2024-25 NFL Coaching Carousel: Which Head Coaches Get Fired Next?

The NFL coaching carousel refers to the comings and goings of head coaches in the league. Typically, it’s due to head coaches being fired for not meeting the expectations of the front office or the owner. Last year, we saw eight coaches get axed during and after the season. This year, we’ve already seen two head coaches get axed and there are plenty more on the proverbial hot seat.

Heading into the 2024-24 NFL season, New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen (+275) was the odds-on favorite to get fired first. However, the New York Jets canned Robert Saleh (+900) four weeks prior, thus making him the first to be axed during the season.

At the time of this writing, we’re closing in on Thanksgiving and there are plenty of NFL front offices that aren’t feeling very thankful for their teams performing below expectations. In fact, there’s a growing buzz that we could see a few more head coaches canned before the season ends.

Additionally, Black Monday is an annual time of the year where NFL teams often fire their head coaches following the conclusion of the regular season. So, we will also have prop bets on coaches getting their pink slips as we get closer to the final week of the season.

With that said, let’s take a deeper dive into this NFL coaching prop bet, courtesy of the sports betting sites, and make our predictions on which NFL head coach will get fired next and which ones could see their pink slips on Black Monday.

Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

NFL Coaches Fired in 2024

The 2023-24 NFL season concluded with eight head coaches getting fired. You can read more about those coaches in the Black Monday section below. As of this writing, there have been two head coaches fired during the 2024-25 season so far.

Robert Saleh: Saleh spent 3+ seasons with the Jets and finished with a 20-36 record. He failed to have a winning record in any season as the head coach. Despite having Aaron Rodgers back, the Jets continued to lose and the team’s front office lost patience with Saleh. Bettors cashed in on Saleh’s +900 odds to be fired first.

Dennis Allen: The Saints started off 2-0 and then lost seven in a row. The breaking point came in Week 9 when New Orleans lost to the lowly Carolina Panthers. Allen took the brunt of this losing streak despite the injuries and subpar play from both sides of the ball.

As mentioned above, Allen was the odds-on favorite to get fired first. During the preseason, we dissected this prop bet and made the following comments about Allen:

“If the Saints get off to a slow start, Allen is probably gone by Thanksgiving. However, if they can remain competitive all season and come up short, just like last year, then Allen could get axed on Black Monday.”

That’s exactly what ended up happening. The Saints shot out of the gate with two exciting wins, but then fell off a cliff in terms of their on-field performance and their overall record.

NFL Coach Fired Odds

Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson is the odds-on favorite to get fired next. Furthermore, he’s followed closely by Chicago’s Matt Eberflus and Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor. The latter is a surprise name on this list as he wasn’t even considered to be on the hot seat entering the season like these other names.

Let’s break down some of the names on this list and discuss which ones have a real shot at being fired next. We’ll also discuss which head coaches could be fired on or by Black Monday.

Favorites To Be Fired First

The following coaches are odds-on favorites to be fired next:

Doug Pederson (-150)

At the time of this writing, Doug Pederson is a sizable betting favorite to be the next head coach fired this season. The Jacksonville Jaguars sit 2-8 on the season and have no shot at making the Playoffs.

Entering the season, I thought that Pederson’s odds of +1600 offered solid betting value. However, I predicted he could bet out by Black Monday:

“Although Pederson has an 18-16 regular season record with the Jags, along with a 42-37-1 record as Philly’s head coach, he’s definitely on the hot seat this season. If the Jaguars fail to make the Playoffs or waste another year of Lawrence’s prime on mediocrity, then Pederson could be out by Black Monday if not sooner.”

The latter has come true as this franchise is wasting another year of QB Trevor Lawrence’s prime. The team sits 2-8 on the season and is battling for the worst record in the league this year.

The Jaguars are winless on the road and seem both outplayed and outcoached on a weekly basis. They have the makings of a team that’s going to quit on their coach sooner than later. Injuries aside, both sides of the ball have failed to live up to their potential and expectations.

Although that responsibility should be on the players, it will fall on the coach. I don’t see Pederson making it past Black Monday. The only question is whether or not he makes it that far.

Matt Eberflus (+125)

I have called for the Chicago Bears to fire Matt Eberflus after each season. He’s not a high quality head coach and he’s failed to make this franchise better.

Eberflus went 3-14 after his first season at the helm of the Bears. He then went 7-10 following the 2023 season.

That’s a combined record of 10-24 following his first two years. Instead of parting ways, the Bears decided to keep Eberflus and give him the keys to the kingdom by drafting QB Caleb Williams first overall.

There have been times this year that the Bears flashed Playoff potential. And, there have been times where this team has shown that it’s far from making the postseason.

Although the Bears sit 4-5 as of this writing, this team is closer to the reality of another 7-10 season than making the Playoffs with a winning record.

Chicago fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this past week. This came only 10 months after the Bears fired previous OC Luke Getsy. And, it’s the eight coach or assistant to be fired in the Eberflus era.

Now, the Bears were correct with firing Getsy. In fact, the Las Vegas Raiders just axed him this month as their offensive coordinator. But they dropped the ball with how they handled Waldron.

This wasn’t a Waldron problem. This is a Caleb Williams and Matt Eberflus problem. The franchise QB has regressed this season and Eberflus is not a good head coach.

With that said, I believe that Eberflus will survive the season. I don’t see the Bears firing him after they just made Waldron the scapegoat.

Instead, Eberflus will get the rest of the season to prove his value to the franchise. If the team can rally to finish with a winning record, then he will stick around another year. However, the more likely outcome is that this team finishes with a losing record for the thirst year under Eberflus and he ends getting fired by Black Monday.

Zac Taylor (+200)

Zac Taylor took over as the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals in 2019. The team ended up going 2-14 that year. They followed it up with a 4-11-1 record in 2020, and made Joe Burrow the franchise quarterback.

2021 was the pinnacle of Taylor’s tenure so far. The team went 10-7 but made it all the way to the Super Bowl where they lost in a very competitive game.

2022 saw the Bengals improve their record to 12-4 but lose in the AFC Championship game to the Chiefs. Last year, the Bengals dropped to 9-8, but it was largely due to Burrow missing numerous games due to an injury.

Heading into this season, Taylor was 37-44-1. But he also had a 5-2 record in the Playoffs.

As of this writing, the Bengals are 4-6 on the year. They’ve struggled on both sides of the ball and have dealt with many key injuries.

I don’t see the issues being reflective of Taylor’s coaching. I think this has to do more with the injuries and some of the offseason moves like trading Joe Mixon who is doing great for the Houston Texans. After trading Mixon, the Bengals have been left with one of the worst rushing games in the league.

I don’t see any scenario where Taylor gets fired during the season. In fact, I can’t understand how the Bengals would even entertain firing him at all even if they don’t make the Playoffs this year.

Avoid Taylor for this prop bet. There’s no way he gets fired next. There much better options out there.

Mike McCarthy (+600)

Mike McCarthy is a former NFL Coach of the Year along with being a Super Bowl champion during his tenure as the head coach for the Green Bay Packers. He came to the Dallas Cowboys in 2020, after sitting out the entire 2019 season.

McCarthy was fired from the Packers in 2018, after going 4-7-1. It was the 13^th year of his coaching tenure. Overall, McCarthy went 125-77-2 as Green Bay’s head coach during the regular season. He was 10-8 in the postseason. In addition to the Super Bowl win, he was 1-2 in NFC Championship games.

McCarthy started off 6-10 with the Dallas Cowboys. He then tallied three consecutive seasons finishing 12-5 each year. Yet, he was 1-3 in Playoff games over that span.

Coming into the 2024-25 season, McCarthy and the Cowboys had Super Bowl aspirations as they do on an annual basis. Unfortunately for the Dallas faithful, this team will be lucky to finish with five wins on the season.

The Cowboys were already struggling due to injuries and a lack of offensive balance. They have no rushing game and they lost Dak Prescott for the year in early November.

There are built-in excuses for the rest of the season in regards to McCarthy’s tenure. However, this team was not going to make the Playoffs even prior to Prescott suffering a season ending injury.

Coming into the season, I predicted that McCarthy would get fired if the Cowboys had another “failed” Playoff run. As of this writing, they’re 3-6 and will be lucky not to finish last in the NFC East division.

It’s time for Dallas to move on from McCarthy and make some drastic moves in the offseason to get this team where Jerry Jones envisions them – Super Bowl contenders.

I don’t see McCarthy being the next coach to get fired, but I do believe he will be axed on Black Monday.

Brian Daboll (+600)

Following a successful tenure as the Offensive Coordinator for the Buffalo Bills, Brian Daboll was hired by the New York Giants in 2022.

His first season with New York, saw the team go 9-7-1 and make the Playoffs. They were even able to win the Wild Card matchup that postseason. Daboll became one of the most popular sports figures in the region and the Giants were being hailed as a team on the rise.

Unfortunately, the team regressed last year by going 6-11. Injuries plagued them especially at the QB position after Daniel Jones was knocked out for the year.

Instead of building around the potential, the team let their best player in Saquon Barkley go. He’s now helping NFC East rival the Philadelphia Eagles become one of the best teams in the NFC. And, Barkley is near the top of the league in rushing yards. Further adding insult to New York’s absurd decision to part ways with Barkley.

I picked the Giants to contend for the worst record in the NFL this year. And, they’re not letting me down. Currently, the Giants are 2-8 and tied with the Jaguars for the worst record in the league.

The Giants have added some pieces to their roster, but it’s not enough to keep Daboll’s job safe. I picked Daboll to be the first head coach fired this year. I was close as I had the right market and stadium, but I didn’t think that the Jets would be the one to axe their coach first.

I thought the first coach would get fired by November 1^st and I was right there as well. Once again, I thought that would be Daboll and not Saleh.

I had predicted that the Giants could start off 1-7 and that would lead to Daboll’s firing. They sit 2-8 and he’s still coaching. It really has me baffled considering this team is just awful. Also as predicted, they have taken a step back in the running game, Jones continues to show that he’s not a franchise QB and the offensive line is bad.

I really don’t understand how Daboll still has a job. I don’t see that being the case come Black Monday. If he makes it to the beginning of January, Daboll will get axed by the Monday following the conclusion of the regular season. But, will he be the next coach fired?

Which NFL Coach Will Be Fired First?

As mentioned, in the preseason, I picked Daboll to be the first coach fired. However, I did also think that Allen could be gone by Thanksgiving. The latter came to fruition but Daboll is still leading the Giants to more losses.

I definitely think that Daboll will get fired at the end of the year. I’m also leaning towards Eberflus, McCarthy, and Kevin Stefanski all to get fired by Black Monday.

Stefanski may be a surprise to some, but this Browns franchise is in shambles and the front office needs to hit a hard refresh on the entire roster. They also need to get rid of Deshaun Watson. Cleveland could finish with the worse record. At the very least, they will be Top 3 along with the Jaguars and Giants.

As for this prop bet, you have to go with the favorite. Doug Pederson’s time in Jacksonville is coming to an end. A few more ugly losses and the front office will have no choice but to axe him. As much as I want it to be Daboll the next coach fired, or would love to see the Cowboys add more fuel to their misery by firing McCarthy by Thanksgiving, I have to go with the Pederson.

The Jaguars have really taken a step back this season. Their on-field play has been well below expectations and it doesn’t seem like this team even knows how to win games anymore. Pederson is consistently outcoached as well.

I would be shocked if Pederson makes it to Black Monday at this rate. It would be a win for the coach if he makes it past Thanksgiving.

Bet: Doug Pederson (-150)

NFL Black Monday

The origin of Black Monday began in the 1990s after The Chicago Tribune mentioned this term in association with College Football coaches getting fired. By the late 1990s, many of the major media outlets were using this term to describe the NFL firings following the end of the season.

Typically, the last NFL game is played on Sunday night. Following that game, teams that don’t make the Playoffs are looking towards building for the offseason, which may include firing their head coach.

What Is NFL Black Monday?

NFL Black Monday refers to the Monday right after the conclusion of the regular season. It’s often when teams fire head coaches, coordinators or GMs for disappointing seasons. Since 18 teams don’t make the Playoffs, there’s a higher chance that coaches get fired on this day than during the regular season.

Black Monday 2024

Since the NFL moved to an 18-week regular season, Black Monday is now pushed back into January of the following calendar year. So, the 2023-24 regular season ended on Sunday, January 7^th. This meant that Black Monday fell on January 8^th.

And, true to form, the axe fell on multiple coaches this Black Monday as Atlanta fired Arthur Smith early that morning. Smith finished his three-year tenure with the Falcons going 21-30 and never making the Playoffs. In fact, he finished with a 7-10 record each of his three seasons.

The Washington Commanders would fire Ron Rivera later that day, after four years as their head coach. Rivera finished 26-40-1 with four years of non-winning football. The Commanders did finish 7-9 in 2020 and won the NFC East division, but they lost in the Wild Card round to Brady and the Bucs. Prior to that, Rivera went 76-63-1 with Carolina during the regular season and 3-4 in the postseason. He led the Panthers to a Super Bowl loss against the Broncos in SB 50.

Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel had intense discussions all Black Monday and had one foot out the door. However, his official release didn’t take place until the next day. Yet, he was pretty much gone on that Monday.

Future HOF coach Pete Carroll almost survived the firing squad. Unfortunately, differences between Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks front office weren’t able to be resolved and the 72-year-old coach was let go two days after Black Monday.

On January 11th, 2024, the greatest NFL head coach of all-time, Bill Belichick agreed with the New England Patriots to part ways. That’s a nice way to say that the team was going to fire him. Belichick finished his 24-year tenure with the Patriots sporting a 266-121-0 record with 6 Super Bowl wins and a 30-12 Playoff mark. He also won 17 AFC East titles including 11 in a row from 2009-2019.

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Frank Reich, Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels were all released during the season. The Panthers didn’t even give Reich a full first year as head coach. They fired him after Week 11 due to the team getting off to a 1-10 start. Brandon Staley lasted under three seasons as the Los Angeles Chargers fired him after Week 15 due to a 5-9 start and one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history. The Raiders destroyed the Chargers on Thursday Night Football by the score of 63-21.

Last year, Josh McDaniels was the first coach to get fired. So, if you were betting on this prop bet for the 2023-24 NFL season, you would’ve won if you wagered on McDaniels. The Raiders axed him after Week 8 due to Las Vegas starting the season 3-5. McDaniels finished with a 9-16 mark and a roster full of players that celebrated his departure from the organization.

Black Monday 2023

On January 8, 2023, Black Monday saw Kliff Kingsbury as the lone head coach to get fired on this day. The Arizona Cardinals decided to part ways with the once highly regarded coach.

That year, Houston fired Lovie Smith a few hours prior to the start of Black Monday. Additionally, three coaches were fired during the season:

On October 10, 2022, the Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start to the season.

The day after Christmas, the Denver Broncos didn’t even want to wait until Black Monday to fire Nathaniel Hackett. The team was 4-11 and most of the players had quit on the coach months prior. At least they let Hackett celebrate the holiday still employed!

Following five seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich was bounced after Week 9 due to a 3-5-1 start to the season. Ironically, Reich was fired after a 1-10 start to the 2023-24 season with the Panthers. It’s a dubious honor to be fired two years in a row during the season.

Black Monday 2022

The conclusion of the 2021-22 season came to an end on January 9^th, which put Black Monday on January 10^th. The Denver Broncos didn’t even wait until Black Monday to fire Vic Fangio. After three seasons, and a 19-30 record, the Broncos fired him on the Sunday before, since the team played on Saturday, January 8^th.

Following eight years as the head coach of the Vikings, Mike Zimmer was fired due to another losing season with an 8-9 record. He finished his tenure with a 72-56-1 regular season mark along with a 2-3 postseason record.

The Chicago Bears put fans out of their misery by finally firing Matt Nagy after his fourth season as the head coach. Nagy finished with a 34-31 record. However, he had three consecutive seasons of 8-8 or worse to close out his tenure.

The biggest surprise on the 2022 Black Monday, was Brian Flores getting fired by the Miami Dolphins. Although Flores didn’t make the Playoffs during his three years as the head coach, he did have two consecutive winning seasons before being let go. Flores finished with a 24-25 record with the Dolphins. However, that record is misleading as he went 19-14 over his final two years.

The New York Giants waited an extra day before firing Joe Judge after two seasons at the helm. Judge was 10-23 over those two years, so it’s unclear if the team wanted Judge to have his own day of facing the firing squad or if Judge nearly bribed or blackmailed the front office for a third year as the coach.

A few days following Black Monday, the Houston Texans fired David Culley after just one season. The team finished 4-13. It’s still a mystery how Culley even ended up as the head coach considering his lack of experience.

Jon Gruden (Raiders) and Urban Meyer (Jaguars) were both forced out during the regular season. Additionally, both were let go after scandals rocked their respective franchises.

Black Monday 2021

The 2020-21 NFL season was the last year of a 17-week schedule. So, the Black Monday fell on January 4^th, 2021, and two NFL coaches fell on that day.

The Los Angeles Chargers fired Anthony Lynn after four yeas as their head coach. He finished with a 33-31 record with the Chargers and two straight losing seasons. He also only appeared in the Playoffs one time and went 1-1 that year.

After four full seasons, and two games in 2016 as the interim head coach, the Jaguars fired Doug Marrone as their head coach. He finished his tenure with a 23-43 record in the regular season and 2-1 in the Playoffs. However, his final season saw the team finish 1-15 and a third straight season of six wins or less. And, let’s not forget how he quit on the Buffalo Bills in 2015. It was shocking that the Jaguars even waited this long to fire Marrone, let alone even hiring a head coach who quit his job after two seasons in Buffalo.

The Philadelphia Eagles ended up firing Doug Pederson a week later after discussions broke down and their differences became irreconcilable.

The New York Jets fired Adam Gase after two years at the helm. He finished 9-23 with the Jets, which included a 2-14 record in his final season. Prior to that, Gase was 23-25 with the Miami Dolphins and was also fired on Black Monday of 2018. Another dubious honor to be fired twice on Black Monday.

During the season, the Detroit Lions fired Matt Patricia after Week 11 following 2 ½ seasons and a 13-29-1 record.

The Houston Texans fired Bill O’Brien after Week 4 of the 2020 season. He finished his tenure at 52-48 in the regular season and 2-4 in the Playoffs. He went to the Playoffs two straight years before being fired. It’s more than likely that O’Brien was fired more so due to the Hopkins trade than anything else.

Dan Quinn’s tenure with the Atlanta Falcons came to an end after Week 5 of the season. He finished with a 43-42 regular season record and a 3-2 postseason record in his five-plus years as head coach.