2024-25 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Predictions

While you may think the NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year Awards have quite a bit of overlap, that isn’t always the case. While just one defensive player has ever won MVP – Lawrence Taylor in 1986 – there are differences between MVP and OPOY.

The Associated Press (AP) awards the Offensive Player of the Year to the player voters deem to have had the most outstanding season. This is a bit different from MVP, which is typically handed out to the best player on the best team. Last year, Lamar Jackson won MVP after leading the Ravens to a league-best 13-4 regular-season record. It was Jackson’s second career MVP.

However, Jackson hasn’t won Offensive Player of the Year in either of his MVP campaigns. Derrick Henry took home the prize during Jackson’s first MVP season in 2020, while Christian McCaffrey claimed the trophy last year.

So, there is some nuance to betting on OPOY. The odds don’t perfectly align with MVP odds, either. Patrick Mahomes is the early MVP favorite, but the Chiefs’ signal-caller isn’t the preseason favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. Far from it, in fact.

So, who is? Let’s break down the betting odds.

2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Tyreek Hill (+700)

Tyreek Hill spent much of last season as the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year in just his second season with the Dolphins. Miami’s offense got off to a red-hot start, and Hill was the catalyst. The speedster caught 11 passes for 215 yards in Week 1 against the Chargers, and he proceeded to top 100 yards receiving in 5 of the Fins’ first 8 games. At one point, he publicly said his goal was to top 2,000 yards.

However, injuries derailed him a bit. Hill failed to crack 100 receiving yards in any of the Dolphins’ final 4 games of the year despite a heavy dosage of targets from Tua Tagovailoa. Across 16 games, Hill still managed to tie a career-high in receptions (119), targets (171), and receiving yards (1,799) while adding 13 touchdowns.

What does he have for an encore? Hill is one of the NFL’s most game-breaking talents, but he did turn 30 this past March. He’s still in the prime of his career, but how long can his 5’10” frame hold up? For what it’s worth, Hill has never logged less than 12 games in a season, so he has been remarkably durable despite his smallish stature.

Even in his best-ever season, Hill still finished a distant second to McCaffrey in OPOY voting last year. Hill received just 139 votes to C-Mac’s 222, while McCaffrey’s 39 first-place votes trounced Hill’s total of 7.

Christian McCaffrey (+750)

Christian McCaffrey’s versatility is unmatched. As a dual-threat running back, he can change the game both on the ground and through the air. You can easily argue that McCaffrey is the NFL’s most useful weapon, which is why the Niners gave him a lucrative contract extension earlier this offseason.

Health has been an issue over the years, as is often the case with running backs. In his first full season in San Francisco, McCaffrey played 16 regular-season games for the second time since 2019 when he was in Carolina. He set a new career-high in rushing yards (1,459), yards per carry (5.4), and total touchdowns (21). He also hauled in 67 of his 83 targets for 564 yards as a part of the league’s most dynamic offense.

While I think McCaffrey should be favored to win this award again based on the numbers, I’m assuming oddsmakers are taking the potential for injury into account. RBs are generally more injury-prone than receivers because of the wear-and-tear, and McCaffrey turned 28 in June.

The +750 odds make C-Mac an appealing bet, but going back-to-back with this award is almost unprecedented. The last player to win consecutive Offensive Player of the Year trophies was Marshall Faulk, who won 3 straight with the Rams between 1999 and 2001.

CeeDee Lamb (+900)

The Cowboys had high hopes for CeeDee Lamb when they surprisingly took him with the 17th pick in the 2020 draft. Wide receiver wasn’t one of the team’s weaknesses at the time, but Jerry Jones felt it would be prudent to take the best player available with that selection.

So far, it looks like the right decision. Lamb has posted 3 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, including a career-best 1,749 in 2023. He also found the end zone 12 times, though the Cowboys ultimately fell short of expectations when they were embarrassingly eliminated by the Packers in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.

Lamb is still only 25, so it’s reasonable to wonder whether he’s even reached his ceiling yet. The Cowboys haven’t made many personnel changes this offseason, so it’s fair to expect CeeDee to be an integral part of the offensive plans once again. Given his incredible numbers, why wouldn’t he be?

Lamb finished third in OPOY voting behind McCaffrey and Hill last season, just ahead of Lamar Jackson and his own QB, Dak Prescott.

Ja’Marr Chase (+1200)

The 2023 campaign was a nightmarish one for the Bengals, but they’re hoping to turn the page entering 2024. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow battled injuries, but both are healthy heading into training camp this year.

The former LSU teammates have had an instant connection ever since teaming up again in Cincinnati. Chase has topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first 3 professional seasons. That he mustered 1,216 yards last year with Burrow only healthy for 10 games is a testament to his prowess. In 45 career games, the 24-year-old has totaled 268 catches on 407 targets for 3,717 yards and 29 touchdowns.

Like Lamb, the youngster still has room to grow. I’m expecting the Cincinnati offense to bounce back in a big way this season, and Chase looks like a sneaky threat to lead the NFL in receiving yards. If he does, he’ll grade out as a phenomenal value at his preseason +1200 OPOY betting odds.

Breece Hall (+1500) and Justin Jefferson (+1500)

Both Breece Hall and Justin Jefferson have shown flashes of brilliance in their young careers. Hall’s ground game and Jefferson’s aerial assault have kept defenses on their heels.

Hall tore his ACL just 7 games into his rookie year, but the Jets had to be impressed by what they saw prior to the injury. He was healthy enough to play all 17 games last year, and he rushed for 994 yards on 223 carries for what was an otherwise dismal New York offense. With Aaron Rodgers set to replace Zach Wilson under center, many are optimistic about the Jets’ chances to improve considerably on the offensive side of the ball.

Still, I’m a bit surprised to see Hall listed where he is alongside several more established Pro Bowl-caliber players.

Speaking of more established players, Jefferson is another terrific value at the same odds. He was held to just 10 games due to injury last season, yet he still managed to top 1,000 receiving yards along with 5 touchdowns for an underwhelming Vikings offense. Like Chase, Jefferson has also recorded at leas 1,000 receiving yards in every season since leaving LSU for the pro ranks.

Kirk Cousins is now in Atlanta, so there are some question marks under center for Minnesota. Sam Darnold is expected to begin the year as the starter, though JJ McCarthy will likely get a chance if Darnold underwhelms. Jefferson won’t win Offensive Player of the Year this season without competent quarterback play, so I am a bit wary of going all-in despite the admittedly appealing odds.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (+2200)

The Lions were the Cinderella story of the 2023 season, and they’ll enter 2024 with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. This is one of the best young teams in football, and they’ll be in the mix for an NFC title as long as they can stay healthy.

A major part of last year’s success was the steady production of Amon-Ra St. Brown. The 24-year-old has proven to be quite the steal since the Lions grabbed him with the 112th overall pick back in 2021. St. Brown burst onto the scene by hauling in 90 passes for 912 yards as an unheralded rookie that season. His production has increased over each of his first 3 years. St. Brown set new career highs in catches (119), targets (164), yards (1,515), and touchdowns (10) in 16 games last year.

Amon-Ra has played at least 16 games in every season, and durability is important when it comes to winning awards. If you’re not on the field, you’re not going to win a damn thing. I’m optimistic that Detroit can thrive again this season despite the sky-high expectations, and St. Brown is going to be heavily involved in their attack once again.

Jonathan Taylor (+2800)

It’s been a few years since Jonathan Taylor was at the peak of his powers, but perhaps oddsmakers are underestimating him as a result. Taylor was the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts before the 2022 season, but injuries have slowed him ever since.

Since exploding for a league-high 1,811 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021, Taylor has totaled just 1,602 yards and 11 touchdowns in the ensuing 2 seasons combined. The talent is clearly there, but, again, staying healthy has been a difficult task for him. It’s easy to forget that Taylor is still only 25 considering it feels like he’s been around forever, but you can bet the Colts will lean heavily on him for as long as he’s healthy this season.

Despite that 1,811-yard performance in 2021, Taylor still didn’t even win Offensive Player of the Year. The honor went to the Rams’ Cooper Kupp, who recorded an absurd 1,947 receiving yards and 16 TDs in the best year of his own storied career.

Taylor is the crux of Indy’s incredibly young offense. This is a team with a lot of potential, and they’ll only go as far as JT can drag them. Anthony Richardson is a promising young QB, but Taylor will need to be a consistent force on the ground if the Colts are going to exceed expectations. The only other RBs on the Colts’ roster other than Taylor are Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson, so to say Indianapolis is banking on JT’s health is probably an understatement.

Garrett Wilson (+2800)

Garrett Wilson is another impressive young player whose career is off to a fine start. He’s topped 1,000 receiving yards in both of his professional seasons since coming out of Ohio State, which is no small feat considering he’s had Zach Wilson as his primary QB.

If Rodgers can stay healthy, this Jets offense should be able to put points on the board. That’s a big ask considering Rodgers’ age and the fact that he’s coming off of a major Achilles injury. Wilson has also found the end zone just 7 times in his career. He’s going to have to top that number this season in order to have any shot whatsoever at claiming Offensive Player of the Year.

Puka Nacua (+3000) and Kyren Williams (+3500)

The Rams’ Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams come in at +3000 and +3500, respectively, to win Offensive Player of the Year. Cooper Kupp, meanwhile, isn’t even on the board as he reaches the twilight stages of his career.

Nacua burst onto the scene last season unexpectedly as a rookie. The Rams’ 5th-round pick out of BYU was one of the most prolific receivers in football, which is a development nobody could’ve seen coming. Nacua formed a fruitful partnership with Matthew Stafford right away, though he certainly benefited from some of Kupp’s injury issues.

Still, the numbers speak for themselves. Nacua caught 105 of 160 targets for 1,486 yards and 6 touchdowns for Los Angeles. The sky is the limit for the 23-year-old, but I am skeptical of his chances of putting up a repeat showing if Kupp can stay healthy.

Williams, meanwhile, took over as the Rams’ lead back after Cam Akers fell out of favor with Sean McVay. LA was reportedly high on the Notre Dame product ahead of the 2022 draft, and he’s looking like yet another 5th-round gem.

After playing a very limited role as a rookie, Williams became a bell cow for the Rams last year. In 12 games, Williams racked up 1,144 yards on 228 carries and scored 12 touchdowns. He’s still only 23, so he should have plenty of gas left in the tank.

However, the Rams did spend a 3rd-rounder in the most recent draft on Michigan RB Blake Corum, which is an indication that Williams may not log quite as many snaps as he did a season ago. If Williams is splitting carries, he has no chance of taking home OPOY honors.

Quarterback Contenders

Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes (+4500)

While OPOY doesn’t go to QBs nearly as often as MVP does, it’s still a bit jarring to see the league’s top signal-callers so low on this list. One of the names above isn’t like the others, of course. Anthony Richardson is a largely unproven player entering just his 2nd NFL season, while everyone else on the board has several Pro Bowl selections.

A quarterback hasn’t won Offensive Player of the Year since Mahomes did during his breakout 2018 campaign. Mahomes topped 50 touchdown passes that year, so it took quite an effort for him to win OPOY and MVP in the same year. Matt Ryan (2016), Cam Newton (2015), Peyton Manning (2013), Drew Brees (2011), and Tom Brady (2010) are other quarterbacks to have won OPOY over the past decade or so.

That’s still a healthy number of QBs, even if it’s been 6 years since a passer has won the award. Frankly, I think the odds are a bit silly. I’d much rather bet on Mahomes or Jackson at +4500 than take worse odds on guys like Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, or Kyren Williams.

The +4500 odds indicate a tiny 2.17 percent implied probability of winning the award. Does anybody really think Mahomes has a 2 percent chance to win? Poppycock!

Who Will Win Offensive Player of the Year?

Look, I understand why guys like Hill, McCaffrey, and Lamb are the frontrunners to win Offensive Player of the Year. Voters have seemingly shied away from giving this award to quarterbacks in recent years with QBs almost always winning MVP. The last time one QB won MVP and a different QB won OPOY was back in 2011 with Aaron Rodgers (MVP) and Drew Brees (OPOY).

The odds just look silly to me. Mahomes is the early favorite to win MVP at +475. You’re telling me you can get the favorite to win MVP at +4500 to also win Offensive Player of the Year? The very same player who was the last layer to win both awards in the same season?

Yes, please.

Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (+4500)