2024 NFL Week 1 Odds and Predictions For Each Game

At long last, we’ve reached the end of the NFL offseason. The preseason is in the rearview mirror, and now the games count for real. Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season gets underway with what should be a thrilling AFC Championship rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens in Kansas City on Thursday Night, September 5. Is this the beginning of the Chiefs making another run to the Super Bowl?

The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers will square off in the NFL’s first-ever game to take place in Brazil the following day, while the schedule gets started in earnest with a full Sunday slate on September 8.

We’ve got quite a few compelling games on tap for the first week of the campaign. Let’s check out the latest NFL odds for Week 1, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make some NFL Week 1 predictions for every game. For more Week 1 action, check out our Best NFL Week 1 player prop bets.

NFL Week 1 Schedule

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the full Week 1 slate of matchups and make our early NFL picks for each game.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds 

The Ravens head to Kansas City as 3-point underdogs. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes face off in a thrilling Week 1 battle. The Chiefs, fresh off of a 2nd consecutive Super Bowl title, have the upper hand with their high-powered offense and home-field advantage.

Both teams made some positive changes this offseason. The Ravens attempted to add some oomph to the running game by signing former NFL rushing champ Derrick Henry away from the Titans. The Chiefs restocked their arsenal around Mahomes by adding a pair of speedy receivers in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Xavier Worthy.

Kansas City doesn’t have the most prolific run defense, even with Chris Jones still in the mix after he put pen to paper on a new long-term deal this offseason. If the Ravens can establish Henry with Jackson supplying his usual threat, Baltimore can accomplish its goal of controlling the clock and the tempo of the game. The Ravens did lose a pair of offensive linemen – Morgan Moses and John Simpson – so this unit will look a little different.

The Chiefs at home are typically a good bet to win, of course. Since Mahomes took over as the full-time starting quarterback in 2018, Kansas City is 36-10 at Arrowhead Stadium as favorites. However, their record against the spread is far more spotty. KC is just 36-32-1 ATS as home favorites in the same span. Perhaps that shouldn’t be a huge surprise considering how often they’ve been heavy favorites in the midst of their ongoing dynasty.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

Spread: Chiefs -3 (-105)

• The Chiefs are the home favorites.
• Solid offensive power; capable of covering this spread.
• If you trust Mahomes to win by more than a field goal, this is the safer bet.

Moneyline: KC -155 / BAL +130

• Chiefs at -155 are relatively pricey for a moneyline bet.
• Ravens at +130 offer value for risk-takers who believe they can pull off an upset.
• Safer bet is the Chiefs spread rather than laying -155 on the moneyline.

Total: 46.5

• Both teams have explosive offenses.
• Lean towards the Over with the potential for a high-scoring shootout.
• Consider betting the over if you expect both offenses to thrive.

Betting Trends:

• Last 10 meetings between Baltimore and Kansas City have gone 5-5 ATS, O/U, and straight up.
• Ravens are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 regular-season games.
• Total has gone Under in 5 of the Chiefs’ last 7 games.

Prediction: Chiefs -3, Over 46.5
Best Bet: Chiefs -3

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds 

The Eagles open their season as the designated home team for this game in Brazil against the Packers. Philly is coming off of a disappointing end to what was initially a promising 2023 season, and they’re something of a question mark heading into ’24. The Packers, with their young offensive core, will are among the favorites to claim the NFC North title.

Despite their second-half slump and embarrassing playoff blowout loss to Tamp Bay, the Eagles are still favored by a little less than a field goal in this one. Philly’s big splash this offseason was the signing of former Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley, who should help to bring more balance to a potentially dynamic offense. The Birds were fairly prolific on the ground last season – averaging 128.8 yards per game – but Barkley is still a clear upgrade over D’Andre Swift as the team’s primary back.

The Packers gave the 49ers a sweat in the Divisional Round of last year’s playoffs, which was awfully impressive considering Jordan Love was, essentially, a rookie quarterback. Like the Eagles, the Pack attempted to bolster their run game by signing a big-time RB in former Raider Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is just a couple of years removed from leading the league in rushing yards, and he figures to give the offense a different dimension than the oft-injured Aaron Jones did a season ago.

Philadelphia’s defense underperformed last season despite a boatload of talent, but both defenses could have trouble in this one. Sao Paulo is about a half-mile above sea level, so conditioning could be a real issue on both sides, especially this early in the season. This game features one of the highest over/unders of Week 1 at 48.5, and rightfully so.

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions 

Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-112)

• Eagles are just under a field goal favorite, giving a nice cushion.
• Green Bay is 22-10 ATS as an underdog over the past few years.
• Consider this bet if you believe in Philly’s bounce-back potential.

Moneyline: PHI -135 / GB +114

• Eagles at -135 are decent value for a home favorite.
• Packers at +114 provide upside if you expect them to upset.
• If you prefer the safer play, the Philadelphia moneyline looks like the option.

Total: 48.5

• These teams can produce offensively, but 48.5 is relatively high.
• Lean towards the Over if you expect the altitude to be an issue for the defenses.
• If both offenses are slow out of the gate, the under has value.

Betting Trends:

• Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games.
• Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Eagles.
• Green Bay is 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games vs. NFC East foes.

Prediction: Packers +2.5, Over 48.5
Best Bet: Packers ML (+114)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills Odds 

The Bills’ potent offense looks to dominate a potentially overmatched Cardinals squad in Week 1. Josh Allen and the Bills should cruise to a comfortable victory at home, while Arizona may struggle to keep pace.

Buffalo is once again hunting for their first AFC Championship since the 1990s. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, however, which means Allen will have to make do with a reshaped receiving corps. The team has high hopes for rookie Keon Coleman, while veterans Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir will have to step up and play big roles. A breakout for 2nd-year tight end Dalton Kincaid could also be on the horizon after a promising rookie campaign.

The Cardinals seem to be trending in the right direction. Kyler Murray is now over a year removed from his ACL tear, so he should be back to full strength after Arizona took a cautious approach with his health a season ago. The Cardinals nabbed a potential star wideout in Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft, while Trey Benson will provide some competition for longtime starter James Conner in the backfield. Murray has the potential to give the Buffalo defense some headaches if he’s cleared to make plays with his legs more than he did last season, and the 5.5-point spread in the Bills’ favor looks suspiciously small to me.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110)

• Bills are decent favorites at home, though I expected the spread to be a little wider.
• Cardinals’ inconsistencies make it likely the Bills cover this spread.
• If you think the new-look offense can gel quickly, take the Bills -5.5.

Moneyline: BUF -250 / ARI +205

• Bills at -250 offer low value unless you’re parlaying.
• Cardinals at +205 are tempting if you believe they can pull off an upset.
• Safer option is Bills spread rather than laying heavy juice on the moneyline.

Total: 48

• Both teams have offensive capabilities, but 48 is a high number.
• Lean towards the Under if you believe the Bills’ defense will limit the Cardinals.
• Both teams have firepower, so there is sneaky shootout potential.

Betting Trends:

• Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Cardinals.
• Arizona is just 2-10 straight up in their last 12 road games.
• Total has gone Over in 6 of the last 7 meetings between Buffalo and Arizona.

Prediction: Bills -5.5, Over 48
Best Bet: Bills -5.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears Odds 

The Bears are favored at home against the Titans, with Caleb Williams prepared for his NFL debut. The Bears look like one of the NFL’s most-improved teams, particularly on offense. In addition to Williams, Chicago also added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift in an attempt to overhaul what was a legitimately pathetic unit a season ago.

Tennessee’s offense, behind 2nd-year QB Will Levis, may struggle to keep pace with the new-look Bears. Tennessee did add a couple of veterans in receiver Calvin Ridley and running back Tony Pollard, though neither player is coming off of a particularly impressive 2023 season. Pollard struggled in his first season as the lead back in Dallas, though he’s expected to share the backfield with Tyjae Spears in Tennessee.

Levis showed some flashes in limited time under center as a rookie, and the jury is still out on whether he’s the long-term solution at the position for the Titans. It’s a bit shocking to see a team with a rookie QB listed as a massive -205 moneyline favorite in the first game of the season, but it’s likely justified given the question marks surrounding the Titans on both sides of the football.

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears Predictions

Spread: Bears -4.5 (-108)

• Bears are favored by 4.5 at home, a tricky number to cover.
• Titans are historically good at keeping games close, so beware of the spread.
• Take the Bears if you think they win comfortably, but there’s uncertainty here.

Moneyline: CHI -205 / TEN +170

• Bears at -205 are a little too expensive unless parlaying.
• Titans at +170 are solid value if you believe they can upset.
• Moneyline on Tennessee is worth considering for the higher reward.

Total: 43

• Middle-of-the-road total, but both teams have unproven offenses.
• Lean Under 43 unless you anticipate a higher-scoring game than expected.
• Over is possible if turnovers lead to extra points.

Betting Trends:

• 14 of the Titans’ last 20 games have gone Under.
• 7 of the Bears’ last 10 games have gone Under.
• Bears are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 home games.

Prediction: Bears -4.5, Under 43
Best Bet: Bears -4.5 (-108)

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds 

The Bengals enter Week 1 as heavy favorites over the Patriots. Joe Burrow’s offense should have no trouble moving the ball, while the Patriots may struggle offensively with their rebuilding unit. The 9-point spread in this one is the widest of Week 1, and it looks appropriate.

Jacoby Brissett was injured in New England’s final preseason game. Jerod Mayo previously indicated Brissett would begin the year as the QB1 over former No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye, though the injury throws a wrench into things. It’s also worth noting that Maye badly outplayed Brissett in the preseason, and the team clearly hopes he’ll become the future face of the franchise and ultimate heir to Tom Brady. Brissett would be a Band-Aid if he ultimately gets the nod.

Oddsmakers are high on the Bengals as bounce-back candidates after injuries derailed their 2023 campaign. Joe Burrow never looked quite right after suffering a calf injury in training camp, and he was ultimately lost for the season after tearing a ligament in his throwing wrist in November. Cincy is yet another team that made a change at running back, as longtime starter Joe Mixon was traded to Houston. Will the combination of Zack Moss and Chase Brown be enough to keep the offense balanced? Or will Burrow have even more responsibility on his shoulders?

Needless to say, New England going into Cincinnati and pulling off the win here would be quite the miracle, as indicated by their +350 moneyline odds.

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions

Spread: Bengals -9 (-112)

• Large spread, but the Bengals have the firepower to cover.
• Patriots will struggle to put points on the board, but large spreads carry risk.
• Consider Cincy to cover if you trust the Bengals’ offense to dominate.

Moneyline: CIN -455 / NE +350

• Bengals moneyline is very expensive; low return on investment.
• Patriots at +350 offer longshot value for a surprise upset, but hard to imagine this actually happening
• Avoid the moneyline and consider other bets unless you’re feeling frisky.

Total: 42

• Lower total suggests a defensive game.
• Lean Under if you expect the Bengals to control the game but not allow much scoring from the Patriots.
• Consider the over if you think the Bengals’ offense can put up points quickly.

Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. New England.
• Patriots are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
• Total has gone Over in 5 of the Bengals’ last 6 games.

Prediction: Bengals -9, Under 42
Best Bet: Bengals -9

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds 

Two AFC South rivals meet in Week 1. The Texans are slight favorites on the road, but with both teams coming off promising seasons, this game could go either way.

CJ Stroud vastly exceeded expectations as a rookie, leading Houston to an unexpected AFC South title and a playoff win over the Browns. The Texans‘ brass knows they have to try and build a competitive roster while Stroud is still on a rookie contract, so Houston was incredibly aggressive this offseason. Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Danielle Hunter, and Azeez Al-Shaair are among the big-name players now wearing Deep Steel Blue heading into 2024.

At the very least, this offense should be able to put points on the board in bunches. Between Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, you can easily argue the Texans have the best crop of receivers in football. Mix in the steady hands of Mixon and Dalton Schultz and Stroud has a terrific array of weapons at his disposal. If the offensive line can hold up after suffering an endless stream of injuries last season, Houston could be the real deal.

The Colts are less of a proven commodity, though they did finish just a game south of the Texans in the divisional race last season. Anthony Richardson played all of 4 games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, though he played well before going down. Richardson was an extremely raw passing prospect coming out of Florida, but the Colts saw enough potential to make him the 4th overall pick in the ’23 draft. Richardson scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in Indianapolis’ 31-20 win over the Texans in Houston in Week 3 last year.

Richardson has an underrated group of skill position players to work with, as well. Jonathan Taylor is potentially the NFL’s best running back if he can stay healthy, which is no small “if.” Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are solid young pass-catchers, while Indy also drafted ex-Texas standout Adonai Mitchell in the second round of April’s draft. With this game taking place in a dome, I think we’ll see some points put on the board.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

Spread: Texans -2 (-110)

• Close spread with Texans as slight favorites on the road.
• Texans are a risky pick with a narrow margin; Colts could keep it close.
• Consider passing on the spread if you’re not convinced about either team.

Moneyline: HOU -130 / IND +110

• Texans at -130 provide moderate value, but Colts at +110 offer upside for a home underdog win.
• Colts as a plus-money home ‘dog look like the better value.

Total: 49

• Relatively high total in a game that could turn into a track meet.
• Lean Over 49, as both teams look to be explosive offensively.

Betting Trends:

• Texans are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games vs. Indianapolis.
• Total has gone Over in 6 of the Colts’ last 10 games.
• 5 of the Colts’ last 6 home games have gone Over.

Prediction: Texans -2, Over 49
Best Bet: Over 49

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins Odds 

 
The Dolphins open as favorites at home in a Florida battle against the visiting Jaguars. This is another high-total game between a couple of potentially high-octane offenses. Jacksonville was a disappointment last year after entering the season with Super Bowl hopes out of the AFC, but there’s a chance they’re flying under the radar this time around with Houston generating most of the buzz out of the AFC South.

Miami was arguably the NFL’s most electrifying team last season, though that didn’t translate into playoff success. The Dolphins led the league with an average of 401.3 yards per game, and they also led the NFL in passing yards per game (265.5). Tyreek Hill came up short in his quest to top 2,000 receiving yards, but 1,799 yards with 13 touchdowns on 119 catches wasn’t too shabby. Miami also got a career year out of veteran running back Raheem Mostert, though explosive 2nd-year back De’Von Achane is expected to get a bigger workload this term.

The Jaguars added some depth in the receiving corps. Big-play threat Gabe Davis came over as a free agent from Buffalo, while Jacksonville also drafted speedster Brian Thomas Jr. out of LSU. Thomas was overshadowed by Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels in the Tigers’ offense last year, but he’ll be a useful red-zone target for Trevor Lawrence thanks to his 6’4″ frame.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (-105)

• Dolphins favored by a field goal plus a hook at home.
• Dolphins have the edge in talent, but the hook at -3.5 is tricky.
• Consider Miami if you believe they win comfortably.

Moneyline: MIA -180 / JAX +150

• Dolphins are reasonable favorites at -180.
• Jaguars at +150 offer value if you think they can pull off an upset.
• Moneyline on Miami is a safer bet for moderate returns.

Total: 49

• High total suggests confidence in offenses, but both teams have been inconsistent.
• Lean Over 49 given the big-play threats on both sides.
• Under might hit if both offenses falter, but that’s a riskier angle.

Betting Trends:

• Jaguars are 9-3 ATS over their last 12 road games.
• Total has gone Under in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games.
• Dolphins are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 games at home.

Prediction: Dolphins -3.5, Over 49
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 (-105)

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds 

The Saints start their season as 3.5-point favorites against the rebuilding Panthers. With no due respect to Vikings-Giants, this might actually be the worst game of the week. These two NFC South rivals may be the two worst teams in football. Unfortunately, we’ll have to watch them go toe-to-toe twice this season. In Week 2 last year, these teams played a horrific game in which the Saints prevailed by 3 points on Monday Night Football. For some reason, the dreadful feelings of watching that game are seared into my memory.

The Saints are running it back with Derek Carr and Dennis Allen. Carr was his perfectly mediocre self in his first season in New Orleans, and this offense as a whole looks awfully similar to the group we saw last season. Chris Olave has breakout potential, but the Saints have very little depth at receiver beyond the Ohio State product. If he goes down, Carr will have to rely on the likes of Cedrick Wilson, A.T. Perry, and Rashid Shaheed. Yikes!

Things don’t look much rosier in Carolina. Frank Reich didn’t even make it through his first season, and the team hired ex-Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales to take over this year. Bryce Young was abysmal as a rookie, and the Panthers didn’t give him a single rep in a game this preseason. Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette give Young a deeper receiving corps than he had a season ago, but I’m very skeptical that either player will be a transformative presence in what was a dismal offense in 2023.

Bryce Young will have his hands full with the Saints’ defense, while Derek Carr should be able to move the ball effectively at home. Expect a low-scoring affair with New Orleans controlling the pace of the game.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions

Spread: Saints –4 (-108)

• Saints favored at home, and rightfully so.
• Panthers could cover +4 if Young shows progress.
• If you’re confident in the Saints’ offense, lay the points.

Moneyline: NO -192 / CAR +160

• Saints’ moneyline at -192 provides moderate value for parlay use.
• Panthers at +160 offer decent underdog value if you expect an upset.
• Safer play might be Saints’ moneyline.

Total: 40

• The low total reflects anticipated struggles on offense.
• Lean Under 40 unless one team unexpectedly breaks through offensively.
• Consider the over only if you think the offenses will surprise.

Betting Trends:

• Panthers are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Saints are 11-4 straight up in their last 15 games vs. Panthers.
• Each of the last 7 meetings between New Orleans and Carolina have gone Under.

Prediction: Saints -3.5, Under 40
Best Bet: Under 40 (-112)

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants Odds 

The Vikings are narrow favorites on the road against the Giants. Both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing showings last year.

Both teams will look different offensively. Kirk Cousins is now in Atlanta, which means Sam Darnold is set to take over under center in Minnesota. The team used its first-round pick on Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. This will be Darnold’s show to run, and we’ll see if he can quickly develop chemistry with Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. Darnold hasn’t been a regular NFL starter in several years, but the former No. 3 overall pick is still only 27.

The Giants lost Saquon Barkley to the Eagles, and they never really addressed his departure in the draft or free agency. Daniel Jones is back after an injury-shortened 2023 season, and he’ll be under the microscope as he enters the 2nd season of the massive extension he signed prior to last year. New York’s offense has been dismal for years, but Jones hasn’t had an elite crop of receivers, by any means. The G-Men hope former LSU standout Malik Nabers will provide a much-needed spark, but I’m still concerned about the potential for the running game to struggle.

This is one of the uglier games on the Week 1 schedule. Neither team is expected to make a real push for the playoffs, and the 41.5 over/under is among the lowest on the slate.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants Predictions

Spread: Vikings -1 (-108)

• Essentially a pick’em game with Vikings favored slightly.
• Vikings have more talent, so betting them to win by a point is understandable.
• Spread is negligible, so it’s almost like a moneyline bet on the Vikings.

Moneyline: MIN -118 / NYG +102

• Vikings offer decent value at -118, especially in a game this close.
• Giants at +102 provide slight underdog value but are not as reliable.
• Taking the Vikings on the moneyline offers better value for a close game.

Total: 41.5

• Low total suggests a defensive game.
• Lean Under if you expect a low-scoring battle.
• Consider the over only if you think the game opens up unexpectedly.

Betting Trends:

• Minnesota has failed to cover the spread in any of their last 6 games (0-4-2).
• 4 of the Vikings’ last 5 games have gone Over.
• 12 of the Giants’ last 18 games have gone Under.

Prediction: Vikings -1, Under 41.5 
Best Bet: Under 41.5 (112)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds 

The Falcons are slight favorites at home against a weird Steelers squad. Atlanta’s defense is still unproven, while the Pittsburgh defense is their strong suit.

Atlanta’s offense has some promising young pieces in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith failed to capitalize on that talent, though, which is why the Falcons got rid of them both this offseason. Enter veteran QB Kirk Cousins, who at least gives the Falcons a proven commodity at the position. Raheem Morris will replace Smith on the sidelines after a successful stint as the Rams’ defensive coordinator under Sean McVay.

The Steelers are a question mark. Pittsburgh quietly won 10 games and punched a playoff ticket last year, though they may have benefited from some good fortune. The team brought Justin Fields and Russell Wilson in over the offseason, and we still don’t know which veteran will start in Atlanta. Fields showed some of the same weaknesses he did in Chicago during the preseason, while Wilson is fresh off of a pair of underwhelming seasons in Denver.

I have questions about both teams, but I feel a bit more confident in the Falcons’ upside. I’m not at all convinced that Pittsburgh will be able to keep up offensively as a result of the unsettled QB situation.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

Spread: Falcons -3 (-108)

• Falcons are favored by a field goal at home.
• The Falcons have been inconsistent, but Cousins should bring stability.
• Consider taking the Steelers +3 if you expect a close contest or outright upset.

Moneyline: ATL -155 / PIT +130

• Falcons at -155 are moderate favorites with risk due to their inconsistency.
• Steelers at +130 have some underdog value.
• If unsure about the spread, the Steelers moneyline could provide a better value.

Total: 41

• Low total suggests a defensive game or lack of offensive firepower.
• Lean Under 41 if you anticipate a grinding, low-scoring game.

Betting Trends:

• 5 of the Steelers’ last 6 games have gone Over.
• Pittsburgh is 13-1-1 in their last 15 head-to-head matchups vs. Atlanta.
• Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Prediction: Falcons -3, Under 41
Best Bet: Falcons -3 (-108)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds 

The Chargers open as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. These longtime AFC West rivals are both in transitional phases. The Raiders decided to hire Antonio Pierce as the permanent head coach this offseason after he provided a spark after the team canned Josh McDaniels last year. The Chargers made a splashier hire as they paid Jim Harbaugh to leave his alma mater to return to the NFL on the heels of winning a national title at Michigan.

Harbaugh is a defensive-minded coach despite having been an NFL quarterback during his playing days. Justin Herbert is one of the game’s most promising young QBs, but he’ll have his work cut out for him this year. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler have all moved on, which leaves Herbert as the last man standing from what was once a promising offense. LA imported the Ravens’ old backfield by bringing in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins as free agents. What may be more problematic is the receiving corps. Quentin Johnston sure looks like a massive bust after struggling as a rookie last year. The Bolts are leaning on Johnston, Joshua Palmer, and Ladd McConkey to anchor what looks like a very lackluster passing attack.

The Raiders dumped Jimmy Garoppolo after his failed lone season in Sin City. Veteran Gardner Minshew beat Aidan O’Connell out for the QB1 job in camp, so he’ll be under center at SoFI Stadium for this one. Vegas also let Josh Jacobs walk as a free agent, though his replacement, Zamir White, showed flashes after finally getting a few opportunities in 2023. The Raiders’ defense is a question mark every season, but motivation shouldn’t be an issue with the popular Pierce patrolling the sidelines.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions

Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-108)

• The Chargers are favored by a field goal plus the hook at home.
• The Raiders could keep it close, so the +3.5 might be appealing for them.
• If you believe the Chargers can win comfortably, lay the points.

Moneyline: LA -175 / LV +145

• Chargers at -175 provide some value but aren’t risk-free.
• Raiders at +145 offer solid underdog value in a game that could go either way.
• Moneyline on the Raiders is worth considering if you’re looking for value in a close game.

Total: 42.5

• Mid-range total suggests both teams can score, but not a shootout.
• Lean towards the Under 42.5 if you think the offenses could struggle to move the football.
• Under could hit if the game turns into a defensive battle or if turnovers kill drives.

Betting Trends:

• Total has gone Under in 12 of the Raiders’ last 18 games.
• Las Vegas is 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games away from home.
• 7 of the last 8 meetings between the Chargers and Raiders have gone Under.

Prediction: Raiders +3.5 (-112), Under 42.5
Best Bet: Raiders ML (+145)

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds 

Seattle comes into this Week 1 game against Denver as a 5-point favorite at home. Sean Payton’s Broncos finally put an end to the failed Russell Wilson experiment this offseason, and rookie QB Bo Nix won the starting job after an impressive preseason performance.

The Broncos raised some eyebrows around the league when they grabbed Nix with the No. 10 overall pick. He is fresh off of a very productive senior season at Oregon, and he was exceptional when he got the chance to play in the preseason. He completed 23 of his 30 passes for 205 yards and a pair of TDs in limited preseason duty, though he’ll have to make his NFL debut in one of the league’s toughest road environments at Lumen Field.

The Seahawks parted ways with longtime head coach Pete Carroll this offseason. In to replace him is former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who will be tasked with improving what was one of the NFL’s leakiest defenses a season ago. Seattle should be able to put points on the board given their impressive array of skill position talent, but keeping their opponents from doing the same will be the key to their long-term success.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks Predictions

Spread: Seahawks -5 (-112)

• Seahawks are the home favorites against a rookie QB.
• Broncos have been inconsistent, but +5 is a tough number to bet against.
• If you trust the Seahawks to win by a touchdown, go with the spread. If you’re unsure, consider the Broncos to cover.

Moneyline: SEA -218 / DEN +180

• Seahawks moneyline at -218 is a bit steep unless you’re adding it to a parlay.
• Broncos at +180 offer solid value if you believe they can pull off an upset.
• Seahawks moneyline is safer but offers low value unless combined with other bets.

Total: 42

• Mid-range total suggests some points will be scored, but not a shootout.
• Lean Under 42 if you expect a defensive battle or Denver to struggle.

Betting Trends:

• 11 of the last 15 meetings between the Broncos and Seahawks in Seattle have gone Under.
• Denver has won 13 of the last 19 matchups vs. Seattle overall.
• Seahawks are 12-6 straight up in their last 18 games in September.

Prediction: Seahawks -5, Under 42
Best Bet: Seahawks -5 (-112) 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns Odds 

This looks like one of the more entertaining matchups of Week 1. The Cowboys are fresh off of an NFC East title, though Dallas has done very little this offseason to improve its roster on the heels of an embarrassing home playoff loss to Green Bay. Dallas did sign CeeDee Lamb to a lucrative new contract extension, however, so he’ll be on the field in Cleveland after missing the entirety of training camp.

The ‘Boys are slight road underdogs in Week 1 with the Browns favored by a bit less than a field goal at home. Cleveland made the playoffs last year despite an injury-riddled season for QB Deshaun Watson. Kevin Stefanski took home Coach of the Year honors after leading the Browns to a Wild Card berth with Joe Flacco under center down the stretch of the campaign.

Watson is back after undergoing shoulder surgery, while Nick Chubb will miss the beginning of the year as he continues to recover from the devastating knee injury he sustained in Week 2 of last season. Defense is the Browns’ calling card, and the matchup between their stifling D and the high-powered Cowboys offense should be fun to watch. Myles Garrett won the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award last season, and he could wreak havoc on a slightly retooled Dallas offensive line.

Will the Cowboys get anything out of their run game? Tony Pollard is gone, while Ezekiel Elliott is back and expected to begin the year as the starter. Elliott is well past the prime of his career, and there’s a chance the Cowboys will bring in another veteran – Dalvin Cook? – to compete for carries. Dak Prescott may have to carry this offense assuming Zeke doesn’t have much left in the tank.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns Predictions 

Spread: Browns -2.5 (-108)

• Browns are home favorites by under a field goal.
• The Cowboys have more than enough talent to cover or win outright in a close contest.
• If you’re not convinced the Browns will win by at least 3, consider taking the Cowboys with the points.

Moneyline: CLE -135 / DAL +114

• Browns at -135 provide moderate value for a home favorite.
• Cowboys at +114 offer good underdog value if you believe they can win.
• If you like the Cowboys, the moneyline might be the better play.

Total: 43

• Both teams have offensive firepower, but the total reflects potential defensive play as well.
• Lean Over 43 if you expect both offenses to perform well.

Betting Trends:

• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
• Dallas has won 4 of the last 5 meetings vs. Cleveland straight up.
• Total has gone Under in 12 of the Browns’ last 17 games vs. NFC teams.

Prediction: Cowboys +2.5, Under 43
Best Bet: Cowboys ML (+114)

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds 

The Buccaneers are favorites at home against the Commanders. Tampa Bay will rely on their experienced defense and efficient offense to get past Washington. Baker Mayfield surprised many with a resurgent campaign in his first season with Tampa Bay, and the team rewarded him with a new contract this offseason.

Was last year a flash in the pan? Or is Baker worth building around? Mike Evans and Chris Godwin form the best receiving duo Mayfield has ever played with since coming to the NFL, so perhaps his breakout was no fluke. The Bucs also got a solid season from young running back Rachaad White, who came close to 1,000 yards rushing while scoring 9 total touchdowns.

The Commanders are still in rebuild mode and could struggle to keep pace with Tampa Bay. Washington does finally have a promising young quarterback in former Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, who will start in Week 1 after dominating last year at LSU. The question is whether the Commanders have enough talent around him to make a dark-horse playoff run in the NFC.

Austin Ekeler is in Washington now after starring for the Chargers for years, but he looked a little washed last season. Daniels’ own rushing ability should be put to good use, but he has few proven pass-catchers other than Terry McLaurin in the passing attack.

The 3-point spread indicates oddsmakers aren’t quite sold on the Bucs, but I think they’re undervalued.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-108)

• Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home.
• Not sure a rebuilding Washington defense can keep up with the Tampa Bay offense.
• Consider the Bucs if you expect them to win comfortably at home.

Moneyline: TB -162 / WAS +136

• Buccaneers at -162 offer decent value for a home team.
• Commanders at +136 provide solid underdog potential if you believe they can pull off the upset.
• Buccaneers moneyline is a safer choice, but the Commanders’ moneyline could be worth the risk if you’re feeling confident.

Total: 42.5

• Total suggests a moderate scoring game.
• Lean Under 42.5 if you expect a defensive contest or conservative play.
• Over could hit if both offenses find their rhythm and defenses struggle.

Betting Trends:

• Commanders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
• Washington is 1-5 in their last 6 road games straight up.
• Buccaneers are 6-2 straight up in their last 8 games.

Prediction: Buccaneers -3, Under 42.5
Best Bet: Buccaneers -3 (-108)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Odds 

The Lions come in as favorites at home against the Rams in the first Sunday Night Football extravaganza of 2024. This game has the highest total on the board at 51 points. This is a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Round of the playoffs when the Lions escaped with a narrow 24-23 triumph.

Detroit’s offense, led by former Ram Jared Goff, should take advantage of a weakened Rams defense. Aaron Donald retired during the offseason, which will likely leave a gaping hole in the middle of the LA defensive line. Detroit was one of the NFL’s most prolific rushing attacks last season with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and I’d expect more of the same this season.

The Rams needn’t be overlooked, though. Cooper Kupp is back healthy after battling injuries a season ago, and he pairs with Puka Nacua to form arguably the league’s best receiver tandem. Matthew Stafford showed last season he still has something left in the tank, and the Lions’ defense is hardly a proven commodity.

I think this one is a potential shootout, and I love the value on the Rams to pull the upset away from home.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Predictions 

Spread: DET Lions -3.5

• Rams could keep it close, making +3.5 a tempting bet if you believe in their offense to keep pace.
• Tough to expect a blowout in either direction in a matchup between 2 capable team.s

Moneyline: DET -180 / LA +150

• Lions at -180 are priced fairly for a home favorite.
• Rams at +150 offer solid value for an underdog win.
• Moneyline on the Rams could be the best play if you think they can surprise the Lions.

Total: 51

• High total suggests a potential shootout.
• Lean Over 51 if you expect a back-and-forth scoring affair.

Betting Trends:

• Rams have won 7 of their last 8 games straight up.
• Los Angeles is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 matchups vs. Detroit.
• Over has hit in 9 of the Lions’ last 12 games.

Prediction: Rams +3.5, Over 51
Best Bet: Rams ML (+145)

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds 

The 49ers are favored by 4 points at home against the Jets in the final matchup of Week 1, which takes place on Monday Night Football.

Aaron Rodgers is expected to return for this game after missing the vast majority of last season with an Achilles injury. There’s no telling how the 40-year-old will fare at this age following the devastating injury, but hopes are again high in New York.

The 4-point spread here looks a little curious with the stacked Niners coming in as fairly light favorites. There’s lots of uncertainty surrounding the Jets, and it has to do entirely with Rodgers. If the multi-time MVP winner can replicate his younger form, New York could push for an AFC East title. If he struggles to rebound from the injury, however, this offense could be stuck in the mud once again.

The 49ers, of course, are fresh off of another Super Bowl appearance. They came up just shy of a title yet again, and Kyle Shanahan and co. will run it back and give it another go this year. San Francisco still boasts what may be the deepest all-around roster in the sport with Brock Purdy pulling the strings on offense.

Motivation shouldn’t be a problem for the Niners as they continue to hunt for their first Super Bowl title since the mid-1990s. The -198 moneyline doesn’t offer much value, but I like them to cover at home.

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions

Spread: SF 49ers -4 (-108)

• Jets are something of a wild card, so +4 could be a good play if you think they’ll be competitive.
• I’m more confident in what we know, which is that the Niners are a Super Bowl contender.

Moneyline: SF -198 / NYJ +164

• 49ers at -198 are heavy favorites, making the moneyline a bit expensive.
• Jets at +164 offer decent underdog value, but they’re a riskier play.
• Safer play is the 49ers spread, but if you’re willing to take a risk, the Jets moneyline could be worth a look.

Total: 44

• Moderate total suggests a balanced game.
• Lean Under 44 if you expect a defensive struggle or conservative play from both sides.
• Consider the over if you anticipate both offenses performing better than expected.

Betting Trends:

• Jets have covered the spread just twice in their last 10 games.
• New York is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. San Francisco.
• 49ers have failed to cover the spread in any of their last 7 games at home.

Prediction: 49ers -4, Under 44
Best Bet: 49ers -4 (-108)

NFL Week 1 Best Bets 

After breaking down the matchups, here are my favorite bets for Week 1 of the NFL season:

• 49ers -4 (-108)
• Buccaneers -3 (-108)
• Cowboys ML (+114)

Betting on these three games individually offers solid value, but consider parlaying them for a larger payout. A $100 wager combining these 3 game bets into a parlay would pay out $693.75 if it hits.