Week 11 NFL Sunday Night Football Odds: Bengals vs. Chargers

Week 11 features a Sunday Night Football game between two teams jockeying for the final AFC Wild Card spots, along with featuring two of the Top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL as Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers host Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Football fans were treated to an exciting conclusion with the Week 10 SNF matchup as the Detroit Lions kicked a game winning field goal to steal a victory from the Houston Texans. If this week’s SNF can deliver on its potential, then fans and bettors will have a thrilling conclusion to the weekend.

Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals were robbed of a victory against divisional rival Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. The referees were so bad at the end of the game that even longtime TV analyst Al Michaels couldn’t remain impartial about it.

The Chargers were at home last weekend and beat up on a bad football team in the Tennessee Titans. It was the third straight win for Los Angeles as they are putting some breathing room between themselves and the final Wild Card spot.

Currently, the Chargers are 1 ½ games up on the 7^th place Denver Broncos and 2 ½ games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals who both sit at 4-6 as of this writing.

Will the Chargers extend their winning streak to four games in a row or will the Bengals pick up the win that they desperately need?

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 11 NFL Predictions for the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers.

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• Sunday Night Football Channel: NBC and Peacock
• Sunday Night Football Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
• Sunday Night Football Announcers: Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth

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Sunday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for SNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The odds for this SNF game have been close since they opened. At that time, the Bengals were the favorites with -130 odds. The Chargers were +110 underdogs.

These odds didn’t really flip until within the last few weeks as the Chargers extended their lead in the Wild Card race and the Bengals continued to struggle. Currently, the Chargers are -130 favorites but saw their odds as high as -140. Cincy sits at +105 but saw their odds rise as high as +120 with some sportsbooks.

The spread started with the Bengals giving up two points. It slowly flipped by the beginning of November as the Chargers are now favored by 1.5 points.

The Over/Under opened at 45 points, went as low as 43 combined points, and has risen to the current line of 48 total points.

Last week, we picked the Detroit Lions to win the game and cover the 3.5 point spread. Unfortunately, they only won by three points as they picked up the 26-23 victory. If Jared Goff didn’t throw five interceptions for the Lions, it would have been an easy win and cover. We faded the O/U, and rightfully so since it was a push.

Sunday Night Football Odds

The following Sunday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers have played against each other 38 times including two postseason matchups. The Chargers hold a sizable lead in this series with a 23-15 record.

Los Angeles has won four of the last five meetings including three in a row. These two teams last played against each other in 2021. The Chargers won that game by the score of 41-22. It was the first time that Burrow and Herbert played against each other. Both QBs threw for over 300 yards apiece.

LA is 11-7 in the 18 home games versus the Bengals. The last time that the Chargers hosted Cincy was in 2018. Los Angels won that game by the score of 26-21. Cincy has won two of their last three trips to LA.

Sunday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers betting trends:

Bengals vs. Chargers Betting Trends

• Chargers are 6-4 SU in last 10 meetings
• Chargers are 4-1 SU in last five games
• Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 matchups
• Bengals are 5-0 ATS in last five games at Chargers
• Under is 6-1 in last 7 contests

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends

• 1-4 SU in last five November games
• 3-2 SU in Road games this year
• 5-0 ATS in Road games this year
• 4-1 ATS in last five games
• Over is 7-2 in last nine games
• Over is 4-1 in last five AFC games

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends

• 4-1 SU in last five games
• 11-5 SU in last 16 AFC North games
• 4-8 SU in last 12 November games
• 4-1 ATS in last five games
• 7-13 ATS in last 20 November games
• Under is 9-2 in last 11 games
• Under is 12-4 in last 16 AFC games

Sunday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our Sunday Night Football NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Bengals Offense vs. Chargers Defense

This particular in-game matchups features the #6 scoring offense in the Bengals (27.0 ppg) versus the #1 scoring defense in the Chargers (13.1 ppg). Additionally, the Chargers are 6^th in yards allowed at 302.1 ypg.

Yet, LA’s defensive dominance doesn’t stop there. The Chargers are also Top 10 against the run and pass. Los Angeles ranks 9^th in both categories as they only give up 110.6 rushing yards per game and 191.6 passing yards per game.

The Bengals have the 4^th worst rushing offense in the league at just 89.7 ypg. Although they’ve tried to improve their backfield with a trade for Khalil Herbert, this Cincy running game is atrocious. And, as we’ve seen all season long, it puts more pressure on Burrow.

Burrow is definitely capable of handling the pressure. However, it also makes Cincy’s offense one-dimensional. Then, when u add injuries to key players like wide receiver Tee Higgins, the offense becomes even more limited. Higgins is expected to play this game as of this writing, which will definitely help this team. He’s missed half of the games this season so far.

Another area of advantage for the Chargers defense is that they rank 3^rd in the NFL at 3.4 sacks per game. That’s just 0.2 sacks per game less than the Giants. However, the Chargers have the best sack rate in home games at 4.8 sacks per game.

The Bengals give up 2.6 sacks per game on the road and just 2.0 at home. So, I expect this Chargers defense to get after Burrow especially in obvious passing downs.

Look for LA to double team Cincy receiver Ja’Marr Chase with safety help. This will limit the deep throws and force Burrow to take the underneath routes.

It’s going to take a near-perfect outing by this Bengals offense to beat the Chargers defense on the road this weekend.

Chargers Offense vs. Bengals Defense

Cincy’s defense isn’t half as good as the Chargers. In fact, they rank in the bottom half of the league for most major statistical categories. Cincy allows 26.2 ppg (26^th) and 347.5 total yards per game (23^rd). But this defense is awful on third downs as they allow the 4^th highest conversion at 45.8%.

So, not only do they give up a lot of points and yards, the Bengals defense can’t get off the field on third downs which means that opposing offense are able to extend drives and also win the time of possession battle.

The Chargers are a run first team. They rank 6^th in the NFL at 49.91% run plays. However, they only average 117.9 rushing yards per game which ranks them 19^th overall. The Bengals are 17^th against the run as they allow 127.3 ypg. This matchup is going to be key in deciding the outcome of the game.

If the Chargers can establish the run, then they control the clock, move the chains, open up their Play Action passing, and remain more balanced. However, if the Bengals can limit the running game, then they have a real shot at keep LA below their 20.7 ppg average.

LA’s passing attack ranks 22^nd at 196.4 ypg and the Bengals give up 220.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 23^rd overall. The Chargers only allow 1.5 sacks per game at home and the Bengals only average 1.6 sacks per game on the road.

If the Chargers can continue the trend of protecting Herbert, while winning the battle in the trenches, then they have a real shot at winning this game outright and covering the spread.

Who Wins SNF: Bengals or Chargers?

Higgins is trending in the right direction to play for the Bengals this weekend and that’s going to be a huge factor for this game. If he plays then this team is a much better squad on offense as teams can’t fully double cover Chase. If they do, then Higgins will make them pay.

With that said, I have a hard time finding reasons to think that Cincy will win. Even with Higgins, this team still has no running game. The Chargers have an elite defense that will pressure and sack Burrow.

Offensively, LA can run the ball on Cincy and find success through the air as well. The Bengals don’t generate much pressure, so it’s hard to think that Herbert will be under much duress. Then, when they add play action passing, this LA offense will be tough for the Bengals to stop.

With or without Higgins, I like the Chargers to win this matchup at home. They’re 3-1 at home on the season. Two of the Bengals road wins came against the Browns and Giants. LA is much better than both of those teams.

I like the Chargers moneyline as they’ve gone 4-1 in their last five games. More impressively, they are 11-5 in their last 16 games against AFC North teams. The Bengals are 1-4 in their last five November games.

The Bengals have been strong against the spread this season on the road. However, the line is just 1.5 in favor of the Chargers and I expect this number to shift if Higgins is playing. We could be looking at an Even matchup or +/- 1 point either way. With that said, I’m still taking the Chargers.

I also like the Under for this matchup as well. The Chargers have not given up more than 17 points in their last five games. Furthermore, the Under is 9-2 in the last 11 games for Los Angeles. Additionally, in the Chargers last 16 games versus AFC teams, the Under is 12-4. Lastly, the Under is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

I’m thinking we get a 24 to 20 win for the Chargers or even something like 20 to 17 where Cincy is well below their season average in points.

Bet: Los Angeles Chargers (-125), Chargers -1.5 (-110), Under 48 total points (-110)

Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers Game and Player Prop bets:

JK Dobbins Anytime Touchdown -138

In nine games, JK Dobbins has rushing touchdowns. He has three rushing touchdowns in his last three games. The Bengals allow 3.2 TDs per game which is the 3^rd highest mark in the league.

Digging deeper, we see that the Bengals give up 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game which is the 5^th most allowed in the NFL.

So, to sum it up, Cincy gives up 26.2 ppg, 3.2 touchdowns per game, and 1.3 rushing TDs per game. That’s a recipe for Dobbins to score at least one TD in this matchup.

Bet: JK Dobbins Anytime Touchdown -138

Joe Burrow Passing Yards

• Over 267.5 yards (-110)
• Under 267.5 yards (-110)

When Joe Burrow is on his A-game, there’s not a better passing QB in the league. Over 10 games played so far, Burrow has 2,672 passing yards which equates to 267.2 ypg.

Burrow threw for 428 yards against the Ravens in Week 10 on TNF. However, he’s only eclipsed the 267 yard mark in two other games. The first time came in Week 3 versus Washington where he finished with 324 yards. The second time came against the Ravens in Week 5 where he three for 392 yards.

Think about that for a second. Burrow tallied 1,144 passing yards in those three games. That’s close to half of his passing yards on the season. And, those two defenses are bad against the pass. Baltimore has the worst pass defense in the league.

If you throw out those three games, Burrow hasn’t even hit the 260 yard mark in any other game. The Chargers are 9^th in the league against the pass as they allow only 191.6 passing yards per game.

Not even Patrick Mahomes surpassed the 250 yard mark against the Chargers this season.

With that said, I like the Under for this prop bet. I don’t see Burrow having a big game in passing yards. I expect this to be one of those games where there aren’t many possessions or long drives. Turnovers and special teams will be huge in a game like this. Along with field position.

Bet: Under 267.5 yards (-110)

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts

• Over 37.5 yards (-110)
• Under 37.5 yards (-110)

Sticking with Burrow for this matchup, he is averaging 35.8 pass attempts per game. Yet, if you throw out his three games versus the Ravens and Commanders, then Burrow has only gone over this mark one other time. He threw 39 attempts against the Raiders.

I don’t see the Bengals having many offensive possessions in this game. And, if they do, I don’t see Burrow having enough time to stand in the pocket and throw all game due to the Chargers pension for sacks and an inconsistent Cincy offensive line.

Burrow has thrown for 37 or less attempts in six of his 10 games this year. I expect that trend to continue this weekend has he throws for 35 attempts at the most.

Bet: Under 37.5 yards (-110)

Joe Burrow Passing Touchdowns

• Over 1.5 TDs (-110)
• Under 1.5 TDs (-110)

We’ve taken the Under in the two previous Burrow prop bets, but I like the Over for this one. For the Bengals to score, it will be either field goals or Burrow TD passes. I think we see two of each.

Burrow has thrown for two or more TDs in seven of his 10 games so far. In fact, he’s thrown nine TDs in the last two games alone. The Chargers do not allow many rushing TDs, so the Bengals will have to throw the ball in the red zone to score TDs. That’s not a problem for Cincy as they’re accustomed to this due to a lack of running game.

Bet: Over 1.5 TDs (-110)

Chase Brown Receiving Yards

• Over 27.5 yards (-110)
• Under 27.5 yards (-110)

On the season, Chase Brown has averaged 15 receiving yards per game. Yet, since he’s become the #1 running back and getting most of the touches, Brown has gone over this mark the last two games.

During that span, Brown has averaged seven receptions for 44.5 yards per game. I don’t see the running back finding success running the ball. I also don’t see Cincy being able to throw many deep or intermediate routes.

I feel like this is going to be a dink and dunk game for Burrow and the offense, which bodes well for Brown catching passes out of the backfield. He’s an explosive player as a receiver and he should get at least five receptions against this stingy Chargers defense, which equates to at least 28 receiving yards.

Bet: Over 27.5 yards (-110)

Chase Brown Rushing Yards

• Over 62.5 yards (-110)
• Under 62.5 yards (-110)

On the season, Brown is averaging just 52.1 rushing yards per game. However, he did a lot of that in a split backfield. With that said, Brown only tallied 42 rushing yards last week against a strong run defense in the Ravens.

The Chargers also have a strong run defense that ranks 9^th in the league. Brown has eclipsed this mark in just two of 10 games and I don’t see that happening this weekend.

He might be able to carry the ball 15 times, but it’s going to be a low yard per carry average. Brown and the Bengals will be lucky if he gets over 50 rushing yards.

Bet: Under 62.5 rushing yards (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals Total Field Goals

• Over 1.5 FGs (-110)
• Under 1.5 FGs (-110)

As mentioned above, I think the Bengals score around 20 points this weekend. That equates to two touchdowns and two field goals.

The Chargers are #1 in TDs allowed at just 1.3 TDs per game. This is compared to the Bengals who are 30^th in the league as they allow 3.2 TDs per game.

LA also has the 2^nd best red zone defense as they give up TDs on just 38.89% of the time. The Bengals have the second worst red zone defense as they allow 71.88% touchdowns to opposing teams.

I see Cincy being stifled in the red zone this weekend, which means they will have to settle for field goals. And, that’s if they can even get into the red zone. They may stall out before LA’s 20-yard mark.

Cincy’s Evan McPherson has 13 FGs on the season. He doesn’t get many opportunities because the Bengals are accustomed to scoring TDs. Yet, they’re going up against a tough defense and I expect Cincy to settle for FGs for the majority of the game.

Bet: Over 1.5 FGs (-110)

Best Bets For Sunday Night Football

The best bets for Sunday Night Football are as follows:

• Los Angeles Chargers (-125)
• Joe Burrow under 267.5 passing yards (-110)
• Cincinnati Bengals over 1.5 field goals (-110)

I like the Chargers in this matchup. They’re a strong team at home and feature one of the best defenses in the league. Additionally, they have a reliable running game that will help open up the play action passing.

Cincy gives up over 26 points per game and over 347 total yards per game. This means that the Chargers should be able to move the ball at-will and score on most possessions.

On the flip side, the Chargers defense will stifle the Bengals offense especially in the red zone where they only allow TDs on 38% of the time. That’s the 2^nd best mark in the league. LA allows just 1.3 TDs per game which is the best in the league.

To me, these numbers indicated that the Bengals are going to have to settle for field goals as the Chargers make it hard for anyone to score on them. They lead the NFL in points allowed at 13.1 ppg.

Lastly, I don’t see Joe Burrow having a huge day in passing yards. Outside of his two games against the Ravens and one against the Commanders, Burrow has not even reached 260 passing yards. In fact, nearly half of his passing yards for the season have come in those three games.

The Chargers are 9^th against the pass as they allow roughly 191 passing yards per game. They are third in the league in sacking the QB and even better at home where they lead the league in sacks. The Bengals give up more sacks on the road than they do at home.

Look for Burrow to be limited this weekend as the Chargers smother him all game long and keep a lid on any deep passes.

Sunday Night Football Schedule 

Sunday Night Football Record

The following list is of each team’s all-time record on Sunday Night Football. This also includes postseason games as well: