: 17

Tyler Reddick has been the poster boy for consistency this season in the Cup Series. He sits on top of the Driver Standings with two wins, 11 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s, three Stage Wins, and an 11.2 average finish which is the best among the field. His Top 5s and Top 10s also lead the Cup Series. 

Reddick crashed out of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 last weekend, as did many drivers. That DNF snapped a streak of seven straight Top 6 results, which also included winning the FireKeepers Casino 400 in Michigan two races ago. Over that stretch, Reddick also had two runner ups and two third place finishes. 

He definitely has the most momentum heading into the Playoffs. However, Reddick has never won at Darlington in the Cup Series. In 10 races, he has three Top 5s, four Top 10s and a 13.4 average finish. In the May Darlington race, Reddick finished 32nd after leading 174 laps. He was 2nd in this race last year and third in 2022. 

If there’s any driver capable of a first-time win at Darlington this weekend, Reddick is definitely at the top of this list. He should be a Top 5 car for this race with a real shot at the checkered flag. 

Kyle Larson +550

  • Standings: 2
  • Win: 4
  • Top 5: 9
  • Top 10: 12

Kyle Larson spent the better part of the season as the top driver in the standings. After his crash at Michigan, he fell to third place. However, a 21st finish at Daytona last weekend bumped Larson back up to 2nd overall. 

The #5 car has four wins, nine Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and a 14.0 average finish on the season. He also has eight stage wins, which is second among all drivers. Only Christopher Bell has more with 10. Larson leads the Cup Series with those four wins and with 28 Playoff Points. 

With that said, Larson does have two crashes in the last six races on the season. Additionally, he also crashed in the Spring Darlington race this year. However, he did win the 2023 Southern 500 race and does have a respectable resume at this track. 

In 13 Darlington appearances, Larson has one win, six Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and an 11.3 average finish which is third best among the field. Over his last five appearances in the Southern 500, Larson has one win, four Top 3s and a 4.0 average finish. 

Like Reddick, you can expect Larson to be a Top 5 car this weekend with a real shot at winning the checkered flag. 

Denny Hamlin +550

  • Standings: 8
  • Win: 3
  • Top 5: 9 
  • Top 10: 11

The big reason why you can’t outright say that Larson or Reddick are the cars to beat, is because of this man – Denny Hamlin. Without a doubt, the #11 car is the driver to beat on Sunday. 

Surprisingly, Hamlin is the third odds-on favorite to win this race as he comes in behind Larson and Reddick with the sportsbooks. A big reason for that is due to his rough stretch of racing these last few months. 

Over the last 10 races on the season, Hamlin has fallen from first in the standings to 8th. He also has 3 DNFs with two being crashes. One of those crashes came last weekend at Daytona. In those 10 races, Hamlin has six finishes of 24th or worse. Yet, he did snag two runner ups as well: Cook Out 400 at Richmond and the Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono. 

With that out of the way, we can turn our attention towards why Hamlin is the driver to beat on Sunday. First, he’s already locked in for the Playoffs and has nothing to lose by going for the race win. Second, he’s the best active driver at Darlington. 

Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 wins, 13 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s, and an 8.3 average finish. He’s won this race on three separate occasions. The #11 car was 4th in the Spring Darlington race. 

He led the most laps in this race last year, but was caught up in some late lap shenanigans that dropped him to 25th. However, Hamlin was 2nd in this race in 2022 and won this race in 2021. 

The Lady in Black might have a dance partner on Sunday, and that partner is Hamlin!

Brad Keselowski +800

  • Standings: 7
  • Win: 1
  • Top 5: 8 
  • Top 10: 12

Brad Keselowski has returned to contender status this season after a rough time last year. In fact, he’s had a few subpar seasons where critics and fans were questioning his ability to compete for the sport’s top prize. Well, Keselowski has silenced those doubters with a solid 2024 season to date. 

The #6 car has one win, eight Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and a 14.1 average finish on the season. He also sits 7th in the Driver Standings with two consecutive Top 8 finishes. Last weekend, Keselowski was 8th in Daytona. Two races ago, he finished 5th in Michigan. 

Now, Keselowski returns to a track where he’s been one of the best active drivers at. In fact, if it weren’t for Hamlin, Keselowski would be the top driver at Darlington. 

In 21 starts at this raceway, Keselowski has two wins, seven Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and a 10.9 average finish. His wins, Top 5s and average finish are all second best among the field. He’s third in Top 10s.

Keselowski’s only win on the year happened to come at the Spring Darlington race. In fact, Keselowski has five Top 7 finishes in his last six races at this track, which includes four Top 7 results in a row. 

In his last six Southern 500 appearances, Keselowski has a 6.1 average finish with a win in 2018, and all six results in the Top 11. I like for the #6 car to be a Top 5 driver with a Top 3 ceiling this weekend. I have a hard time thinking that he will sweep Darlington this year. 

William Byron +850

  • Standings: 5
  • Win: 3
  • Top 5: 8
  • Top 10: 13

Although he has two crashes in the last four races, you have to give William Byron plenty of credit for being a solid driver all season long. Byron has three wins, eight Top 5s, and 13 Top 10s this year and sits 5th in the Driver Standings. Yet, he’s overlooked with Hendrick Motorsports and in the field on a weekly basis. 

Well, this might be the week that you actually consider Byron as a real contender to win the race. In 12 Darlington starts, Byron has one win, four Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 14.8 average finish. Over his last eight appearances, he has one win, four Top 5s, and six Top 10s. 

In fact, he’s finished 8th or better in four straight Darlington appearances. His victory came in the 2023 Spring Darlington race. Yet, he’s led laps in four of the last five races at this track. 

Byron was 6th in this year’s Spring Darlington race and 4th in last year’s Southern 500. He has a 4.7 average finish over his last four appearances here. 

I think the #24 car has a Top 3 ceiling this weekend. And, maybe with a little lady luck, he could snag a win. 

The Best NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the Cook Out Southern 500 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at Darlington Raceway:

Joey Logano +1600

  • Standings: 15
  • Win: 1
  • Top 5: 4 
  • Top 10: 7

Joey Logano is one of my top value bets this weekend to win the race. I would put Hamlin’s odds and Erik Jones longshot status as the best value for the Southern 500. 

Logano is one of only eight active drivers with a win at Darlington, along with being one of only five active drivers to have double-digit Top 10 finishes. In 21 starts at Darlington, Logano has one win, six Top 5s, 10 Top 10s and a 13.6 average finish which is seventh best among the field. 

Logano’s lone Darlington win came in the 2022 spring race, so it hasn’t been that long ago that he tamed this track. Over his last six appearances, Logano has a 10.6 average finish. He was 12th in this race last year, 4th in 2022, and 8th in 2021, which translates into a 6.0 average finish over his last three Southern 500 races. 

If there’s one Playoff driver who needs to turn things around before the postseason begins, it’s Logano. Hamlin too, but Logano probably more so. The #22 car has three DNFs in the last four races including two crashes in a row. Over the last six races on the season, he has five finishes of 19th or worse and an average finish of 24.1. 

I expect Logano to be a Top 10 driver on Sunday and could also use some of that lady luck to contend for the race win. 

The Best NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Longshot

Erik Jones (+2800) is my longshot choice to win on Sunday. And, if he does, then he will be the 14th different driver to win on the year and he would snag a Playoff spot which would be rather remarkable considering how subpar he’s been this season. 

In 23 starts, Jones has just one Top 10 result and a 22.0 average finish. Fortunately for the #43 car, he’s heading to a track where he loves to dance with the lady in black. 

In 13 appearances at Darlington, Jones has two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 12.4 average finish which is 4th best. He’s tied with Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. for the second most Darlington wins among the field. Yet, both of his Darlington wins have come in the Southern 500.

Now, Jones has had three subpar finishes over the last three trips to this track. However, he won this race in 2022 and 2019. So, it hasn’t been that long since he’s tamed this raceway. 

As a longshot, Jones could be worth a flier for the race win, Top 5 and Top 10 finishes. 

NASCAR Playoff Bubble Watch

Let’s take a further look at the six Cup Series drivers that are still competing for the three final spots in the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs. Unlike the names above, these drivers are listed by their Playoff Standings and not the Driver Standings:

Martin Truex Jr. +1100

  • Standings: 14th 
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 4 
  • Top 10: 9

Heading into Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. is 58 points above the cutoff line. Of the six drivers battling for the final three spots, he has the best chance at making the Playoffs. Truex would have to crash out of Darlington, and the three drivers below him finish much higher, and/or one of them win for the #19 car to be out of the postseason. 

With that said, even the longshot possibility of Truex missing the postseason, should have this veteran driver motivated for a strong finish in his final year as a full-time driver. 

In 24 starts, Truex has two wins, four Top 5s, 10 Top 10s and a respective 13.9 average finish at Darlington. Unfortunately, his 3 career DNFs all have come in the last five races. 

In fact, Truex has five straight Darlington finishes of 18th or worse. Four of those results are 24th or worse. He hasn’t won at this track since the spring of 2021. 

For Truex, the race plan should be to stay out of trouble, finish high in the stages, and come home with a Top 10 result. If he can do that, then the #19 car will cruise to a Playoff spot. 

Ty Gibbs +1000  

  • Standings: 15th 
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 7 
  • Top 10: 11

Ty Gibbs is one spot behind Truex and just 19 points down. So, a solid run on Sunday could help him to leapfrog the veteran driver and solidify a postseason spot. 

Gibbs comes into this race with two consecutive Top 5 finishes and three in his last six races. He’s 10th in the Driver Standings, but can’t afford any mistakes this weekend or he could end up below the cutoff line. 

In four Darlington starts, Gibbs has one Top 5 and one Top 10 result with a 13.5 average finish. Gibbs scored a 2nd place finish in the Spring Darlington race this year. Yet, his three previous trips to Darlington all resulted in 15th or worse finishes. Gibbs has an 18.0 average finish in his two Southern 500 races. 

With that said, I expect a similar race plan for the #54 car as I laid out with Truex. 

Chris Buescher +1800

  • Standings: 16th 
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 5 
  • Top 10: 11

The one driver under the most pressure this weekend is Chris Buescher who sits in the 16th and final spot above the cutoff line. He’s just 21 points ahead of Bubba Wallace and they both have similar numbers on the year. 

Buescher finished 10th in Daytona last weekend and 6th in Michigan two weekends ago. So, he has a little bit of momentum coming into Darlington. And, he’s going to need that momentum considering that Buescher has never won at Darlington in the Cup Series and has just a 17.4 average finish. 

In 14 Darlington starts, Buescher has one Top 5 and four Top 10s. Now, he was third in this race last year, but finished 26th in this race two years ago and was 30th in the Spring Darlington race this season. 

In his last five Darlington races, Buescher has a 17.0 average finish, which is right on par with his career average at this track. That’s not much better than Wallace’s and it’s notably behind Busch’s average finish at Darlington. 

Although Buescher showed a lot of confidence in his post-race interview at Daytona, I don’t have the same confidence as he does. In fact, I think he’s in trouble this weekend. 

Bubba Wallace +2500

  • Standings: 17th 
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 5 
  • Top 10: 10

I went out on a limb last weekend and picked Bubba Wallace to win at Daytona. He had a chance to win the race in the end, after surviving two wrecks on the final laps, but Wallace ended up 6th instead. That was his fourth Top 10 result in the last five races. 

On the season, Wallace has one less Top 10 than Buescher does and better results than Chastain and Busch. However, the #23 car has more momentum over the last five weeks than most of these other bubble drivers except maybe Busch. 

At Darlington, Wallace has one Top 5, four Top 10s, and an 18.5 average finish in 12 starts. Now, these numbers aren’t going to blow your mind. With that said, most of his troubles were early in his career. Since moving to 23XI racing a few years ago, Wallace has put together four straight Top 9 results at Darlington. 

He was 7th in this race last year and 9th in 2022. Additionally, he finished 7th in the Spring Darlington race this year. I definitely like Wallace’s chances this weekend over all of the bubble drivers except maybe Busch. 

Ross Chastain +2000

  • Standings: 18th 
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 3 
  • Top 10: 8

Ross Chastain currently sits 14th in the Driver Standings, but is 18th in the Playoff Standings which is what counts the most. He’s just six points behind Wallace, but is 27 points below the cutoff line. So, not only will Chastain have to try to beat out Buescher and Wallace, he will also have to fend off Kyle Busch who is below him in the standings. 

Chastain finished 12th at Daytona last weekend, which is an accomplishment in itself considering the craziness of those super speedway races. However, he has just one Top 5 and Top 10 result in the last seven races, which isn’t going to cut it this weekend. 

Making matters worse for the #1 car is the fact that he’s not raced well at this track for his career, except the last two races. 

In 10 starts, Chastain has two Top 5s, two Top 10s, a 19.8 average finish, and 2 DNFs. Those two crashes have come in the last five Darlington races. Yet, he was 11th in the Spring race here and 5th in the Southern 500 last year. With that said, Chastain does have six finishes of 20th or worse, and five finishes of 28th or worse at Darlington. 

For Chastain, Darlington Raceway has proven to be too tough to tame and I expect that trend to continue this weekend. 

Kyle Busch +1600

  • Standings: 19th 
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 4 
  • Top 10: 8

As mentioned, Kyle Busch sits one spot below Chastain but is 79 points behind him. Busch needs a Hail Mary to make the Playoffs, which means he needs to win on Sunday. Fortunately for the two-time champ, he already has a Darlington victory in his career. 

In 25 starts, Busch has one win, six Top 5s, 14 Top 10s and a 13.9 average finish, which is eighth best among the field. Yet, he does have four finishes of 27th or worse in his last six appearances at Darlington. 

Busch finished 4th at Michigan two weeks ago and was runner up last weekend in Daytona. He also led laps in both races as well. He’s come so close to winning, but still ends up short. 

As much as I’ve wanted to see Busch keep his streak of wins and Playoff appearances alive, I’m having a hard time seeing him make the Playoffs this weekend. 

Which NASCAR Bubble Driver Makes the Playoffs?

I’m not the biggest Bubba Wallace fan, but I loved the intensity he showed in his post-Daytona race interview last weekend. And, I think he has the best chance of capturing the 16th and final spot in a battle between himself, Buescher, Chastain and Busch. 

I see Truex and Gibbs making it into the Playoffs with Top 10 finishes. I don’t believe that any of the bubble drivers will win the race, so it will come down to how well they finish on the stages and on the final lap. For me, that means Bubba Wallace captures that final Playoff spot in a thrilling battle at Darlington. 

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Cook Out Southern 500

Denny Hamlin (-105) is the safe and smart choice as the best bet to finish in the Top 5. And, with -105 odds, you have to love that value. 

Honestly, I love everything about Hamlin this weekend. He has four wins at Darlington including three in the Southern 500. He has 13 Top 5s, which is a 54.2 Top 5 finishing rate. And, he has an 8.3 average finish at Darlington which is the best among the field. 

The #11 car is the driver to beat on Sunday. 

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Cook Out Southern 500

As I mentioned above, if it weren’t for Hamlin, then Brad Keselowski (-225) would be the top driver at Darlington among the field. So, it should come as no surprise that we’re going with the #6 car as our best bet to finish in the Top 10. 

Yeah, I know that his odds don’t offer value. But, he’s a solid driver this weekend and I want to go into the Playoffs with some momentum. 

Keselowski has 12 Top 10s in 21 Darlington races, which is a 57.1% Top 10 finishing rate. He also has a 10.9 career average finish at this track including four straight Top 7 results and the race win in May. 

Cook Out Southern 500 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup: 

Ryan Blaney (-115) vs. Kyle Busch (-115)

There’s no doubt about Ryan Blaney being the better driver this season between these two. He has exceeded Busch in all metrics including wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, average finish and laps led on the year. 

However, at Darlington, Blaney hasn’t been as good as Busch over their respective careers. In fact, it’s a reversal of fortunes between these two drivers. 

Busch has more wins (1 to 0), Top 5s (6 to 0), Top 10s (14 to 3) and average finish of 13.9 to 18.5. 

Blaney has nothing to race for this weekend other than maybe a few more Playoff points and to avoid falling down in the Playoff standings. He’s currently 5th, but could drop to 6th. Busch is fighting for his Playoff life and legacy. 

For this NASCAR prop bet, take Busch to win in this head-to-head matchup. 

Bet: Kyle Busch (-115) 

NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag? 

Here we go! The final race of the 2024 Cup Series regular season. My Top 5 drivers are Hamlin, Larson, Keselowski, Jones and Reddick, Logano or Wallace. 

As for the race winner, I’ve alluded to it a few times now. Denny Hamlin is the man to beat. The veteran driver has had a rough stretch over the last few months and needs momentum heading into the Playoffs. 

If you recall, Hamlin is one of the best Cup Series drivers at Pocono and he finished runner up a few races ago. This weekend, I believe the #11 car makes good on being the best driver at Darlington by taming the track and winning the Cook Out Southern 500. 

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+550)

NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Win: Larson or Busch (+400)

I think Busch is a longshot to win this weekend, but he has everything to race for including a Playoff spot. Larson is one of the betting favorites and I believe he will compete with Hamlin for the race win. 

With that said, getting both of these drivers in this prop bet is appealing to me, especially with those +400 odds. Larson’s odds to win the race are +550 and that’s prior to qualifying. So, I could see his odds shrink some. Busch is the wild card here and needs a win to get into the Playoffs. So, getting Larson a little lower than his race winning odds, but picking up another driver as well, sounds like decent value to me.

Bet: Kyle Larson or Kyle Busch (+400)

Either To Finish Top 3: Keselowski or Logano (+130)

Former Penske teammates are my choice to finish in the Top 3. In fact, Keselowski is a real threat to win this weekend as well. Outside of Hamlin, Keselowski is the best Darlington driver. 

Logano has decent numbers at Darlington including one career victory. He also has a 13.6 average finish, which is slightly behind Keselowski at 10.9. 

Logano has a 6.0 average finish over his last three Southern 500 races and Keselowski won the Spring Darlington race this year, along with four consecutive Top 7 finishes at this track. 

These +130 odds offer solid value considering how well these two drivers have competed at Darlington over the last few years. Not to mention, they’re also two of the top drivers in the field. One of these drivers has a real shot at finishing in the Top 3 for the Southern 500. 

Bet: Brad Keselowsk or Joey Logano (+130)

Winning Manufacturer

  • Toyota (+100)
  • Chevrolet (+200)
  • Ford (+280)

I like this prop bet as an opportunity to hedge with Denny Hamlin as the race winner. Hamlin drives a Toyota, as does Truex, Bell and Wallace. However, Chevy also has some top drivers this weekend including Larson, Elliott, Byron, Bowman, Chastain and Busch. 

Chevy also has the most manufacturer wins in the Southern 500 with 29. Ford is second with 16 and Toyota has eight. I’m taking Chevy for this prop bet, just to hedge with Hamlin. 

Bet: Chevrolet (+200)

Cook Out Southern 500 Group Winner

  • Ryan Blaney (+225)
  • Joey Logano (+225)
  • Ross Chastain (+300)
  • Chase Elliott (+300)

We’ve already analyzed three of these drivers above: Blaney, Logano and Chastain. Of those three, I think Logano finishes higher. Now, the question comes down to whether or not Elliott can finish better than Logano. 

Elliott has four Top 5s, seven Top 10s and a 16.7 average finish in 15 Darlington starts. He was 8th in this race last year, 36th in 2022 and 31st in 2027. Both of those poor results were DNFs. As mentioned above, Logano has a 6.0 average finish in the last three Southern 500 events. His 13.6 average finish is also better than Elliott’s. 

Lastly, Logano has six more career starts at Darlington (21 to 15) and only has one DNF compared to four by Elliott. 

I’m taking Logano to win this group prop bet as I think he will be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling. Chastain might crack the Top 12, but Elliott and Blaney will most likely be in the 15 to 20 range at best.

Bet: Joey Logano (+225)

Team of Race Winner 

  • Joe Gibbs Racing (+180)
  • Hendrick Motorsports (+240)
  • 23XI Racing (+425)
  • RFK Racing (+600)
  • Team Penske (+800)
  • Richard Childress Racing (+1800)
  • Trackhouse Racing (+2000)
  • Stewart-Haas Racing (+2200)

This last NASCAR prop bet could either be a straight up wager on our favorite option or it could be another chance at hedging our bets.

Realistically, the only other option I would consider is Hendrick Motorsports as they have the most Southern 500 victories with 12. However, Joe Gibbs Racing has eight victories in this race and has been around eight less years than Hendrick’s team. I’m going to roll with JGR in this race. 

Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (+180)
WinningCappers, The most trusted name in sports handicapping