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2024 NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds, Predictions and Winner
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On Sunday, August 18, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. This weekend’s event marks the 24th race of the 2024 Cup Series Season. Including this event, there are three races left before the Cup Series Playoffs begin and the 16 qualified drivers compete for the Cup Series Championship.
Last week at the Cook Out 400 in Richmond, we got our 13th different winner of the season as Austin Dillon smashed his way to the front of the field to win the race. His late-race tactics irked a few drivers including Joey Logano who ended up in the wall due to Dillon.
The victory has cemented Dillon in the Playoffs. With three races left, the battle for the final three positions above the cutoff line is intensifying. In fact, the 16th and final spot is occupied by Bubba Wallace. However, he’s just three points ahead of Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher. The latter won this race last year.
Kyle Larson enters this weekend’s Michigan event as the odds-on favorite. He’s followed by Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski. In addition to these pre-race favorites, there’s plenty of value to be found on the board.
Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 odds and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s Michigan International Speedway event.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Profile
The NASCAR Cup Series has been racing at Michigan International Speedway (MIS) since 1969. For over 50 years, the Cup Series raced twice each season (June and August) at this track. However, in 2021, the June race was dropped due to realignment as the sport added other tracks to its annual calendar.
The MIS is a D-shaped oval track with an asphalt surface and a lap length of two miles. The four turns have banking of 18 degrees, while the frontstretch has 12 degrees banking and the backstretch has 5 degrees banking.
Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 race breaks down as follows:
- Total Miles: 400 miles
- Total Laps: 200 laps
- Stage 1: 45 laps
- Stage 2: 75 laps
- Final Stage: 80 laps
The FireKeepers Casino 400 is set to begin at 2:30 pm ET and will air live on USA Network.
Previous FireKeepers Casino 400 Winners
David Pearson holds the record for most Michigan wins with 9. More specifically, he also holds the record with five August Michigan races. Kevin Harvick is tied with Pearson for the most August wins at this speedway. Of active drivers, Kyle Larson has the most August wins with two.
The following is a list of recent winners for the August Michigan race.
- 2023: Chris Buescher
- 2022: Kevin Harvick
- 2021: Ryan Blaney
- 2020: Kevin Harvick
- 2019: Kevin Harvick
- 2018: Kevin Harvick
- 2017: Kyle Larson
- 2016: Kyle Larson
When counting both the June and August races, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano lead the field with three Michigan wins apiece.
NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds
The following NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:
| NASCAR Odds | NASCAR Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson +550 | Denny Hamlin +600 |
| Ryan Blaney +650 | Tyler Reddick +700 |
| Brad Keselowski +900 | Christopher Bell +1000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. +1000 | Joey Logano +1000 |
| Chase Elliott +1200 | William Byron +1200 |
| Chris Buescher +1600 | Ty Gibbs +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace +2000 | Alex Bowman +3000 |
| Ross Chastain +4000 | Kyle Busch +4000 |
| Daniel Suarez +5000 | Josh Berry +10000 |
NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Favorites
The following drivers are the odds-on favorites to win the FireKeepers Casino 400:
Kyle Larson +550
- Standings: 1
- Win: 4
- Top 5: 9
- Top 10: 12
I picked Kyle Larson to finish in the Top 5 last weekend at Richmond and contend for the checkered flag. He came up just a bit short of my predictions as he finished 7th, but did lead 17 laps. It’s the second straight Top 10 finish for the #5 car who won the Brickyard 400 two races ago.
Larson remains on top of the driver standings, where he’s been since late-March. In fact, Larson has been in the Top 2 of the standings for almost the entire season to date. He comes into Michigan as the man to beat, largely due to his success at this speedway and two-mile tracks.
Being fully transparent, once I saw that Michigan was on the docket, and before I looked at the NASCAR odds for this weekend’s race, I immediately thought of Larson as my pick to win. So, I’m going to challenge myself the rest of this article to see if anyone other than Denny Hamlin has a real shot at beating the #5 car this Sunday.
In 15 MIS appearances, Larson has three wins, seven Top 5s, and nine Top 10s. He’s scored four straight Top 7 results including finishing 5th in this race last year. Larson won three consecutive Michigan races from the fall of 2016 and both events in 2017.
In his last 11 MIS starts, he has three wins, seven Top 5s and eight Top 10s. His 10.9 average finish is the third best among the field. Whether you bet on Larson to win the race or not, you have to seriously consider him for a Top 5 finish and a real shot at the checkered flag.
Denny Hamlin +600
- Standings: 4
- Win: 3
- Top 5: 9
- Top 10: 10
As mentioned, Denny Hamlin is the one driver that I think can realistically challenge Larson this weekend, if all cars are running equally. I had Hamlin as a Top 5 driver last weekend and my alternate choice for winning the race.
Although I picked Hamlin’s teammate Christopher Bell to win, I had Hamlin and Larson as my “Either To Win” prop bet. The #11 car finished runner-up last weekend after leading 124 laps. Dillon’s smashmouth final laps prevented Hamlin from winning. It was the second runner-up result for the #11 car in the last three races. In-between those second-place finishes, Hamlin crashed out of the Brickyard 400.
At Michigan, Hamlin has two wins, 12 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s and a 12.3 average finish which is tied for the 5th best among active drivers. His two Michigan wins give him the second most among the field, behind Logano and Larson.
Hamlin has six straight Top 6 finishes at MIS. In fact, He has nine Top 10 results in the last 12 races. He’s also led laps in eight consecutive MIS races. Hamlin has finished third in this race for the last two years, and in the Top 5 for the last four years. You can safely pencil Hamlin in for another Top 5 finish with a solid chance at the checkered flag.
Ryan Blaney +650
- Standings: 5
- Win: 2
- Top 5: 7
- Top 10: 11
Ryan Blaney’s 11th place finish last weekend in Richmond, snapped a four-race streak of finishing in the Top 10. However, he still sits 5th in the standings with two victories on the year. His most recent win came at Pocono three races ago. Sandwiched between Richmond and Pocono, was a 3rd place finish at Indianapolis.
The defending Cup Series champ had a slow first half of the season to date. However, he’s heated up over the last eight races with two wins, three Top 5s, and six Top 10s. The #12 car also finished each of those races without any major incident. In the first half of the season, he had 3 DNFs.
At Michigan, Blaney has one win, five Top 5s, and eight Top 10s in 15 starts. He also has a 14.1 average finish which puts him in the Top 10 among the field. Blaney won this race in 2021, and has three straight Top 9 finishes. In fact, over the last nine Michigan races, he has one win, four Top 5s, and seven Top 10s.
This is the type of track where Blaney can excel at, especially if his car is running well. I fully expect the #12 car to be in the Top 10 for most of the day, with a Top 3 ceiling. I’m hesitant to pick him to win this race as I feel Larson and Hamlin have slightly better chances at winning.
Tyler Reddick +700
- Standings: 2
- Win: 1
- Top 5: 10
- Top 10: 16
Tyler Reddick has been flying under the radar for most of the season. He’s hardly ever picked to win a race and he’s not often talked about as a real contender to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship. Yet, the #45 car is the most consistent driver among the field.
On the season, he sits second in the standings and has slowly moved up a spot each week over the last six races. During that span, Reddick has six consecutive Top 6 finishes including two runner ups at Chicago and Indianapolis.
Reddick also leads the Series with 10 Top 5s and 16 Top 10s. He’s got the best average start at 9.3 and the second-best average finish of 10.9, which is slightly behind Chase Elliott at 10.4.
This is clearly a driver with the skills to make it through the Playoff rounds and into the Final 4 at the end of the season. Fortunately for Reddick, Michigan is not a Playoff race because he’s been dreadful at this track.
In five Cup Series starts at Michigan, Reddick has never even cracked the Top 10. In fact, his best finish was 18th in 2020. Last year, he was 30th and has three straight finishes of 29th or worse. Reddick sports a 26.0 average finish at MIS, which is just abysmal.
His strong season is the reason why oddsmakers have the #45 car listed so high on the boards. Yet, he’s clearly overvalued and should be avoided in all FireKeepers Casino 400 wagers, except the head-to-head matchup below.
Brad Keselowski +900
- Standings: 9
- Win: 1
- Top 5: 7
- Top 10: 10
Brad Keselowski let me down last weekend in Richmond. I had him as my best Top 10 bet since he had 17 consecutive Top 15 finishes at that track. Unfortunately, Keselowski ended up 16th. The #6 car is officially in a mini-slump after a hot start to the season.
Over the last six races on the season, Keselowski has five finishes of 16th or worse including three outside the Top 20. He only has one Top 10 finish and that was 7th at Pocono. Going back further, Keselowski only has two Top 10 results in the last eight races.
Fortunately for the former Cup Series champ, he still is locked into the postseason with a win at Darlington in May.
Michigan has been a good track for Keselowski in his career. Although he’s never won there in 26 appearances, Keselowski still has eight Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, and his 12.3 average finish is tied with Hamlin and Logano for the 5th best in the Cup Series.
Keselowski was 4th in this race last year, and does have six Top 10 finishes in the last nine Michigan races. I’m not going to declare Keselowski as my best Top 10 bet this weekend, but I do like for the #6 car to finish in the Top 10. His 53.8% Top 10 finishing rate, combined with his six Top 10s in the last nine Michigan races, has me feeling good about his chances to breakout of this mini-slump.
The Best NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Value
The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the FireKeepers Casino 400 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at Michigan International Speedway:
Joey Logano +1000
- Standings: 15
- Win: 1
- Top 5: 4
- Top 10: 7
Like his former Team Penske teammate Keselowski, Joey Logano is also in a mini-slump heading into Michigan. The #22 car has four finishes of 19th or worse in the last six races on the year. However, over that span, he also has a win which came in Nashville at the Ally 400. Logano also snagged a 5th place finish at Pocono three races ago.
With that said, Logano is putting up some of his worst numbers in recent years. A 30.4% Top 10 finishing rate on the year is awful for the former two-time Cup Series champ. Additionally, he only has one win and just four Top 5 finishes.
Fortunately, Logano is heading to a track where he’s had a great deal of success at over the years. In 27 MIS starts, Logano has three wins, eight Top 5s, and 19 Top 10s. Although his last victory at Michigan came five years ago, he’s had three Top 8 finishes since then.
Logano is tied with Hamlin for the most Michigan Top 10s among the field. However, he’s done it in six less races than Hamlin and also has more wins and laps led. In fact, Logano almost doubles the next driver in laps led at this track.
I expect Logano to run in the Top 10 most of the day. He has a Top 3 ceiling and could win this race if lady luck favors him in the final laps.
Chase Elliott +1200
- Standings: 3
- Win: 1
- Top 5: 7
- Top 10: 12
The oddsmakers got this line wrong for Chase Elliott. He should be ranked higher on the boards. I think Elliott offers the best betting value for the weekend, and here’s why.
On the season, Elliott sits third in the standings. Like Reddick, he has been the most consistent driver in the field. The #9 car has less Top 5s and Top 10s than Reddick, and was just bumped from the second spot by the #45 car, but Elliott does still have the best average finish in the field at 10.4.
Additionally, he doesn’t have one DNF on the year, which means he’s been able to complete every race and stay out of trouble for the most part. Elliott also has three straight Top 10 finishes. I had him as a Top 7 driver last weekend at Richmond and he finished 9th. This weekend, I have Elliott’s ceiling as a race win, and he should be able to cruise to a Top 5 result.
Elliott leads the field with a 10.2 average finish at Michigan. He has 13 starts with three Top 5s and 10 Top 10s. Elliott did crash out of this race last year, which is his only DNF at this track. It also snapped a streak of five straight Top 11 finishes.
I easily prefer Elliott over both Keselowski and Reddick this weekend. In fact, I have him slightly ahead of Blaney as well.
The Top FireKeepers Casino 400 Longshot
Daniel Suarez (+5000) is my top longshot choice for this weekend’s FireKeepers Casino 400. Although he currently sits 16th in the driver standings, Suarez is actually 11th in the Playoff Standings. This is largely due to his win at Atlanta in Week 2 of the season.
With that said, the #99 car has put together two consecutive Top 10 finishes on the season. He finished 8th at Indianapolis two races ago and 10th at Richmond last weekend. However, he did lead 93 laps in a race that went to OT.
Suarez finish 6th in this race last year and does have three Top 10 finishes in 11 starts. I think the #99 car can extend his Top 10 results to a third straight race with a solid run this weekend. And, with some luck or crashes to the contenders, Suarez could be in the winner’s circle.
The Best Top 5 Bet for the FireKeepers Casino 400
Kyle Larson (-110) is my choice for the best bet to finish in the Top 5 this Sunday at Michigan. Not only is he arguably the best driver in the Cup Series, but he’s also the best active driver at Michigan.
Larson has a 46.7% Top 5 finishing rate which is the best among drivers with at least three starts. He’s tallied three Top 5s in the last four races, including 5th last year in this race. His 10.9 average finish is third best among the field and he’s been one of the best drivers at two-mile tracks.
The Best Top 10 Bet for the FireKeepers Casino 400
Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Chase Elliott (-175), is my choice for the best bet to finish in the Top 10. As mentioned above, Elliott has the best average finish at this track with a 10.2. He also has a solid 10.3 average start.
His 76.9% Top 10 finishing rate is just staggering considering the caliber of drivers in the Cup Series. Additionally, he’s had five consecutive Top 11 finishes before crashing out of last year’s race. Elliott has 10 Top 10s in 13 Michigan starts. You have to love Elliott’s chances this weekend for a Top 10 result and a run at the checkered flag.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Driver H2H Matchups
For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup:
Denny Hamlin (-120) vs. Tyler Reddick (-110)
This might just be one of the easiest head-to-head prop bets we’re going to get all season. The funny thing is, Reddick could surprise us by finishing high on Sunday. Anything is possible. With that said, to make educated wagers, we must analyze the data. And, at Michigan, all the trends point to Hamlin being the superior driver.
Hamlin has 33 career starts at MIS compared to Reddick at 5 starts. So, if we just focus on the last five Michigan races for both drivers, Hamlin still crushes Reddick.
In the last five MIS starts, Hamlin has five Top 6 results; Reddick has five finishes of 18th or worse. Over that span, Reddick has 1 DNF and a 26.0 average finish. Hamlin has zero DNFs and a 3.8 average finish.
Elliott’s betting value and Hamlin, in this head-to-head matchup, are my favorite Michigan bets this weekend.
Bet: Denny Hamlin (-120)
NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag?
Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Time to make our prediction to win the FireKeepers Casino 400 race.
My Top 5 drivers this weekend are Larson, Hamlin, Logano, Elliott and one of Blaney, Keselowski or Martin Truex Jr. and his #19 car. In fact, Truex is under the radar this weekend with his +1000 odds.
Although he has not won at Michigan, Truex has 11 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and a 13.1 average finish in 33 starts at this track. Truex also has seven consecutive Top 10 finishes, which includes five Top 4s and a second-place result last year.
Elliott and Keselowski have never won at Michigan, so I’m going to bump them out of the winner’s circle along with Truex and Blaney. I think this race comes down to Hamlin, Logano, and Larson.
With that said, I still lean towards Larson and Hamlin on Sunday. And, as I mentioned near the beginning of this article, Larson was my choice before I even saw the FireKeepers Casino 400 odds. So, I’m sticking with my gut feeling. He’s the best active Cup Series driver at this track and is the top driver in the standings. It’s hard to argue against those two facts.
Bet: Kyle Larson (+550)
NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Prop Bets
The following NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:
Either To Win: Hamlin or Larson (+250)
As you can see from above, I have discussed Hamlin and Larson as my two favorite drivers this Sunday at Michigan. So, when I can get both of these drivers in a prop bet to win, it’s a no-brainer for me.
Larson and Hamlin have combined for five wins, 19 Top 5s, 27 Top 10s and are both in the Top 5 for average finish at Michigan. Furthermore, these two drivers are race favorites just about every single week. Lastly, I expect both to contend for the Cup Series Championship at the end of the season as well.
Bet: Either To Win: Hamlin or Larson (+250)
Either To Finish Top 3: Blaney or Elliott (-105)
I have both Elliott and Blaney finishing in my Top 5 this weekend. So, for one or both of them to crack the Top 3, is definitely doable in my mind. Blaney has a victory at this track and has finished in the Top 5 on five separate occasions. Elliott has the best Top 10 finishing rate at Michigan. At -105 odds, you are getting solid value here.
Bet: Either To Finish Top 3: Blaney or Elliott (-105)
Winning Manufacturer
- Toyota (+130)
- Chevrolet (+200)
- Ford (+220)
This is where things get tough. Ford is listed as the biggest longshot, but they have 44 victories at Michigan all-time, with 24 coming in this race. Chevy has 26 victories total, including 11 wins in this race. Toyota has five total Michigan wins with three in this race.
As much as I like Blaney and Logano this weekend, I’m not sure that Ford can outperform the Chevy or Toyota drivers this weekend. Additionally, I do believe that Toyota is overvalued here considering only Hamlin has won at this track.
I like Chevy for this prop bet. Yes, I have Larson winning but Elliott, Byron, Bowman and other Chevy drivers could also perform well this weekend.
Bet: Chevrolet (+200)
FireKeepers Casino 400 Group Winner
- Ryan Blaney (+175)
- Tyler Reddick (+200)
- Chase Elliott (+375)
- William Byron (+375)
I’ve already detailed Blaney, Reddick and Elliott above. William Byron is 7th in the driver standings and tied for second in the field with three race wins. At Michigan, he has just one Top 5 and two Top 10s, along with a 16.7 average finish. That puts him behind Elliott (10.2) and Blaney (14.1), but ahead of Reddick (26.0).
Blaney and Elliott are more than capable of winning this group bet along with winning the race. With that said, Elliott’s odds (+375) to finish higher at Michigan offer far greater value than Blaney at +175. Although I believe both men can finish in the Top 5 and flirt with a Top 3 finish, or checkered flag, I’m taking Elliott’s value in this prop bet over Blaney’s victory at Michigan.
Bet: Chase Elliott (+375)
Team of Race Winner
- Joe Gibbs Racing (+180)
- Hendrick Motorsports (+225)
- Team Penske (+375)
- 23XI Racing (+550)
- RFK Racing (+600)
- Trackhouse Racing (+2500)
- Richard Childress Racing (+3500)
- Stewart-Haas Racing (+4500)
The Top 3 teams in this prop bet, contain the odds-on favorites to win the race. Joe Gibbs Racing boasts of Hamlin, Bell and Truex. Hendrick features Larson, Elliott, Byron and Bowman. Team Penske features Logano and Blaney.
I’ve picked Larson to win the race. I’ve doubled down with the prop bet that Hamlin or Larson will win the race. I’ve also gone with the prop bet that Blaney or Elliott will finish in the Top 3.
So, we can keep with Hendrick for this prop bet or look for a hedge opportunity. Toyota doesn’t offer as great of value as Penske, but I think there are several drivers like Hamlin, Bell and Truex that can crash the Top 5 and possibly win this weekend.
Bet: Toyota (+180)
