2024 NFL Coaching Carousel: Which Head Coach Will Be Fired First?

The NFL coaching carousel refers to the comings and goings of head coaches in the league. Typically, it’s due to head coaches being fired for not meeting the expectations of the front office or the owner. Last year, we saw eight coaches get axed during and after the season. This year, there are plenty of names already on the proverbial hot seat.

New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen is the betting favorite to get fired first. However, there are plenty of big names on the list like Mike McCarthy that aren’t far behind Allen on the boards.

In addition to this NFL coaches prop bet, most sportsbooks also release a futures bet on which head coaches will be fired on Black Monday. This prop usually comes out during the second half of the season, which is often after one head coach has already been fired. So, we’ll examine both of these scenarios below.

Let’s take a deeper dive into this NFL coaching prop bet, courtesy of the sports betting sites, and make our predictions on which NFL head coach will get fired first and which ones could see their pink slips on Black Monday.

NFL Coaches Fired 2023

The 2023-24 NFL season was brutal for eight different teams as they all fired their head coaches either during or after the season. These firings didn’t discriminate either, as there were some Hall of Fame coaches sent to the unemployment line:

• Bill Belichick: fired after the season ended, following 24 seasons as coach of the Patriots.
• Pete Carroll: fired two days after Black Monday, following 14 seasons has Seattle’s coach
• Mike Vrabel: fired the day after Black Monday, following 6 seasons as coach of the Titans
• Ron Rivera: fired on Black Monday, following four seasons as Washington’s coach
• Arthur Smith: fired as soon as it turned Black Monday, following 3 seasons as Atlanta’s coach
• Frank Reich: fired after starting season 1-10
• Brandon Staley: fired in Week 15 after a 5-9 start
• Josh McDaniels: fired right after Halloween, following a 3-5 start

NFL Coach Fired Odds

Favorites To Be Fired First

The following coaches are odds-on favorites to be fired first:

Dennis Allen (+275)

New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen is the odds-on favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired during the 2024-25 NFL league year. So, it could be during the season or on Black Monday.

Allen is currently in his third season as the Saints head coach. He has a 16-18 record as the Saints leader but the pressure is on his shoulders this year.

In 2022, after former coach Sean Payton stepped down, Allen was promoted to the top spot. In his first year, the Saints wend 7-10 and finished 3^rd in the NFC South. It was a big transition year as many changes were made, along with not really having a franchise quarterback.

The latter part changed last year when the Saints signed Derek Carr to be their signal caller. Carr helped lead the Saints to a 9-8 record and 2^nd in the NFC South. Unfortunately, New Orleans missed the Playoffs for a second season under Allen.

For Allen, this Saints coaching job is the second time he has been a head coach in the league. The first came with the Oakland Raiders from 2012 to 2014. Allen was fired in 2014, after starting the season 0-4. His first two seasons as the Raiders coach saw identical 4-12 records.

For his career, Allen is 24-46 as a head coach, which is a putrid .343 winning percentage. Making matters worse for the head coach, is the fact that New Orleans isn’t expected to win the NFC South or make the Playoffs this year.

If the Saints get off to a slow start, Allen is probably gone by Thanksgiving. However, if they can remain competitive all season and come up short, just like last year, then Allen could get axed on Black Monday.

Mike McCarthy (+600)

Unlike Dennis Allen, Mike McCarthy has been a highly successful head coach in the league. McCarthy is a former NFL Coach of the Year along with being a Super Bowl champion during his tenure as the head coach for the Green Bay Packers.

McCarthy was fired during his 13^th season as the Packers head coach. He compiled a 4-7-1 record in 2018, before getting axed. However, during his overall tenure, McCarthy went 125-77-2 as Green Bay’s head coach during the regular season. He was 10-8 in the postseason. In addition to the Super Bowl win, he was 1-2 in NFC Championship games.

McCarthy sat out the 2019 season before being hired by Jerry Jones to coach the Dallas Cowboys in 2020. He got off to a slow start with a 6-10 season. It prompted criticism from the fans and pundits, which called for his firing.

Jones stuck with McCarthy and the coach has rewarded Dallas’ owner with three consecutive 12-5 seasons. Two of those years, including last season, the Cowboys won the NFC East division. Unfortunately, Dallas is just 1-3 in the postseason under McCarthy, which greatly overshadows his solid 42-25 record for the regular season.

If the Cowboys aren’t competing for Super Bowls, then any head coach will be on the hot seat. McCarthy’s seat has been warming up each year that Dallas fails to even make it to the NFC Championship game.

Coming into the 2024-25 NFL season, the reality for McCarthy is that this team needs to be a Super Bowl contender or he will get fired. If the team goes winless during the first four to six weeks, McCarthy will get fired. Fortunately for Dallas, this team is loaded with talent especially after signing CeeDee Lamb to a huge contract.

If McCarthy were to get fired, it wouldn’t be until after another failed Playoff run, which is at least a week after Black Monday.

Todd Bowles (+800)

Todd Bowles is entering his third year as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach after taking over for his friend Bruce Arians in 2022. The first season, which was Tom Brady’s final year in the NFL, saw Tampa Bay go 8-9 but win the NFC South division and make the Playoffs.

Unfortunately, the Bucs lost to the Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card round. Brady retired and it sent the Bucs into a transitional phase. However, Bowles kept the ship heading in the right direction. Along with a resurging Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Tampa was able to go 9-8 and win the NFC South for a second straight season under Bowles.

This time, the Bucs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round before losing to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional round.

Following two seasons as the Bucs head coach, Bowles is 17-17 during the regular season and 1-2 in the postseason.

Prior to the Bucs head coaching job, and in between Defensive Coordinator roles, Bowles was the head coach for the New York Jets from 2015-2018. He compiled a 24-40 record with the Jets and never made the postseason. Although, that was more so due to a lack of talent and not his coaching skills.

Bowles was fired after the 2018-19 season concluded. Will he see the same fate following the 2024-25 NFL season?

This year, the Bucs are aiming to win the division once again, and make it to the Playoffs for a third straight season. However, they lost several key players on the defense and might not be as lucky to squeak into the postseason this year as the Atlanta Falcons are favored to win the division.

Brian Daboll (+900)

After doing a brilliant job as the Offensive Coordinator for the Buffalo Bills, Brian Daboll was hired by the New York Giants in 2022. His first season with the Giants, the team went 9-7-1 and made the Playoffs. They scored a victory in the Wild Card round, but lost to divisional rival the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional round.

The 2023-24 season was a huge letdown for the Giants as the team finished 6-11. They lost franchise QB Daniel Jones to an injury and saw a revolving door at the QB position throughout the year.

Despite keeping the team motivated, the Giants went into the offseason with numerous holes to fill and a high draft pick. However, New York lost their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley as the running back left the team to sign with the Eagles. Additionally, the Giants are doubling down on Jones to be their QB.

Currently, Daboll is 15-18-1 during the regular season and 1-1 in the postseason. This is his first NFL head coaching job.  

The Giants are expected to finish with one of the worst records in the NFL. Not to mention, Jones doesn’t inspire confidence in the fans and probably his teammates. Also, the offensive line has question marks, there’s no real threat out of the backfield, and the team’s best receiver is a rookie.

There are so many potential pitfalls for the Giants this season. With two subpar years, Daboll could easily see his seat get hotter as the year progresses and a potential firing during the season or on Black Monday could be in the cards.

Best Betting Value To Get Fired First

Doug Pederson (+1600) offers some decent value for this prop bet. The former Head Coach of the Year, and Super Bowl LII winner for the Philadelphia Eagles, enters his third season as the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach. The first two years have seen mediocre results as the team has gone 9-8 each season.

In 2022, the Jags made it all the way to the AFC Divisional round before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champs, Kansas City Chiefs. Last year, the Jags finished with the same record but didn’t even qualify for the postseason.

This year, the Jags gave franchise QB Trevor Lawrence a ton of money. They also invested a first-round pick in a wide receiver along with adding more offensive players through free agency.

Pederson is known for being a brilliant offensive mind, but this Jacksonville offense hasn’t been the juggernaut that we saw in Philly. In fact, last season saw the Jaguars offense look inferior.

Jacksonville is not expected to win the AFC South this year as that title is Houston’s to lose. And, the Jags aren’t favored to make the postseason either. So, Pederson is already facing an uphill battle.

Although Pederson has an 18-16 regular season record with the Jags, along with a 42-37-1 record as Philly’s head coach, he’s definitely on the hot seat this season. If the Jaguars fail to make the Playoffs or waste another year of Lawrence’s prime on mediocrity, then Pederson could be out by Black Monday if not sooner.

The Best Longshot To Be Fired First

Kevin O’Connell (+2500) is a talented young coach, which the league has been known to place a high value on. However, things have gone downhill fast for O’Connell after a promising rookie season as the head coach for the Minnesota Vikings.

In 2022, the Vikings went 13-4 and made the Playoffs. Unfortunately, they lost in the Wild Card round to the underdog New York Giants. That was strike one against O’Connell because Minnesota was considered a real contender in the NFC that year.

Last season, the Vikings finished 7-10 despite losing franchise QB Kirk Cousins to an injury. They also saw star wide receiver Justin Jefferson and star tight end TJ Hockenson both miss time due to injuries. With that said, O’Connell got a second strike for not getting more out of this offense despite the injuries. There was virtually zero running game and the offensive line was porous.

This offseason, Minnesota saw Cousins leave via free agency. They also saw talented defenders leave as well. Then, the team drafted J.J. McCarthy to be their future QB but he suffered a knee injury in the preseason and will be out for the year. Additionally, Hockenson will miss at least the first month as he still recovers from injury.

Free agent signing, Sam Darnold, will be the starting QB for the Vikings. That’s worse than Daniel Jones for the Giants. Additionally, the defense has taken a step back along with an offense that’s missing key leadership at the QB and TE positions. 29-year-old Aaron Jones is expected to lead the rushing attack, but there are concerns there as well.

Although O’Connell is 20-14 as a head coach, the team is expected to be one of the worst in the league. With a poor record, the front office could look for a fresh start at any point before next year. If for some reason the Vikings players quit on O’Connell after an ugly start to the season, that fresh start for the team could come during the season.

Which NFL Coach Will Be Fired First?

There are solid arguments for all of the head coaches listed above. With that said, this prop bet is about which coach will be fired first. And, for that to happen, it will most likely require an in-season firing.

Last year, there were three coaches fired during the regular season. The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels by November 1^st. This year, I can see the first coach getting fired by that point as well. And, in my mind, that coach is Brian Daboll.

Other than their Week 1 game against the Vikings, the Giants could easily start the season 0-8 or 1-7 if they beat Minnesota. That would put them in Week 9 with the worst record in the league and just before their November 3^rd game against the Washington Commanders.

New York’s offense is going to be awful. Jones is not the QB that this team should be relying on. The running game will take a big step back with Barkley gone. And, the offensive line could be one of the worst units in the league. Even if this unit plays better, teams don’t need to stack the box to stop the run, which means they can easily pressure Jones or shut down any passing game.

Allen and McCarthy are good candidates for getting fired, but they won’t get fired before Daboll does. At +900 odds, we’re getting great value for the head coach of a team that could finish with a Top 5 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Bet: Brian Daboll (+900)

NFL Black Monday

The origin of Black Monday began in the 1990s after The Chicago Tribune mentioned this term in association with College Football coaches getting fired. By the late 1990s, many of the major media outlets were using this term to describe the NFL firings following the end of the season.

Typically, the last NFL game is played on Sunday night. Following that game, teams that don’t make the Playoffs are looking towards building for the offseason, which may include firing their head coach.

What Is NFL Black Monday?

NFL Black Monday refers to the Monday right after the conclusion of the regular season. It’s often when teams fire head coaches, coordinators or GMs for disappointing seasons. Since 18 teams don’t make the Playoffs, there’s a higher chance that coaches get fired on this day than during the regular season.

Black Monday 2024

Since the NFL moved to an 18-week regular season, Black Monday is now pushed back into January of the following calendar year. So, the 2023-24 regular season ended on Sunday, January 7^th. This meant that Black Monday fell on January 8^th.

And, true to form, the axe fell on multiple coaches this Black Monday as Atlanta fired Arthur Smith early that morning. Smith finished his three-year tenure with the Falcons going 21-30 and never making the Playoffs. In fact, he finished with a 7-10 record each of his three seasons.

The Washington Commanders would fire Ron Rivera later that day, after four years as their head coach. Rivera finished 26-40-1 with four years of non-winning football. The Commanders did finish 7-9 in 2020 and won the NFC East division, but they lost in the Wild Card round to Brady and the Bucs. Prior to that, Rivera went 76-63-1 with Carolina during the regular season and 3-4 in the postseason. He led the Panthers to a Super Bowl loss against the Broncos in SB 50.

Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel had intense discussions all Black Monday and had one foot out the door. However, his official release didn’t take place until the next day. Yet, he was pretty much gone on that Monday.

Future HOF coach Pete Carroll almost survived the firing squad. Unfortunately, differences between Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks front office weren’t able to be resolved and the 72-year-old coach was let go two days after Black Monday.

On January 11th, 2024, the greatest NFL head coach of all-time, Bill Belichick agreed with the New England Patriots to part ways. That’s a nice way to say that the team was going to fire him. Belichick finished his 24-year tenure with the Patriots sporting a 266-121-0 record with 6 Super Bowl wins and a 30-12 Playoff mark. He also won 17 AFC East titles including 11 in a row from 2009-2019.

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Frank Reich, Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels were all released during the season. The Panthers didn’t even give Reich a full first year as head coach. They fired him after Week 11 due to the team getting off to a 1-10 start. Brandon Staley lasted under three seasons as the Los Angeles Chargers fired him after Week 15 due to a 5-9 start and one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history. The Raiders destroyed the Chargers on Thursday Night Football by the score of 63-21.

Last year, Josh McDaniels was the first coach to get fired. So, if you were betting on this prop bet for the 2023-24 NFL season, you would’ve won if you wagered on McDaniels. The Raiders axed him after Week 8 due to Las Vegas starting the season 3-5. McDaniels finished with a 9-16 mark and a roster full of players that celebrated his departure from the organization.

Black Monday 2023

On January 8, 2023, Black Monday saw Kliff Kingsbury as the lone head coach to get fired on this day. The Arizona Cardinals decided to part ways with the once highly regarded coach.

That year, Houston fired Lovie Smith a few hours prior to the start of Black Monday. Additionally, three coaches were fired during the season:

On October 10, 2022, the Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start to the season.

The day after Christmas, the Denver Broncos didn’t even want to wait until Black Monday to fire Nathaniel Hackett. The team was 4-11 and most of the players had quit on the coach months prior. At least they let Hackett celebrate the holiday still employed!

Following five seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich was bounced after Week 9 due to a 3-5-1 start to the season. Ironically, Reich was fired after a 1-10 start to the 2023-24 season with the Panthers. It’s a dubious honor to be fired two years in a row during the season.

Black Monday 2022

The conclusion of the 2021-22 season came to an end on January 9^th, which put Black Monday on January 10^th. The Denver Broncos didn’t even wait until Black Monday to fire Vic Fangio. After three seasons, and a 19-30 record, the Broncos fired him on the Sunday before, since the team played on Saturday, January 8^th.

Following eight years as the head coach of the Vikings, Mike Zimmer was fired due to another losing season with an 8-9 record. He finished his tenure with a 72-56-1 regular season mark along with a 2-3 postseason record.

The Chicago Bears put fans out of their misery by finally firing Matt Nagy after his fourth season as the head coach. Nagy finished with a 34-31 record. However, he had three consecutive seasons of 8-8 or worse to close out his tenure.

The biggest surprise on the 2022 Black Monday, was Brian Flores getting fired by the Miami Dolphins. Although Flores didn’t make the Playoffs during his three years as the head coach, he did have two consecutive winning seasons before being let go. Flores finished with a 24-25 record with the Dolphins. However, that record is misleading as he went 19-14 over his final two years.

The New York Giants waited an extra day before firing Joe Judge after two seasons at the helm. Judge was 10-23 over those two years, so it’s unclear if the team wanted Judge to have his own day of facing the firing squad or if Judge nearly bribed or blackmailed the front office for a third year as the coach.

A few days following Black Monday, the Houston Texans fired David Culley after just one season. The team finished 4-13. It’s still a mystery how Culley even ended up as the head coach considering his lack of experience.

Jon Gruden (Raiders) and Urban Meyer (Jaguars) were both forced out during the regular season. Additionally, both were let go after scandals rocked their respective franchises.

Black Monday 2021

The 2020-21 NFL season was the last year of a 17-week schedule. So, the Black Monday fell on January 4^th, 2021, and two NFL coaches fell on that day.

The Los Angeles Chargers fired Anthony Lynn after four yeas as their head coach. He finished with a 33-31 record with the Chargers and two straight losing seasons. He also only appeared in the Playoffs one time and went 1-1 that year.

After four full seasons, and two games in 2016 as the interim head coach, the Jaguars fired Doug Marrone as their head coach. He finished his tenure with a 23-43 record in the regular season and 2-1 in the Playoffs. However, his final season saw the team finish 1-15 and a third straight season of six wins or less. And, let’s not forget how he quit on the Buffalo Bills in 2015. It was shocking that the Jaguars even waited this long to fire Marrone, let alone even hiring a head coach who quit his job after two seasons in Buffalo.

The Philadelphia Eagles ended up firing Doug Pederson a week later after discussions broke down and their differences became irreconcilable.

The New York Jets fired Adam Gase after two years at the helm. He finished 9-23 with the Jets, which included a 2-14 record in his final season. Prior to that, Gase was 23-25 with the Miami Dolphins and was also fired on Black Monday of 2018. Another dubious honor to be fired twice on Black Monday.

During the season, the Detroit Lions fired Matt Patricia after Week 11 following 2 ½ seasons and a 13-29-1 record.

The Houston Texans fired Bill O’Brien after Week 4 of the 2020 season. He finished his tenure at 52-48 in the regular season and 2-4 in the Playoffs. He went to the Playoffs two straight years before being fired. It’s more than likely that O’Brien was fired more so due to the Hopkins trade than anything else.

Dan Quinn’s tenure with the Atlanta Falcons came to an end after Week 5 of the season. He finished with a 43-42 regular season record and a 3-2 postseason record in his five-plus years as head coach.