2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Swimming Odds and Predictions

Swimming at the 2024 Paris Olympics, is scheduled to run from July 27 to August 9. These competitions will be held at the Paris La Defense Arena, which is also the home for Olympics Water Polo.  

Summer Olympics swimming consists of 37 medal events spanning across the men’s and women’s competitions. That total is the second highest among all sports. Olympics Athletics has the most events at 48, which includes popular disciplines like track and field.  

Since the Modern Olympics began in 1896, swimming has been a part of every Summer Games. However, women’s swimming events didn’t start until 1912.  

If you are looking to bet on the Olympics, keep reading below as we dive into the latest Paris Games Men’s Swimming odds and make our Summer Olympics Men’s Swimming predictions.  

Paris Olympics Men’s Swimming Events

Both the men and the women will have 18 events apiece, in addition to one mixed event. The following men’s swimming events will occur at the Paris Games: 

• Backstroke: 100, 200 

• Breaststroke: 100, 200 

• Butterfly: 100, 200 

• Freestyle: 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1500 

• Individual Medley: 200, 400 

• Relays: 4×100 free, 4×200 free 

• Marathon: 10km 

Paris Olympics Men’s Swimming Odds

Check out the latest Paris Olympics Men’s Swimming odds courtesy of the best sports betting sites:  

Men’s 50m Freestyle

• Cameron McEvoy (AUS) -125 

• Caeleb Dressel (USA) +250 

• Ben Proud (GBR) +350 

• Vladyslav Bukhov (UKR) +700 

• Joshua Liendo (CAN) +1400 

• Florent Manaudou (FRA) +1400 

Just like with the women’s swimming competitions, Australia and America will also battle it out in the men’s events as well. However, this event is all about Caeleb Dressel despite how well Cameron McEvoy has been swimming over the last year.  

Dressel seemingly walked away from swimming two years ago, and many wondered if he would even try to compete in the Paris Olympics. Well, Dressel answered that question posting a 21.41 time at the U.S. Olympic Trials. Dressel won five gold medals in Tokyo. In the 50m free, he crushed the field by almost a half second. In fact, his Trials time last month could’ve won gold in Tokyo.  

Cameron McEvoy put up a 21.13 time earlier this year and has looked phenomenal this season. This will be his fourth Olympic appearance and the Australian is coming off a dominant World Championship victory last year.  

Call me a sucker for American legend, and a great comeback story, but I’m taking Dressel to pull off the upset and win the 50m freestyle for the second straight Olympics.  

Bet: Caeleb Dressel (USA) +250 

Men’s 100m Backstroke

• Ryan Murphy (USA) +200  

• Thomas Ceccon (ITA) +250  

• Jiayu Xu (CHN) +350  

• Apostolos Christou (GRE) +600  

• Hunter Armstrong (USA) +800  

• Oliver Morgan (GBR) +1400 

At Tokyo, American swimmer Ryan Murphy took the bronze in this event. Italy’s Thomas Ceccon finished fourth. The two Russian swimmers who won gold and silver at Tokyo, aren’t even in the field for Paris. Since then, it’s been Murphy and Ceccon as the top two swimmers in the world for the 100m backstroke. 

Ceccon beat Murphy at the 2022 World Championships, but it was Murphy who won in 2023, just edging out the Italian. Xu was third in 2023, behind Ceccon and Murphy. He’s also posting some of the fastest times this year a 52:39 seconds.  

There are numerous men in this field that have finished below 53 seconds, so it’s going to be a highly competitive event. However, Murphy and Ceccon should duel for the gold.  

The American starts strong and has a great turn, but Ceccon has an elite finish. The race winner will win by just a few hundredths of a second over the second-place swimmer. Right now, Murphy appears to be the faster of the two with a 52:22 time at the U.S. Trials. That’s the best mark of the year so far.  

Bet: Ryan Murphy (USA) +200 

Men’s 100m Breaststroke

• Haiyang Qin (CHN) +100 

• Adam Peaty (GBR) +120 

• Nic Fink (USA) +700 

• Evgenii Somov (AIN) +1400 

• Jiajun Sun (CHN) +1400 

• Arno Kamminga (NED) +1600 

• Sam Williamson (AUS) +1600 

• Nicolo Martinenghi (ITA) +2000 

The 100m breaststroke is going to be an epic battle between Haiyang Qin and Adam Peaty. These are the two best in the world, and the two fastest of all-time. If you want speed and drama, this is the race for you. 

Peaty is returning for his third Olympics having won 100m breaststroke gold in Tokyo and Rio. He has five Olympic medals to his name with three golds and two silvers as he also competed in the relays.  

Over the last year or so, Peaty was burnt-out on swimming and seemed to be done just like Dressel. That was until early this year when he finished with a 57.94 time at the British Championships in April. That’s the only sub-58 second time this year.  

While Peaty was on the sidelines dealing with health issues and a lack of desire to compete again, Qin emerged as the best in the world. In the 2023 World Championships, Qin won the 50, 100 and 200 meter breaststroke events. He finished with the second fastest time ever for both the 50 and 100 meter events. He also finished with the world record for the 200m event. 

In the 100m, Qin’s fastest time this year is 58:24. His best time ever is 57.69 seconds. Yet, Peaty’s world record mark is 56.88 seconds. In fact, his four fastest times ever, are still better than Qin’s personal record. I see a “three-peaty” in this event, as Great Britain’s Peaty wins the gold medal for the third straight Olympics.  

Bet: Adam Peaty (GBR) +120 

Men’s 100m Butterfly

• Josh Liendo (CAN) +250  

• Caeleb Dressel (USA) +250  

• Noe Ponti (SUI) +400  

• Matthew Temple (AUS) +400  

• Maxime Grousset (FRA) +450 

Caeleb Dressel holds the world record for the 100m butterfly at 49.45 seconds. He set that mark at the Tokyo Olympics. Since then, nobody has even posted a sub-50 second time. There have been numerous times set between a half second to a full second slower than the world record, which means that this event will have some serious competition for the gold medal.  

As you can see above, five swimmers are all listed with odds very close to each other. Maxime Grousset won the worlds last year with a 50.14 time. Canada’s Josh Liendo posted a 50.06 mark at the Canadian Olympic Trials this year. Noe Ponti was the bronze winner in Tokyo and set a 50.16 mark this April. And Matt Temple’s best time is 50.25 seconds.  

Dressel, in his comeback from a lengthy hiatus, posted a time of 50.19 seconds at the U.S. Trials. So, the seven-time Olympic gold medalist looks poised to successfully defend his Tokyo gold in this event.  

We’re going to see some serious firepower between Liendo and Dressel. However, I’m taking the American to pull off his best time since Tokyo by swimming sub-50 seconds.  

Bet: Caeleb Dressel (USA) +250 

Men’s 100m Freestyle

• Zhanle Pan (CHN) -125 

• David Popovici (ROU) +200 

• Jack Alexy (USA) +500 

• Kyle Chalmers (AUS) +750 

• Chris Guiliano (USA) +1000 

• Maxime Grousset (FRA) +1600 

Despite some strong swimmers taking their lanes in this event, the 100m freestyle should come down to China’s Pan Zhanle and Romania’s David Popovici with Jack Alexy winning the bronze.  

Popovici broke the world record in 2022, with a 46.86 mark and appeared to be the top swimmer in this event. That was until Pan finished with a new record of 46.80 seconds this year. Pan won gold in four events at the World Championship this year. The only thing missing on his resume is an Olympic gold.  

Well, that won’t be missing for long because Pan is the fastest swimmer in the 100m freestyle right now. I expect the 19-year-old to blaze his way to a gold medal and a new world record.  

Bet: Zhanle Pan (CHN) -125 

Men’s 200m Backstroke

• Ryan Murphy (USA) +125  

• Hubert Kos (HUN) +175  

• Hugo Gonzalez (ESP) +400  

• Roman Mityukov (SUI) +1000  

• Oleksandr Zheltiakov (UKR) +1000  

• Jackson Jones (USA) +1000 

 
Murphy took the silver in this event at Tokyo, which was a fall from grace as he won the gold in this event at Rio in 2016. The American is looking to get back to the top of the mountain in this event and win gold at the Paris Games. Currently, he’s the top male swimmer at the 200m backstroke and the first American to compete in the 100m and 200m backstroke double for three straight Olympics.  

Hubert Kos stunned the sport when he beat Murphy at the 2023 Worlds for this event. The two men have not faced each other this season, so Paris will be their first head-to-head battle of 2024. 

With that said, Murphy looks to be in great form for the backstroke at both distances. His U.S. Trials time was fantastic and I expect him to continue that trend.  

On the biggest stage of them all, I expect the American to reclaim the gold medal that alluded him in Tokyo. Look for Kos to get silver and Hugo Gonzalez to get bronze.  

Bet: Ryan Murphy (USA) +125 

Men’s 200m Breaststroke

• Matt Fallon (USA) +200  

• Zac Stubblety-Cook (AUS) +200  

• Leon Marchand (FRA) +350  

• Ippei Watanabe (JPN) +400 

Matt Fallon and Zac Stubblety-Cook come into this event with the same odds. Not far behind them are Leon Marchand and Ippei Watanabe. This field is shaping up to be a highly competitive battle between the four men.  

Leon Marchand has won multiple NCAA Championships in this event, but his bread and butter is the 400 IM which he should easily win gold. I think a podium finish is in reach for the French swimmer in the 200m breast, but it won’t be the gold. His ceiling is the silver, but probably the bronze.  

More than likely, Matt Fallon edges out Marchand for the silver. The American record holder in this event smashed the competition at the U.S. Trials. His 2:06.54 mark is the fastest time this year.  

Stubblety-Cook is not only a former world record holder in this event, but he also won gold in the Tokyo Games for the 200m breaststroke. I believe the Australian has one last run in him for another gold medal. I’m taking Stubblety-Cook to repeat as the gold medal winner. 

Bet: Zac Stubblety-Cook (AUS) +200 

Men’s 200m Freestyle

• David Popovici (ROU) -300 

• Lukas Martens (GER) +450 

• Matt Richards (GBR) +650 

• Sunwoo Hwang (KOR) +800 

• Zhanle Pan (CHN) +1200 

• Duncan Scott (GBR) +1400 

David Popovici is a large betting favorite for this event after finishing 4^th in Tokyo. He scored another European title this year as he put up the 5^th fastest time ever in this event. In fact, Popovici holds the 4^th and 5^th fastest times, still roughly one second behind Paul Biedermann’s world record time of 1:42.  

Lukas Martens is a full second behind Popovici for best times this year. However, he should still end up winning the silver medal in this event. Spoiler alert: I have Martens winning the 400m freestyle gold at the Paris Olympics.  

Matt Richards has put up respectable times this year along with Sunwoo Hwang, but neither man has been able to best Popovici’s best mark of 2024. Don’t rule out Pan Zhanle either. Although he’s got a better chance at winning gold in the 100m freestyle, Pan still has enough speed and power to fight for the podium in Paris.  

With that said, it’s hard to bet against Popovici in this event. When at his best, the Romanian swimmer is a level above the rest. We’ll see that in Paris.  

Bet: David Popovici (ROU) -300 

Men’s 200m Individual Medley

• Wang Shun (CHN) +125  

• Leon Marchand (FRA) +180  

• Carson Foster (USA) +450  

• Duncan Scott (GBR) +550  

• Shaine Casas (USA) +900 

Wang Shun is the reigning Olympic champ for this event having won gold at the Tokyo Olympics. This will be his 4^th Olympic appearance and the Chinese swimmer appears to be defying age with his strong swimming times. He’s crushing the field in 2024.  

However, France’s Leon Marchand is one of the best men’s IM swimmers at the 200 and 400m distances. In fact, he’s won multiple NCAA titles and World Championships in these events. His personal best mark is still slightly faster than Shun’s in the 200m IM.  

Marchand has yet to win a gold medal at the Olympics, but that will all change in Paris. I believe the 22-year-old is going make his mark on the Summer Olympics by winning multiple gold medals, and that starts by edging out Shun for the gold in the 200m IM.  

Bet: Leon Marchand (FRA) +180 

Men’s 400m Freestyle

• Lukas Martens (GER) +125 

• Samuel Short (AUS) +175 

• Eli Winnington (AUS) +250 

• Woomin Kim (KOR) +800 

• Oliver Klement (GER) +1200 

• Felix Auboeck (AUT) +2000 

Unlike most of the other men’s swimming events, the 400m freestyle features mostly newcomers. Only Winnington and Smith have ever won an Olympic medal and those were both bronze. Keep in mind, none of the Tokyo swimmers broke the 3:43 mark.  

However, since then, the times have gotten faster and some pundits believe that the world record, set during the suit era, could be broken at the Paris Olympics.  

Ahmed Hafnaoui is the reigning gold medalist in this event. He was second at the Worlds with a 3:40:70 mark, coming in just behind Sam Short at 3:40:60. Lukas Martens was third at 3:42:20. However, Martens just did a 3:40:33 at the German Championships in April, which makes him the fastest among the competitors.  

Kim Woomin is putting up times that slot him in as the fourth fastest man of the field. Although his odds have better value, I doubt that he will finish on the podium.  

I wouldn’t fault you for taking Short in this event, but I like Martens’ speed and form heading into Paris. I think he will threaten the world record and take home the gold medal.  

Bet: Lukas Martens (GER) +125 

Men’s 400m Individual Medley

• Leon Marchand (FRA) -500 

• Carson Foster (USA) +450 

• Daiya Seto (JPN) +900 

• Chase Kalisz (USA) +1200 

• Max Litchfield (GBR) +1200 

• Lewis Clareburt (NZL) +1400 

When it comes to the men’s 400m IM, it’s Leon Marchand’s world and the rest of the competition is just living in it. Not only is he the two-time defending world champion at this event, but he smashed Michael Phelps’ world record by over a second. And, Marchand is the only man under the 4:03 mark.  

When he won the World’s last year, Carson Foster and Daiya Seto were four and seven seconds behind him. It’s quite possible that we see a similar result in the Paris Olympics where Marchand wins by a few seconds. I doubt he breaks the world record again, but another sub-4:03 result would be outstanding. 

Marchand will get the gold, while Foster edges out Seto for the silver.  

Bet: Leon Marchand (FRA) -500 

Men’s 800m Freestyle

• Daniel Wiffen (IRL) +210 

• Bobby Finke (USA) +250 

• Samuel Short (AUS) +250 

• Eli Winnington (AUS) +500 

• Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) +900 

• Sven Schwarz (GER) +900 

• Florian Wellbrock (GER) +1100 

• Kristof Rasovszky (HUN) +2500 

Bobby Finke won the 800m gold at Tokyo coming on strong in the end to pick up a surprising victory. He captured the 800m and 1500m gold medals in the Tokyo Games and aims to do so again. However, this time, I think he’s going to have difficulty winning gold for the 800m. I like his chances in the 1500m better as Daniel Wiffen has come on strong in this event over the last year.  

Wiffen was in Tokyo as well, but failed to do anything of substance. He was 14^th in this event. However, Wiffen is at the top of the rankings for both 800m and 1500m events. He won gold for both events in Doha this year after two fourths at Fukuoka last year. Additionally, Wiffen set the world record for the 800m last year as well.  

I think the battle will be for the silver with Finke, Short and Winnington all coming close to each other’s times. With that said, Wiffen looks like the fastest 800m swimmer right now and offers great value with his odds. As much as I want to pick Finke, I just don’t see the American winning the double gold again. I peg him for the 1500m and Wiffen for the 800m.  

Bet: Daniel Wiffen (IRL) +210 

Men’s 1500m Freestyle

• Bobby Finke (USA) +125  

• Daniel Wiffen (IRL) +225  

• Florian Wellbrock (GER) +350  

• Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) +800  

• Samuel Short (AUS) +1600 

It’s been quite remarkable to see how fast these times are for the 1500m freestyle. Since the Tokyo Olympics, most of the swimmers in this event have posted times faster than Bobby Finke’s gold medal winning time of 14:39.65. That’s insane.  

With Finke’s biggest rival not participating in this event, Ahmed Hafnaoui, the American should have a solid shot at winning gold again.  

Daniel Wiffen is coming on strong in his career, but he’s still a few seconds behind Finke’s top marks. Patrinieri and Short are also strong swimmers who can post fast times. However, Short’s best event is the 800m and Paltrinieri hasn’t been the same over the last year.  

The reality is that the 1500m freestyle is Finke’s to lose. His personal best time is over two seconds faster than Wiffen’s personal best and a second better than Patlrinieri. Fink’s modest season best time is better than most of the field except for Wiffen. The American should take home the gold by a second or more over Wiffen who will get silver. The battle for bronze will be intense.  

Bet: Bobby Finke (USA) +125