2024 NASCAR USA TODAY 301 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, June 23, the NASCAR Cup Series will be live from the New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire, for the USA TODAY 301. This weekend’s event is the 18^th race of the year and marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. Including this event, there are nine more races until the Cup Series Playoffs begin and 18 more until the 2024 Cup Series Championship.

Over the first 17 races, there were 10 different drivers who took the checkered flag. Last weekend, Ryan Blaney outlasted numerous crashes, caution flags, and a hard-charging Christopher Bell to pick up his first victory of the season. Blaney and Bell are both tabbed as betting favorites for this weekend’s New Hampshire race.

Let’s take a look at the latest USA TODAY 301 odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s New Hampshire race.

USA TODAY 301 Race Profile

The New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been home to NASCAR Cup Series racing since 1993. Nicknamed “The Magic Mile,” this oval track has a distance of 1.05 miles per lap, 2-7 degrees banking in the turns, and 1 degree banking on the frontstretch and backstretch. Sunday’s USA TODAY 301 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 318.45 miles
• Total Laps: 301 laps
• Stage 1: 70 laps
• Stage 2: 115 laps
• Final Stage: 116 laps

The USA TODAY 301 is set to begin at 2:30 PM ET and will air live on USA Network.

Previous USA TODAY 301 Winners

The following is a list of the most recent Cup Series New Hampshire winners since 2018. Prior to then, the Cup Series ran two annual races at this track:

• 2023 Martin Truex Jr
• 2022 Christopher Bell    
• 2021 Aric Almirola
• 2020 Brad Keselowski
• 2019 Kevin Harvick
• 2018 Kevin Harvick

NASCAR USA TODAY 301 Betting Odds

Nascar USA TODAY 301 Betting Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the USA TODAY 301:

Christopher Bell +425

• Standings: 8^th
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Christopher Bell enters this weekend’s race as the betting favorite, although just a small difference between his odds and the veteran duo of Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

Bell was my choice to win the Iowa Corn 350 last weekend, but he ran out of laps before he could catch up to Ryan Blaney. The #20 car had some bad luck during the race with untimely cautions and lap traffic slowing him down on restarts. He clearly had the better car on long runs but just ran out of time.

Bell finished 4^th in Iowa last Sunday, which extended his streak to four straight races of finishing in the Top 10. He’s turned his season around since two straight crashes at Talladega and Dover a few months back. Since then, Bell has a 6.6 average finish.

At New Hampshire, Bell has put together a decent run in his Cup Series career. He has one win, two Top 5s, two Top 10s, and a 15.0 average finish. Bell won this race in 2022, but was spun out in last year’s race.

Phoenix and Richmond are comparable tracks in distance to New Hampshire. Bell won in Phoenix and finished 6^th at Richmond in March. These results bode well for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver in Sunday’s race.  

Martin Truex Jr. +450

• Standings: 5^th
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 7

The big news regarding Martin Truex Jr. is that the future HOF driver will retire from full-time racing at the end of the season. The long-time Joe Gibbs Racing driver currently sits 5^th in the standings, exactly where he was last week before the Iowa Corn 350. Truex finished 15^th in that race as he never really had the car to compete with drivers like Blaney, Bell and Kyle Larson.

Unfortunately, it was also Truex’s third straight finish of 15^th or worse and fourth in his last five races. In fact, the #19 car hasn’t cracked the Top 10 since Kansas, which was six races ago.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that Truex is the defending race winner at Loudon, where he won last year’s event. Furthermore, he also finished 7^th at Phoenix and 4^th at Richmond this season so far.

For his career, Truex has one win, nine Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and an 11.3 average finish at New Hampshire. That’s the third-best average finish among active drivers. His 98.0 driver rating at this track is the 4^th best. Even more impressive is that he’s run in the Top 15 for 69.3% of his laps raced at this track.

Truex has nine straight Top 12 finishes at New Hampshire, along with eight Top 7 results over that span. I like Truex’s chances of winning this weekend. He’s also a lock to finish in the Top 10 despite his recent poor stretch of races on the season.

Denny Hamlin +500   

• Standings: 3^rd
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

Denny Hamlin was racing well last weekend in Iowa before getting caught up in Larson’s wreck into the wall. Larson was spun out and he collected Hamlin in the mess. That incident resulted in a 24^th place finish for Hamlin which is his second straight finish of 24^th or worse. He blew an engine in Sonoma two races ago and finished 38^th. Prior to that, Hamlin had five straight Top 5 finishes including a victory at Dover.

Despite the bad luck last weekend, Hamlin remains third in the standings and is poised for a strong showing this weekend in Loudon.

Among active drivers, Hamlin has the best average finish (9.4) and top driver rating (103.6) in New Hampshire. In 30 starts, he’s tallied three wins, 11 Top 5s, and 19 Top 10s. The #11 car has 12 straight Top 15 finishes and five straight Top 10 results. His last New Hampshire victory came in 2017.

On the season, Hamlin won at Richmond and was 11^th in Phoenix. These results, along with Hamlin’s career success at New Hampshire, have me feeling confident in at least a Top 5 finish for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver this Sunday. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the JGR trio of Hamlin, Truex, and Bell all placed in the Top 5 for the USA TODAY 301.

Ryan Blaney +675

• Standings: 7^th
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 7

As mentioned above, Ryan Blaney won the Iowa Corn 350 last weekend. However, it was more so due to Larson and Hamlin wrecking than the #12 car being the best driver on the track. Nevertheless, the reigning Cup Series champ is now locked into the Playoffs with that victory.

For Blaney, the win catapulted him to 7^th in the standings after being 12^th for three weeks. April and May weren’t kind months to the defending champ. From April 15^th to June 4^th, Blaney had six finishes outside the Top 20 over a seven-race span.

With that said, it appears that he’s starting to turn things around. He will need the momentum from last week to carry over into New Hampshire, as the #12 car has barely been a Top 10 driver at this track.

In 11 starts at Loudon, Blaney has two Top 5s, four Top 10s, and a 13.6 average finish. He’s finished 18^th or worse in three of the last four New Hampshire races.

Last week, I was very critical of Blaney and his good fortunes slapped me right in the race. So, I’m not going to outright dismiss him from a small shot at the checkered flag this weekend. However, I do believe he will be fortunate to crack the Top 10 this Sunday, as New Hampshire hasn’t been one of the best tracks in his Cup Series career.

The Best USA TODAY 301 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the USA TODAY 301 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

Kyle Larson +700

• Standings: 2^nd
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

Any time you can get Kyle Larson at odds of +700 or higher, you have to consider that as solid betting value. Larson has been one of the best drivers all season long. And, if it weren’t for getting wrecked with about 100 laps remaining, the #5 car would’ve won the Iowa Corn 500.

He was clearly the car to beat last Sunday, as he had led the most laps up until he was wrecked. Larson’s 34^th finish in Iowa dropped him from first in the standings down to second. He was leapfrogged by fellow Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott.

Fortunately for Larson, he’s raced well in New Hampshire during his Cup Series career. Although he hasn’t won at this track as of yet, Larson does have five Top 5s, seven Top 10s and an 11.8 average finish which is fourth best among the field. The #5 car finished third last year and seventh in his 2021 Cup Series championship season. Furthermore, Larson was 14^th in Phoenix and 3^rd in Richmond this season.

You can pretty much count on Larson to be a Top 10 driver on a weekly basis. And, depending on his car, he is a threat to win at most tracks. Keep an eye out for the #5 car this weekend, as he could possibly pick up his first-ever Cup Series New Hampshire win.

Joey Logano +900

• Standings: 15^th
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

Joey Logan’s season hasn’t gone as well as he and his Penske team had hoped. He currently sits 15^th in the driver standings with just two Top 5s and five Top 10s in 17 starts. These are subpar numbers for the two-time Cup Series champ (2018, 2022).

Not to mention, zero wins on the year is a concern considering the #22 car has scored at least one race victory on the season from 2012 to 2023. He’s in danger of breaking that streak and finishing with his worst numbers since 2011.

So, you might be wondering why I have Logano as a value bet, considering he hasn’t performed well this season so far. In short, Logano is one of only a handful of active Cup Series drivers to have won at New Hampshire. In fact, he’s just one of four active drivers with two or more wins. Kyle Busch, Hamlin, and Brad Keslowski are the other three.

For his career, Logano has had two wins, nine Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, and a 14.1 average finish at Loudon. He’s in the Top 10 at New Hampshire for average finish and driver rating (85.3).

I expect Logano to find some of his past New Hampshire mojo and produce a solid result this weekend. Look for at least a Top 10 result with a potential Top 5 finish. Perhaps, he could even benefit from some crashes and cautions, just like his Penske teammate Blaney did last weekend.

Brad Keselowski +1600

• Standings: 9th
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 9

The former Team Penske driver, past teammate to both Logano and Blaney, Brad Keselowski has had a great deal of success at New Hampshire for his career. In 23 career starts at this track, Keselowski has two wins, 10 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, and a 9.8 average finish.

Furthermore, he’s second among active drivers with his average finish and driver rating (101.3). Keselowski has four straight Top 7 finishes and five straight Top 10 results at Loudon. He last won here in 2020.

In addition to his strong career at New Hampshire, Keselowski has been a consistent driver in 2024 so far. He sits 8^th in the standings and has six straight Top 13 finishes. The #6 car won at Darlington five races ago and finished 10^th in Iowa last weekend.

At +1600 odds, Keselowski provides solid betting value based on his strong career numbers at Loudon and a consistent season so far.

The Top USA TODAY 301 Longshot

Although there are divers with larger NASCAR odds, Kyle Busch (+3300) is my choice for the top longshot on Sunday. As mentioned above, only a handful of active drivers have a victory at Loudon, and Busch is one of them. In fact, he has three career victories at this track.

Additionally, Busch has 11 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, and a 14.9 average finish in New Hampshire. Typically, these numbers would put him higher with oddsmakers, but he’s barely hanging on to a Playoff spot on the season, and he has three DNFs in his last four Loudon starts.

Currently, Busch is 16^th in the standings and has two DNFs in the last three weeks. At Gateway, he crashed out. And, last weekend in Iowa, Busch had a busted water pump. Prior to that issue, he was running in the Top 10 and looked like a potential Top 5 car.

Because New Hampshire is a tough race for younger drivers, Busch has a chance this weekend. His experience and past success at Loudon give him an advantage over some of the up-and-coming stars of the Cup Series.

The Best Top 5 Bet for USA TODAY 301

Denny Hamlin is my choice for the best Top 5 bet at New Hampshire this weekend. Hamlin’s -110 odds, according to Bet365, give him near-even money for a wager. Hamlin leads all active drivers with 11 Top 5 finishes at Loudon for his career. He’s also tied for the lead with three wins.

In his last eight starts at New Hampshire, Hamlin has one win and three Top 5s. He also has a 6.6 average finish over that span. With the way he’s been running this season, the #11 car is a threat to win this race on Sunday, along with his JGR teammates.

The Best Top 10 Bet for USA TODAY 301

Not only is he my top longshot, but Kyle Busch is also my best Top 10 bet based on his career success at this track and his +190 odds. That’s tremendous value for a Top 10 finish by a driver who is tied with Denny Hamlin for the most wins and Top 5s at Loudon.

Busch has an average finish of 14.9 at New Hampshire with 16 Top 10s in 32 starts. That’s a 50% Top 10 finishing rate. He’s had three crashes in the last four Loudon races, which is why his odds are so high. As long as he doesn’t run into any trouble this weekend, Busch should be a sneaky Top 10 play.

USA TODAY 301 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup:

Chase Elliott (+130) vs. Denny Hamlin (-175)

The first head-to-head matchup for us to examine this weekend is a battle between two of the Top 3 drivers in the standings. Currently, Chase Elliott sits first, and Hamlin sits third in the driver standings. Elliott has a 39-point lead over Hamlin despite having fewer wins on the year.

With that said, Hamlin is the clear favorite in this H2H matchup, and rightfully so. Hamlin’s numbers are better than Elliott’s at New Hampshire.

In 10 starts, Elliott has zero wins, two Top 5s, three Top 10s, and a 14.4 average finish. Two of those Top 10 results have come in the last four races at Loudon. Hamlin has the best average finish (9.4) among active drivers at this track and five straight Top 10 results.

Take Hamlin to be a Top 5 car on Sunday and a potential race winner, while Elliott barely sneaks into the Top 10.

NASCAR Bet: Denny Hamlin (-175)

Ryan Blaney (-165) vs. Brad Keselowski (+125)

These former teammates are going head-to-head in this NASCAR prop bet, and I like the underdog in this matchup. As mentioned above, I learned my lesson in blindly dismissing Ryan Blaney. Although he had some luck in his win last weekend, Blaney still showed why he’s a Top 10 driver in the Cup Series.

With that said, Brad Keselowski is one of the best New Hampshire drivers in the field. He’s second in average finish (9.8) and driver rating (101.3) among active drivers. Blaney is seventh in average finish (13.6) and ninth in driver rating (89.0) at Loudon.

Blaney has finished outside of the Top 17 in three of his last four New Hampshire races. Keselowski has four consecutive finishes in the Top 7 and five straight in the Top 10.

Take the underdog and his juicy +125 odds.

NASCAR Bet: Brad Keselowski (+125)

Daniel Suarez (-125) vs. Todd Gilliland (-110)

Here’s a battle between two drivers that don’t get much attention on a weekly basis. Currently, Daniel Suarez sits 18^th in the standings, and Todd Gilliland is 20th. Some of you might look at their rankings and think there’s not much of a difference between the two drivers. Well, that couldn’t be further from the truth when it comes to this weekend’s event. There are two big reasons why.

First, Suarez might be 18^th in the standings, but he has a win on the year and is virtually guaranteed to make the Playoffs. Gilliland will need help to finish in the Top 16 or to win a race. Right now, I don’t see either happening.

Second, Suarez has performed better in New Hampshire than in Gilliland. In eight career starts at Loudon, Suarez has three Top 10s and a 15.8 average finish. Gilliland has two career starts and a 23.0 average finish. The #38 car’s best finish was last year when he placed 21^st. Suarez’s best result was 6^th in 2017. However, he was 16^th last year in this race.

Not only is Suarez having a better 2024 season than Gilliland, but he’s also a better driver at New Hampshire. Take the #99 car to win this H2H prop bet.

NASCAR Bet: Daniel Suarez (-125)

NASCAR USA TODAY 301 Predictions

This weekend, we’ll definitely see some rubbing and racing at The Magic Mile. I like all three Joe Gibbs Racing cars to perform well. I also expect some Top 10 results for drivers like Keselowski, Logano, Elliott, and Larson.

With that said, and I hate myself for doing this, but I’m taking Christopher Bell for the second week in a row. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamlin won or Truex dominated again. However, Bell has a solid resume at this track in all three NASCAR series.

I detailed Bell’s Cup Series results above, which includes a win in 2022 and a runner-up in 2021. However, Bell has also dominated Loudon in the Truck Series and Xfinity Series.

For his career, Bell had two Truck Series races at New Hampshire. He finished first and second in those events. As impressive as that is, Bell surpassed that mark with three wins in three starts at Loudon in the Xfinity series. That’s five victories at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in his career, spanning three levels of racing.

Last weekend, Bell was probably 10-20 laps away from winning the Iowa Corn 350. The misfortune of untimely cautions held him back from taking the checkered flag. This weekend, I see Bell getting a few lucky breaks to go his way as he outraces his JGR teammates to victory.

NASCAR Bet: Christopher Bell (+425)

USA TODAY 301 Prop Bets

The following prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings:

Group A Winner

• Martin Truex Jr. +240
• Denny Hamlin +240
• Christopher Bell +240
• Ryan Blaney +350

For these NASCAR group prop bets, you must pick which of the listed drivers will finish with the best result. Of the four, I think Ryan Blaney will have the worst result. Not because he’s inferior to the other drivers but because all three of the JGR drivers have had far more success at New Hampshire than Blaney.

I think Hamlin, Truex and Bell will all be contending for the checkered flag this weekend. They all can certainly finish in the Top 5; definitely the Top 10.

As for the winner of this prop bet, I like Bell. Just scroll up a few paragraphs and you will see why I think he wins this weekend’s event. Simply put, when it comes to New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Bell is a winner!

NASCAR Bet: Christopher Bell (+240)

Group B Winner

• Kyle Larson +170
• Joey Logano +220
• William Byron +330
• Chase Elliott +350

This group of drivers is a little bit easier to predict than the previous one. However, the NASCAR odds for this prop bet are a little bit off as I think they’re overvaluing William Byron too much. The #24 car has six starts at Loudon and zero Top 10 finishes. In fact, his 15.5 average finish is the lowest of the group.

Elliott has a 14.4 average finish along with two Top 5s and three Top 10s. Logano is the only one in this group with a Cup Series win at the track. He also has a 14.1 average finish. Larson has an 11.8 average finish along with five Top 5s, and seven Top 10s.

Logano offers betting value, but Larson has been the better driver this season. If it weren’t for getting wrecked at Iowa Corn 350 last weekend, Larson would’ve picked up his series-leading fourth win of the season. Although I see Bell winning this weekend, don’t count out Larson to crash the Joe Gibbs Racing party. As for this prop bet, take the #5 car.

NASCAR Bet: Kyle Larson (+170)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (-110)
• Ford (+220)
• Chevrolet (+275)

If you noticed, there’s a consistent theme throughout this USA TODAY 301 betting preview – Joe Gibbs Racing. All three of the veteran drivers for this team have won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In fact, they’ve combined for five Cup Series wins at Loudon including the last two races at this track.

Furthermore, Hamlin is tied with Kyle Busch for the most Cup Series wins at Loudon with three. Truex is the reigning race winner and Bell has won at this track in all three levels of NASCAR racing. Toyota is the clear-cut favorite for this Sunday’s race.

NASCAR Bet: Toyota (-110)

Race Winning Team

• Joe Gibbs Racing -120
• Hendrick Motorsports +320
• Team Penske +350
• RFK Racing +1100
• 23XI Racing +1400
• Stewart-Haas Racing +1600

I’ve made it perfectly clear in the above sections that Joe Gibbs Racing is taking the checkered flag for the USA TODAY 301 race on Sunday in New Hampshire. However, if you want an opportunity to hedge your bets from taking Toyota or Christopher Bell in the above wagers, then this is a great chance to look at Hendrick Motorsports or Team Penske in this Bet365 prop bet.

Team Penske features Blaney and Logano who are both among the favorites to win this race. Additionally, Logano has two victories at this track in his career. Hendrick Motorsports has three of the top four drivers in the standings with Elliott, Larson and Byron. However, none of them have won a Cup Series race at this track in their respective careers.

Between Hendrick and Penske, I would lean towards the former as Elliott, Larson and Byron are all a threat to win on most weeks. In fact, the three drivers have a combined seven wins in 17 races this season along with 20 Top 5s, 27 Top 10s, and 10 stage wins. So, take Hendrick for the hedge opportunity or go with the outright favorite in JGR.

NASCAR Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing -120