2024 Presidential Debate Odds and Predictions

After some hemming and hawing from both sides, it’s looking as though Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will finally hit the debate stage together. The two campaigns have reportedly agreed to a debate on September 10th to be televised by ABC. Trump had originally agreed to the debate against President Joe Biden, but temporarily withdrew from the event after Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket last month.

However, Trump announced at a news conference that his campaign has agreed to 3 debates, the other 2 of which will be broadcast by Fox and NBC. The Harris campaign has yet to agree to the other dates, but we know the two candidates will share the stage on September 10th. The venue for the event has yet to be determined.

Online sportsbooks have already posted debate props for the first Harris-Trump showdown. How should you wager on what will be the first head-to-head clash between the 2024 presidential election candidates?

Presidential Debate Odds

Debate Winner Odds

• Kamala Harris: -250
• Donald Trump: +185

The first prop we’ll break down is which candidate will be deemed the winner. Winning a debate is hardly quantifiable or scientific, of course. It’s largely subjective. Your ultra-MAGA uncle may have a different opinion than you have about the winner.

For this prop, Bovada specifies that the winner will be determined according to the first poll of debate viewers produced by either ABC News for FiveThirtyEight. If neither outlet publishes a poll by September 20th, Bovada says it will “consult other credible pollsters to form a final decision.”

Back on June 27th, Trump and Joe Biden shared the debate stage. Biden’s performance was so horrific in that event that it ultimately led to his decision to drop out of the race entirely. FiveThirtyEight’s poll said that 60% of viewers deemed Trump as the winner, while just 20.8% concluded Biden fared better on the stage that night.

The odds to win the next debate heavily favor Kamala Harris, and for good reason. Harris is known for her sharp, prosecutorial debate style, which she honed during her time as California’s Attorney General and later in the US Senate. Her ability to dissect arguments and deliver concise, impactful responses makes her a formidable opponent in any debate setting. Additionally, public sentiment often leans favorably towards her when she presents herself as a composed, rational figure—highly valued traits in a debate setting. The odds reflect an expectation that she will outperform Trump, especially among mainstream voters and media talking heads.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, is known for his unconventional and often bombastic debate performances. While his style is divisive, it has a significant appeal to his base, who view his aggression and bluntness as strengths. Trump’s odds at +185 suggest that while he’s not the favorite, there’s a substantial chance he could sway enough opinion to be declared the winner. His unpredictable nature means that he could land a few effective attacks on Harris, particularly if he can capitalize on any perceived weaknesses or mistakes she makes during the debate.

While Harris’ 2020 election campaign was ultimately short-lived, she did perform well in debates against other Democratic hopefuls. Arguably the most memorable moment in her entire campaign occurred when she directly challenged Biden about his record on busing and other race issues.

The critical factor here lies in how the post-debate polling is conducted. If it’s based on broader public opinion, Harris’s advantage is clear, especially given her appeal to a wider audience. However, if Trump manages to energize his base with a standout performance, and if that base turns out in full force in polling, the result could swing in his favor. Thus, while Harris is the safer bet, those looking for value might consider Trump, particularly if they believe the debate could lean heavily into issues where he feels more comfortable.

Bet: Donald Trump (+180)

First State Mentioned by Either Harris or Trump

• California: +400
• Pennsylvania: +400
• Georgia: +500
• Minnesota: +600
• Wisconsin: +600
• Arizona: +700
• New York: +700
• Florida: +800
• Michigan: +1200
• North Carolina: +1200
• Nevada: +2000

California and Pennsylvania are co-favorites at +400 to be the first states mentioned at the debate. Both states have compelling reasons to be mentioned early. California, as Kamala Harris’s home state, is an obvious contender. Harris could invoke California as a model for successful progressive policies or to discuss her own accomplishments during her tenure as Attorney General. Given her deep connections to the state, it wouldn’t be surprising for her to reference it early in her opening remarks or in response to a question about domestic policy.

This could go the other way, too, of course. One of the primary GOP talking points is that Harris is a “San Francisco liberal,” which is meant to imply that her platforms and beliefs are too left-leaning to appeal to the general American electorate.

Pennsylvania, however, is equally likely to be mentioned, especially by Trump. As a key battleground state, Pennsylvania has been at the heart of numerous election battles, including the contentious 2020 Presidential Election. Trump often references Pennsylvania when discussing election integrity and voter demographics, making it a likely candidate for early mention, particularly if the debate touches on issues related to the election process or manufacturing.

Pennsylvania is also arguably the most important state from an Electoral College standpoint. While both candidates do have viable paths to victory even if they lose the Keystone State, the winner of the state’s 19 electoral votes has a much clearer path to clearing the 270-vote threshold.

Other states like Georgia and Florida are also in the running. Georgia, having flipped blue in the 2020 election for the first time in decades, could be cited by either candidate as a symbol of changing political tides. Florida is Trump’s adopted home state. While Harris has an outside shot of flipping the Sunshine State blue, polls still favor Trump to win it for the third straight presidential election.

Given these considerations, California at +400 presents solid value due to Harris’s connection, while Pennsylvania is a close second due to its significance to both parties.

Considering we don’t have a confirmed venue for the debate yet, this one could be subject to change. The first debate was held in Atlanta, while it would be a surprise if the next one won’t also be held in a key battleground like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Bet: California (+400)

Will Harris and Trump Shake Hands?

• Yes: +300
• No: -450

The handshake prop bet is a fascinating one, as it reflects the broader political and social dynamics at play in 2024. Traditionally, shaking hands before or after a debate is a time-honored gesture of respect and civility. However, in today’s highly polarized environment, a handshake between Trump and Harris is far from guaranteed. The “No” at -450 reflects this expectation, as both candidates may wish to avoid the physical interaction for various reasons.

Take the previous Trump-Biden debate as an example. The candidates declined to shake hands before or after the debate ended. Biden eventually walked over and shook the hands of the CNN moderators after the debate, while Trump simply walked off the stage by himself.

From Harris’s perspective, not shaking hands could be a strategic move to distance herself from Trump, both physically and symbolically. By avoiding the handshake, she could subtly communicate that she refuses to engage in the kind of politics Trump represents.

Trump, on the other hand, has historically been known for his unconventional greetings—ranging from aggressive handshakes to outright refusals. Given his track record, it wouldn’t be surprising if he chose to forgo the handshake, either to emphasize his disdain for political norms or as a calculated move to throw Harris off balance. Alternatively, Trump could also initiate the handshake to portray himself as the bigger person, turning the situation into a win-win for him regardless of Harris’s response. That said, Trump literally never takes the high road on anything.

The odds favoring “No” seem justified given the current political climate and the personalities involved. However, there’s always the possibility that both candidates could surprise viewers by opting for a traditional handshake, especially if either wants to soften their image or appeal to undecided voters who yearn for a return to civility. The “Yes” at +300 provides a decent payout for those who believe in the power of political theater or expect a calculated move to demonstrate bipartisanship.

There was talk about both sides needing to tamp down the heated rhetoric after the assassination attempt on Trump’s life back on July 13th. While that was only a month ago, it might as well be ancient history by now. Both sides have already ditched that notion.

Bet: No (-450)

Color of Trump’s Tie

• Red: -3000
• Blue: +800
• Silver/Grey: +1000
• Green: +1500
• Pink/Purple: +1500
• Gold: +2000
• Brown: +3000
• Orange/Peach: +3000
• No Tie: +5000
• Yellow: +5000
• White/Cream: +8000
• Bow Tie: +10000
• Full Stars And Stripes Design: +2000
• Black: +6000

Donald Trump’s tie color is more than just a fashion choice; it’s a signal, a part of his branding, and sometimes even a form of nonverbal communication. Historically, Trump has favored red ties, particularly during significant public appearances, debates, and rallies. The red tie has become synonymous with his persona, representing power, boldness, and his affiliation with the Republican Party. The odds at -3000 reflect this strong association, making red the overwhelming favorite.

However, there are instances where Trump has deviated from the red tie. A blue tie, while still in the conservative palette, suggests a more bipartisan or conciliatory tone, and Trump has worn blue ties in situations where he wanted to appear more statesmanlike or to soften his image slightly. The +800 odds for blue suggest that while it’s not the likeliest choice, it’s a reasonable bet if Trump wants to shift his messaging during the debate.

Trump is so synonymous with wearing a red tie that several of his supporters dressed up similarly to support him during his trial in New York earlier this summer:

Other options like silver/grey (+1000) and full stars and stripes design (+2000) are less common but not out of the realm of possibility. A silver or grey tie could be chosen to convey seriousness and neutrality, particularly if Trump aims to appeal to undecided voters or appear above the political fray. The stars and stripes tie would be a more flamboyant choice, possibly worn if Trump wants to emphasize his patriotism and appeal to his base.

Given these considerations, while red is almost a lock, the value in a bet on blue at +800 is worth considering, especially if Trump’s advisors suggest he should project a more unifying image during the debate. The stars and stripes option at +2000 is a fun long shot, especially if you think Trump might go for a more dramatic look.

Bet: Blue (+800)

Color of Harris’ Outfit

• Blue: EVEN
• Black: +250
• Silver/Grey: +700
• Pink/Purple: +900
• Red/Burgundy: +900
• Brown/Beige: +1500
• Green: +1800
• Orange/Peach: +3000
• Yellow: +5000
• White/Cream: +1200
• Gold: +2500
• Full Stars and Stripes Design: +10000

Kamala Harris’s wardrobe choices are often deliberate, reflecting both her personal style and the message she wants to convey. Blue, the color most associated with the Democratic Party, is the even favorite, as it’s a logical choice for Harris in a high-stakes debate. Wearing blue would align her visually with her party’s identity and reinforce her role as a leading Democrat. The fact that it’s the favorite speaks to its symbolism and its frequent use in a political setting

Black, at +250, is another strong contender. Black is a powerful, authoritative color, often worn to project seriousness and gravitas. If Harris wants to emphasize her command of the issues or present herself as a strong leader, black would be an appropriate choice. It’s also versatile, making it a practical option for a televised debate where presentation is key.

Beyond these, white/cream at +1200 offers interesting value. White has historically been worn by women in politics as a nod to the suffragette movement, symbolizing purity, virtue, and the long fight for women’s rights. Harris has worn white during significant moments in her career, including her Vice Presidential acceptance speech. If she wants to evoke this symbolism, white could be a powerful and meaningful choice, though the odds suggest it’s less likely. Remember the media outrage that occurred when Barack Obama had the audacity to wear a tan suit? The horror!

Other colors like pink/purple (+900) or green (+1800) would be more unconventional choices, potentially signaling a desire to stand out or to connect with younger, more fashion-conscious voters. However, these are less likely given the traditional and serious nature of debate attire.

In terms of value, while blue is a safe and likely bet, black offers a slightly better return with a strong chance of being the color of choice. For those looking for a more symbolic or statement-making option, white/cream at +1200 could yield a surprising payout if Harris opts to make a historic gesture.

Bet: Black (+250)