2024-25 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions

As we approach the conclusion of the 2024-25 NFL regular season, the hottest race in the league is not the NFC Conference’s top spot, the NFC South division, or the final AFC Wild Card spot. Although all of those races are exciting, the most talked about race is the NFL MVP battle between Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley.

All three men have put together stellar campaigns heading into the final week of the regular season. We’re going to break down each player’s season, their chances of winning the award, and if there are any other players that could be a darkhorse candidate. Hint, Joe Burrow!

Let’s take a look at the latest NFL odds for the MVP award, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our NFL MVP predictions.

2024 NFL MVP Odds

Check out the latest NFL MVP odds:

At the start of the season, Patrick Mahomes was the favorite to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP award with +475. Mahomes is a two-time NFL MVP (2018, 2022) and a three-time Super Bowl champion. However, he’s nowhere to be found in this tight MVP race as of the new year.

Saquon Barkley wasn’t even listed by most sportsbooks at the beginning of the season. In fact, his teammate Jalen Hurts had MVP odds of +1500, while the running back wasn’t even considered.

Lastly, both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow were tied for the third spot at +900 odds. Both men were considered among the favorites to land the MVP award, but nearly twice the odds as Mahomes.

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NFL MVP Award Contenders

The following is a list of the four players who are considered the only viable contenders to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP award:

The MVP Case For Josh Allen’s First MVP Award

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have locked up the #2 seed in the AFC Conference, won their division for a fifth consecutive year, and have a 13-3 record heading into the final week of season where most of the starters will rest.

The Bills crushed the AFC East division and put up some eye-popping stats along the way. Perhaps, the biggest team accomplishments this season, in addition to the ones just mentioned, were that Buffalo is the only team to have defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on the year.

Buffalo handed the Chiefs a nine-point loss to give KC their only blemish heading into Week 18 where they will sit most of their starters.

Additionally, the Bills went on the road to beat the Detroit Lions in arguably the best game of the season. This makes Buffalo the only squad to beat the Chiefs and Lions on the year. Both KC and Detroit are the top teams in their respective conferences.

Keep in mind, Buffalo wasn’t even picked to win their division at the start of the season. Many so-called pundits were taking the Jets or Dolphins. These analysts said that Buffalo lost too many players in the off-season to be a real contender this year.

Enter Superman, aka Josh Allen.

Allen become the first player in NFL history to finish with 40+ total TDs in five consecutive seasons. Currently, Allen has 41 total touchdowns through 16 games.

Allen has led the Bills to a franchise record with 502 points scored this season, which breaks the mark that he and the team set in 2020.

Furthermore, Allen has less turnovers this season that Jackson does. He’s also playing with an inferior roster compared to Jackson’s supporting cast in Baltimore.

NFL analyst Tony Romo said during the Bills vs. Jets broadcast, that Allen will get the award due to Lamar winning two already:

“I think they’re tied in my brain. I think that Josh Allen might get the edge, only because Lamar’s had two. If Josh had two, you’re gonna side with the guy who doesn’t have one. That’s just human nature in my opinion.”

Can Lamar Jackson Pick Up a Third MVP?

The Baltimore Ravens are surging at the end of the season and Lamar Jackson is a big reason why. The talented QB has been incredible this season with 3,955 yards, 43 total TDs, nine turnovers and 852 rushing yards.

He has better stats than Allen in all major individual categories. Additionally, Jackson is putting up career-best numbers this year, which dwarf what he’s done in his two previous MVP victories. Furthermore, Jackson is flirting with breaking the all-time season mark for NFL QB rating.

The Ravens are close to locking up the #3 seed in the conference and the AFC North division, which is a remarkable turnaround considering they were a few games back of the Steelers last month.

With that said, Jackson’s supporting cast and the renewed effort from the defense has just as much to do with the Ravens’ turnaround.

One knock against Jackson’s MVP case is that this team lost to the Browns and Raiders, two of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Yet, Jackson and company beat Allen in a head-to-head matchup where Derrick Henry went off for 120 yards on the Bills defense.

With that said, Jackson (2019, 2023) is arguably the best all-around player in the NFL even if he’s not the best QB as that not goes to Mahomes. However, does being the best player make him the most valuable player? That’s the debate here.

Is Saquon Barkley Going To Make History?

Saquon Barkley became the ninth player to rush for over 2,000 yards in NFL history. He joins other players like OJ Simpson (the first to do it), Derrick Henry, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson.

Currently, Barkley has 2,005 rushing yards heading into the final game of the season and only needs 101 yards to break Dickerson’s all-time mark of 2,105 rushing yards in a season. Of course, that was done in a 16-game season. Of course, Simpson surpassed 2,000 yards in a 14-game season.

The Eagles were committed to getting Barkley to 2,000 yards in Week 17 versus the Cowboys as they kept him in the game during a blowout. They even handed him the ball five straight times in the fourth quarter. His final tally was 167 yards on 31 carries.

For Barkley to break the record, he would have to do it against his former team the New York Giants. Additionally, Philly would have to commit to playing Barkley and other starters in the final week of the season in order for the talented running back to surpass Dickerson.

Speaking of the HOF running back, he’s firmly rooting against Barkley breaking the record:

“These people who say, ‘records are meant to be broken,’ you ain’t got no record. You don’t have one. “Absolutely not! That doesn’t even make sense. Like I told the guy earlier, I don’t want nobody to break my record. He even said if he breaks it, he doesn’t want anybody to break his. I get it.”

You have to love a guy who’s passionate about his record and career in the NFL. Additionally, just because he doesn’t want Barkley to break it, that doesn’t mean he’s not a fan of Saquon.

There’s no doubt that Barkley would break the record if Philly truly committed to it. The problem is that the team will most likely rest most of their starters in Week 18 as they have locked up the #2 seed and the NFC East division, but can’t win the top spot. So, other than Barkley’s record-breaking attempt, the Eagles have nothing to play for.

Does Joe Burrow Actually Have a Chance?

There is a growing voice that’s shouting for Joe Burrow to win the NFL MVP if he can lead the Bengals to a Playoff spot. Well, that’s a big “if” and one that shouldn’t really be factored into this MVP discussion.

The Bengals will most likely miss out on the Playoffs, despite Burrow’s incredible efforts the second half of the season to bring this team back from the dead.

Heading into Week 18, Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards (4,641 yds) and passing TDs (42). Yet, Cincy needs to beat the Steelers in the final week along with also needing the Broncos to lose against the Chiefs and for the Dolphins to lose versus the Jets.

So, even if Burrow and the Bengals beat Pittsburgh, they still need two other teams to lose. The Chiefs will be resting most of their team in Week 18, which gives Denver a great shot at winning and clinching the final AFC Wild Card spot.

Additionally, the Dolphins are playing the Jets who look like a team that has given their starters off every week for the last three months. Can you imagine firing your head coach and then going 2-9 afterwards? Well, that’s exactly what the Jets have done.

Bottom line, even though Burrow is having an amazing season, there’s no way he makes the Playoffs, which means that bringing up his name in the MVP race is just pointless.

NFL MVP Award Predictions

As a fan, my two favorite players are Saquon Barkley and Josh Allen. Growing up in Buffalo, and attending Penn State for college, really has me in my feelings over this race.

Yet, when it’s all said and done, I subscribe to Emmanuel Acho’s argument on the NFL MVP race:

“Simply put, Josh Allen has to do just as much, if not more, with less. I was rewatching the Ravens game last night, and there were moments in time, if not the majority of the time, where I asked myself: ‘who’s the best player on the Ravens’ offense?’ I mean, make no mistake about it, Derrick Henry rushed for 120 plus yards in that game. I’m sitting there watching this game and I’m saying the Ravens’ offense has two Hall of Famers. The Bills’ offense – it just has Josh Allen.”

How can you give an MVP award to Jackson when he has Derrick Henry in the backfield? Sure, his numbers are better than last year’s MVP season, but that’s due to Henry. The future HOF running back is second in the NFL in rushing yards and second in all-purpose yards.

Allen doesn’t have anyone on the Bills offense even close to Henry. In fact, Baltimore’s offensive line is better than Buffalo’s, Zay Flowers is better than any Buffalo receiver, and Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely are just as good, if not better than Buffalo’s tight ends this season.

Allen has doing more with less talent around him than Jackson has. There’s maybe one game this season where Allen failed to be the best player on the field for Buffalo. Yet, there are numerous games where Henry was the sole reason that the Ravens won and not Jackson.

Sure, Jackson has the better stats but he also has the better team. Allen has the better Playoff seed, better record, and beat the better teams than Jackson.

As for Barkley, his supporting cast is even better than Jackson’s. Barkley has a Top 10 QB in Jalen Hurts and a Top 5 WR in AJ Brown. Not to mention, Smith is a Top 25 WR even if he’s the #2 on the team. And, Philly is widely regarded as having the best offensive line in the league. They also have a Top 5 defense as well.

Even if Barkley breaks Dickerson’s record, I still don’t see him getting the MVP award because his supporting cast is quite possibly the best in the NFL.

This NFL MVP race comes down to Jackson and Allen. With that said, Allen has done more with less and edges out Lamar for the award.

Bet: Josh Allen (-300)

NFL MVP Award Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NFL MVP winners: