Week 16 NFL Sunday Night Football Odds: Tampa Bay vs. Dallas

The Week 16 Sunday Night Football matchup features two teams with varying degrees of Playoff potential as the Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC late-season showdown.

The Buccaneers are coming off a stellar victory at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. In fact, it was a statement win where Tampa Bay declared that they’re not giving up the NFC South division lead without a serious fight.

Like the Bucs, Los Angeles is also in the thick of the Playoff race and have been a force for most of the season. Tampa Bay went into LA and handed the Chargers their worst loss of the season. The Bucs have won four games in a row and currently hold a one-game lead in the NFC South.

The Cowboys have remained in the fight despite being without Dak Prescott since early-November. You have to give credit to this team for continuing to play hard even after their franchise quarterback went down, This was in addition to injuries on the defense and coaching concerns.

Yet, the Cowboys climbed back into the Wild Card hunt; albeit just mathematically. The reality is that Dallas needs to win out and for a number of teams to lose their remaining games. That’s just not going to happen.

Cooper Rush has done a solid job in place of Prescott, but the Cowboys dug themselves to deep of a hole to climb out of it even with a win this weekend. At this point, it’s all about Dallas playing for pride and spoiling the hopes of other teams.

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 16 NFL Predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys. 

What Channel Is Sunday Night Football On?

• Sunday Night Football Channel: NBC and Peacock
• Sunday Night Football Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
• Sunday Night Football Announcers: Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth

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Sunday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for SNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

During the summer, preseason and early portions of the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys were large betting favorites to win this game. They opened at -218 odds and have dropped like an anchor in the ocean. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened at +180 odds and went as high as +185 before their migration towards the favorite status.

With the season 75% of the way done, the roles for this game have flipped. The Buccaneers are now the large betting favorites with odds ranging from -200 to -220. The Cowboys are the sizable underdogs with odds ranging from +165 to +185.

Just like with the moneyline, the spread also opened in favor of the Cowboys and it went as high as -5 points. Since then, Dallas’ spread nosedived to the current line of +4 points. Some sportsbooks have it listed at +/- 4.5 points which I always prefer to get that half if it’s in favor of the team I think covers.

The Total opened at 46.5 points. It went as high as 49.5 total points before settling at the current Over/Under of 48.5 points.

Last week, we were high on the Green Bay Packers rolling into Seattle and beating the Seahawks:

“With that in mind, I’m leaning towards the Packers to win this game outright. They’re 5-1 SU in the last six meetings versus Seattle and 7-2 SU over their last nine games. Those two losses came against the Lions, which the Seahawks are not on that level.

I also like the Packers to cover the spread, especially under three points. Green Bay is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Seattle. Additionally, they’re 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus NFC West teams. Surprisingly, the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.”

The Packers ended up blowing out the Seahawks and cruised to the finish line. This made our wagers a low-key night of football action.

For the season, our Sunday Night Football record is 12-3 and we’re now riding an eight-game winning streak into this weekend’s action. In fact, we haven’t lost since the Jets laid an egg in Pittsburgh two months ago. I still resent the Jets for this performance as they also cost me my fantasy football game that weekend

With that said, if you are excited about what we’re doing with our Sunday Night Football picks then check out our Handicapping Monthly Service. This low-cost monthly membership gives you access to some of the top handicappers and just about every sport including the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, MLB and more.

Sunday Night Football Odds

The following Sunday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys have played against each other 22 total times, which includes three postseason matchups. In fact, their last head-to-head meeting came in the NFC Wild Card game during January 2023, which the Cowboys won.

Dallas holds the series lead with a 16-6 all-time mark. They’ve also won eight of the last 11 matchups. Dallas has dominated at home versus the Buccaneers with a 12-2 record. Yet, The Bucs did win their last trip to Dallas in 2022, but that was when they had Tom Brady.

Sunday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys betting trends:

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

• Dallas is 7-3 SU in last 10 games
• Dallas is 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 meetings
• Under is 8-2 in last 10 contests
• Under is 5-0 in last five games at Dallas

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

• 4-1 SU in last five games
• 11-5 SU in last 16 NFC games
• 8-1 SU in last nine December games
• 5-1 ATS in last six games
• 4-1 ATS in last five NFC East games
• Over is 5-1 in last six road games

Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• 3-6 SU in last nine games
• 14-4 SU in last 18 December games
• 4-2 SU in last six Week 16 games
• 4-9 ATS in last 13 games
• 1-8 ATS in last nine home games
• 7-3 ATS in last 10 NFC South games
• Over is 8-3 in last 11 NFC games

Sunday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our Sunday Night Football NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Buccaneers Offense vs. Cowboys Defense

Tampa’s offense has bee surprisingly good this season. In fact, it’s actually been one of the best in the NFL. Don’t believe me? Well, let’s check out the following stats:

The Bucs are fourth in points scored per game (28.8 ppg), third in total yards per game (388.4 ypg), third in 3^rd down conversions (48.28%), sixth in red zone TD rate (65.45%), fifth in TDs per game (3.4), fourth in rushing yards (144.4 ypg), and fourth in passing yards (244 ypg).

Bottome line, this offense is a Top 5 unite across the board and falls behind the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills for most categories. That’s an incredible group of teams to be associated with when it comes to offensive success this season.

Tampa’s offense needs to accomplish two things in order to lead the Bucs to victory. And, both things involve their offensive line.

The first thing is that Tampa Bay needs to run the ball at least 30 times this game. They average 27.8 carries per game, but they need to surpass that against this Cowboys pass rush.

Tampa averages 144.4 ypg on the ground and Dallas allows the third most rushing yards per game at 136.1 ypg. I expect the duo of White and Irving to steamroll this Dallas defense.

The second thing that Tampa’s offensive line needs to do is protect Baker Mayfield. The Cowboys have the second best pass rush in the league, according to sack rate.

With that said, I believe that Mayfield will throw short passes, dump off to the backs especially White, and the Bucs will lean on the run to win this in-game matchup.

Buccaneers Defense vs. Cowboys Offense

The Cowboys offense was supposed to fall off a cliff after Prescott went in the injured reserve. However, backup QB Cooper Rush has done a decent job at keeping this unit moving along.

Dallas rediscovered a running game over the last three weeks. However, I must caution you that their success was against three of the worst rushing defenses in the league: Panthers, Bengals, and Giants.

Tampa only allows 109.2 rushing yards per game and I fully expect this unit to stop Rico Dowdle who is coming off the best three-game stretch of his career.  

Where Dallas could find some success is in throwing the ball. Rush hasn’t been lights out with throwing the ball over the last three weeks, but part of that was by design as they were very effective running the ball. Tampa has a leaky secondary as they give up the third most passing yards in the league at 247.7 ypg.

The Bucs’ secondary has been so bad that they even made Kirk Cousins look like a Pro Bowler in the two games they played against each other. Those happened to be the only two games that Cousins has looked good in, as Tampa’s divisional rival the Atlanta Falcons benched the veteran QB this week due to his struggles on the year.

Who Wins SNF: Buccaneers or Cowboys?

Yes, Dallas has owned this series against the Buccaneers especially in their home stadium. However, that’s the past and this year’s Cowboys team is not as good as Tampa Bay is. The Bucs will win this game outright and cover the spread as well.

Dallas is just 1-6 SU in home games this year. Their lone win was against the Giants three games ago. Tampa is far better than the Giants. In fact, they beat the Giants 30-7 just four days prior to Dallas winning 27-20 on Thanksgiving.

Furthermore, Tampa Bay is 11-5 SU in their last 16 NFC games, 4-1 SU in their last five games, 5-2 SU in their road games this year, and 8-1 in their last nine games played during the month of December. Dallas is 3-6 SU in their last nine games.

The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus the NFC East division. Dallas is 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.

I don’t like the Total for this game as Tampa’s defense could easily give up 24 or more points. And, they could easily hold an opponent to 17 or less. They’re far too inconsistent for my liking.

With that said, I’m taking Baker Mayfield to roll into the “Big D”, have a big performance, get the big “W”, and watching his backfield mates of Irving and White have big games as well.

Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-200), Buccaneers -4 (-110)

Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Game and Player Prop bets:

Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (-120)

On the season, Bucky Irving has six rushing touchdowns. Yet, he’s tallied three in the last five games. You can’t really count the Raiders game two weeks ago because Irving left early due to an injury. So, it’s really three TDs in the last four games.

The Bucs score 1.0 rushing TDs per game and 3.4 total TDs per game. The Cowboys give up 3.1 TDs per game which is the 4^th most in the league. They also give up the most rushing TDs per game (1.6).

I think Irving scores at least once this weekend versus the Cowboys. He’s too talented not to.

Bet: Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (-120)

Bucky Irving Rushing Yards

• Over 58.5 yards (-110)
• Under 58.5 yards (-110)

In addition to scoring at least one TD on Sunday Night Football, I also think that Irving is going to have a big game on the ground. When healthy, Irving has proven to be Tampa Bay’s best running back.

He’s averaging 60.9 rushing yards per game compared to White’s 44.1 ypg. And yet, Irving only has 17 more carries than White, but sports a 5.6 yards per carry which is an elite level.  

Since Irving has become the starting back five games ago, he’s tallied 73 or more rushing yards in all of those games except the Raiders game two weeks ago when he left early due to an injury.

Irving returned last weekend to rush for 117 yards against the Chargers. Prior to the Raiders game, he put up 152 rushing yards versus the Panthers who are just as bad against the run as the Cowboys are.

As long as Irving gets at least 13-15 carries, he’s going to easily eclipse 60 rushing yards. Take the Over.

Bet: Over 58.5 yards (-110)

Cooper Rush Passing Yards

• Over 234.5 yards (-110)
• Under 234.5 yards (-110)

Since taking over for Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush has had his fare share of ups and downs. One thing he’s done well tis take care of the ball. Rush has 10 passing TDs to just 3 interceptions. But, he’s also had some clunkers out there as well.

As for this weekend’s matchup, I like for Rush to surpass 235 passing yards, which he has done in two of his six starts. The Bucs have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and Rush should have plenty of opportunities for success.

Bet: Over 234.5 yards (-110)

Cooper Rush Passing Attempts

• Over 34.5 attempts (-110)
• Under 34.5 attempts (-110)

Rush has thrown for 35 more attempts in two of his last five games. Keep in mind, the last three were against bad run defenses. With that said, Rush should have ample opportunity to throw the ball this weekend. Tampa can run up the score, which means Dallas will have to play from behind.

Additionally, Tampa’s pass defense is one of the worst in the leagues. So, Rush could be throwing the ball around just like he did against Houston a month ago. In that game, Rush threw 55 times and accumulated 354 passing yards.

Bet: Over 34.5 attempts (-110)

Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards

• Over 71.5 yards (-110)
• Under 71.5 yards (-110)

I think this prop bet has missed the mark. Prior to Rico Dowdle’s recent success, he only went over 71 rushing yards in three of the previous 10 games. So, that’s six of his 13 total games where he’s gone over this mark. Sure, he’s run for 100+ yards in three straight games, but Tampa has a top-notch run defense and they will shut Dowdle down.

Bet: Under 71.5 yards (-110)

Best Bets For Sunday Night Football

The best bets for Sunday Night Football are as follows:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-200)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-110)
• Bucky Irving over 58.5 rushing yards (-110)

I believe that Tampa Bay will go into Dallas and take home a convincing victory. Speaking of home, the Cowboys are just 1-6 SU in home games this season. Even worse, they’re just 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. This team clearly has no home field advantage.

The only team that the Cowboys beat at home this year was their divisional rival the New York Giants. Dallas won that game 27-20 on Thanksgiving. The Buccaneers played the Giants the Sunday prior to Turkey Day and crushed New York by the score of 30 to 7.

The Bucs are coming off a 40-17 throttling of the Chargers in Los Angeles. It was an impressive win over an AFC Wild Card team. Although Dallas is mathematically alive for the postseason, they’re not a Playoff caliber team. And, their Playoff chances come to an end this weekend.

Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in road games this year and they’ve won three away games in a row. They narrowly lost at Kansas City in Week 9. The Chiefs won that game in OT. However, the Bucs played without their top offensive weapons in Godwin and Evans.

The Bucs are 4-1 SU in their last five overall games, 8-1 SU in their last nine December games including 3-0 this year, and 11-5 SU in their last 16 NFC games.

Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last six overall games, 5-1 ATS in their last six away games and 4-1 ATS in their last five NFC East games.

A big reason why I like the Bucs to win this weekend is due to their running game. They’re 4^th in the NFL at 144.4 rushing yards per game. The Dallas Cowboys have the 4^th worst run defense as they allow 136.1 rushing yards per game. Enter Bucky Irving!

The rookie running back has become Tampa’s top ball carrier. He’s averaging 60.0 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. If you don’t include the Raiders game two weeks ago, where he left early due to an injury, Irving has gone over 70 rushing yards in four straight games. He’s surpassed 100 rushing yards in two consecutive games, not including the Raiders matchup.

If healthy, I think Irving can put up 100 rushing yards and a touchdown this weekend.

Sunday Night Football Schedule 

Sunday Night Football Record

The following list is of each team’s all-time record on Sunday Night Football. This also includes postseason games as well: