2024-25 NFL NFC South Odds and Predictions

The NFC South is projected to be the worst performing division in the conference, according to the so-called experts and the latest NFL odds.

Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the division and made a surprising appearance in the NFL Playoffs. This year, it’s the Atlanta Falcons who are the odds-on favorites to win the division for the first time since 2016.

The Falcons made a big move to sign QB Kirk Cousins in free agency. He’s expected to help lead this team back to the Playoffs and potentially make a run to the NFC Championship game. The Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints are expected to finish well behind Atlanta, but ahead of the Carolina Panthers. In fact, the Panthers have the longest Super Bowl 59 odds of any NFL team.

Let’s take a look at the latest NFC South odds, courtesy of the top online betting sites, and make our 2024-25 NFC South Division predictions.

NFC South Division

2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Preview

Did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win this division by default last season? If you’re a skeptic by nature, you would say yes. But truth be told, Tampa Bay took advantage of a late-season slump by the Atlanta Falcons by going on a surge, winning five of their last six and earning a home game in the Wild Card Round.

Then they outgained the Philadelphia Eagles by 150 yards in cruising to a 32-9 Playoff victory before losing at Detroit, in a game where they were deadlocked with the Lions entering the fourth quarter.

So, they have something to build on. But they will be working with their third different offensive coordinator in three seasons. Last year, it was Dave Canales, but he was scooped up by NFC South rival Carolina. This year, it’s Liam Coen, who we’ll speak about in a moment.

When Mayfield was signed, it was projected that he would battle Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback job in Tampa Bay. He had fallen out of favor in Cleveland (where he was Rookie of the Year in 2018) and was literally put on the scrap heap by the Panthers. So many credited Canales with rehabilitating him, as he had done with Geno Smith in Seattle.

Mayfield threw for 4044 yards and 28 touchdowns. And he signed a massive contract in the off-season – with $50 million guaranteed out of a possible $100 million. That’s quite a comeback.

Most people are familiar with the fact that he has a dynamite pair of wide receivers in Mike Evans (1255 yards last year) and Chris Godwin (1024). The objective is for Mayfield to be better protected. Of the 54 sacks the team gave up last year, 32 of them came up the middle. So, a first-round pick was spent on Duke’s Graham Barton, who will be moved inside to center. 

This team had very little success running the football last season. Let’s face it – the Buccaneers did not have a rushing “culture” under Brady’s leadership, and they ranked 31^st out of the 32 NFL teams in rushing yards in 2023.

Tampa Bay ranked 20th in total defense last season, and so Bowles, who lost two-time Pro Bowl linebacker Shaq Barrett to the Miami Dolphins, has to build things back up. They drafted Chris Braswell of Alabama in the second round, and this is a linebacker of incredible athleticism. Randy Gregory also comes aboard as a pass rusher. They hope Georgia CB Tykee Smith helps in the secondary. All told they are a contender in a division where no one looks like they have gotten too far ahead.

2024-25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total

• Over 7.5 (-150)
• Under 7.5 (+120)

The entire NFC South division can be found at the bottom of the league when it comes to the strength of schedule. The Falcons and Saints are dead last with the easiest schedule (.453), but the Buccaneers are 27^th (.478) and the Panthers are tied for 29^th (.467).

Let’s face it, this division isn’t as good as others in the NFC, especially the NFC North. With that said, Tampa Bay might surprise critics and doubters. Sure, they have some glaring weaknesses. But that didn’t stop them last year.

Week 11 Bye is like an early Christmas present as it gives the team some much needed rest late in the year. But I really like the Bucs’ chances to finish the season strong and potentially snag another NFC South title.

Following their Bye Week, the Bucs play the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, Panthers and Saints. That’s three divisional games, three easy non-division opponents, and the Cowboys. Could we see Tampa Bay close out the season with a 6-1 stretch? Even if they go 4-3, that means they will have to win just four of the first 10 games to hit this Over.

Looking at the early slate, the Bucs could beat the Commanders, Broncos, Falcons twice, and Saints. Even if they split against the Falcons, that still gives them eight wins on the season. I think they can flirt with 10 wins, but I see this as an easy eight-win season. Go with the Over.

Bet: Over 7.5 wins (-150)

2024-25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+200)
• 3 Wins (+200)
• 1 Win (+375)
• 4 Wins (+400)
• 0 Wins (+1400)
• 5 Wins (+1600)

The Bucs open the season at home against the Commanders before heading to Detroit. They will return home for two games against the Broncos and Eagles, before a divisional matchup at Atlanta. At best, this is a 3-2 stretch and that’s only if they can win at Atlanta in Week 5. To me, that’s a toss-up as it depends how well the Falcons play early in the season. Atlanta could take some time to gel and for Cousins to be at full strength. Yes, I just convinced myself to go with three wins.

Bet: 3 Wins (+200)

Will The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+140)
• No (-170)

Unlike the NFC East, the South will not have two teams make the Playoffs. Only the division winner is playing in the postseason. I’m a bit surprised at how high the odds are for Tampa Bay to miss the Playoffs. It’s not like the Falcons are going to be an NFC contender. With that said, let’s play this prop bet safe and take the No option.

Bet: No (-170)

2024 New Orleans Saints Season Preview

The New Orleans Saints still have Dennis Allen around as the head coach. Maybe that was a surprise to some people. He brought the team home with four wins in its last five games, but they lost a tie-breaker to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and missed out on the postseason.

And, Allen is somewhat redeemed by the fact that he produced a relatively effective stop unit as the play-caller on defense. New Orleans intercepted 18 passes but allowed just 22 touchdowns through the air.

They also yielded only 34.5% on third down conversions, which was fourth best in the NFL. It might improve if Chase Young, a free agent signee from whom superstardom was once forecast in Washington, can rebound from neck surgery. He had 8.5 sacks last season, the same as New Orleans’ leader, Carl Granderson.

Derek Carr presents something of a quandary. Carr produces the numbers; there is no doubt about it.  He had a nifty TD-INT ratio of 25-to-8 last year.  In five of the last six seasons, he has completed at least 67% of his passes; he has over 39,000 yards for his career. He’s made it to four Pro Bowls. He doesn’t get sacked very much. Yet he has played in only one postseason game for his career.

Oh, we’re sure he’ll put up some numbers again. Carr has a very capable receiver in Chris Olave (87 catches for 1123 yards), and a guy who could step up and make an impact in Rashid Shaheed, who averaged 15.6 yards per reception in 2023, and was named an All-Pro as a kick returner.

How much mileage does Alvin Kamara have left in him?  For his 2023 season, Kamara did have 1160 all-purpose yards from scrimmage. But he had just seven official broken tackles all season and an average of 1.6 yards after contact, which barely got him into the league’s top 40.

A transition on the offensive line is imminent. Ryan Ramczyk has been a mainstay up front, but who knows how much he can do and when he’s going to be able to do it as he navigates through knee issues.  With their first-round draft pick, the Saints took Taliese Fuaga, an offensive tackle from Oregon State, who they will put somewhere, but we’re not certain where just yet.

If the Saints can step up on a couple of fronts, the division could be theirs to take.

2024-25 New Orleans Saints Win Total

• Over 7.5 (-130)
• Under 7.5 (+100)

Like with the Buccaneers, the Saints have an Over/Under of 7.5 wins. For a team that finished 9-8 last year, and a tiebreaker away from the postseason, I’m a bit surprised at this O/U. As mentioned above, the Saints have the easiest schedule (.453) in the National Football League.

They also have a Week 12 Bye, which is the perfect gift for a late-season resurgence. Following the Bye, the Saints play the Rams, Giants, Commanders, Packers, Raiders and Bucs. They could easily go 4-2 over that final stretch. But, can they win four games prior to the Bye?

Saints will lose to the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, and Browns. That’s the bad news. However, the good news is that they have five divisional games, the Chargers and Broncos. I can see a 4-3 record in that stretch. It’s not going to be easy, but the Saints should finish close to the same 9-8 mark from last year and go over 7.5 wins.

Bet: Over 7.5 (-130)

2024-25 New Orleans Saints Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+175)
• 1 Win (+225)
• 3 Wins (+250)
• 0 Wins (+800)
• 4 Wins (+800)
• 5 Wins (+3300)

New Orleans opens the season with games against the Panthers and Eagles at home. However, they also play road games at Dallas, Atlanta and Kansas City. At best, the Saints go 3-2 in their first five games. More than likely, this team is sitting 2-3 before a five-game stretch that could vault them to the top of the division: Bucs, Broncos, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons.

Bet: 2 Wins (+175)

Will The New Orleans Saints Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+170)
• No (-220)

The reality is that the Saints don’t have the firepower on the offensive side of the ball to beat true Playoff contenders. Additionally, they have an average defense that doesn’t instill confidence in bettors looking for value in the NFC South division.

New Orleans will be competitive as the entire division beats each other up. Unfortunately, that won’t be enough for the Saints to make the postseason.

Bet: No (-220)

2024 Atlanta Falcons Season Preview

Of all the teams in this division, the one that made the biggest headlines was the Atlanta Falcons. The “Dirty Birds” made a coaching change, replacing Arthur Smith with Raheem Morris, and then opened up the wallet and signed QB Kirk Cousins to a free agent contract.

Cousins comes with a warning label, as he has not played football since October 2023, which is when he injured his Achilles. But he is a proven commodity as far as production is concerned. And what he needs are some people to throw to.

Drake London (69 catches, 905 yards) goes into the season as the #1 receiver. The Falcons made some moves to beef up things at the wide receiver position, acquiring Rondale Moore, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Darnell Mooney. But those guys are not a bunch of killers. Can anyone unleash what tight end Kyle Pitts has to offer?

One personnel move that was highly controversial involved the Falcons’ first-round draft pick, Michael Penix Jr., who was expected by most people to go in Round 1 but later in the round and to someone else. So, the question was why they would commit so much money to a veteran QB and then make another quarterback their first choice. But the Falcons worked out Penix and loved him, and Cousins may not go the whole length of his deal.

There were questions about last year’s #1 pick, too. That is because the Falcons went after Texas running back Bijan Robinson, even though Tyler Allgeier had just come off a rookie season where he topped 1000 yards. However, as a rookie, Robinson had 976 yards and 4.6 yards a carry, while Allgeier dropped to a 3.7-yard average.

The Falcons featured a two-headed ground attack that finished as one of the top rushing teams in the NFL last season. But that was under head coach Arthur Smith, who was a guy that loved the ground-and-pound. Zac Robinson comes over from the Rams to be the new offensive coordinator, which means the offense will look very different this season.

The Falcons will run with a single back alignment, using three wide receivers more than they did under Smith. They will almost certainly pass a lot more. Last season, they had the fourth-highest percentage of rushing plays in the NFL (48%). But in Cousins’ last full season in Minnesota (2022), the Vikings were #3 in the league in passing play percentage.

Defensively, the Falcons finished in the league’s Top 10 in several categories last year, including yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and yards per rush allowed. If the offense really clicks under Cousins and the new offensive coordinator, this team could live up to their lofty expectations and the off-season hype.

2024-25 Atlanta Falcons Win Total

• Over 9.5 (-150)
• Under 9.5 (+120)

Of all the teams in the NFC South Division, the Falcons are the only one with an O/U close to double-digit wins. Currently, oddsmakers favor this team to win more than 9.5 games, which would be an improvement over their 7-10 mark from the 2023-24 season.

Like the Saints, the Falcons also have a Week 12 Bye. However, unlike New Orleans, this late-season Bye should actually help Atlanta make a push for the postseason.

Following the Bye, Atlanta plays the Chargers, Vikings, Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers. If Kirk Cousins is healthy, this team could finish the year 6-0. Worst case scenario is a 5-1 mark.

As long as Atlanta can go at least 5-6 in their first 11 games, this team should hit the Over and fight for the top spot in the division. Games against the Bucs twice, Saints twice, Panthers, and Seahawks could be enough to snag five victories before the Bye Week. For this prop bet, take the Over.

Bet: Over 9.5 (-150)

2024-25 Atlanta Falcons Record After 5 Games

• 3 Wins (+190)
• 2 Wins (+200)
• 1 Win (+400)
• 4 Wins (+400)
• 5 Wins (+1400)
• 0 Wins (+1600)

The first five games are going to be tough for the Falcons. They face the AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. That could easily be a 1-4 start to the season. With that said, even if they get off to a slow start, the second half of the season is very winnable for Atlanta. As for this prop bet, let’s play it safe and pick two wins.

Bet: 2 Wins (+200)

Will The Atlanta Falcons Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (-240)
• No (+190)

As you can see, the odds heavily favor Atlanta making the postseason. With 10 victories, that should be good enough for the NFC South title unless Tampa Bay makes a run at it. There’s no value with the “Yes” option, but it is the right choice.

Bet: Yes (-240)

2024 Carolina Panthers Season Preview

Much of the blame for the ongoing failure of the Carolina Panthers has been placed at the feet of owner David Tepper. The media culture is always contemptuous of owners who “meddle” too much, and Tepper has become their whipping boy. And, it’s not without merit.

Since Tepper acquired the franchise, there have been six head coaches in six seasons. Last year, Frank Reich lost ten of eleven games, after which assistant coach Chris Tabor took over and lost five of six.

And now we have another guy on the scene. Dave Canales has gained a reputation as someone who can work with quarterback “projects.” He helped bring Geno Smith back to life in Seattle, and last season he helped guide Baker Mayfield to over 4000 yards, a Pro Bowl berth and a Comeback of the Year award in Tampa Bay.

The rumor was that Tepper insisted on drafting Bryce Young with the #1 overall pick, while some of his executives, not to mention Reich, wanted to go another way. Of course, the situation became aggravated with the smashing success of CJ Stroud (the #2 pick), coupled with Young’s lack of any success.

There may be multiple factors involved. But there is no way to spin the fact that Young’s numbers were terrible. He threw just 11 TD passes with 10 interceptions. He averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt. He had the worst Bad Throw Percentage in the NFL. The Panthers averaged 11.3 points over their last eleven games and tallied just 20 touchdowns from scrimmage.

Let’s see what Canales can do for him. The team tried to get him some help. They acquired wide receiver Diontae Johnson, drafted WR Xavier Legette out of South Carolina, and got two new replacements for what was a horrible offensive line.

This may be a work in progress for a few seasons. But what helps it along is that Carolina has the makings of a defense that is more than presentable. They finished third-best in the NFL in passing yards allowed and yielded more than 322 total yards in only one of their last eleven games.

2024-25 Carolina Panthers Win Total

• Over 5.5 (-130)
• Under 5.5 (+100)

Let’s just get this out in the open right now – the Panthers will be the worst team in the NFL this year. And, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were looking for a new franchise quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft. Looking over their schedule, I don’t see where this team is winning five games.

Despite having the 29^th toughest schedule (.467), I don’t see one game where this team will be favored. The Broncos, Commanders, Giants, Cardinals and Raiders are the “easiest” games on their schedule. Maybe they can win one game in the division like last year. Even with that said, do you honestly think this team wins six games after going 2-15 last season? I definitely do not.

The Panthers are on the clock and should be turning their attention toward the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Take the Under and the attractive even money.

Bet: Under 5.5 (+100)

2024-25 Carolina Panthers Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+170)
• 1 Win (+180)
• 3 Wins (+350)
• 0 Wins (+600)
• 4 Wins (+1000)
• 5 Wins (+4000)

One of two things are going to happen this year for Carolina, either they come out hot and shock the league or they come out playing like the Bad News Bears, which is what everyone expects. I’m picking the latter.

Carolina’s first five games are against the Saints, two against the AFC West Chargers and Raiders, the AFC North’s Bengals and Bears. Three of those games are on the road. If you are keeping track at home, the Panthers went 0-9 on the road last season. Does anyone think they’re going to win more than one road game this year? I certainly do not.

Their best hope for a win over the first five weeks is a home game against the Chargers in Week 2. Otherwise, they’re losing at the Saints, Raiders and Bears. The other home game in the first five weeks will be a loss to the Bengals. At best, this team gets one victory. More than likely, they go 0-5 to start off the year.

Bet: 0 Wins (+600)

Will The Carolina Panthers Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+550)
• No (-900)

The Panthers are the biggest longshot to make the Playoffs in the NFC. Honestly, I’m surprised that these odds aren’t higher. This team is at least a year away from being .500, let alone a Playoff contender.

The goal for the 2024-25 season should be to develop Young further and build up the trenches. If they can do that, then the 2025-26 season could see the roar restored in Carolina.

Bet: No (-900)

NFC South Division Odds

• Atlanta Falcons -120
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +300
• New Orleans Saints +350
• Carolina Panthers +1100

The Panthers have no shot at their sixth NFC South title. The last time they were division champs was in 2015, when Cam Newton led the charge. Young is no Newton, and this team is no winner. The Saints have the most division titles since the 2002 NFL realignment, with seven. Their last one came in 2020 when Drew Brees was still around. Carr is no Brees, and this team is no Playoff contender.

In all likelihood, this division comes down to the Bucs and the Falcons. I think Tampa Bay is worth a flier for those of you that like to take risks. For everyone else, take the sensible approach and bet on Atlanta to claim their 5^th NFC South title, and first since 2016. With that said, it’s going to be a tough day for whomever wins this division, because both the Eagles and the NFC West 49ers are far superior than the South’s teams.

Bet: Atlanta Falcons -120

NFC South Exact Order Of The Division

It should come as no surprise that the Panthers are the odds-on favorites to finish last in the NFC South. They’re the worst team in the NFC, just like the AFC East’s Patriots are the worst in the American Football Conference. The battle for third will be won the by the Saints as I think the Bucs’ offense has more to offer. With that said, Atlanta’s schedule should give them enough wins to edge out Tampa Bay for the NFC South title.

Bet: Falcons 1st (-125), Buccaneers 2nd (+190), Saints 3rd (+160), Panthers 4th (-270)

NFC South Division Top 2 Finishing Position

• Atlanta Falcons & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110)
• Atlanta Falcons & New Orleans Saints (+155)
• New Orleans Saints & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600)
• Atlanta Falcons & Carolina Panthers (+700)
• Carolina Panthers & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2000)
• Carolina Panthers & New Orleans Saints (+2800)

As I’ve stated multiple times above, this division will come down to the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fortunately for this NFL prop bet, we’re picking which two teams will finish in the Top 2 for the NFC South.

Take the favored option of Falcons and Bucs as they should finish first and second in the division by time it’s all said and done.

Bet: Atlanta Falcons & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110)