2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Basketball Odds and Predictions

The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics are right around the corner. The festivities will officially get underway on July 26th. One of the more fascinating events to follow should be the men’s basketball competition.

The Olympic field is officially set. The men’s basketball odds are also out at top sports betting sites, and fans and bettors alike are keen to see which team will take home the gold medal. Below, we break down the odds for each team participating in the tournament and analyze their chances of winning the gold.

Olympic Men’s Basketball Odds

USA (-390)

The USA is the clear favorite to win the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics with odds of -390. This means, if you were betting on the Olympics, to win $100, you would need to bet $390. Not great!

The USA’s dominance in international basketball is well-documented, and this year they once again boast a roster packed with NBA talent. LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Edwards are just a few of the NBA All-Stars populating the Americans’ roster. This year will also mark the Team USA debut for Joel Embiid, who joined the team after becoming a US citizen back in September of 2022.

Clearly, this is the strongest team in the field. However, amassing the most talented roster doesn’t always translate to a gold medal. That said, this has been an incredibly dominant Olympic team since they started using NBA players back in the 1992 Barcelona games. Since then, Team USA has claimed the gold in 7 of the 8 Summer Olympics. The only exception was in 2004 when the Americans disappointingly accepted the bronze medal. Argentina won the gold that year, while Italy took home the silver.

While there are some new faces, this isn’t the first Olympic rodeo for players like James, Durant, Curry, and Anthony Davis. One potential issue at the 2020 games for Team USA was a lack of size, but the addition of Embiid gives this team a much more formidable interior presence on both ends of the floor.

The issue, of course, is the odds. You’re not making any money betting them at -390. The Americans haven’t been immune from upsets over the years, so there could be some value in betting on some of the long shots instead.

Canada (+900)

Canada comes in with odds of +900, indicating a strong but less certain chance compared to the USA. A $100 bet on Canada would yield a $900 profit if they win gold. The Canadian roster has been steadily improving over the years, thanks in large part to the influx of Canadian talent on NBA teams. Players like Jamal Murray and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bring a high level of skill and leadership to the team.

Canada’s strength lies in their guard play and perimeter shooting. They can stretch the floor and create mismatches with their speed and athleticism. However, they lack the depth and experience of teams like the USA. For Canada to win gold, they will need to play nearly flawless basketball and get contributions from their entire roster. They are a dark horse with a real shot at upsetting the favorites if everything falls into place.

If there were a Most Improved Team award, it would likely go to Canada. In addition to SGA and Murray, this team also includes legit NBA contributors like RJ Barrett, Kyle Anderson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dillon Brooks, and Lu Dort. While that’s a lot of recognizable names, it’s also fair to point out that Gilgeous-Alexander and Murray are likely the only members of the Canadian team who would also draw serious consideration for the USA roster were they Americans. While the USA roster is laden with All-Stars, Team Canada features a lot more NBA-caliber role players.

Of course, talent doesn’t always win out. Canada’s wealth of capable perimeter defenders could make life difficult on the USA in a hypothetical matchup. On the other end of the floor, though, Canada will also likely have a difficult time countering the Americans’ wealth of scoring options.

Another issue is that Canada will appear in Group A, which looks like the strongest first-round group at the competition. They’ll have to get past Spain, Greece, and Australia in order to advance. While Canada will likely be favored against all of those teams, all 3 have been basketball powerhouses over the years.

France (+1000)

France, with odds of +1000, is another strong contender for the gold medal. A $100 bet on France would result in a $1000 profit. The French team has been a consistent force in international basketball, known for their disciplined defense and team-oriented play.

One potential wild card in this tournament is Victor Wembanyama. The reining NBA Rookie of the Year will play for France this summer. Between Wemby and Rudy Gobert, the French feature a 1-2 punch in the frontcourt that will be difficult for opposing teams to deal with. Good luck scoring down low with Wembanyama and Gobert patrolling the paint.

France’s strength is their defensive capability, anchored by Gobert, a multiple-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Their ability to disrupt opponents and control the paint makes them a tough matchup for any team. Offensively, they rely on ball movement and balanced scoring. For France to win gold, they will need to execute their game plan flawlessly and get significant contributions from their bench. They have the talent and experience to challenge the top teams.

Let’s also not forget that these Olympics will take place in Paris, so France will have home-court advantage throughout the Games. In addition to the aforementioned bigs, France also features NBA veterans Evan Fournier, Nicolas Batum, and Nando De Colo. One potential X-factor could be Bilal Coulibaly, a hyper-athletic wing who showed promise last season as a rookie for the Washington Wizards.

It’ll be fascinating to see how opposing defenses deal with Wembanyama, who may be the single most unguardable player on earth at this point. If his teammates can consistently knock down their open 3-pointers, France makes for a very compelling long-shot wager at the +1000 Olympic odds.

Serbia (+1300)

Serbia, with odds of +1300, presents an intriguing option for bettors. A $100 bet on Serbia would net $1300 if they win the gold. The Serbian team has a rich history in international basketball, known for their skillful play and tactical acumen. Led by ex-NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, Serbia has the star power to compete with any team in the tournament.

Serbia’s strength lies in their offensive versatility and basketball IQ. Jokic’s unique skill set as a playmaking center allows them to run their offense through him, creating opportunities for their shooters and slashers. However, their defense can be a weakness, especially against more athletic teams. For Serbia to win gold, they will need to maximize their offensive efficiency and find ways to shore up their defensive shortcomings. They are a legitimate contender with the potential to surprise many.

Jokic’s presence alone is enough to put Serbia in the medal conversation, though the team’s lack of depth could prove costly against deeper teams. The only other NBA-caliber players beyond Jokic on the roster are Bogdan Bogdanovic, Vasilije Micic, Nikola Jovic, and Aleksej Pokusevski. Micic, Jovic, and Pokusevski have been fringe players at the NBA level to this point in their respective careers.

Is Jokic good enough to drag Serbia to the medal stand? Certainly. I’m just not convinced this team has enough firepower beyond the Nuggets’ mega-star to give a team like the US much of a sweat. They will likely emerge from Group C, however. While they’ll have to deal with Team USA, Serbia will also get to face a couple of extreme long-shots in Puerto Rico and South Sudan.

Greece (+1900)

Greece, with odds of +1900, is a long shot but not to be underestimated. A $100 bet on Greece would return $1,900 if they win the gold. The Greek team is headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the best players in the world. His presence alone makes Greece a team to watch.

Overall, though, this looks like a situation similar to the one Jokic faces with Serbia. If opposing defenses focus all of their efforts on stopping Giannis, who else in a Greek uniform is capable enough to step up and make them pay? Greece does have a surprisingly rich basketball history, but guard play could be an issue. Americans Thomas Walkup and Nick Calathes are on this team, and those guys aren’t scaring anybody.

Greece’s strength is their ability to play through Giannis, whose combination of size, speed, and skill is unmatched. However, their supporting cast lacks the depth and talent of other top teams. Greece will need to play exceptional team defense and get consistent contributions from their role players to make a deep run. They are a high-risk, high-reward bet with the potential to pull off a Cinderella story at +1900.

Germany (+2800)

Germany, with odds of +2800, is another dark horse in the tournament. A $100 bet on Germany would result in a $2800 profit if they win gold. The German team is anchored by NBA talent such as Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner, providing them with the skill and leadership needed to compete.

It’s interesting to see the Germans with such long odds considering this team won the FIBA World Cup just last year. Germany got past Latvia, the United States, and Serbia en route to an unexpected title. Schroder took home tournament MVP honors for his efforts, and he’s expected to lead the Germans into battle this summer, too.

Germany’s strength is their balanced attack and solid fundamentals. They play a disciplined style of basketball, focusing on ball movement and efficient scoring. However, their lack of star power compared to teams like the USA and Serbia can be a disadvantage. For Germany to win gold, they will need to play cohesively and get standout performances from their key players. As we saw just last year, they are a team capable of making a deep run if everything clicks.

Australia (+4500)

Australia, with odds of +4500, offers a significant payout for bettors. A $100 bet on Australia would pay back $4,500 if they win gold. The Australian team has been a consistent performer in international competitions, known for their toughness and team chemistry.

Australia’s strength lies in their defensive tenacity and unselfish play. Players like Patty Mills and Joe Ingles bring experience and leadership to the team. The issue, of course, is these are old NBA role players at this point. Mills is 35. Ingles is 36. This team does have a few exciting athletes in Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, and Josh Giddey, but their chances of making a run will likely hinge on their ability to get easy buckets in transition.

However, their lack of depth and elite talent can be a hindrance. For the Boomers to win gold, they will need to play at their highest level and get significant contributions from their entire roster. They are a team that can surprise if they hit their stride at the right time, though they’re far from my favorite sleeper bet on the board. They took home the bronze in Tokyo back in 2020, but I think they’re trending in the wrong direction.

Spain (+5000)

Spain, with odds of +5000, is a team that should not be overlooked. A $100 bet on Spain would yield a $5,000 profit if they win gold. The Spanish team has a storied history in international basketball, known for their skillful play and experienced roster.

While Spain has been a basketball powerhouse for years, this team may be going through a transitional phase right now. Old mainstays like the Gasol brothers and Ricky Rubio have all retired from professional play. This year’s team is still relying on aging stars like Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Llull, both of whom are in the twilight of their respective careers. Juancho and Willy Hernangomez are names that will stand out to NBA fans, while the Grizzlies’ Santi Aldama is the only active NBA player expected to be on the roster.

At this point, Spain’s +5000 odds to take home the gold are a result of the program’s rich history in international competition. The 2024 Spanish squad isn’t remotely as dangerous as the side that took home the bronze back in 2016.

Brazil (+10000)

Brazil, with odds of +10000, is a long shot to win the gold. A $100 bet on Brazil would result in a hefty $10,000 profit if they pull off the upset. The Brazilian team is known for their athleticism and fast-paced style of play.

This team is hardly full of household names, however. Leandro Barbosa and Nene ain’t walking through that door. Former NBAer Bruno Caboclo may be the most recognizable player on the current roster. Brazil advanced along with Spain through Group G play at last year’s FIBA World Cup, but they disappointed by finishing dead-last in Group L in the following round.

Brazil’s strength is their ability to score in transition and create havoc on defense. However, they lack the depth and consistency of the top teams. For Brazil to win gold, they will need to play nearly perfect basketball and get standout performances from their key players. They are a high-risk bet with a potential for a massive payout.

Puerto Rico (+30000)

Puerto Rico, with odds of +30000, is one of the biggest long shots in the tournament. New Orleans Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado is the face of the upstart Puerto Rican side. Alvarado put up a dominant line of 23 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and an assist in 25 minutes of action as Puerto Rico topped Lithuania, 79-68, to clinch a spot at this summer’s Games.

Puerto Rico will end a 20-year Olympics drought this summer in Paris. Alvarado is the unquestioned leader of the team both on and off the floor, while former LSU standout Tremont Waters will bring a useful scoring punch at the other guard spot. Beating Lithuania – led by Domantas Sabonis – is no small feat.

Puerto Rico’s strength is their ability to play with intensity and hustle. However, they lack the talent and depth of the top teams. For Puerto Rico to win gold, they will need to play above their abilities and get career-best performances from their key players. They are a high-risk bet with a slim chance of a massive payout.

Puerto Rico faces very long odds not only to win a medal, but to even advance out of Group C. With matchups against the United States and Serbia looming, this team could face a quick exit on the heels of their remarkable qualification run.

South Sudan (+40000)

South Sudan, with odds of +40000, is the ultimate underdog in the tournament. A $100 bet on South Sudan would result in a $40,000 profit if they win gold. The South Sudanese team is a newcomer to the international stage, known for their raw talent and athleticism.

Needless to say, this team isn’t full of familiar faces. Bol Bol is here, as is Wenyen Gabriel, Carlik Jones, Thon Maker, and JT Thor. If you recognize all of those players, congrats, you spend far too much time following the NBA.

South Sudan’s strength is their potential and athleticism. However, their lack of experience and cohesion can be a significant disadvantage. For South Sudan to win gold, they will need to play beyond their years and get standout performances from their young stars. South Sudan will compete in Group C, which also features the USA, Serbia, and Puerto Rico.

Japan (+50000)

Japan, with odds of +50000, is another long shot in the tournament. A $100 bet on Japan would yield a $50,000 profit if they win gold. You know what sounds pretty good? Winning $50,000. The Japanese team is known for their speed and three-point shooting.

Japan’s strength is their ability to play fast and shoot from the perimeter. However, they lack the size and depth of the top teams. For Japan to win gold, they will need to play near-perfect basketball and get hot from beyond the arc.

Who Will Win the Gold Medal?

As we analyze the odds and strengths of each team, it becomes clear that the USA is the favorite for a reason. Their depth, talent, and experience make them the team to beat. However, the competition is fierce, and teams like Canada, France, and Serbia have the potential to challenge for the gold.

Canada’s rising talent and cohesive play make them an intriguing bet, especially with their favorable odds. France’s disciplined defense and experienced roster also present a strong case for a potential upset. Serbia, led by the exceptional Nikola Jokic, has the star power to compete with any team.

In conclusion, while the USA is the safest bet, teams like Canada and France offer better value for bettors looking for a higher payout. Serbia also presents an interesting option with their unique style of play. Ultimately, betting on the Olympics requires balancing the odds with the potential for an upset. My favorite bet, considering both the odds and team potential, is France at +1000, offering a good balance of risk and reward.

The French will have home-court advantage throughout the tournament, and I’ll be fascinated to see how opposing teams deal with the Wembanyama-Gobert frontcourt tandem.

Olympics Bet: France (+1000)